Download the full version of the textbook now at textbookfull.

com

Mathematics Applied to Engineering and

Management 1st Edition Mangey Ram (Editor)

https://textbookfull.com/product/mathematics-
applied-to-engineering-and-management-1st-edition-
mangey-ram-editor/

Explore and download more textbook at https://textbookfull.com

 Recommended digital products (PDF, EPUB, MOBI) that
you can download immediately if you are interested.

Recent Advances in Mathematics for Engineering

(Mathematical Engineering, Manufacturing, and Management
Sciences) 1st Edition Mangey Ram (Editor)
https://textbookfull.com/product/recent-advances-in-mathematics-for-
engineering-mathematical-engineering-manufacturing-and-management-
sciences-1st-edition-mangey-ram-editor/
textbookfull.com

Mathematics in Engineering Sciences: Novel Theories,

Technologies, and Applications 1st Edition Mangey Ram
(Editor)
https://textbookfull.com/product/mathematics-in-engineering-sciences-
novel-theories-technologies-and-applications-1st-edition-mangey-ram-
editor/
textbookfull.com

Diagnostic Techniques in Industrial Engineering Mangey Ram

https://textbookfull.com/product/diagnostic-techniques-in-industrial-
engineering-mangey-ram/

textbookfull.com

The Palgrave Handbook of Biology and Society 1st Edition

Maurizio Meloni

https://textbookfull.com/product/the-palgrave-handbook-of-biology-and-
society-1st-edition-maurizio-meloni/

textbookfull.com
All in: Why Sustainability Is the Future of Business Chris
Coulter

https://textbookfull.com/product/all-in-why-sustainability-is-the-
future-of-business-chris-coulter/

textbookfull.com

Supporting Life Skills for Young Children with Vision

Impairment and Other Disabilities An Early Years
Habilitation Handbook 1st Edition Fiona Broadley
https://textbookfull.com/product/supporting-life-skills-for-young-
children-with-vision-impairment-and-other-disabilities-an-early-years-
habilitation-handbook-1st-edition-fiona-broadley/
textbookfull.com

Paulo Freire and Transformative Education Alethea Melling

https://textbookfull.com/product/paulo-freire-and-transformative-
education-alethea-melling/

textbookfull.com

Camouflage Markings of the Stuarts in New Zealand Service

1st Edition Jeffrey Plowman

https://textbookfull.com/product/camouflage-markings-of-the-stuarts-
in-new-zealand-service-1st-edition-jeffrey-plowman/

textbookfull.com

The Orthopedic Consult Survival Guide 1st Edition Jonathan

D. Hodax

https://textbookfull.com/product/the-orthopedic-consult-survival-
guide-1st-edition-jonathan-d-hodax/

textbookfull.com
Deadly Morsel Darkly Sweet 5 1st Edition Juliann Whicker

https://textbookfull.com/product/deadly-morsel-darkly-sweet-5-1st-
edition-juliann-whicker/

textbookfull.com
Mathematics Applied
to Engineering and
Management
Mathematical Engineering, Manufacturing,
and Management Sciences
Series Editor: Mangey Ram, Professor, Department of Mathematics;
Computer Science and Engineering, Graphic Era Deemed to be University,
Dehradun, India

The aim of this new book series is to publish the research studies and articles
that contain the latest development and research applied to mathematics
and its applications in the manufacturing and management sciences areas.
Mathematical tools and techniques are the strength of engineering sciences.
They form the common foundation of all novel disciplines as engineering
evolves and develops. The series will include a comprehensive range
of applied mathematics and its application in engineering areas such as
optimization techniques, mathematical modeling and simulation, stochastic
processes and systems engineering, safety-critical system performance,
system safety, system security, high-assurance software architecture and
design, mathematical modeling in environmental safety sciences, finite
element methods, differential equations, and reliability engineering.

Sustainable Procurement in Supply Chain Operations

Edited by Sachin Mangla, Sunil Luthra, Suresh Jakar, Anil Kumar,
and Nirpendra Rana

For more information on this series, please visit: https://www.crcpress.com/

Mathematical-Engineering-Manufacturing-and-Management-Sciences/
book-series/CRCMEMMS
Mathematics Applied
to Engineering and
Management

Edited by
Mangey Ram
S. B. Singh
CRC Press
Taylor & Francis Group
6000 Broken Sound Parkway NW, Suite 300
Boca Raton, FL 33487-2742

© 2020 by Taylor & Francis Group, LLC

CRC Press is an imprint of Taylor & Francis Group, an Informa business

No claim to original U.S. Government works

Printed on acid-free paper

International Standard Book Number-13: 978-0-8153-5804-6 (Hardback)

This book contains information obtained from authentic and highly regarded sources. Reasonable efforts
have been made to publish reliable data and information, but the author and publisher cannot assume
responsibility for the validity of all materials or the consequences of their use. The authors and publishers
have attempted to trace the copyright holders of all material reproduced in this publication and apologize
to copyright holders if permission to publish in this form has not been obtained. If any copyright material
has not been acknowledged please write and let us know so we may rectify in any future reprint.

Except as permitted under U.S. Copyright Law, no part of this book may be reprinted, reproduced,
transmitted, or utilized in any form by any electronic, mechanical, or other means, now known or here-
after invented, including photocopying, microfilming, and recording, or in any information storage or
retrieval system, without written permission from the publishers.

For permission to photocopy or use material electronically from this work, please access www.copyright.
com (http://www.copyright.com/) or contact the Copyright Clearance Center, Inc. (CCC), 222 Rosewood
Drive, Danvers, MA 01923, 978-750-8400. CCC is a not-for-profit organization that provides licenses and
registration for a variety of users. For organizations that have been granted a photocopy license by the
CCC, a separate system of payment has been arranged.

Trademark Notice: Product or corporate names may be trademarks or registered trademarks, and are
used only for identification and explanation without intent to infringe.

Library of Congress Cataloging‑in‑Publication Data

Names: Ram, Mangey, editor. | Singh, S. B. (Engineer) editor.

Title: Mathematics applied to engineering and management / edited by Mangey
Ram and S.B. Singh.
Description: Boca Raton : Taylor & Francis, a CRC title, part of the Taylor &
Francis imprint, a member of the Taylor & Francis Group, the academic
division of T&F Informa, plc, 2019. | Series: Mathematical engineering,
manufacturing, and management sciences | Includes bibliographical
references.
Identifiers: LCCN 2019015378 | ISBN 9780815358046 (hardback : acid-free paper)
| ISBN 9781351123303 (e-book)
Subjects: LCSH: Engineering mathematics. | Industrial management--Mathematics.
Classification: LCC TA330 .M325 2019 | DDC 620.001/51--dc23
LC record available at https://lccn.loc.gov/2019015378

Visit the Taylor & Francis Web site at

http://www.taylorandfrancis.com

and the CRC Press Web site at

http://www.crcpress.com
Contents

Preface .................................................................................................................... vii

Acknowledgments .................................................................................................ix
Editors ......................................................................................................................xi
Contributors ......................................................................................................... xiii

1. Geometric and Geometric-Like Processes and Their

Applications in Warranty Analysis ............................................................1
Richard Arnold, Stefanka Chukova, Yu Hayakawa, and Sarah Marshall

2. Supervised Machine Learning: Application Example

Using Random Forest in R .......................................................................... 25
Bharatendra Rai

3. Simulation Optimization Approach for Cost Reduction

in Multi-echelon Inventory Systems Considering Cooperation
among Retailers ............................................................................................ 39
Taha-Hossein Hejazi, Afrooz Farhadi, and Bahareh Hekmatnia

4. Applied Mathematic Technologies in Nonlinear Mechanics

of Thin-Walled Constructions ................................................................... 71
Vladimir Dmitriev

5. Some Solutions of Differential Equations in Engineering

Calculations ................................................................................................. 117
Lubov Mironova and Leonid Kondratenko

6. Application of Transmuted Gumbel Copula for Energy

Modeling ...................................................................................................... 155
Alok Dhaundiyal, S. B. Singh, and Muammel M. Hanon

7. Differential Quadrature Method: A Robust Technique to Solve

Differential Equations............................................................................... 187
G. Arora and M. Bashir

8. The TSCSTFCF Procedure for Reliability Demonstration ................ 205

Amos E. Gera

9. Reliability Evaluation of a MANET Incorporating Copula .............. 229

Nisha Nautiyal and S. B. Singh

v
vi Contents

10. Hydromagnetic Flow of Copper-Water Nanofluid with

Different Nanoparticle Shapes toward a Nonlinear
Stretchable Plate ........................................................................................267
Santosh Chaudhary and KM Kanika

11. Reliability and Sensitivity Assessment of a Sugar Mill through

Mathematical Modeling ............................................................................ 285
Amit Kumar and Monika Manglik
Index ..................................................................................................................... 301
Preface

There has been ever-increasing challenges, trends, and attention paid to

applying mathematics to deal with engineering and managerial problems.
Engineers and managers more often find that ultimately their problems
are transformed into some of the mathematical forms, which itself brings
mathematics into the concerned field of study. We further believe that
researchers involved in problems dealing with practical engineering and
management approaches may have to apply mathematics to find the solu-
tions they’re looking for. Moreover, decision-making by managers, practitio-
ners, and engineers can be made more effective if the outcome is decided by
the combination of management and engineering theories with the applica-
tion of effective mathematical and statistical tools.
The fact of the matter is that mathematics is widely applied to solve the
many problems of physical and the material world. Keeping these facts and
the title of the book in mind, this volume contains applications of mathemati-
cal theories and models to problems such as warranty analysis, supervised
machine learning, inventory systems, nonlinear mechanics, energy model-
ing, reliability evaluation, and hydromagnetic flow.
This book is useful to senior graduate, postgraduate students, and research
scholars. Of course, it can also be used as a reference book by academicians,
scientists, engineers, and managers working in different organizations. We
wish to make it clear that this volume is small in an attempt to highlight
some contemporary works in which mathematics is applied to engineering
and managerial problems.

Mangey Ram
Graphic Era Deemed to be University
Dehradun, India

S. B. Singh
G. B. Pant University of Agriculture & Technology
Pantnagar, India

vii
Acknowledgments

The Editors acknowledge CRC press for this opportunity and professional
support. Also, we would like to thank all the chapter authors and reviewers
for their availability for this work.

ix
Visit https://textbookfull.com
now to explore a rich
collection of eBooks, textbook
and enjoy exciting offers!
Editors

Dr. Mangey Ram received a PhD in Mathematics and a minor in Computer

Science from G. B. Pant University of Agriculture and Technology, Pantnagar,
India. He has been a faculty member for about 10 years and has taught sev-
eral core courses in pure and applied mathematics at the undergraduate,
postgraduate, and doctorate levels. He is currently a Professor at Graphic
Era (Deemed to be University), Dehradun, India. Before joining Graphic Era,
he was a Deputy Manager (Probationary Officer) with Syndicate Bank for a
short period. He is Editor-in-Chief of the International Journal of Mathematical,
Engineering and Management Sciences and the guest editor and member of the
editorial board of various journals. He is a regular reviewer for international
journals, including IEEE, Elsevier, Springer, Emerald, John Wiley, Taylor &
Francis, and many others. He has published 150 plus research publications
in IEEE, Taylor & Francis, Springer, Elsevier, Emerald, World Scientific,
and many other national and international journals of repute and also pre-
sented his works at national and international conferences. His fields of
research are reliability theory and applied mathematics. Dr. Ram is a Senior
Member of the IEEE; life member of Operational Research Society of India;
Society for Reliability Engineering, Quality and Operations Management
in India; Indian Society of Industrial and Applied Mathematics; member of
International Association of Engineers in Hong Kong; and Emerald Literati
Network in the UK. He has been a member of the organizing committee of
a number of international and national conferences, seminars, and work-
shops. He has been conferred with “Young Scientist Award” (2009) by the
Uttarakhand State Council for Science and Technology, Dehradun. He has
been awarded the “Best Faculty Award” (2011); “Research Excellence Award”
(2015); and “Outstanding Researcher Award” (2018) for his significant contri-
bution in academics and research at Graphic Era Deemed to be University,
Dehradun, India.

Dr. S. B. Singh is a Professor in the Department of Mathematics, Statistics

and Computer Science, G. B. Pant University of Agriculture and Technology,
Pantnagar, India. He has more than two decades of teaching and research
experience undergraduate and postgraduate students at different engi-
neering colleges and universities. Professor Singh is a member of Indian
Mathematical Society; Operations Research Society of India; and National
Society for Prevention of Blindness in India. He is a regular reviewer of many
books and international and national journals. He has been a member of the

xi
xii Editors

organizing committee of many international and national conferences and

workshops. He is an editor of the Journal of Reliability and Statistical Studies.
He has authored and coauthored eight books on different courses of applied/
engineering mathematics. He has been conferred with four national awards.
He has published his research works at national and international journals
of repute. His area of research is reliability theory, fuzzy logic, and applied
mathematics.
Contributors

Richard Arnold Amos E. Gera

School of Mathematics and Statistics SCE College of Engineering
Victoria University of Wellington Ashdod, Israel
Wellington, New Zealand
Muammel M. Hanon
G. Arora Middle Technical University
Lovely Professional University Baghdad, Iraq
Phagwara, India
Yu Hayakawa
M. Bashir School of International Liberal
Lovely Professional University Studies
Phagwara, India Waseda University
Tokyo, Japan
Santosh Chaudhary
Department of Mathematics Taha-Hossein Hejazi
Malaviya National Institute of Department of Industrial
Technology Engineering
Jaipur, India Amirkabir University of Technology
Tehran, Iran
Stefanka Chukova
School of Mathematics and Statistics Bahareh Hekmatnia
Victoria University of Wellington Department of Industrial
Wellington, New Zealand Engineering and Management
Sadjad University of Technology
Alok Dhaundiyal Mashhad, Iran
Szent Istvan University
Gödöllő, Hungary KM Kanika
Department of Mathematics
Vladimir Dmitriev Malaviya National Institute of
Moscow Aviation Institute (SNRU) Technology
Moscow, Russia Jaipur, India

Afrooz Farhadi Leonid Kondratenko

Department of Industrial Central Research Institute of
Engineering and Management Machine Building Technology
Sadjad University of Technology Moscow, Russia
Mashhad, Iran

xiii
xiv Contributors

Amit Kumar Nisha Nautiyal

Lovely Professional University Department of Mathematics, Statics,
Phagwara, India and Computer Science
Govind Ballabh Pant University of
Monika Manglik Agriculture and Technology
University of Petroleum and Energy Pantnagar, India
Studies
Dehradun, India Bharatendra Rai
University of
Sarah Marshall Massachusetts–Dartmouth
Department of Mathematical Dartmouth, Massachusetts
Sciences
Auckland University of Technology S. B. Singh
Auckland, New Zealand Department of Mathematics,
Statistics, and Computer Science
Lubov Mironova Govind Ballabh Pant University of
Moscow Aviation Institute (SNRU) Agriculture and Technology
Moscow, Russia Pantnagar, India
1
Geometric and Geometric-Like
Processes and Their Applications
in Warranty Analysis

Richard Arnold, Stefanka Chukova, Yu Hayakawa, and Sarah Marshall

CONTENTS
1.1 Introduction .................................................................................................... 2
1.2 GPs and GLPs: An Overview and Applications........................................ 2
1.2.1 Geometric Process ............................................................................. 2
1.2.2 Classification of GLPs ........................................................................ 3
1.2.3 Applications of GLPs ......................................................................... 5
1.3 Applications of GPs in Warranty Analysis ................................................ 6
1.3.1 Basics of Warranty Analysis.............................................................6
1.3.2 A Warranty Cost Model for Non-zero Repair Times....................7
1.3.2.1 An Alternating Process (AP) Model .................................7
1.3.2.2 Three AP Models ................................................................9
1.3.3 Nonrenewing Free Repair Warranty Cost Analysis................... 11
1.3.3.1 Expected Warranty Costs Over the Warranty
Period (0, T )......................................................................... 11
1.3.3.2 Expected Warranty Costs Over the Product
Lifecycle (0, L) ..................................................................... 12
1.3.4 RFRW and RRFRW(n) Cost Analysis ............................................ 12
1.3.4.1 Expected Warranty Costs Over (0,WT ) ........................... 13
1.3.4.2 Expected Warranty Costs Over Product
Life Cycle (0, L) ................................................................... 15
1.4 Data Analysis ............................................................................................... 15
1.4.1 Fitting APs to Warranty Claims Data ........................................... 16
1.4.1.1 Hypothesis Testing ........................................................... 16
1.4.1.2 Comparing the Fit of the Models .................................... 16
1.4.1.3 Identifying a Parametric Form for the RP and GP ....... 18
1.4.2 Estimation of Expected Warranty Cost Over (0, T ) ..................... 19
1.5 Conclusion .................................................................................................... 20
References............................................................................................................... 21

1
2 Mathematics Applied to Engineering and Management

1.1 Introduction
Stochastic processes, such as renewal processes, are often used to model the
occurrence of recurrent events over time. Under the assumption of a renewal
process, the time between events are modeled to be independent and identically
distributed random variables. In many scenarios, this assumption is justifiable
and reflects the modeled situation well. However, if trends over time are observed,
this assumption does not hold. These types of trends can be observed in many
practical problems in a variety of fields (e.g., engineering—a system’s lifetime is
stochastically decreasing because of aging or imperfect repairs, and at the same
time the maintenance/repair time required to keep an aging system operational
is stochastically increasing; in epidemiology—the number of infected cases is
increasing at the start of an infectious disease outbreak and shows a decreasing
trend at the later stages of the outbreak; in economics—the trends in the eco-
nomic development of a country or a region show a periodic cycle in its gross
national product, increasing at the early stage of the cycle and decreasing at the
end of the cycle. All these examples have one common feature, their characteriza-
tion involves a specific monotone trend over a substantial time interval).
To model these types of “simple” trends, a monotone (stochastically
increasing or decreasing) behavior of the interevent times, a process called
the geometric process (GP), was introduced by Yeh Lam [25]. The GP is a
generalization of the renewal process, providing more modeling flexibility
than the renewal process by allowing trends but still retaining simplicity,
which preserves the tractability of its derived properties and its implementa-
tion. In addition, a variety of extensions of the GP, which we refer to in this
chapter as geometric-like processes (GLPs), have been proposed to address
an even wider range of scenarios and trends.
The aim of this chapter is to review GPs and GLPs and briefly outline some
of their applications. We also provide some specific applications of GPs to
warranty cost analysis. In Section 1.2 we provide an overview of GPs and
GLPs. In Section 1.3 we discuss the application of GPs in warranty analysis
and provide details of three alternating process models under two warranty
strategies. We apply the models to real data in Section 1.4 and conclude this
chapter in Section 1.5.

1.2 GPs and GLPs: An Overview and Applications

1.2.1 Geometric Process
The GP was introduced by Yeh Lam [25]. He points out that the well-studied
“good as new” and “minimal” repair scenarios are not useful for modeling
trends (e.g., decreasing) in successive survival times, and a new approach
Geometric and Geometric-Like Processes and Their Applications 3

is needed to represent possible trends in survival/repair times of systems.

The GP has many applications in reliability engineering. For a detailed
review of the GP, refer to [21].
The Geometric Process (GP): Let {Xn , n = 1, 2, …} be a sequence of non-
negative random variables. If they are independent and the distribution
function of Xn , is given by Fn ( x) = F( an −1x) for n = 1, 2,…, where a is a posi-
tive constant and F1( x) = F( x) , then {Xn , n = 1, 2, …} is called a geometric
process.
Equivalently, if a sequence of non-negative independent random vari-
ables Xn , n = 1, 2, … is such that the sequence Zn = an −1Xn , n = 1, 2,… forms a
renewal process (RP), then Xn , n = 1, 2, … is called a geometric process with
parameter a. Letting g(n) = an −1, the distribution of Xn can be written as
Fn ( x) = F( g(n)x). The function g(n) can be thought of as providing the trans-
formation required to convert a GP to a RP.
A GP is called a decreasing geometric process if a > 1, and it is called
an increasing geometric process if 0 < a < 1. If a = 1, the GP is a RP.
The density of Xn is fn ( x) = an −1 f ( an −1x), where f1( x) = f ( x). If E(X1 ) = λ and
Var(X1 ) = σ 2 , then

λ σ2
E(Xn ) = n −1
and Var(Xn ) = 2( n −1)
.
a a

The counting process defined by the GP is N ( x) = sup{n : Sn ≤ x}, x ≥ 0 where

Sn = X1 + X2 + … + Xn , with Gn ( x) = P{Sn ≤ x} . The expected number of failures
at time x, E(N ( x)), satisfies the following integral equation

x
E(N ( x)) = F( x) +
∫ E(N(a(x − y)))dF(y).
0
(1.1)

1.2.2 Classification of GLPs

Let {Xn , n = 1, 2, …} be a sequence of random variables with the distribution
function of the nth random variable Xn given by Fn ( x) = P(Xn ≤ x). In the case
of a RP, {Xn , n = 1, 2, …} are independent and identically distributed (iid), so
Fn ( x) = F( x), where F1( x) = F( x) is the cumulative distribution function (cdf)
of X1. For GLP, the inter-event times are independent but not necessarily
identically distributed. Imposing a particular relationship between Fn ( x)
and F( x) identifies the type of the GLP.
In Figure 1.1, we present a simple taxonomy of GLPs and divide them into
three main classes: basic, complex, and other. Many of the models we pres-
ent here have the characteristics of accelerated life distributions—where
the form of the distribution is always the same, but its time argument is
transformed.
4 Mathematics Applied to Engineering and Management

Geometric-like processes (GLP)

Basic GLP Complex GLP Other GLP

Fn (x) = F (g(n)x) Fn (x) = F (g(n)xh(n) + q(n))

Geometric Process (GP) Arithmetico-Geometric Threshold Geometric

Process (ACGP) Process (TGP)
g(n) = an−1
g(n) = an−1 , h(n) = 1, n−T
GPk : g(n) = ak k ,
[25]
q(n) = g(n)(n − 1)d for Tk ≤ n < Tk+1 ;
[20] k = 1, . . . , K.
Particular Deteriorating [12]
Renewal Process (PDRP)
Doubly Geometric
F̄n+1 (x) ≤ F̄n (x), in
Process (DGP) Extended Poisson
particular g(n) = an ,
Process (EPP)
1 = a 1 ≤ a2 ≤ a3 ≤ · · · g(n) = an−1 ,
[19] h(n) > 0, q(n) = 0 Fn (x) = F ((αan−1 +
[37] βbn−1 )x) and F (x)
is an exponential cdf
Quasi-Renewal [38]
Process (QRP)
g(n) = a1−n
Extended Geometric
[36] Process (EGP)
Fn+1 (t) = pFn (t) + qFn (at),
α-series Process (ASP) [45]
g(n) = nα
[8] Semi-Geometric
Process (SGP)

(Exponent) Extended P (Xn < x|Xn−1 =

Geometric Process (EEGP) xn−1 , . . . , X1 = x1 ) =
P (Xn < x|Xn−1 = xn−1 )
g(n) = abn , where and Xn , is given
0 = b1 ≤ b2 ≤ . . . by F (an−1 x)
[7] [39]

Generalized Geometric
Process (GGP)
g(n) = a0 a1 a2 . . . an−1 ,
where a0 = 1
[32]

FIGURE 1.1
Taxonomy of geometric-like processes. (From John Braun, W. et al., Nav. Res. Logisti., 52, 607–616,
2005; Maxim S. Finkelstein, M.S., Microelectron. Reliab., 33, 41–44, 1993; Wu, S. and Wang, G.,
IMA J. Manag. Math., 29, 229–245, 2018.)

• For the first class of GLPs, Fn ( x) = F( g(n)x) , for some function g(n).
The function g(n) could be thought of as providing the transforma-
tion required to convert a particular GP/GLP to a RP. We call this
first class basic GLP.
• For the second class of GLP, the transformation required for con-
version to RP has a more complex structure; thus, we refer to them
Geometric and Geometric-Like Processes and Their Applications 5

as complex GLPs. For these GLPs, Fn ( x) = F( g(n)x h( n) + q(n)), where

g(n), h(n) and q(n) are functions satisfying certain conditions that
depend on the type of GLP. Again, the expression g(n)x h( n) + q(n) can
be thought of as providing the transformation required to convert a
particular complex GLP to a RP.
• The third class of GLP extends the GP in other ways, for example, by
adding new assumptions about the inter-event times of the process.
We refer to these processes as other GLPs.

Our classification scheme for GLPs is presented in Figure 1.1. The taxonomy
we present here provides a starting point for further study of these processes,
and the modeling of situations involving monotone trends (see [1] for further
details).

1.2.3 Applications of GLPs

Next, we demonstrate the usefulness of GLPs by identifying some areas of
their applications with related references. The application areas and selected
references are summarized in Table 1.1.

TABLE 1.1
Applications of GLPs
Application GLP Selected Articles

Reliability and ACGP Repair-replacement [20]

maintenance DGP Failure times [37]
EGP Failure times [7]
EGP Maintenance [40,45,46]
EPP Corrective and preventive maintenance [38]
GP Failure times [3,11,24], Repair-
replacement [14,15,22,25,30,33,41–44], Shock
models [23,26,31]
GGP Preventive maintenance [32]
QRP Maintenance [34–36]
TGP Maintenance [21]
Warranty analysis DGP Number of claims [37]
GP Non-zero repair times [2,27]
QRP Instantaneous repair [4,18]
Other GP Coal mining disasters [3,11,24], Electricity prices [10],
Drug-related arrests over time [13], Patient
arrivals [24], vehicle arrivals [24]
TGP SARS epidemic [12]

Abbreviations: ACGP, arithmetico-geometric process; DGP, doubly geometric process; EPP,

extended poisson process; EGP, extended geometric process; GGP, generalized geometric
process; GP, geometric process; QRP, quasi-renewal process; SARS, severe acute respira-
tory syndrome; TGP, threshold geometric process.
Visit https://textbookfull.com
now to explore a rich
collection of eBooks, textbook
and enjoy exciting offers!
6 Mathematics Applied to Engineering and Management

1.3 Applications of GPs in Warranty Analysis

1.3.1 Basics of Warranty Analysis
A product warranty is an agreement offered by a producer to a consumer
to repair or replace a faulty product or to partially or fully reimburse the
consumer in the event of the product failure. The form of reimbursement
as a result of (1) product failure or (2) dissatisfaction with the quality of the
provided service is one of the most important characteristics of a warranty,
see [5,6]. Warranties are written with coverage limitations, usually in time
but also in other measures, such as usage. The two most common types of
warranty coverage used in industry and discussed in the literature are:

1. Nonrenewing warranty: A newly sold item is covered by a war-

ranty for some calendar time of duration, T, according to certain
warranty agreements. The warranter assumes all, or a portion of
the expenses associated with the failure of the product, from pur-
chase or the start of its usage until the expiration of the warranty
coverage.
2. Renewing warranty: The warranter agrees to repair or replace any
failed item up to time, T (the length of the warranty period), from
the time of purchase at no cost to the consumer. If the replacement
or repair is completed within the coverage of the warranty, then the
item is warranted anew for a further period of length, T.

Despite that warranties are so commonly used, the accurate pricing of war-
ranties in many situations remains an unsolved problem. This may seem
surprising because meeting warranty claim obligations can be costly for
companies. Underestimating the true warranty costs results in losses for a
company. On the other hand, overestimating them will lead to uncompeti-
tive product prices. The data relevant to the modeling of warranty costs in
industry are usually highly confidential because they are commercially sen-
sitive. A good deal of warranty analysis, therefore, takes place in internal
research divisions of large companies.
In most models for both maintenance and warranty, repairs are usually
assumed to be instantaneous [9,28]. If the repair time is relatively small com-
pared to the time to failure of the product and also if the down time of the
product is not associated with high penalties, then the assumption of instan-
taneous repairs is reasonable. Under this scenario, and assuming that the
repairs are perfect, the renewal reward process (see [29]) is an appropriate
tool to model the total expected warranty costs.
When the repair time is not small compared with the lifetime of the item,
the repair cost is related to its duration, or lengthy repair times incur a penalty
cost, then the assumption of instantaneous repair may not be appropriate.
Geometric and Geometric-Like Processes and Their Applications 7

In these situations, incorporating repair times into the model can improve
the estimation of warranty costs. Often, the repair cost is modeled as a linear
function of repair time. This is a reasonable assumption when the repair
activity is labor intensive, and the repair cost is dominated by hourly labor
costs.

1.3.2 A Warranty Cost Model for Non-zero Repair Times

1.3.2.1 An Alternating Process (AP) Model
In this section, we describe a general model appropriate for evaluating the
expected warranty cost under the assumption of non-zero warranty repair
times. Our main goal is to use this model to evaluate the expected product
warranty costs over a warranty period of duration, T, as well as the product
life cycle of duration, L. The life cycle represents the period of time dur-
ing which a product of the type under consideration is still of interest to
or needed by a customer: and during which time it will be replaced by the
customer if it fails, whether it is covered under a warranty. The notation that
will be used in this section is summarized in Table 1.2.
The model can be described as follows. Consider an item, which initially
operates (is “on”) for a time, X1, and then fails. It then undergoes repair
(is “off”) for a time, Y1. After the completion of the repair, the item is again
operative for a time, X2 , which is followed by a repair for a time, Y2 , and so
on. We refer to this model as an alternating process (AP) model.

TABLE 1.2
Nomenclature for Alternating Process Models
Xi ith operational (“on”) time
Xi ith repair (“off”) time
Zi Length of ith cycle (operational time + repair time)
Si End time of ith cycle
FXi (t) CDF of ith operational (“on”) time
FYi (t) CDF of ith repair (“off”) time
H i (t) CDF of ith cycle, Zi
G (t)i
1
CDF of end time of ith cycle
fXi (t) PDF of ith operational (“on”) time
fYi (t) PDF of ith repair (“off”) time
Ci Cost of the i th repair/claim
N (t) Number of completed cycles by time, t
m1 (t) = E(N (t)) Expected number of completed cycles by time, t
Abbreviations: CDF, cumulative distribution function; PDF, probability
density function.
8 Mathematics Applied to Engineering and Management

The AP model is specified in the following way:

• The lifetime of a new item, denoted by X = X1, is a positive continu-

ous random variable with cumulative distribution function (CDF)
FX ( x) = FX1 ( x);
• After the ith failure, a repair action with non-zero duration, Yi, takes
place. Assume the repair times, Yi, are positive continuous random
variables with CDF FYi ( y);
• After the ith repair, the item is restored to a functioning condition,
with a new lifetime denoted by Xi+1 with CDF FXi+1 ( x).

For simplicity, we assume the existence of the corresponding probability

density functions (PDF) fXi ( x) and fYi ( y).
We suppose that all of the random variables in the two sequences {Xi }1∞ and
{Yi }1∞ are independent of each other. However, their distributions are not nec-
essarily identical. By imposing different assumptions on the distribution of
the sequences of “on” and “off” times, we will aim to evaluate the expected
warranty costs under various warranty strategies.
Denote by Zi = Xi + Yi, the length of the ith cycle (i.e., the sum of the ith
n
operational and ith repair times) with the CDF H i (t). Let Sn = ∑ i =1(Xi + Yi ),
n
with CDF G1 (t). Further, let N (t) denote the number of completed cycles by
time, t. Then, the number of AP cycles completed by time, t , and its expected
value are given respectively by

N (t) = sup{n : Sn ≤ t} and m1(t) = E(N (t)).

Analogously to computing the renewal function [29], we can see that

∞ ∞
m1(t) = ∑
k =1
P(Sk ≤ t) = ∑G (t),
k =1
k
1

where

Gik (t) = H i ∗ H i +1 ∗ ∗ H i + k −1(t) (1.2)

and ∗ denotes a convolution.

We will assume that the cost of the ith repair is a combination of a fixed
cost and a term proportional to the (random) repair duration, Ci = A + δ Yi .
Here A and δ are known non-negative constants, and Yi is the length of the
ith repair. If data on the length of the repair and associated costs are avail-
able, this relationship can be evaluated, for example, by using regression
analysis.
Geometric and Geometric-Like Processes and Their Applications 9

1.3.2.2 Three AP Models

We focus on three variations of the AP model, which alter the definition of
the sequences of {Xi }1∞ and {Yi }1∞ to account for the aging and deterioration
of the system, as well as for the length of the repair time required to bring
the system back to an operational state. These processes are summarised as
follows:

• Alternating renewal process (ARP)—no aging is observed [16,17]:

• {Xi }1∞ forms a RP
• {Yi }1∞ forms a RP
• Generalized alternating renewal process (GARP)—aging causes
increasing repair times [27]:
• {Xi }1∞ forms a RP
• {Yi }1∞ forms an increasing GP with parameters {b , FY1 (t ) } , 0 < b ≤ 1.
• Alternating geometric process (AGP)—aging causes decreasing
operational times and increasing repair times [2]:
• {Xi }1∞ forms a decreasing GP with parameters {a, FX1 (t ) }, a ≥ 1.
• {Yi }1∞ forms an increasing GP with parameters {b , FY1 (t ) } , 0 < b ≤ 1.

Observe that the ARP and GARP are special cases of the AGP. For instance, if
a = 1 and b = 1, then an AGP is an ARP, and similarly if b = 1, then a GARP is
an ARP. The expected values of the ith operational time, ith repair time, and
ith warranty repair cost are summarized in Table 1.3 for the three models.
Because warranties are issued for a finite length of time, we need some
finite time horizon theoretical results for the three alternating processes
described. Table 1.4 provides a summary of the theoretical results needed

TABLE 1.3
Summary of Expected Values for the Alternating Processes ARP,
GARP, and AGP
Result ARP GARP AGP

{Xi }1∞ RP RP Decreasing GP

{Yi }1∞ RP Increasing GP Increasing GP
E(Xi ) E(X1 ) E(X1 ) E(X1 )/ ai−1
E(Yi ) E(Y1 ) E(Y1 )/ b i−1 E(Y1 )/ b i−1
i −1
E(Ci ) A + δ E(Y1 ) A + δ E(Y1 )/ b A + δ E(Y1 )/ b i−1

Abbreviations: AGP, alternating geometric process; ARP, alternating renewal

process; GARP, generalized alternating renewal process; GP,
geometric process; RP, renewal process.
TABLE 1.4
10

Summary of Key Results for ARP, GARP, and AGP in a Finite Time Horizon
Result ARP [16,29] GARP [27] AGP [2]

t ∞ t ∞ t
P(on at t) FX (t) + X 1 FX1 (t) + Xn+1 (t − z)dG1n ( z) FX1 (t) + Xk +1 (t − s)dG1k (s)
0
∫ F (t − y)dm (y) 0 0
∑∫ Fn=1
∑∫ F
k =1
t
= FX (t) + X 1
0
∫ F (t − z)dm (z)
E(Y1 ) E(Y1 )
E(YN (T )+1 |on at T ) ; for T > 0 E(Y ) FX (T ) { FX1 (T ) {
P(on at T ) P(on at T )
∞ T ∞ T
1 k
 1 
+ k X 1 + k
(T − s)dG1k (s)
Xk +1
0 0
k =1
∑ b ∫ F (T − s)dG (s) ∑b ∫ F
k =1 
P(SN (T ) + XN (T )+1 ≤ t|on at T ); FX (T ) − FX (t) FX (T ) − FX (t) FX1 (T ) − FX1 (t)
T
+ T
+ ∞
for T ≤ t T
FX (T ) + FX (T − u) dm1 (u) FX (T ) + FX (T − z) dm1 ( z) FX1 (T ) + Xk +1 (T − s)dG1k (s)
∫ 0 ∫0 ∑∫ F 0
k =1
T T
∞ T
X X 1 X X 1
0
∫ ( F (T − u) − F (t − u))dm (u) 0
∫ ( F (T − z) − F (t − z))dm (z) Xk +1 (T − s) − FXk +1 (t − s) dG1k (s))
T T ∑∫ ( F 0
k =1
F (T ) + F (T − u) dm (u)
X X 1 F (T ) + F (T − z) dm ( z)
X X 1 + ∞ T
∫ 0 ∫ 0
FX1 (T ) + Xk +1 (T − s)dG1k (s)
0
∑∫ Fk =1

P(SN (T )+1 + XN (T )+2 ≤ t|off at T ) 1 1 1

× × ×
P(off at T ) P(off at T ) P(off at T )
for T ≤ t
 T t −u  T t −u  T t −u
 FX (t − u − v) dFY (v) dFX (u)  FX (t − u − v) dFY1 (v) dFX (u) +  FX2 (t − u − v) dFY1 (v) dFX1 (u)
∫∫
 0 T −u ∫∫
 0 T −u ∫∫
 0 T −u
T T −w t − w −u ∞ T T −w t − w −u ∞ T T −s t − s−u
+ FX (t − w − u − v) dFY (v) FX (t − w − u − v) +∑ FXk +2 (t − s − u − v)
∫∫ ∫0 0 T − w −u 0 0 T − w −u 0 0 T − s−u
∑∫ ∫ ∫
k =1
∫∫ ∫
k =1

dFX (u) dm1 (w)) dFYk +1 (v) dFX (u) dG1k (w) ) dFYk +1 (v) dFXk +1 (u) dG1k (s) )
Mathematics Applied to Engineering and Management

Abbreviations: AGP, alternating geometric process; ARP, alternating renewal process; GARP, generalized alternating renewal process.
Random documents with unrelated
content Scribd suggests to you:
 P. McK.—And larrups the soldiers with a slambangbok.
E. F.—Yaw, yaw, und Bresident Kruger he vas vun olt ladies, und
der Preetish is aferyvheres, und Vebster Dafis don’d vas wort his
monies, und——
P. McK.—“Oond,” in short, you fellows are licked out of your boots.
E. F.—Vas?
P. McK.—I was saying that, in the sympathetic judgment of this
country, your admirable people are experiencing an unforeseen
adversity.
E. F.—Lort Roperts haf onvaded our sagred soil und he vil nod led
go.
P. McK.—My great and good friend, pardon me, but didn’t your
people begin that?
E. F.—We haf tvice unpology made, but Lort Soolsbury he vill not
occept.
P. McK.—How strange!
E. F.—Ve oppeals on der great und goot Yongee heart, vich lofes
us. It vas vun grand receptions vich der Amerigan beobles vas gif us
under Ny Yark som day!
P. McK.—Yes, it was. I have here a list of names of the Reception
Committee, which [enter Secretary Gage] I will read to you. [Reads].
Secretary Gage—Mr. President, may I ask if that list of names was
copied from the books of the Commissioner of Immigration at Ellis
Island?
P. McK.—O, no: they are names of exponents of American public
sentiment. They “received” this honest gentleman.
S. G. (eyeing honest gentleman)—Well, I fancy it would be more
blessed to give him than receive.
E. F.—But, your Egcellenza, shall ve haf der onterventionings
alreaty yet? I burn mit ombatience!
 P. McK. (to servant)—The gentleman burns. Put him out.
[Exit Envoy Fischer, pursued.]
Voices (within)—Hurrah! Hurrah for the Boer Republic!
P. McK.—There must be an unusual number of Congressmen in the
waiting room.
 THE ORDEAL
An Historian. Clio.
Historian (writing)—“The Yanko-Spanko war was brief, but very
destructive. In the two or three months that it lasted the Americans
had more than three thousand soldiers and a half-dozen sailors killed
by the Spaniards and—”
Clio—Tut-tut! no romancing; less than three hundred were killed.
H. (writing)—“Their own officers. Armed with repeating
incompetences, the latter were indeed formidable.”
Did you speak?
C.—No.
H. (writing)—“An effort was made to hold the commanding
officers of the expeditionary forces responsible for the mortality
among their troops, but ended in failure, for it could not be
determined who was in command.”
Clio, dear, who was in command at Santiago?
C.—First Linares, then Toral.
H.—I mean, who commanded the Americans.
C.—I don’t know.
H.—What are you the Muse of History for if you don’t know such a
thing as that?
C.—Ask me who really built the Great Pyramid, and why. Ask me
who wrote the “Junius” letters. Ask me who was the Man in the Iron
Mask. Ask me what Browning meant. Ask me anything in reason, but
don’t ask me who commanded the American army in the Yanko-
Spanko war. Settle it by turning a coin. You’ll be as likely to be right
as wrong, and in History that will give good results. The historian
who in the long run tells the truth half the time is a great historian.
H. (turning coin)—Head, Miles; tail, Shafter.
C.—Well?
H.—It is a smooth coin! (Writes) “The army before Santiago had
no commander.”
 FROSTING A BUD
McKinley, President. Hay, Secretary of State. Mark Hanna, Senator
and Dictator Politicus.
McKinley—John, I am greatly troubled.
Hay—Permit me to send for the head of the Bureau of Exculpation
and Avoidance.
McK.—Not to-day; it is another kind of matter.
H.—Ah, then; the Lord High Disheartener of the Importunate——
McK.—No, no, John, it is about you.
H.—About me? Surely, you do not mean—you cannot think that
another change in the Cabinet——
McK.—May you be Secretary of State for a thousand years.
H.—Then speak it out. I have a heart for any fate except one.
McK.—Well, it is this: I have not seen nor heard of anybody who
seems to want you for Vice-President. Actually, your name has not
been mentioned except by myself.
H.—And to whom were you pleased to mention it, if I may ask?
McK.—To Senator Hanna.
H.—And am I worthy to know what he said?
McK.—It will pain you, John. Mr. Hanna is a strong, coarse man
who says what he thinks and never stops to think what he says.
H.—What did he say?
McK.—That you would make a good running mate for a lame
tortoise.
H.—Indeed!
 McK.—He added that you had been drowned by the British
Ambassador in the Nicaragua Canal.
H.—Anything more?
McK.—He said that you parted your beard on the Greenwich
meridian.
H.—Yes.
McK.—He said that if asininity had not been invented you would
invent it.
[Enter Mark Hanna. Exit, McKinley.]
Mark Hanna—Good-morning, Mr. Secretary.
H.—What is your business with me, sir?
M. H.—Why, John, I came to ask you if you would accept the
nomination for Vice-President.
H.—After what you said to the President on that subject, sir——
M. H.—It has never been mentioned between us.
H.—Ho-o-o-wat!
[Falls in a fit of shivers.]
M. H.—The gentleman appears to be indisposed. Guess he was
struck by a draft from the Open Door.
 A BAFFLED AMBITION
McKinley, President. Roosevelt, Vice-President. Hay, Secretary of
State. Doorkeeper.
Roosevelt—Mr. President, I have come to consult with you about
——
McKinley—Why, yes, of course. I expect always to consult with the
leading men of the party—you and the others.
R.—Others?
McK.—In the great scheme of the universe Heaven has provided
others.
R.—There are also snakes and flies, but we do not accord them a
voice in the ordering of large affairs.
McK.—There is my Cabinet.
R.—Nice chaps—they will, no doubt, be glad to carry out any
policy that we may decide upon.
McK.—Then I understand that in the guidance and direction of this
administration you have the goodness to care to be the Whole
Thing?
R.—You do me the greatest injustice (lifting his eyes to the sky
and reverently pointing in the same direction). There is a greater
than I.
McK.—Have you any other news?
R.—I have read your message from start to finish.
McK.—Indeed! And what do you think of it?
R.—The worst I ever! It does not at all express my views on the
——
 McK.—The views expressed are supposed to be those of the
President.
R.—The devil!
McK.—I beg pardon. The President.
R.—But where do I come in?
McK.—Into what? The White House? Where the cat does, I think.
The other entrances are guarded.
R.—Look here, pardner, I mean to be a part of this administration.
McK.—With that hat?
R.—What’s the matter with the hat?
McK.—The head. [Rings bell, enter Hay.] Mr. Secretary, this
gentleman has the goodness to wish to resign and become a part of
the administration. Is there a vacancy in the Cabinet?
Hay—You can easily make one, sir, by appointing him.
[Exit Roosevelt, swearing.]
The Russian Ambassador has called to talk of a concerted
movement on Peking, to rescue the besieged legations.
McK.—Never mind that now—let us have peace.
[Enter Doorkeeper, pale and agitated.]
Doorkeeper—O, if you please, sir, the gentleman with the teeth!
McK.—Well?
D.—He—he showed ’em!
McK.—Well?
D.—He—he drawed a bowie knife! If you please, sir, I—I’d like
another place.
McK.—You are right, my good man. You shall be Minister to China.
 THE GENESIS OF A NATION
Hay, Secretary of State. Morgan, a Southern Senator. Telephone.
Morgan—Mr. Secretary, I have startling and important news: the
State of Panama has seceded from Colombia!
Hay—You don’t say so!—this is so sudden!
Mor.—Yes, sir, it is true.
Hay—Well, well! Who would have thought it?
Mor.—I trust, sir, this removes the last scruple that the
Administration may have had against immediate construction of the
Nicaraguan Canal. The war down there will——
Hay—War? Is there also a war?
Mor.—Sir, you astonish me! Am I to suppose that you do not know
that secession entails war? I learned that more than forty years ago.
Hay—Dear me! Then we shall have to protect American interests.
How do you think it would do to send word to our Consul at Colon to
be duly vigilant in the matter? Or perhaps it would be better to have
our Minister at Bogota notify Colombia that there must be no
bloodshed.
Mor.—I think, if you want to know, that that would be taking the
side of Panama.
Hay—We cannot, of course, do that: it would look like a violation
of neutrality. Really, the situation is embarrassing. I wish those hot-
headed southern Republics would be good.
Mor.—Well, sir, if you have nothing to propose, I shall speak of the
matter in the Senate.
Hay—Oh, thank you so much. I promise you that we will await the
conclusion of your remarks before taking any action in the
Nicaraguan matter.
Mor. (aside)—Hoist with my own petard!
[Exit Morgan; Hay goes to telephone.]
Hay—Hello! Give me the Secretary of the Navy.
Telephone—Br-r-r-r-r-rrr.
Hay—That you, Moody? Have you sent those fifteen warships to
the Isthmus?—and the two thousand marines? And have they orders
that if any Colombian soldier set foot on the sacred soil of Panama
they are to shoot him on the spot?
Tel.—Br-r-r-r-rzz—spot him on the snoot.
Hay—All right. I’ll draft a canal treaty with the Panaman Junta at
once. The President has his ear to the ground and says that there is
a pretty strong sentiment down there in favor of admittance into this
Union. Truly this is a wonderful century.
Tel.—People are saying that we fomented this Panama rebellion.
Hay—Oh, Moody; how unjust!
 A WHITE HOUSE IDYL
President Roosevelt. Shonts, Engineer of the Panama Canal. Loeb,
Private Secretary to the President. The Adversary of Souls. The
Press.

ACT I
 PRESIDENT (solus):
There!—’tis to be a lock canal. Now let
The dirt fly.
[Enter Shonts.]

SHONTS:
Very well, sir, don’t you fret;
It will, right speedily, I’m sure. But I—
I’m getting out of this concern. I fly!
[Exit Shonts.]

PRESIDENT:
Now let the heathen rage: their pet sea-level
Canal has gone a-glimmering to the devil.
[Enter Loeb with a card.]
What’s this? “The Adversary.” Just my luck—
Without a rake I get all kinds of muck.
Always that Democrat appears if I
But mention him—I really wonder why.
Of one too many he’s the one. Go say
(sighing)
That I’ll not see him—I’ve seen Shonts to-day.

LOEB:
The gentleman is in the waiting room.
I think he wants to talk about your “boom.”

PRESIDENT:
Wants an appointment in my Cabinet,
And there’s no vacancy.

LOEB:
O you forget—
There’s Hitchcock.
[Enter Adversary.]

PRESIDENT:
 S
Ah, good morning, sir. Delighted!
(aside)
The fellow never waits till he’s invited.

ADVERSARY:
Sir, we have overlooked the unwritten law
Forbidding a third term. You must withdraw.

PRESIDENT (aside):
Come to torment me! How this horrid shape,
Grinning behind his hand like any ape,
Maddens to candor. (Aloud) Brute! you might
delay
Your triumph until I have had my day
And nations weep, in slow procession walking
——

ADVERSARY:
For him who dug the great canal by talking!
’Twere long to wait unless your tongue were
made
By miracle divine into a spade.

PRESIDENT:
Take that, you beast!
[Beats him and chases him off the
stage, losing his temper in the scuffle.]

LOEB (solus):
The rogues fall out—sic semper.
As honest man, I will annex his temper.
[Puts President’s temper under his coat
and exit.]

ACT II
 THE PRESS (solum):
The President “received” last night—all smiles,
Charming the throng with amiable wiles.
But Loeb, with flaming eyes and flying feet,
Sprang in and kicked them all into the street!
 TWO FAVORITES
Wood, a Medicated Warrior. Miles, a Soldier. Satan, a Statesman.
Chorus of Citizens.
 MILES (to Wood):
Sir, I have ventured to observe with what
I hope is a becoming modesty, that not
In vain have been your sacrifices, nor
Quite thrown away your aptitude for war.
Service and genius—these are things that
count,
With (if you’re cavalry) the skill to mount.
Somewhat, too, doubtless, it promotes your
gains
In rank and honors to possess the brains
To know enough to go in when it rains.

WOOD:
Some know enough to note the fine effect
Of sunshine on their uniform.

MILES:
Correct:
I’ve keener joy to see the daybeam smite
My gay attire than you to see it light
Your military record. Let’s get through—
I’d rather bandy swords than words with you.
But you’re a man of peace—a doctor, sir;
To save life, not to take it, you prefer;
And in the Spanish War your taste was shown
In saving with consummate skill your own.
By that you earned, according to my notion,
More leather medals, not so much promotion.

CHORUS OF CITIZENS:
By that he earned, according to our notion,
More leather medals, not so much promotion.

MILES:
When you’re a general in chief command,
M d ll i thi h l d!
May peace dwell ever in this happy land!

CHORUS OF CITIZENS:
When he’s a general in chief command,
May peace dwell ever in this happy land!

WOOD:
From Santiago’s veins I drained the fever.

MILES:
When shown by Lawton how to make it leave
her.

WOOD:
I washed Havana.

MILES:
Yes, you made the mud flow
Right lively when you had been taught by
Ludlow.

WOOD:
My service——

MILES:
’Twas of silver, was it not?—
Given you by gamblers for the Lord knows
what!
Well, take your honors—they’re well earned, I
think,
By working for yourself with printer’s ink
And feats of fawning—all the arts, in fine,
Whereby our peace-time heroes rise and shine.
Rather than witness more of your intrigues
I’ll mount a bronco and ride thirty leagues!

WOOD:
Well, two Administrations, you’ll agree,
I have been served and honored by
I have been served and honored by.

SATAN:
Dear me,
I’ve had the favor and support of three.
 A DIPLOMATIC TRIUMPH
President Roosevelt. Secretary of State Hay.
The President—Say, John, I wish you would see the Chinese
Minister and tell him that Russia is complaining that China does not
observe a strict neutrality. Tell him that she is imperiling her
administrative entity.
Secretary Hay—I have already done so, sir; and I ventured to add
that an oyster schooner that had just arrived from below had a very
large mast.
The P.—What the dickens had that to do with it?
S. H.—Ah, you are not skilled in the language of diplomacy; it was
an oblique reference to the “big stick.” The Chink understood; he
was born on one of the days before yesterday.
The P.—And what did he say?
S. H.—Everything: put his hands into his long sleeves, crossed
them on his breast and bowed three times, profoundly silent. Then
he retired.
The P.—I am from Wyoming and you’ll have to explain.
S. H.—It’s all right. I at once summoned the other Ambassadors
(except the Russian and the Japanese) and told them that you had
made the most forcible representations to the Chinese Empress
regarding her Majesty’s breaches——
The P.—Her what? You said that?
S. H.—Of neutrality. They were greatly impressed.
The P.—What did they say?
S. H.—What could they say? They bowed and went out, one by
one, leaving the door open. The Open Door is what we stand for. It
is all over.
The P.—Except the shouting.
S. H.—Secretary Loeb will see to that. He has prepared a
statement of the incident for the press.
[Tumult within—cheers and fishhorns.]
The P.—What’s that?
S. H.—The shouting.
 A SUCKED ORANGE
The President. Root, Secretary of State.
 ROOT:
O world-power President, strenuous, mighty-mouthed,
audible, able,
Director of destiny, arbiter morum, compeller of princes,
Why this dejected demeanor, this sighing that signifies
something
Gone wrong with the organ wherewith you were happy
aforetime? O, keep me
No longer a-guessing: divulge to your faithful Elihu the
hidden
Vermicular monster that gnaws at the core of the executive
bosom—
Nay, feeds on the damask of that which mainly attests your
distinction.

PRESIDENT:
Alas, ’tis no worm that is secretly plying the hardy incision;
From troubles intestinal I and my country have present
exemption—
Albeit the Democrats, turbulent ever and always disloyal,
Continue to shout of political contributions, demanding
A needless accounting, and some hint at restitution. My
sorrow
Has better foundation. King Edward of England has joined
the Mikado
In making a shameless alliance to tighten their grip upon
Asia!

ROOT:
Why, surely, my master, we have the advantage: this
compact secures us
Continuous peace in the Orient, gives us the door that is
open.
Prevents the partition of China—in brief it establishes firmly
All that my great predecessor
(aside)
 (whom the Angel of Death, in
his wisdom,
Removed from my path to the White House)
(aloud)
so gallantly strove to accomplish.

PRESIDENT:
What’s that got to do with it, idiot? A broad-minded
statesman (behold him!)
O’erlooks, like a man on a stepladder, trivial and transient
advantage,
Discerning the meaning and menace of methods that mark
the achievement.
Not once in all the proceedings that led to this hardy alliance
Was uttered, or written, or thought of, the name of
Theodore Roosevelt!
[Exit.]

ROOT (solus):
O, dammit! why should they consult him?— there wasn’t a
roasting chestnut
To pull from the fire—and his fingers still smart from the
Peace of Portsmouth.
 A TWISTED TALE
Roosevelt, President. Hay, Secretary of State. Cassini, Russian
Ambassador.
 HAY:
Good morning, Count. Sir, are you well to-day?

CASSINI:
Quite well, I thank your Excellency. Pray
Inform me if your physical condition
Is satisfactory to your physician.

HAY:
O no, indeed: I’m sounder than an apple.

CASSINI (aside):
The fellow’s wormy.

HAY:
Now, then, let us grapple
With “Bessarabian outrages” and such.
Some recent—ah—um—er—have pained us much.
Christians and Jews alike are up in arms
Here in America, and this alarms
The President. He tells me I’m expected
To take a firm stand till the thing’s corrected.

CASSINI:
So good of him! That means there’s trouble brewing:
If we stay wicked there’ll be “something doing.”
If, for example, we ignore your cross talk
You’ll send a monitor to Vladivostok.

HAY:
O no, my friend, it might mean more than play
If public sentiment could have its way.
Our people are so wroth it might mean war
Did naught prevent—but that’s what I am for.
As ’tis, it means that an election’s coming,
And to succeed we’ve got to keep things humming.
 d to succeed e e got to eep t gs u g

CASSINI:
In other words, it means just nothing.

HAY:
Yes,
That is about the size of it, I guess.
The Jewish vote, you understand——

CASSINI:
I see:
To help you get it you apply to me;
And my Imperial Master is the cat
To pull your chestnuts from the fire. Well, “Scat,
You beast!” is not the right command.

HAY:
My noble friend, you do not understand.
What I shall offer to you for transmission
Is nothing but a courteous petition,
Which if you pocket (winking) on your own head be it.
I shall have done my duty as I see it.

CASSINI:
But how about your master?

HAY:
He’s all right;
He must make faces, but he need not fight.

CASSINI:
Hand in the document without delay—
’Twill go on file. I bid you, sir, good day.
[Exit Cassini; enter Roosevelt.]

ROOSEVELT:
Well, John, I trust you broke no bones. Did you
Well, John, I trust you broke no bones. Did you
Caution that candle-eater what we’ll do
If one more Hebrew they annoy? Does he
Clearly perceive they’ll have to deal with Me?

HAY:
Well, I should say so! Sir, I plainly said
You’d heap their land with tumuli of dead;
Hang by the heels the Czar until he’d weep
His shoes full; load the sanguinary deep
With battleships until ’twould overwhelm
The seaboard cities of their monkey realm;
Encumber it with wrecks and floating carcasses!

ROOSEVELT:
That programme is more strenuous than Marcus’s—
Hanna, my master. He would never dare
To twist the tail of the fierce Russian bear.
I’m big enough to tackle any brute!
[Exit Roosevelt.]

HAY (solus):
I too am quite a sizable galoot.
 POST MORTEM
The President. Miles, Commander of the Army. Root, Secretary of
War. Loeb, Private Secretary to President. Hull, Chairman of
Committee on Military Affairs. An Orderly.

ACT I
Headquarters of the Army.
 MILES (in bed):
What ho, there! orderly—I say, I say!
Bring in my breakfast. What’s the time o’ day?
What? six o’clock!—and day’s already broke?
I’m too late to escape him. Holy smoke!
I think I hear his footstep on the stair—
But no, it is not his: there is no blare
Of a great trumpet strenuously blown—
That veritable tuba mirum known
To have sounded once the charge at Kettle Hill
(After ’twas made) and to be sounding still.

ORDERLY:
Perhaps he will not come.

MILES:
Perhaps, perhaps—
Yet well I know those War Department chaps
Have told him of my novel plan that places
The Army on a military basis.
Ne’er mind the breakfast; I’ll get up and fly
Before the sun’s another minute high.
If I can by a masterly retreat
Escape him trust me to come back and eat.

ORDERLY:
There’s some one, sir, a-tryin’ to break in.

MILES:
O Lord, forgive my every little sin!
Seeing that I was going to be late
Developing my Plan, he would not wait,
He’s risen with the lark, alas, and brought
His answer to my unperfected thought.
He always was forehanded.
[Enter President.]
 PRESIDENT:
I’ve no time
To let the punishment await the crime.
Take that, and that, and that! (beating him.)

MILES:
Of course, of course;
I’m firm in judgment, but I yield to force.
“Submission is a military virtue,”
The Regulations say, “howe’er it hurt you.”
I’ll now submit to buffets with sobriety,
And, later on, my view of their propriety,
Together with some pertinent suggestions
Touching important military questions.

PRESIDENT:
You may, and touching civil ones to boot;
Submit them, though, to Secretary Root.
[Enter Root.]

MILES:
Yes, but ’twould hearten me if you’d agree
To signify your mind to him, not me.
Seeing him lame I’ll know the views I deem
Correct are held by you in light esteem.

ROOT:
Don’t rub your bruises, man; that’s mutiny!

PRESIDENT:
And it demands official scrutiny.
I’ll summon a court-martial, sir, to “fire” you;
And if it finds you guiltless I’ll retire you.
You huff me anyhow. Dashnation, man,
The battle spirit, like a black-and-tan
Ranch dog, sits up and howls within my breast,
And it’s O, to bust a bronco in the West!