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ADVANCES
IN SYSTEM
RELIABILITY
ENGINEERING
ADVANCES
IN SYSTEM
RELIABILITY
ENGINEERING

Edited by

MANGEY RAM
J. PAULO DAVIM
Academic Press is an imprint of Elsevier
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The Boulevard, Langford Lane, Kidlington, Oxford OX5 1GB, United Kingdom
© 2019 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
No part of this publication may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means,
electronic or mechanical, including photocopying, recording, or any information storage and
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with organizations such as the Copyright Clearance Center and the Copyright Licensing Agency,
can be found at our website: www.elsevier.com/permissions.
This book and the individual contributions contained in it are protected under copyright by the
Publisher (other than as may be noted herein).
Notices
Knowledge and best practice in this field are constantly changing. As new research and
experience broaden our understanding, changes in research methods, professional practices,
or medical treatment may become necessary.
Practitioners and researchers must always rely on their own experience and knowledge in
evaluating and using any information, methods, compounds, or experiments described herein.
In using such information or methods they should be mindful of their own safety and the safety
of others, including parties for whom they have a professional responsibility.

To the fullest extent of the law, neither the Publisher nor the authors, contributors, or editors,
assume any liability for any injury and/or damage to persons or property as a matter of products
liability, negligence or otherwise, or from any use or operation of any methods, products,
instructions, or ideas contained in the material herein.
Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data
A catalog record for this book is available from the Library of Congress
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A catalogue record for this book is available from the British Library
ISBN: 978-0-12-815906-4

For information on all Academic Press publications visit our

website at https://www.elsevier.com/books-and-journals

Publisher: Matthew Deans

Acquisition Editor: Brian Guerin
Editorial Project Manager: Thomas Van Der Ploeg
Production Project Manager: Sruthi Satheesh
Cover Designer: Harris Greg
Typeset by SPi Global, India
CONTRIBUTORS

Mohini Agrawal
School of Business, Galgotias University, Greater Noida, India
Adarsh Anand
Department of Operational Research, University of Delhi, New Delhi, India
Alessandro Barbiero
Department of Economics, Management and Quantitative Methods, Università degli Studi
di Milano, Milan, Italy
Navneet Bhatt
Department of Operational Research, University of Delhi, New Delhi, India
F. De Caro
Department of Engineering, University of Sannio, Benevento, Italy
Lirong Cui
School of Management & Economics, Beijing Institute of Technology, Beijing, China
Ant^
onio Carlos Lopes da Costa
Centro de Desenvolvimento da Tecnologia Nuclear—CDTN, Belo Horizonte, Brazil
Vanderley de Vasconcelos
Centro de Desenvolvimento da Tecnologia Nuclear—CDTN, Belo Horizonte, Brazil
Chen Fang
School of Management & Economics, Beijing Institute of Technology, Beijing, China
Soufiane Gasmi
Optimization, Modeling and Decision Support (OMAD), University of Tunis—Tunis
National Higher School of Engineering, Tunis, Tunisia
Miroslav Kvassay
Department of Informatics, University of Zilina, Zilina, Slovakia
Dongjin Lee
School of Computing, Informatics, and Decision Systems Engineering, Arizona State
University, Tempe, AZ, United States of America
Preeti Malik
Department of Computer Science and Engineering, Graphic Era Deemed to be University,
Dehradun, India
Monika Manglik
Department of Mathematics, University of Petroleum & Energy Studies, Dehradun, India
Lata Nautiyal
Department of Computer Science and Engineering, Graphic Era Deemed to be University,
Dehradun, India

ix
x Contributors

Rong Pan
School of Computing, Informatics, and Decision Systems Engineering, Arizona State
University, Tempe, AZ, United States of America
Brian A. Polin
Jerusalem College of Technology, Jerusalem, Israel
Ludmila Pustylnik
Department of Mechanical Engineering, Afeka Tel-Aviv Academic College of Engineering,
Tel Aviv, Israel
Jan Rabcan
Department of Informatics, University of Zilina, Zilina, Slovakia
Mangey Ram
Department of Mathematics, Computer Science & Engineering, Graphic Era University,
Dehradun, India
Amanda Laureano Raso
Centro de Desenvolvimento da Tecnologia Nuclear—CDTN, Belo Horizonte, Brazil
Alexander Rotshtein
Department of Industrial Engineering, Jerusalem College of Technology, Jerusalem, Israel
Patrik Rusnak
Department of Informatics, University of Zilina, Zilina, Slovakia
Luis Mejia Sanchez
Cummins Inc., Columbus, IN, United States of America
Wellington Antonio Soares
Centro de Desenvolvimento da Tecnologia Nuclear—CDTN, Belo Horizonte, Brazil
A. Vaccaro
Department of Engineering, University of Sannio, Benevento, Italy
D. Villacci
Department of Engineering, University of Sannio, Benevento, Italy
Sylwia Werbi nska-Wojciechowska
Department of Operation and Maintenance of Logistic Systems, Transportation Systems and
Hydraulic Systems, Wroclaw University of Science and Technology, Wroclaw, Poland
Petek Yontay
Intel, Inc., Chandler, AZ, United States of America
EDITORS BIOGRAPHY

Dr. Mangey Ram received a Ph.D. degree, majoring in Mathematics and

minoring in Computer Science, from G. B. Pant University of Agriculture
and Technology, Pantnagar, India. He has been a faculty member for around
10 years and has taught several core courses in pure and applied mathematics
at undergraduate, postgraduate, and doctorate levels. He is currently a pro-
fessor at Graphic Era Deemed to be University, Dehradun, India. Before
joining Graphic Era, he was a deputy manager (probationary officer) with
Syndicate Bank for a short period. He is editor-in-chief of International Jour-
nal of Mathematical, Engineering and Management Sciences and the guest editor
and member of the editorial board of various journals. He is a regular
reviewer for international journals, including IEEE, Elsevier, Springer,
Emerald, John Wiley, Taylor & Francis, and many other publishers. He
has published 131 research publications in IEEE, Taylor & Francis, Springer,
Elsevier, Emerald, World Scientific, and many other national and interna-
tional journals of repute, and also presented his works at national and inter-
national conferences. His fields of research are reliability theory and applied
mathematics. He is a senior member of the IEEE, life member of Opera-
tional Research Society of India, Society for Reliability Engineering, Qual-
ity and Operations Management in India, Indian Society of Industrial and
Applied Mathematics, member of International Association of Engineers
in Hong Kong, and Emerald Literati Network in the UK. He has been a
member of the organizing committee of a number of international and
national conferences, seminars, and workshops. He has been conferred with
“Young Scientist Award” by the Uttarakhand State Council for Science and
Technology, Dehradun, in 2009. He has been awarded the “Best Faculty
Award” in 2011 and recently Research Excellence Award in 2015 for his
significant contribution in academics and research at Graphic Era.

xi
xii Editors Biography

Dr. J. Paulo Davim received a Ph.D. degree in Mechanical Engineering in

1997, an M.Sc. degree in Mechanical Engineering (materials and
manufacturing processes) in 1991, a Mechanical Engineering degree (5 years)
in 1986 from the University of Porto (FEUP), the Aggregate title (Full
Habilitation) from the University of Coimbra in 2005, and a D.Sc. from
London Metropolitan University in 2013. He is Eur Ing by FEANI-Brussels
and senior chartered engineer by the Portuguese Institution of Engineers
with an MBA and Specialist title in Engineering and Industrial Management.
Currently, he is Professor at the Department of Mechanical Engineering of
the University of Aveiro, Portugal. He has more than 30 years of teaching
and research experience in Manufacturing, Materials and Mechanical &
Industrial Engineering with special emphasis in Machining & Tribology.
He also has an interest in Management, Engineering Education, and Higher
Education for Sustainability. He has guided large numbers of postdoctorate,
Ph.D., and Masters students as well as coordinated and participated in several
research projects. He has received several scientific awards. He has worked as
evaluator of projects for international research agencies as well as examiner
of Ph.D. theses for many universities. He is the editor-in-chief of several
international journals, guest editor of journals, book editor, book series edi-
tor, and scientific advisory for many international journals and conferences.
Presently, he is an editorial board member of 25 international journals and
acts as reviewer for more than 80 prestigious Web of Science journals. In
addition, he has also published as editor (and coeditor) more than 100 books
and as author (and coauthor) more than 10 books, 80 book chapters, and 400
articles in journals and conferences (more than 200 articles in journals
indexed in Web of Science core collection/h-index 45+/6000 + citations
and SCOPUS/h-index 52+/8000 + citations).
PREFACE

Advances in modeling and simulation is arguably one of the most multidi-

mensional topics that one can face in system reliability engineering today.
This rapid development also creates many opportunities and challenges
for both industrialists and academics, and has completely changed the global
design and system engineering environment. More modeling tasks can now
be undertaken within a computer environment using simulation and virtual
reality technologies.
Through this book, Recent Advances in System Reliability Engineering,
engineers and academicians will gain the knowledge to help them in system
reliability engineering. This book is meant for those who are pursuing
reliability engineering as a subject of study. The material is intended for
an audience at the level of postgraduate or senior undergraduate students.
That’s why system reliability engineering is now a well-recognized and
rapidly developing branch of engineering.
Topics of focus include:
• Delay-time-based maintenance modeling for technical systems
• Probabilistic and deterministic safety analysis
• Reliability-game theory
• Integrating reliability models and adaptive algorithms for wind power
forecasting
• Time-dependent analysis of series-parallel multistate systems using struc-
ture function and Markov processes
• Modeling-correlated counts in reliability engineering
• Statistical inference of an imperfect repair model with uniform distrib-
uted repair degrees
• Method of fuzzy perfectness in human reliability analysis; selection of
performance conditions
• System reliability assessment through Bayesian network modeling
• Multistate multifailures system analysis with reworking strategy and
imperfect fault coverage
• Software patch scheduling policy incorporating functional safety
standards
• Tools and techniques in software reliability modeling
Through this book, the undergraduate and postgraduate students of engineer-
ing, engineers, research scientists, and academicians will gain the knowledge

xiii
xiv Preface

to help them in their reliability courses. This book is meant for those who take
reliability and safety as a subject of study.
The editors acknowledge Elsevier for this opportunity and for their
professional support. Finally, we would like to thank all the chapter authors
for their availability for this work.

Mangey Ram
Dehradun, India
J. Paulo Davim
Aveiro, Portugal
ACKNOWLEDGMENTS

The editors acknowledge Elsevier and the editorial team for their adequate
and professional support during the preparation of this book. Also, we would
like to acknowledge all of the chapter authors and reviewers for their avail-
ability for work on this book project.

Mangey Ram
Graphic Era Deemed to University, Dehradun, India
J. Paulo Davim
University of Aveiro, Aveiro, Portugal

xv
CHAPTER 1

Delay-Time-Based Maintenance
Modeling for Technical Systems—
Theory and Practice

ska-Wojciechowska
Sylwia Werbin
Department of Operation and Maintenance of Logistic Systems, Transportation Systems and Hydraulic
Systems, Wroclaw University of Science and Technology, Wroclaw, Poland

Abstract
This chapter will be a valuable resource for understanding the latest developments in
maintenance modeling issues in the field of delay-time approach implementation. This
chapter presents the literature review on delay-time modeling for single- and multiunit
systems. The maintenance models for single-unit systems assume two-stage or three-
stage failure processes. In the case of complex systems, the discussed problems are with
regard to models’ parameters, estimation issues, case studies analysis, or hybrid model-
ing approach implementation. The maintenance models for multiunit systems examine
the known models for nonseries systems. A case study for maintenance modeling for
multiunit systems based on a delay-time approach is provided. The directions for further
research work are defined.

Keywords: Delay-time concept, Multiunit systems, Literature review, Maintenance

modeling, Optimization

Abbreviations
AIC Akaike information criterion
BI Block Inspection
CM corrective maintenance
DT delay time
DTA delay-time approach
DTM delay-time models
ELECTRE elimination and choice expressing the reality
HPP homogeneous Poisson process
MAUT multiattribute utility theory
MC Monte Carlo
MLE maximum likelihood estimation
MRT mean repair time
MTBF mean time between failures
NHPP nonhomogeneous Poisson process
PAR proportional age reduction
PM preventive maintenance
PROMETHEE preference ranking organization method for enrichment evaluations

Advances in System Reliability Engineering © 2019 Elsevier Inc.

https://doi.org/10.1016/B978-0-12-815906-4.00001-4 All rights reserved. 1
2 Advances in System Reliability Engineering

Important Notations
c(Tin) expected cost over each inspection cycle
c(Tini) expected cost over ith inspection cycle
C(Tin) total costs resulting from chosen maintenance policy
ccs clean-up cost connected with cleaning up any spillage that may result in a
failure
cin cost of inspection action performance
cp cost of preventive replacement of a unit
cr cost of failed unit replacement
din time of single inspection action performance
dp the time of preventive replacement of a system
dr time of corrective replacement of a system (after a failure)
E[x] expected value of random variable x
Ed(Tin) expected downtime in an inspection cycle of length Tin
F(t) probability distribution function of system/unit lifetime; F(t)¼1F(t)
Fh(h) probability distribution function of system delay time
fh(h) probability density function of system delay time
Fhi(h) probability distribution function of ith element delay time
fhi(h) probability density function of ith element delay time
Gh(t) probability distribution function of the initial time u, which elapses from
the beginning of operation by “as good as new” elements of a system until
the moment of first symptoms of failure occurrence
gh(t) probability density function of the initial time u, which elapses from the
beginning of operation by “as good as new” elements of a system until
the moment of first symptoms of failure occurrence
Ghi(t) probability distribution function of initial time u of ith element in a system
ghi(t) probability density function of initial time u of ith element in a system
h delay time of a defect, denoting the period between the moment of appear-
ance of the first symptoms of potential failure and the moment of an
object’s failure occurrence
ku constant rate for fault’s arrival in a technical system for any
inspection period
Mcs measure of possible impact of a failure of a piece of equipment on an
environment
Menv(Tin) environmental model of a technical object
m number of failures until element replacement
n number of elements in a system
nk minimum number of operating components to make a system function
(performance in nk-out-of-n reliability structure)
Nrin(ti–1in, tiin) expected number of failures over inspection interval (ti–1in, tiin)
pcs probability of a failure resulting in a spillage requiring clean up
pin probability of imperfect inspection occurrence
PuF(Tin) probability of a fault arising as a breakdown in a system
pw probability that, during system inspection, performance symptoms of
forthcoming failures (if they occur in a system) are identified
R(t) reliability function of a system
 Delay-Time-Based Maintenance Modeling for Technical Systems—Theory and Practice 3

RTin(t) component reliability at time t

RTinic a cubic approximation of average reliability over an ith inspection
RTiniL a linear approximation of average reliability over an ith inspection
rmr repair cost rate
r(iTin
)
(t) reliability function for a component at time t
(k)
r˙Tin(kTin) left-hand derivative of reliability function at t ¼ kTin
tf random moment of failure occurrence in a system
Tin time between inspection actions’ performance
Tini time of ith inspection cycle performance (between two consecutive inspec-
tion actions’ performance)
TM(Tin) total expected length of a renewal cycle
TM(Tini) expected length of ith inspection cycle
TOP random variable denoting system’s lifetime
TOP(Tin) expected length of element/system’s lifetime
tu moment of the first symptoms of potential failure occurrence
u initial time of a defect
δh standard deviation for normal distribution of a delay time h
δr standard deviation for normal distribution of a time to failure
λh(t) intensity function of a system delay time
λu(u) random rate for fault’s arrival in a technical system for any inspection period

1 INTRODUCTION
Many real-life systems may display some symptoms of forthcoming failure.
One example may be a production process, which may start producing
defective items after some random amount of time. If the situation is not
corrected, product quality gradually deteriorates to a level where it is self-
evident to an operator that the system has failed. By inspecting the product
quality at some intervals, the operator may be able to reduce the cost
incurred with the system lifetime [1]. These types of components may ben-
efit from an inspection policy whereby a component is inspected for a defect
and consequently replaced at inspection to prevent failure [2]. Recent
reviews on inspection maintenance modeling issues are presented in the lit-
erature [3–9].
The basic inspection models are extended by using a technique called
delay-time analysis (DTA), which was developed for modeling the conse-
quences of an inspection policy for any system [10]. This approach was first
described and investigated by Christer et al. [10–16].
This maintenance concept is based on the assumption that before a sys-
tem breaks down, there will be some signs of its reduced performance. The
time between the first identification of abnormalities (called initial point)
4 Advances in System Reliability Engineering

Delay time — during this

Initial time — during this time interval the defect
time interval the defect can be identified by an
cannot be visible inspection
u h

0 tu tf t

Time point when a fault Time point when a component

could be first identified fails if no maintenance
intervention during time h is
conducted
Fig. 1 Time-delay-modeling concept.

and the actual failure time (called failure point) is called a delay time and
determines the best opportunity to carry out maintenance or an inspection
(Fig. 1). As a result, the delay-time concept defines a two-stage process for
three-stated systems (being either in upstate, partially upstate, or in down-
state). For more information, the author recommends reading Wang
et al. [17].
The inspection schemes in delay-time models may be periodic or based
on condition-based maintenance implementation [18]. In this chapter, the
author focuses on periodic inspection maintenance modeling issues. More
information about condition-based delay-time models may be found in
the literature [19–25].
The interest in DT modeling issues has increased significantly in recent
years. Literature reviews, in which delay-time models are investigated along
with other preventive maintenance models, are given in several studies
[26–32]. The states of art works, dedicated to DT modeling, were mostly
developed in the 1990s. One of the first literature reviews was given by
Christer et al. [19], where the authors discussed a basic DT model for a
single-unit case taking into account model parameters estimation problems.
Later, the state of art was updated in Christer et al. [33]. In this work, math-
ematical methods for updating delay-time models of industrial inspection
practice are proposed. They presented a linear delay-time update method
and model parameter variation. Moreover, the authors also provide a com-
bination of these methods in the maintenance area and defines the criteria for
choosing an updating method.
Christer later presented a basic delay-time model [34] and discussed the
main development directions, including perfect/nonperfect inspection
Discovering Diverse Content Through
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one hundred posters, and the older ones three hundred. Last of all,
every church member was requested to find twenty unbelievers who
would promise to attend the campaign meetings. These we called
the “pledged hearers.” This plan of finding the “pledged hearers”
before the campaign opened worked out very well, as the church
people were thus brought into direct personal contact with most of
the people who came to our meetings.
With this training and these objectives we began the campaign
February 5, 1919. But unfortunately we failed to attain our first
objective. There were two reasons for this: One was that on the very
first morning of our campaign all the city papers made a public
announcement from the headquarters of the Police Department,
strongly advising the people not to attend any kind of a mass
meeting on account of the terrible influenza, which was then raging
throughout the whole city; the other was such a big snowstorm on
the fourth night that all the city trolley cars stopped running.
But in spite of these hindrances about eight thousand people came
during the six nights. Of these about two thousand were Christians,
so the unbelievers, who were the real object of the campaign,
numbered only about six thousand, a little over half of our objective.
 Mr. Kanamori’s Decision Card
Translation of upper section: “I believe in the one true
living God; I repent of my sin; I accept salvation
through the Cross of Jesus Christ; I follow Christ even
unto death.”
The two large characters signify “Heart” and
“Decision.” Then follow instructions and space for
writing one’s name and address.
We had the most unexpected success in attaining our second
objective. From the six thousand unbelievers we had three thousand
and sixty-one decisions for Christ. More than half of the unbelieving
portion of the audience decided to accept Christ. This was a great
surprise. No one ever dreamed of such a great result as this.
Moreover, this audience of eight thousand people was made up of all
classes. Among them were high government officials, members of
Parliament, professors of universities, teachers of all kinds of
schools, students from the universities, as well as high-school boys
and girls, merchants, bankers, and business men; in fact, all classes
of Japanese society were represented in this audience. But the
greatest surprise of all was that out of the three thousand decisions
we found about two thousand were all educated young men and
women, the essence of the rising generation of Japan. Here are the
exact figures of the campaign.
Total
Unbelieving
Christian Decisions
Attendance Portion
First Night 1,000 250 750 390
Second Night 1,200 300 900 394
Third Night 1,300 300 1,000 429
Fourth Night (big
500 150 350 267
snow storm)
Fifth Night 1,600 350 1,250 690
Sixth Night 2,200 450 1,750 891
 ——— ——— ——— ———
Totals 7,800 1,800 6,000 3,061
But I must tell of the “follow-up work” of the campaign. We began
immediately. For the five nights following the campaign we had
meetings for the new converts, during which I preached the practical
side of Christianity, such as consecration, prayer, Bible reading, and
so on. A little over sixteen hundred out of three thousand converts
attended these after-meetings. Then for a whole month the pastor
and his associates conducted special preaching services every night,
just for the purpose of educating and training these three thousand
converts. After that about fifty Christian homes of the church were
thrown open for district meetings for the converts living in that
district. And lastly, the names of the new converts were all printed
on one big sheet and distributed to all the church-members, so that
every one of these new converts should come under the care of
some member of the church. To each member were assigned from
three to ten names, for whose spiritual training he would be
responsible. In these ways we carried on our “follow-up work” after
the campaign. God wonderfully blessed that campaign.
Immediately after this a Congregational church carried on the same
kind of an evangelistic campaign. In this we had two thousand
decisions. After these two big campaigns we had twenty smaller
ones in and around the city of Tokyo, conducted by twenty churches,
in which a little over five thousand decisions were made. So that the
whole number of decisions during the three months’ campaign was
10,440. Of these converts about one thousand were taken into the
churches of their choice before the summer of 1919.
Thus you can easily see how mightily the Spirit of God is now
working among my people. And it is not man’s work, but the work of
God himself. In the presence of such fire from heaven man must
take off his shoes and praise the Lord only.
In this connection I must tell you one secret, if it can be called a
secret. In that big campaign in the Tokyo Y. M. C. A., if it can be said
that I had any part in it, it was not by my preaching so much as by
my praying. This I say to the glory of the Lord, and not my own.
Though I made fifteen hundred decisions the objective for the
church, I had my own secret objective, which was three thousand
decisions. For the last three years I had been conducting my
evangelistic campaigns all over the country, except in Tokyo, the
capital. And now at last God had led me to this city of about three
million people, to conduct a campaign on a larger scale than I had
ever attempted. Surely the result of this campaign must exert great
influence all over the country. So I prayed to God that he would pour
out his Holy Spirit in this campaign as he did at Pentecost in
Jerusalem, and show forth his power and glory, and let all people
know that our God is a living God.
So I prayed for three thousand decisions, the same number as at
Pentecost. For ten days of the campaign I left my own home, which
is in the same city, and retired to a private room on the fourth floor
of the tower on the Y. M. C. A. building, and there spent a quiet time
in prayer and fasting. It is my usual custom during these campaigns
not to see any one in the afternoon. After lunch I always retire and
engage in prayer. When I preach my three-hour sermon to an
unbelieving audience, I never take my evening meal. I lose my
appetite as I feel the burden of my message to those thousands of
unbelievers, whose eternal destiny is now in my hands. If they
accept my message and believe in Jesus, it will be life eternal to
them, but if they reject it the result will be just the opposite. Who
can feel equal to such a great responsibility as this?
When I was once asked, half jestingly, why I do not take food before
I preach, I answered, “Could you sit at your table, eating and
drinking, laughing and joking with your good friends, and in this
manner spend the last critical hour just before you appear before
thousands of souls in the attempt to settle their eternal destiny?”
No, I cannot do it. I always feel that the only place from which I can
go to my pulpit is “the mercy seat.” Thus I prayed and fasted for this
blessing of getting three thousand decisions, and God answered my
prayer, and gave me exactly 3,061 decisions. Is not this a real
Pentecostal outpouring of the Holy Spirit? God is working mightily
through his Holy Spirit throughout the length and breadth of my
country.
This condition is not confined to the large cities alone, but in more
than two hundred places where I conducted similar campaigns we
found the same conditions. Of course there are some differences in
the results of the campaign. From my own experience I can say the
result of such a campaign almost entirely depends upon the pastors
and churches which have undertaken it. I always tell those pastors
with whom I work that the work of the evangelist is like that of a
woodman who goes to the forest and cuts down the trees big and
small, and brings them to the shop of the carpenter. There the
woodman’s work ends, and the carpenter’s work begins. Now the
carpenter must work upon this raw material which the woodman has
furnished him. He must cut and saw and plane, and make posts and
boards and build the house. But if the carpenter does not work, and
lets the timber lie piled up outside his shop, the rain and frost will
come, and the timber will surely rot and decay. Who is responsible
for the rotting of the timber? The woodman or the carpenter? When
I had faithful pastors and working churches I have always seen fine
results.
I have received a printed report of the result of my five-months’
campaign on the Pacific coast. Out of sixty-four places on the Pacific
coast where I worked during five months, fifty-six churches have
sent in a report, one year after the campaign. There are two
churches which have received on confession of faith all converts
within one year, three churches took all but one, and thirteen
churches have taken in more than half of the converts during the
same period. Altogether, out of 1,773 in these fifty-six churches, 625
persons were taken into their respective churches within one year of
this campaign, and 382 persons were still under probation. So that
altogether 1,007 decisions should be regarded as the fruit of that
campaign.
And from Hawaii came another report, which is as follows: Out of
2,040 converts during a three-months’ campaign 245 persons were
taken into the different churches on confession of faith. I think these
figures show how sound are these decisions, especially when you
remember that the large majority of my audiences hear from me the
Gospel of Christ for the first time in their lives.
In many parts of America I have found great misunderstanding and
also gross misrepresentation of the present situation of the Christian
work in Japan. I hear even voices of discouragement. But I hope by
these statements out of my own experience those
misunderstandings and misrepresentations may be already cleared
up. I can say now with a good conscience and a firm assurance that
a great time has come for the evangelization of Japan. Indeed, “the
fields ... are white already to harvest.” Or, to change the figure, the
iron is so very hot that if you strike it at once you can make anything
you like out of it, but if you do not strike the iron will cool off, and
you can do nothing with it, so, you see, the evangelization of Japan
must be brought about quickly. And I believe it can be done if we do
our part; that is, if we, obeying the last command of Jesus, preach
the Gospel to every creature in the country. My experience shows
that if six persons hear the Gospel, at least one will accept it. Then,
if the whole sixty million can hear the Gospel, there will be a
possibility of gaining ten million souls for Christ at the present time
in Japan.
Seeing that such a wonderful opportunity presents itself before us, I
cannot help making a desperate effort for the salvation of my
people. So I have resolved, the Lord willing, to reach the whole
nation of sixty million with the Gospel of Jesus Christ within the next
ten or twenty years. But the question is, how can I reach so many
millions within so short a time? Of course, I cannot expect to do it
through preaching alone, and so I have decided upon another way;
that is, through the printed page.
For this purpose I have written a book in Japanese called “The
Christian Belief,” which contains twelve chapters: First, The One True
God; second, The Heavenly Father; third, The Sinfulness of Sin;
fourth, The Divine Judgment; fifth, The Reality of the Future World;
sixth, The Deity of Christ; seventh, Salvation Through the Cross;
eighth, Christian Consecration; ninth, Prayer; tenth, The Life of
Trust; eleventh, Bible Reading; twelfth, The One Soul Campaign.
If any one will read it through, he may be able to grasp at least the
outline of Christian doctrine, both theoretical and practical. Though
this is a small book of about two hundred pages, when I wrote it,
four years ago, I spent five months over it actually upon my knees
and fasting. And God has wonderfully blessed it. Within three years
after its publication over 150,000 copies have been printed. I call
these books my “printed preachers,” because they are doing the
same kind of work of leading souls to Christ in their own quiet way.
And now what I call the new plan of evangelization is this,—to put
this book in the hands of every Japanese, so that every soul in my
country shall have the opportunity of hearing the Gospel. And as the
book is written in such easy and simple language that even a child
can read it, any Japanese can read and understand it.
Very fortunately for the free distribution of this book, my Japanese
publisher, who is himself an earnest Christian, has kindly promised to
let me have it at five cents a copy, which, in these days of the high
cost of printing, is a great sacrifice on his part. So now, if I have one
nickel in my hand I can give away one book, and one man can hear
the Gospel message. And if I have sixty million nickels for this
purpose, I can send out at once sixty million “printed preachers”
throughout the whole Empire of Japan. This I think is the quickest
way at the present time to preach the Gospel of Jesus Christ to the
whole nation.
 CHAPTER V
SOWING IN THE EVENING

IN THE Student Volunteer Convention at Des Moines, Iowa, there

was a motto set up high on the platform: “The Evangelization of the
World in this Generation.”
When I saw that motto I said to myself, “This is the very objective,
so far as our country is concerned, we are now determined to
attain.”
We cannot wait until the next generation, which will have its own
work to carry on. The evangelization of the world must be the work
of this generation, and I believe that if the church of Christ at the
present day is really resolved to accomplish this great object, it can
surely be done in this generation. You have heard from the
missionaries returning from all parts of the world what wonderful
openings there are everywhere on the mission field. Not only in
Japan, but in China, in Korea, in India, in Africa, in South America,
and in all other heathen lands the doors are widely thrown open for
the Gospel message. The call from the heathen lands for
missionaries is now so loud and urgent that, if the churches will
really awaken to their opportunities and responsibilities, they cannot
help making a desperate effort for the immediate evangelization of
the whole world.
You have already heard those loud and urgent calls from the foreign
field through your own missionaries. Of course, they can represent
to you satisfactorily the condition of the heathen land where they
are working themselves. But if you could hear directly from the
heathen themselves, their need and their cry for your help, you
would perhaps get a better and keener idea of the urgency of such
calls. You know I come from a heathen land. And at one time I was
a heathen myself, and am still the subject of a heathen country. So I
ought to be better qualified to represent the heathen people, and to
furnish you with first hand information about the real situation of the
heathen world at the present time. And moreover, I believe I have a
right to represent not only my own heathen land, but also the whole
world. Because, though I love my own country very dearly, yet my
Christian heart is a little too big to confine itself to my own country
alone. I love China, I love India, I love Africa, just as much in regard
to the salvation of their souls as I love the salvation of my own
people. I always feel that if God wants me for a missionary in Africa,
I am more than ready to start at once. In our Christian love there
are no national boundaries or racial distinctions.
Thus representing the whole heathen world, I wish to make my
humble appeal to my Christian friends in America. Now may I be
permitted to speak plainly, freely, and unreservedly, though in deep
humility, how we of the heathen lands feel about foreign missionary
enterprises?
While thanking you from the bottom of my heart on behalf of my
heathen brethren for what you have already done, and are now
doing, for the evangelization of our benighted land, yet I cannot
refrain from asking, “Why can’t, or why won’t, you do more for the
evangelization of the whole world? Do you think that you have done,
and are doing, enough? Are you satisfied with the result you have
already attained? Are you really trying to fulfill the last command of
our Lord, ‘Go ye into all the world, and preach the gospel to every
creature,’ according to your ability or talents given from above? Are
you earnestly endeavoring to carry out that idea of ‘The
Evangelization of the World in this Generation’?”
Suppose in the last great European war America had sent out only a
few hundred thousand soldiers to France to fight with the Germans,
—do you think you could have beaten that country and saved the
world? Though the American soldiers may have been ever so brave
and gallant individually, yet what could a few hundred thousand
Americans do against millions of Germans and Austrians? But you
sent two millions, and were going to send more millions, to fight the
Germans. You not only spent a few millions of dollars, but several
billions. You not only gave up your men, but you gave up your white
bread and butter, your meat and sugar. You deprived yourselves of
comfort and luxury. You did not think any sacrifice too great for
gaining your object. In a word, you made the beating of Germany
and the saving of the world the supreme effort of your nation. This
was doing the work according to its magnitude, and you gained your
object.
Now turn your eyes to the work of your foreign missions, which is
the same as conquering the heathen lands for Jesus Christ. Do you
think conquering a whole heathen land for Christ is a smaller work
or easier task than conquering Germany? What is the heathen force
of the world at the present time? Taking the whole population of the
world as sixteen hundred millions, only a little less than six hundred
millions can be counted as the Christian population, and that, of
course, including several hundred million Roman and Greek
Catholics; and the rest, more than one billion, are among the so-
called heathen population of the world. In Japan and Korea we have
eighty million heathen; in China, four hundred million; in India, three
hundred and thirty million; in Africa, one hundred and fifty million;
and in all countries taken together the heathen population of the
world is over one billion. Now your foreign mission work is to
evangelize this heathen world. For this purpose, how strong an army
of Christian soldiers have you despatched? How many missionaries
have you already sent out? Are you doing this work of world
evangelization according to the magnitude of the task?
I know your missionaries. They are brave soldiers. They are gallant
fighters individually, and they are faithful even unto death for the
cause of their Lord. But what can this handful of a few thousand
missionaries do against the gigantic mass of a billion heathen? Do
you think they can evangelize the whole world in this generation?
No, no; this is not doing the work according to its magnitude.
I know the American people, and I love them, because I was
converted by the ministry of an American teacher, and was brought
up by the American missionaries. I regard America as my spiritual
fatherland. I feel perfectly at home in this country. Moreover, I
admire the true American spirit. When once that American spirit is
roused up, and you are determined to gain any object, you always
get it. Why won’t you send out, not only a few thousand, but a few
hundred thousand, Christian soldiers throughout the length and
breadth of the whole earth to fight with the Devil? Why won’t you
sacrifice once more your boys and girls, for this great conflict of
Christ and his enemies? In this war girls are just as good a fighting
force as boys, if not better. Why won’t you once more give up your
white bread and butter, your meat and sugar, and deprive yourselves
of your comfort and luxury for the cause of Christ? Why don’t you
spend, not only a few millions, but billions, or tens of billions, of
dollars for this great work of world evangelization? In a word, why
won’t you make this foreign mission work, which is the fulfilment of
the last command of Jesus Christ, the supreme effort of the Christian
churches in America, instead of treating it as a mere appendix to
your work at home?
America is blessed in every way. Yours is the strongest and
wealthiest, most intelligent and most enterprising, country in the
world. No country on earth can compete with you. But do you think,
my American friends, that God has blessed you so abundantly for
your own sake, for your own comfort and luxury, for your own
enjoyment and satisfaction alone? Do you think that God has so
wonderfully blessed you because you are his only favorite among all
the nations of the world? No, no; God has blessed America
wonderfully, not for America’s sake alone, but for the sake of the
whole world. He has blessed America to make her a blessing to the
world through the power of Christ.
Since I have come to this country your people call me by various
names, such as the Moody of Japan, or the Billy Sunday of Japan,
and so on; but I don’t like to be called by such great names. I am
not such a big man. I know I am a small man, not even worthy of
being called a minister of Christ, because I have backslidden and
forsaken my Lord for many years. Not only for such reasons, but
also because I have my own name I prefer to be called always by
that name, even though it be an unknown one. But it you insist on
calling me by any other than my own, I have one name by which I
should like to be called. That is, a Macedonian. I am like the
Macedonian in Paul’s vision. He came from heathen Europe to Asia,
and I came from heathen Asia to America; but the object of the
coming of these two Macedonians is the same, namely, to implore
the help of the Christians for the heathen lands.
Won’t you come and help us? Won’t you, my young American
friends, take up the sword of the Spirit, and march out from your
own beloved land into the sin-stricken, desolate heathen lands and
lay down your lives for the salvation of the billion heathen souls? Do
you realize that these billion heathen are all in need of salvation just
as much as you were? Don’t you know that the least of these is, in
the sight of God, just as precious as the soul of your own mother or
father, brother or sister? Do you think that God wants the salvation
of your kinsmen only, and not the salvation of these heathen? Oh, I
beg and entreat you, my dear American friends, to look upon this
billion of heathen souls with the eye of your heavenly Father and the
heart of your Lord Jesus Christ, who loved them and died for them.
Then you cannot help making a desperate effort for their salvation.
And I believe that if you American Christians will seriously and
earnestly take up the great work of evangelizing the world in this
generation, and will do the work according to its magnitude, God on
his part will surely bless you and your work, and the day of great
victory will be at hand.
“Not by might, nor by power, but by my Spirit, saith the Lord of
hosts.”
THE END
 TRANSCRIBER’S NOTE:
Obvious typographical errors have been corrected.
*** END OF THE PROJECT GUTENBERG EBOOK KANAMORI'S LIFE-
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