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Akshay R Kulkarni
Adarsha Shivananda
Anoosh Kulkarni
V Adithya Krishnan
Time Series Algorithms Recipes: Implement Machine Learning and Deep
Learning Techniques with Python
Akshay R Kulkarni Adarsha Shivananda
Bangalore, Karnataka, India Hosanagara, Karnataka, India
Preface�����������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������xv
v
Table of Contents
vi
Table of Contents
vii
Table of Contents
viii
Table of Contents
ix
Table of Contents
Index�������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������169
x
About the Authors
Akshay R Kulkarni is an artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning (ML)
evangelist and thought leader. He has consulted several Fortune 500 and
global enterprises to drive AI and data science–led strategic
transformations. He is a Google developer, an author, and a regular
speaker at major AI and data science conferences (including the O’Reilly
Strata Data & AI Conference and Great Indian Developer Summit (GIDS)).
He is a visiting faculty member at some of the top graduate institutes in
India. In 2019, he was featured as one of India’s “top 40 under 40” data
scientists. In his spare time, Akshay enjoys reading, writing, coding, and
helping aspiring data scientists. He lives in Bangalore with his family.
xii
About the Technical Reviewer
Krishnendu Dasgupta is a co-founder of DOCONVID AI. He is a computer
science and engineering graduate with a decade of experience building
solutions and platforms on applied machine learning. He has worked
with NTT DATA, PwC, and Thoucentric and is now working on applied
AI research in medical imaging and decentralized privacy-preserving
machine learning in healthcare. Krishnendu is an alumnus of the MIT
Entrepreneurship and Innovation Bootcamp and devotes his free time as
an applied AI and ML research volunteer for various research NGOs and
universities across the world.
xiii
Preface
Before reading this book, you should have a basic knowledge of statistics,
machine learning, and Python programming. If you want to learn how to
build basic to advanced time series forecasting models, then this book
will help by providing recipes for implementation in Python. By the end
of the book, you will have practical knowledge of all the different types of
modeling methods in time series.
The desire to know the unknown and to predict the future has been
part of human culture for ages. This desire has driven mankind toward
the discipline of forecasting. Time series forecasting predicts unknown
future data points based on the data's previous (past) observed pattern. It
can depend not only on the previous target points and time (univariate)
but also on other independent variables (multivariate). This book is a
cookbook containing various recipes to handle time series forecasting.
Data scientists starting a new time series project but don’t have prior
experience in this domain can easily utilize the various recipes in this
book, which are domain agnostic, to kick-start and ease their development
process.
This book is divided into five chapters. Chapter 1 covers recipes for
reading and processing the time series data and basic Exploratory Data
Analysis (EDA). The following three chapters cover various forecasting
modeling techniques for univariate and multivariate datasets. Chapter 2
has recipes for multiple statistical univariate forecasting methods, with
more advanced techniques continued in Chapter 3. Chapter 3 also covers
statistical multivariate methods. Chapter 4 covers time series forecasting
using machine learning (regression-based). Chapter 5 is on advanced time
series modeling methods using deep learning.
xv
Preface
The code for all the implementations in each chapter and the required
datasets is available for download at github.com/apress/time-series-
algorithm-recipes.
xvi
CHAPTER 1
Getting Started
with Time Series
A time series is a sequence of time-dependent data points. For example,
the demand (or sales) for a product in an e-commerce website can be
measured temporally in a time series, where the demand (or sales)
is ordered according to the time. This data can then be analyzed to
find critical temporal insights and forecast future values, which helps
businesses plan and increase revenue.
Time series data is used in every domain where real-time analytics is
essential. Analyzing this data and forecasting its future value has become
essential to these domains.
Time series analysis/forecasting was previously considered a purely
statistical problem. It is now used in many machine learning and deep
learning–based solutions, which perform equally well or even outperform
most other solutions. This book uses various methods and approaches to
analyze and forecast time series.
This chapter uses recipes to read/write time series data and perform
simple preprocessing and Exploratory Data Analysis (EDA).
The following lists the recipes explored in this chapter.
Solution
Pandas load the data into a dataframe structure.
How It Works
The following steps read the data.
2
Chapter 1 Getting Started with Time Series
The following are some of the important input arguments for read_csv.
Solution
Save the dataframe as a comma-separated (CSV) file.
How It Works
The following steps read the data.
4
Chapter 1 Getting Started with Time Series
5
Chapter 1 Getting Started with Time Series
Solution
Save the dataframes as a CSV file.
How It Works
The following steps store the data.
### Check
print(data1.head(2).T)
6
Chapter 1 Getting Started with Time Series
1981-01-01
1981-01-02 17.9
1981-01-03 18.8
Name: 20.7, dtype: float64
Solution
A univariate time series is data with a single time-dependent variable.
Let’s look at a sample dataset of the monthly minimum temperatures
in the Southern Hemisphere from 1981 to 1990. The temperature is the
time-dependent target variable.
How It Works
The following steps read and plot the univariate data.
7
Chapter 1 Getting Started with Time Series
Date
1981-01-01 20.7
1981-01-02 17.9
1981-01-03 18.8
1981-01-04 14.6
1981-01-05 15.8
Name: Temp, dtype: float64
data.plot()
plt.ylabel('Minimum Temp')
plt.title('Min temp in Southern Hemisphere From 1981 to 1990')
plt.show()
8
Chapter 1 Getting Started with Time Series
This is called univariate time series analysis since only one variable,
temp (the temperature over the past 19 years), was used.
Solution
A multivariate time series is a type of time series data with more features
that the target depends on, which are also time-dependent; that is, the
target is not only dependent on its past values. This relationship is used to
forecast the target values.
9
Chapter 1 Getting Started with Time Series
How It Works
The following steps read and plot the multivariate data.
def parse(x):
return datetime.strptime(x, '%Y %m %d %H')
10
Chapter 1 Getting Started with Time Series
data1['pollution'].fillna(0, inplace=True)
data1 = data1[24:]
print(data1.head(5))
11
Chapter 1 Getting Started with Time Series
vals = data1.values
group_list = [0, 1, 2, 3, 5, 6, 7]
i = 1
plt.show()
12
Chapter 1 Getting Started with Time Series
Solution
A trend is the overall movement of data in a particular direction—that is,
the values going upward (increasing) or downward (decreasing) over a
period of time.
Let’s use a shampoo sales dataset, which has a monthly sales count for
three years.
How It Works
The following steps read and plot the data.
13
Chapter 1 Getting Started with Time Series
14
Chapter 1 Getting Started with Time Series
This data has a rising trend, as seen in Figure 1-6. The output time
series plot shows that, on average, the values increase with time.
Solution
Seasonality is the recurrence of a particular pattern or change in time
series data.
Let’s use a Melbourne, Australia, minimum daily temperature dataset
from 1981–1990. The focus is on seasonality.
How It Works
The following steps read and plot the data.
15
Chapter 1 Getting Started with Time Series
Figure 1-7 shows that this data has a strong seasonality component
(i.e., a repeating pattern in the data over time).
month_df = DataFrame()
one_year_ser = data['1990']
grouped_df = one_year_ser.groupby(Grouper(freq='M'))
month_df = pd.concat([pd.DataFrame(x[1].values) for x in
grouped_df], axis=1)
16
Chapter 1 Getting Started with Time Series
month_df = pd.DataFrame(month_df)
month_df.columns = range(1,13)
month_df.boxplot()
plt.show()
grouped_ser = data.groupby(Grouper(freq='A'))
year_df = pd.DataFrame()
for name, group in grouped_ser:
17
Chapter 1 Getting Started with Time Series
year_df[name.year] = group.values
year_df.boxplot()
plt.show()
Figure 1-9 reveals that there is not much yearly seasonality or trends in
the box plot output.
Solution
Let’s explore tractor sales data to understand seasonality.
18
Chapter 1 Getting Started with Time Series
How It Works
The following steps read and plot the data.
19
Chapter 1 Getting Started with Time Series
From the time series plot, Figure 1-10 shows that the data has a strong
seasonality with an increasing trend.
month_df = pd.DataFrame()
one_year_ser = tractor_sales_data['2011']
grouped_ser = one_year_ser.groupby(Grouper(freq='M'))
month_df = pd.concat([pd.DataFrame(x[1].values) for x in
grouped_ser], axis=1)
month_df = pd.DataFrame(month_df)
month_df.columns = range(1,13)
month_df.boxplot()
plt.show()
20
Chapter 1 Getting Started with Time Series
The box plot shows a seasonal component each year, with a swing from
May to August.
Solution
• The additive model suggests that the
components add up.
21
Chapter 1 Getting Started with Time Series
How It Works
The following steps load and decompose the time series.
22
Chapter 1 Getting Started with Time Series
Figure 1-12 shows that the trend is linearly increasing, and there is
constant linear seasonality.
decomp_turn_over = sm.tsa.seasonal_decompose(turn_over_data.
Turnover, model="additive", freq=4)
decomp_turn_over.plot()
plt.show()
23
Chapter 1 Getting Started with Time Series
trend = decomp_turn_over.trend
seasonal = decomp_turn_over.seasonal
residual = decomp_turn_over.resid
24
Chapter 1 Getting Started with Time Series
Solution
• A multiplicative model suggests that the components
are multiplied up.
How It Works
The following steps load and decompose the time series.
25
Chapter 1 Getting Started with Time Series
Year Month Pax TimeIndex
0 1949 Jan 112 1949-01-31
1 1949 Feb 118 1949-02-28
2 1949 Mar 132 1949-03-31
3 1949 Apr 129 1949-04-30
4 1949 May 121 1949-05-31
26
Chapter 1 Getting Started with Time Series
0 0.910230
1 0.883625
2 1.007366
3 0.975906
Name: Pax, dtype: float64
27
Chapter 1 Getting Started with Time Series
Solution
Let’s look at a few additional methods to visualize and detect seasonality.
The retail turnover data shows the seasonality component per quarter.
How It Works
The following steps load and visualize the time series (i.e., the seasonality
component).
quarterly_turn_over_data = pd.pivot_table(turn_over_data,
values = "Turnover", columns = "Quarter", index = "Year")
quarterly_turn_over_data
28
Chapter 1 Getting Started with Time Series
quarterly_turn_over_data.plot()
plt.show()
29
Chapter 1 Getting Started with Time Series
quarterly_turn_over_data.boxplot()
plt.show()
30
Other documents randomly have
different content
settled a pension upon the family of André, and, to wipe out the
imputed stain produced by his death as a spy, the honor of
knighthood was conferred upon his brother.
Bowlder-Monument.
A "more elegant and durable monument" was placed on the same
spot a few years ago by another public-spirited New York merchant,
Mr. Cyrus W. Field, and bears an inscription written by the late Rev.
Arthur Penrhyn Stanley, the Dean of Westminster. When that
eminent divine and earnest friend of our country and admirer of our
free institutions was about to visit the United States in 1878, he
made a list of the objects and localities which he desired to see
while here. Among these was the place of André's execution.
While Dean Stanley was visiting Mr. Field at his country residence on
the eastern bank of the Hudson, nearly opposite Tappaan, he with
his two traveling companions and their host crossed the river, and,
with one or two citizens of Tappaan, visited places of historic interest
in the vicinity. They found that nothing marked the place of André's
execution, and that it had even been a subject of controversy. The
bowlder-monument had been removed several years before. The
dean expressed his surprise and regret that no object indicated the
locality of such an important historical event, when Mr. Field said he
would erect a memorial-stone there at his own expense upon certain
conditions. A few days afterward (October, 1878) he wrote to a
citizen of Tappaan:
"I am perfectly willing to erect a monument on 'André Hill' [so
named by the people in commemoration of the event which occurred
there], and the dean will write an inscription, if the people who own
the land will make a grant of about twenty square feet for the
purpose."
So soon as it became known that Mr. Field proposed to erect a
memorial-stone at Tappaan, a correspondent of a New York morning
journal denounced the intention, upon the wholly erroneous
assumption that it was to be a "monument in honor of Major André,
the British spy." Other correspondents, equally uninformed, followed
with denunciations. A storm of apparently indignant protests, or
worse, ensued; and one writer, lacking courage to give his name,
made a threat that, if Mr. Field should set up a memorial-stone upon
the place where André was executed, "ten thousand men" were
ready to pull it down and cast it into the river! These writers, many
of whom concealed their real names, created considerable feeling in
the public mind unfavorable to the project, and elicited a multitude
of appeals to the patriotism and the prejudices of the American
people, to oppose what?—a phantom!
This intemperate and unwise correspondence continued several
weeks. There were calm defenders of Mr. Field's motives in
proposing to erect a monument, by persons who were well informed
and had a clear perception of the intent and importance of such an
act. The discussion was fruitful of some good. It had the salutary
effect of calling public attention to the claims of Nathan Hale, the
notable martyr spy of the Revolution, to a memorial tribute—a public
recognition of his virtues and his deeds—which had been so long
deferred by our people. These claims were now earnestly advocated,
not only by Mr. Field's critics, but by patriotic citizens. Considerable
sums of money were offered for the laudable purpose of erecting a
suitable monument in the city of New York to the memory of Hale.
Several persons offered one hundred dollars each.
Before the visit of Mr. Field and the dean, Mr. Henry Whittemore, a
public-spirited citizen of Tappan, and Secretary of the Rockland
County Historical Society, had found four living men who were
present at the disinterment of André's remains in 1821. With these
men he went to "André Hill," where they identified the place of the
spy's grave.[59] The requisite plot of ground was secured by Mr.
Field, who was compelled to buy many surrounding acres at an
exorbitant price. Then, relying upon the good sense, the intelligence,
and the patriotism of the American people for a just appreciation of
his motives, he proceeded to have a memorial-stone prepared.
Soon after Dean Stanley returned home he wrote the promised
inscription, and, in a letter to Mr. Whittemore (January, 1879), he
said:
Dean Stanley's Autograph.
"I have sent to Mr. Cyrus W. Field the inscription
suggested. Perhaps you will kindly see that the facts are
correctly stated. It is desirable that the inscription should
contain neither an attack nor a defense of André, but only
an expression of sympathy with him in his tragical fate,
and with Washington for the difficult circumstances in
which the judges were placed.
"A wreath of autumn leaves from the Hudson I had placed
on the monument in the abbey attracts universal
attention. I have also the silver medals of Washington's
headquarters, and the old Dutch church at Tappaan.
"I remain, yours gratefully,
"A.P. Stanley."[60]
On the 2d of October, 1879, the ninety-ninth anniversary of the
execution of André, the monument prepared by Mr. Field's order, and
placed over the spot where the spy was buried, was uncovered in
the presence of representatives of the Historical Societies of New
York, and Rockland County, of officers of the army of the United
States, of the newspaper press and other gentlemen, and a few
ladies. At noon, the hour of the day when André was executed, Mr.
Field directed the workmen to uncover the memorial. There was no
pomp or ceremony on the occasion. Not a speech was uttered, nor a
token of applause given.
From "André Hill" the company went with Mr. Whittemore to his
home in Washington's headquarters and the room in which André's
death-warrant was signed. While there the neglect of the memory of
Nathan Hale, shown by the American people, was spoken of, when
Mr. Field said:
"Gentlemen, if I may be granted permission, I will erect a
monument in memory of Nathan Hale on the spot where
he suffered death in the city of New York, if the place may
be found."
Several years ago Mr. Field made a similar offer to the New York
Historical Society.[61] More than thirty years before, he was a
contributor to the fund raised to erect the modest monument in
memory of Hale at South Coventry, delineated on page 26; and he
was next to the largest contributor to the fund for procuring the
bronze statue of a captor of André that surmounts the monument at
Tarrytown, which commemorates that important event.
The memorial-stone erected at Tappaan is composed of a shaft of
Quincy gray granite, standing upon a pedestal of the same material.
The whole structure is about nine feet in height from the ground to
the apex. It is perfectly chaste in design. There is no ornamentation.
The granite is highly polished. It stands upon an elevation, about
two miles from the Hudson River, and thirty yards from the
boundary-line between New York and New Jersey, and overlooks a
beautiful country.[62] On its west side it bears the following
inscription, written by Dean Stanley:
"HERE DIED, OCTOBER 2, 1780,
MAJOR JOHN ANDRÉ, OF THE BRITISH ARMY,
WHO, ENTERING THE AMERICAN LINES
ON A SECRET MISSION TO BENEDICT ARNOLD,
FOR THE SURRENDER OF WEST POINT,
WAS TAKEN PRISONER, TRIED AND
CONDEMNED AS A SPY.
HIS DEATH,
THOUGH ACCORDING TO THE STERN RULE OF
WAR,
MOVED EVEN HIS ENEMIES TO PITY;
AND BOTH ARMIES MOURNED THE FATE
OF ONE SO YOUNG AND SO BRAVE.
IN 1821 HIS REMAINS WERE REMOVED TO
WESTMINSTER ABBEY.
A HUNDRED YEARS AFTER THE EXECUTION
THIS STONE WAS PLACED ABOVE THE SPOT
WHERE HE LAY,
BY A CITIZEN OF THE UNITED STATES,
AGAINST WHICH HE FOUGHT,
NOT TO PERPETUATE THE RECORD OF STRIFE,
BUT IN TOKEN OF THOSE BETTER FEELINGS
WHICH HAVE SINCE UNITED TWO NATIONS,
ONE IN RACE, IN LANGUAGE, AND IN RELIGION,
WITH THE HOPE THAT THIS FRIENDLY UNION
WILL NEVER BE BROKEN."
On the north face:
"HE WAS MORE UNFORTUNATE THAN
CRIMINAL."
"AN ACCOMPLISHED MAN AND GALLANT
OFFICER."
GEORGE WASHINGTON.
The first of these two lines was quoted from a letter of Washington
to Count de Rochambeau, October 10, 1780. (See Sparks's "Life and
Writings of Washington," vol. vii, p. 241.) The second line is from the
sentence of a letter written by Washington to Colonel John Laurens
on the 13th of October. (See Sparks, vol. vii, p. 256.)
On the north face of the stone are the words:
"SUNT LACRYMÆ RERUM ET MENTEM MORTALIA TANGUNT."
The east front was left blank for another inscription.
Memorial at Tappaan.
Such, in a few sentences, is the story of the erection of the
memorial-stone at Tappaan by Mr. Field. The idea was the product of
spontaneous thought, elicited by a special occasion. The sole object
to be attained is the laudable and patriotic one of perpetuating, by a
visible record, the memory of one of the most important events in
our history, at the place of its occurrence. That event has two
prominent aspects, namely: the courage, patriotism, faith in the
American people, and the unswerving fidelity in the discharge of a
momentous trust, of our beloved Washington and his officers, in the
face of most extraordinary temptations to do otherwise; and the
execution as a spy of the adjutant-general of the British army, while
that army, twenty thousand strong, was lying only a few miles
distant, and supported by powerful ships of war.
These were the events to be commemorated by this memorial-stone,
and not the name or character of any individual. It was no more a
monument "in honor of Major André, the British spy," than was the
monument of white marble, twenty-five feet in height, which was
erected by patriotic men, in 1853, to mark the spot at Tarrytown
where the spy was captured, or the naming of the rivulet near which
it stands "André Brook." Surely every intelligent and right-minded
American, clearly comprehending the truth of the whole matter, will
award to Mr. Field the meed of praise for his generous and patriotic
deed.
An attempt was made on the night of November 3, 1885, to destroy
the beautiful memorial-stone at Tappaan by an explosion of
dynamite. The pedestal was shattered into pieces, but the shaft was
only shaken from its perpendicular position. This crime was the
logical result of persistent misrepresentation of the character and
intent of the memorial in some of the newspapers. Twice before,
attempts had been made to destroy it; the first time by a
defacement of the inscription by a misguided person who, on a dark
night, battered the letters, many of them almost beyond recognition.
The destroyer[63] left a small American flag hanging over the
monument from a stick, supported by a pile of stones, upon the
apex; also the following lines, the product, evidently, of one moved
by a spirit of conscious untruthfulness, or of profound ignorance of
the character of the object assailed:
"Too long hath stood the traitor's shaft,
A monument to shame,
Built up to praise the traitor's craft,
To sanctify ill fame.
Are freemen bound to still forbear,
And meekly still implore,
When conquered foes their altars rear
Within our very door.
FOOTNOTES:
[56] The original drawing from which the engraving was made
was received from London in 1849 by the author of this little
work, together with a copy of a profile likeness of André—simply
the head and shoulders—said to have been drawn by himself.
[57] Upon a panel is the following inscription: "Sacred to the
memory of Major John André, who, raised to the rank of Adjutant-
General of the British Army in America, and employed in an
important and hazardous enterprise, fell a sacrifice to his zeal for
his king and country, on the 2d of October, a.d. 1780, eminently
beloved and esteemed by the army in which he served, and
lamented even by his foes. His gracious sovereign, King George
the Third, has caused this monument to be erected."
Anna Seward.
THE AUTHOR OF THE MONODY.
Anna Seward, the abiding friend and ever-faithful correspondent of
Major André until his death, was a daughter of Thomas Seward, the
canon-resident of Lichfield Cathedral. She was born at Eyam, in
Derbyshire, England, in 1747. Her education, superior to that of
most girls of her time, was superintended by her father, who was a
graduate of Oxford, a man of great moral worth, and noted for his
scholarship.
Miss Seward evinced a taste and a genius for poetic composition at a
very early age, and before she reached the period of young
womanhood she attracted the attention of local literary characters.
She became a great favorite of Dr. Samuel Johnson, who was a
native of Lichfield and was a frequent guest at the house of her
father. On one occasion, when she was about fourteen years of age,
she wrote a clever poetical address of welcome to Dr. Johnson,
which greatly pleased the recipient. Miss Seward is often incidentally
mentioned in Boswell's "Life of Johnson." Writing of a visit at Mr.
Seward's in 1775, when Anna was twenty-eight years of age,
Boswell, Johnson's shadow, says, "And now, for the first time, I had
the pleasure of seeing his celebrated daughter, Miss Anna Seward, to
whom I have since been indebted for many civilities."
Miss Seward's first acquaintance with young André, her interest in
his love-affair with Honora Sneyd, and her pleasant epistolary and
personal intercourse with him until his departure for America, have
been referred to in the early portions of the brief notice of that
young soldier's career contained in this volume. During his service in
America she was his constant correspondent; and she first informed
him of the death of Honora a short time before his own tragic exit
from earth.
The circumstances attending the death of her friend inspired Miss
Seward to write her most notable and most admired poem, "Monody
on Major André." She was then thirty-three years old. It was printed
for the author at Lichfield early in 1781. Being consonant in its
utterances with the feelings of the British public at that time, it had a
large sale, and produced a powerful sensation. She received
congratulatory letters from literary people and others in various parts
of the kingdom. No man was more delighted with it than was Dr.
Johnson, "the colossus of English literature."
Johnson was a fierce Tory, and hated the Americans with a spirit of
savage ferocity. On one occasion, while at Lichfield, he said, "I am
willing to love all mankind, excepting an American." He called them
"rascals," "robbers and pirates," and angrily exclaimed, "I'd burn and
destroy them!" Boswell says Miss Seward, who was present at this
outburst of passion, and whose feelings were favorable to the
American cause, boldly rebuked Johnson, saying, "Sir, this is an
instance that we are most violent against those we have most
injured." This delicate but keen reproach irritated Johnson still more,
and, says Boswell, "he roared out another tremendous volley, which
one might fancy could be heard across the Atlantic." But Johnson
and Anna Seward remained good friends until a short time before
the death of the former. They corresponded with each other, and
frequently met in social circles.
I have said Dr. Johnson was delighted by Miss Seward's "Monody."
He exhibited that delight in the most public manner by writing and
publishing in the "Gentleman's Magazine," over his own signature,
the following poetic epistle to the author:
"To Miss Seward, on her Monody on Major André:
"Above the frigid etiquette of form,
With the same animated feelings warm,
I come, fair maid, enamored of thy lays,
With tribute verse, to swell the note of praise.
Nor let the gentle Julia's[65] hand disclaim
The bold intrusion of an honest strain.
Nor is it mine alone—'tis the full voice
Of such as honor with no vulgar choice,[66]
Of such as feel each glowing line along
Once the bright subject of an humble song.[67]
The treasures of the female heart make known
By copying the soft movements of her own.
Woman should walk arrayed in her own robe,
The hope, the boast, the blessing of the globe.
"Shrewsbury. S. Johnson."
Miss Seward's "Monody" was dedicated to Sir Henry Clinton. To it
were appended three letters written to her by young André
immediately after his betrothal to and personal separation from
Honora Sneyd. These I have appended to the "Monody," The printed
copy of that poem, before me, bears the autograph signature of
Anna Seward at the end.
It was not long after Johnson's poetical epistle to the author of the
"Monody" appeared before an interruption of the goodly feeling
between him and his fair friend occurred. In 1782 Johnson's "Lives
of the British Poets" appeared, in which he severely criticised the
poetry of her cherished friend Thomas Hayley. Ever ready and
prompt to defend heroically those she had learned to esteem, she
instantly took fire at the attack, and she wrote letters to her friends
which were far from complimentary to Johnson. To Hayley she
wrote:
"You have seen Dr. Johnson's 'Lives of the Poets.' They have excited
your generous indignation. A heart like Hayley's would shrink
astonished to perceive a mind so enriched with the power of genius
capable of such cool malignity. Yet the 'Gentleman's Magazine'
praised these unworthy efforts to blight the laurels of undoubted
fame. Oh, that the venom may fall where it ought!"
Animadversions by Miss Seward more severe than this found their
way, without her consent, into the public prints, and deeply offended
Dr. Johnson. The breach thus made was never healed. Miss Seward
refused to retract a word, but persisted in her utterances.
Sometimes, even after the death of Dr. Johnson, in 1784, they were
spiced with attacks upon his personal character. These attacks drew
from Boswell a defense of his dead friend, whom he almost adored,
and in 1793 he and Miss Seward carried on a spirited controversy in
the "Gentleman's Magazine."
Miss Seward's writings in verse and prose were quite voluminous.
The latter, consisting of her literary correspondence from 1784 to
1807, was published in six volumes in the latter year. Her poetical
works, with extracts from her literary correspondence, edited by Sir
Walter Scott, were published in three volumes in 1810. Next to her
"Monody," in point of excellence and popularity, was her "Elegy on
Captain James Cook," the famous circumnavigator of the globe. Of
this performance Sir Walter Scott said, "It conveyed a high
impression of the original power of the author."
The literary fame of Anna Seward has not been enduring, and she,
who was a conspicuous figure in the world of letters in England
during the last quarter of the eighteenth century, is now almost
forgotten. Her known social relations to Major André, and her
"Monody," have perpetuated her memory in the minds of Americans.
It is said that, when she was fully informed of all the circumstances
connected with the death of André, she was satisfied that she had
been unjust toward Washington in her animadversions upon his
character in her poem, and expressed a regret that she had so
misjudged him.
Miss Seward, in a letter to her friend Miss Ponsonby, related that
several years after the peace a friend of Washington's, an American
officer, introduced himself to her (Miss Seward), saying he was
commissioned by General Washington to call upon her and assure
her that no circumstance of his life had been so mortifying as to be
censured in the "Monody" on André as the pitiless author of his
ignominious fate; that he had labored to save him; and that he
requested his friend to leave with Miss Seward a package of papers
which he had sent, consisting of copies of the records of the court-
martial, etc. "The American officer referred to," says Sargent, "is
supposed to have been Colonel Humphreys."
Various opinions have been expressed concerning the writings of
Miss Seward. The literary circle of Lichfield, of which she was the
central figure, appears to have been a mutual-admiration society.
The productions of each member appear to have been eulogized by
every other member. Her friend, the celebrated Dr. Erasmus Darwin,
declared that she was "the inventress of epic elegy"; the eccentric
philosopher Day called her a "prodigy of genius"; while the wits of
London gently ridiculed the pretensions of the literary Lichfieldians.
Horace Walpole wrote: "Misses Seward and Williams, and a half a
dozen more of these harmonious virgins, have no imagination, no
novelty. Their thoughts and phrases are like their gowns—old
remnants cut and turned." The Rev. Alexander Dyce wrote: "She was
endowed with considerable genius, and with an ample portion of
that fine enthusiasm which sometimes may be taken for it; but her
taste was far from good, and her numerous productions (a few
excepted) are disfigured by florid ornament and elaborate
magnificence."
After Miss Seward's death, in 1809, there was published a small
volume with the title of "The Beauties of Anna Seward." She died a
maiden. The portrait preceding this brief memoir is a carefully drawn
copy with pen and ink of an engraving by A. Carden, from the
original picture painted in 1763, when she was sixteen years of age,
by Tilly Kettle, an English portrait-painter of note, who was then only
about twenty-three years of age.
FOOTNOTES:
[65] André in his correspondence with Miss Seward on the topic
of Honora addressed her as "Julia."
[66] A reading society at Shrewsbury is here alluded to.
[67] Alluding to an "Essay on Woman," written by Johnson.
MONODY
ON
MAJOR ANDRÉ.
By Miss SEWARD,
LICHFIELD:
M.DCC.LXXXI.
[Price, Two-Shillings-and-Six-Pence.]
TO
HIS EXCELLENCY,
MAJOR ANDRÉ.
Loud howls the storm! the vex'd Atlantic roars!
Thy Genius, Britain, wanders on its shores!
Hears cries of horror, wafted from afar,
And groans of Anguish, mid the shrieks of War!
Hears the deep curses of the Great and Brave,
Sigh in the wind, and murmur on the wave!
O'er his damp brow the sable crape he binds,
And throws his victor-garland[68] to the winds;
Bids haggard Winter, in her drear sojourn,
Tear the dim foliage from her drizzling urn;
With sickly yew unfragrant cypress twine,
And hang the dusky wreath round Honour's
shrine.
Bids steel-clad valour chace his dove-like Bride,
Enfeebling Mercy, from his awful side;
Where long she sat, and check'd the ardent rein,
As whirl'd his chariot o'er th' embattled plain;
Gilded with sunny smile her April tear,
Rais'd her white arm and stay'd th' uplifted
spear;
Then, in her place, bid Vengeance mount the car,
And glut with gore th' insatiate Dogs of War!—
With one pale hand the bloody scroll[69] he
rears,
And bids his nations blot it with their tears;
And one, extended o'er th' Atlantic wave,
Points to his André's ignominious grave!
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