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Machine Learning for Time Series Forecasting with
Python 1st Edition Francesca Lazzeri Digital Instant
Download
Author(s): Francesca Lazzeri
ISBN(s): 9781119682363, 1119682363
Edition: 1
File Details: PDF, 3.44 MB
Year: 2020
Language: english
 Machine Learning for
Time Series Forecasting
with Python®
Francesca Lazzeri, PhD
Machine Learning for Time Series Forecasting with Python®

Copyright © 2021 by John Wiley & Sons, Inc., Indianapolis, Indiana

Published simultaneously in Canada

ISBN: 978-1-119-68236-3
ISBN: 978-1-119-68237-0 (ebk)
ISBN: 978-1-119-68238-7 (ebk)

Manufactured in the United States of America

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 About the Author

Francesca Lazzeri, PhD, is an experienced scientist and machine learning

practitioner with over a decade of both academic and industry experience. She
currently leads an international team of cloud AI advocates and developers at
Microsoft, managing a large portfolio of customers and building intelligent
automated solutions on the cloud.
Francesca is an expert in big data technology innovations and the applica-
tions of machine learning–based solutions to real-world problems. Her work
is unified by the twin goals of making better sense of microeconomic data
and using those insights to optimize firm decision making. Her research has
spanned the areas of machine learning, statistical modeling, and time series
econometrics and forecasting as well as a range of industries—energy, oil and
gas, retail, aerospace, healthcare, and professional services.
Before joining Microsoft, she was a research fellow at Harvard University
in the Technology and Operations Management Unit. Francesca periodically
teaches applied analytics and machine learning classes at universities and
research institutions around the world. You can find her on Twitter @frlazzeri.

iii
 About the Technical Editor

James York-Winegar holds a bachelor’s degree in mathematics and physics

and a master’s degree in information and data science. He has worked in aca-
demia, healthcare, and technology consulting. James currently works with
companies to enable machine learning workloads by enabling their data infra-
structure, security, and metadata management. He also teaches machine learning
courses at the University of California, Berkeley, focused on scaling up machine
learning technology for big data.
Prior to leaving academia, James originally was focused on the cross section
between experimental and theoretical physics and materials science. His research
was focused on photo-structural transformations of non-oxide glasses or chal-
cogenide glasses. This introduced James to processing extremely large amounts
of data and high-performance computing, where his work still leads him today.
James has had exposure to many industries through his consulting experience,
including education, entertainment, commodities, finance, telecommunications,
consumer packaged goods, startups, biotech, and technology. With this experi-
ence, he helps companies understand what is possible with their data and how
to enable new capabilities or business opportunities. You can find his LinkedIn
profile at linkedin.com/in/winegarj/.

v
 Acknowledgments

In the past few years, I had the privilege to work with many data scientists,
cloud advocates, developers, and professionals from Microsoft and Wiley: all
these people inspired me and supported me through the creation and writing of
this book. I am particularly grateful to the Cloud Advocacy team at Microsoft,
for their trust and encouragement and for making my job so much easier and
more enjoyable.
Thanks to Jim Minatel, associate publisher at John Wiley & Sons, who worked
with me since the beginning of the publishing process and acted as a bridge
between my work and the editorial staff. It was a pleasure to work with Pete
Gaughan, content enablement manager; with David Clark, project editor, who
managed the process that got us from outline to a finished manuscript; and
with Saravanan Dakshinamurthy, content refinement specialist, who managed
the last stages of this book development and made them go as smoothly as they
did. I appreciate the support and guidance provided by the technical reviewer,
James Winegar, and I hope we will work on other projects together in the future.
Last but not least, I will be forever grateful to my daughter, Nicole, who
reminds me of the goodness in this world and inspires me to be the greatest
version of myself; to my husband, Laurent, for his unconditional and endless
support, inspiration, and encouragement; to my parents, Andrea and Anna
Maria, and my brother, Marco, for always being there for me and believing in
me through all walks of my life.
—Francesca Lazzeri

vii
 Contents at a Glance

Acknowledgmentsvii
Introductionxv

Chapter 1 Overview of Time Series Forecasting 1

Chapter 2 How to Design an End-to-End Time Series Forecasting
Solution on the Cloud 29
Chapter 3 Time Series Data Preparation 61
Chapter 4 Introduction to Autoregressive and Automated
Methods for Time Series Forecasting 101
Chapter 5 Introduction to Neural Networks for Time Series Forecasting 137
Chapter 6 Model Deployment for Time Series Forecasting 167
References 197
Index199

ix
 Contents

Acknowledgmentsvii
Introductionxv

Chapter 1 Overview of Time Series Forecasting 1

Flavors of Machine Learning for Time Series Forecasting 3
Supervised Learning for Time Series Forecasting 14
Python for Time Series Forecasting 21
Experimental Setup for Time Series Forecasting 24
Conclusion26
Chapter 2 How to Design an End-to-End Time Series Forecasting
Solution on the Cloud 29
Time Series Forecasting Template 31
Business Understanding and Performance Metrics 33
Data Ingestion 36
Data Exploration and Understanding 39
Data Pre-processing and Feature Engineering 40
Modeling Building and Selection 42
An Overview of Demand Forecasting Modeling Techniques 44
Model Evaluation 46
Model Deployment 48
Forecasting Solution Acceptance 53
Use Case: Demand Forecasting 54
Conclusion58
Chapter 3 Time Series Data Preparation 61
Python for Time Series Data 62
Common Data Preparation Operations for Time Series 65
Time stamps vs. Periods 66

xi
xii Contents

Converting to Timestamps 69
Providing a Format Argument 70
Indexing71
Time/Date Components 76
Frequency Conversion 78
Time Series Exploration and Understanding 79
How to Get Started with Time Series Data Analysis 79
Data Cleaning of Missing Values in the Time Series 84
Time Series Data Normalization and Standardization 86
Time Series Feature Engineering 89
Date Time Features 90
Lag Features and Window Features 92
Rolling Window Statistics 95
Expanding Window Statistics 97
Conclusion98
Chapter 4 Introduction to Autoregressive and Automated
Methods for Time Series Forecasting 101
Autoregression102
Moving Average 119
Autoregressive Moving Average 120
Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average 122
Automated Machine Learning 129
Conclusion136
Chapter 5 Introduction to Neural Networks for Time Series Forecasting 137
Reasons to Add Deep Learning to Your Time Series Toolkit 138
Deep Learning Neural Networks Are Capable of Automatically
Learning and Extracting Features from Raw and
Imperfect Data 140
Deep Learning Supports Multiple Inputs and Outputs 142
Recurrent Neural Networks Are Good at Extracting
Patterns from Input Data 143
Recurrent Neural Networks for Time Series Forecasting 144
Recurrent Neural Networks 145
Long Short-Term Memory 147
Gated Recurrent Unit 148
How to Prepare Time Series Data for LSTMs and GRUs 150
How to Develop GRUs and LSTMs for Time Series Forecasting 154
Keras155
TensorFlow156
Univariate Models 156
Multivariate Models 160
Conclusion164
Chapter 6 Model Deployment for Time Series Forecasting 167
Experimental Set Up and Introduction to Azure
Machine Learning SDK for Python 168
 Contents xiii

Workspace169
Experiment169
Run169
Model170
Compute Target, RunConfiguration, and ScriptRun
Config171
Image and Webservice 172
Machine Learning Model Deployment 173
How to Select the Right Tools to Succeed with Model
Deployment175
Solution Architecture for Time Series Forecasting
with Deployment Examples 177
Train and Deploy an ARIMA Model 179
Configure the Workspace 182
Create an Experiment 183
Create or Attach a Compute Cluster 184
Upload the Data to Azure 184
Create an Estimator 188
Submit the Job to the Remote Cluster 188
Register the Model 189
Deployment189
Define Your Entry Script and Dependencies 190
Automatic Schema Generation 191
Conclusion196
References 197
Index199
Exploring the Variety of Random
Documents with Different Content
 CHAPTER XVII.
ALL-HALLOW-EVE.

ADIANT and beautiful October, whose changing color

heralds the approach of winter, gives us our first
autumn holiday, if Halloween can now be called a
holiday.
Before the Christian era, in the days of the
ancient Celts and their priests, the Druids, the eve of the first of
November was the time for one of the three principal festivals of the
year. The first of May was celebrated for the sowing; the solstice on
the twenty-first of June for the ripening, and the eve of the first of
November for the harvesting. At each of these festivals great fires
were built on the hill-tops in honor of the sun, which the people
worshipped. When Christianity took the place of the heathen
religion, the Church, instead of forbidding the celebration of these
days, gave them different meanings, and in this way the ancient
harvest-festival of the Celts became All-Hallow-Eve, or the eve of All-
Saints-Day, the first day of November having been dedicated to all of
the saints.
 Kaling.

For a long while most of the old customs of these holidays were
retained; then, although new ceremonies were gradually introduced,
Hallow-Eve remained the night of the year for wild, mysterious, and
superstitious rites. Fairies and all supernatural beings were believed
to be abroad at this time, and to exercise more than their usual
power over earthly mortals. Because the fairy folk were believed to
be so near us on Halloween, it was considered the best evening of
the season for the practice of magic, and the customs observed on
this night became mostly those of divination, by the aid of which it
was thought the future might be read.
Before proceeding further with this subject we desire our readers
to appreciate and fully understand that we are far from wishing to
inculcate any superstitious belief in the power of charms to forecast
future events; that we regard all fortune-telling as nonsense, pure
and simple, and only insert it here, as we would any other game, for
the sake of the amusement it affords. Although, to make our
descriptions more intelligible, we announce the results of charms as
facts, we would not have it understood that they are to be taken as
such.
Nowadays, so practical has the world become, no fairy, witch, or
geni could we conjure up, were we to practice all the charms and
spells ever known to soothsayer or seer. Our busy, common-sense
age allows no fairies to interfere with its concerns, and these
creatures, who existed only in the belief of the people, must needs
vanish, to return no more, when that belief is gone.
A few fortune-telling games are all that now remain of the weird
ceremonies that once constituted the rites of Halloween, and the
spirit of this old heathen holiday is once more changed, for it is now
considered only an occasion for fun and frolic.
It was the custom for quite a number of years of some friends of
the writer to give a Halloween party on each recurring Halloween;
and merrier, jollier parties than those were, it would not be easy to
devise. The home which opened wide its hospitable doors to the
favored few on this night is a country-house, large and spacious;
there is a basement under the whole lower floor, which is divided
into kitchen, laundry, and various store-rooms intersected with
passages, and this basement, deserted by the servants, was given
up to the use of the Halloween revellers. The rooms and passage-
ways were decorated with and lighted by Chinese lanterns, which
produced a subdued glow in their immediate vicinity, but left
mysterious shadows in nooks and corners.
 Putting aside conventionality and dignity as we laid aside our
wraps, ready for any fun or mischief that might be on hand, we
proceeded down-stairs and into the kitchen, where a large pot of
candy was found bubbling over the fire. This candy, poured into
plates half-full of nuts, was eaten at intervals during the evening,
and served to keep up the spirits of those who were inclined to be
cast down by the less pleasing of Fortune’s decrees. With plenty of
room and no fear of breaking or destroying anything, which is apt to
put a check upon frolics in the parlor, the company could give full
vent to their high spirits. Now in this room, now in that, again flitting
through the dim passages and around dark corners, each person
seemed to be everywhere at once, and although the party was
limited to about twenty-five, there appeared to be at least twice that
number present. Bursts of merry laughter and little screams of
pretended terror would announce, now and then, that some charm
was being gone through with and someone’s fortune being told. All
sorts of games were played, and the variety of our entertainment
made the evening pass very quickly. All too soon the hands of the
kitchen clock warned the guests that to reach home at a seasonable
hour they must put an end to their Halloween festivities. A number
of the following methods of telling fortunes were tried at these
parties, one might say with success, for we certainly succeeded in
accomplishing our main object, which was, to have a good time. By

Melted Lead
we used to ascertain what the occupation of one’s future husband
would be. The fortune is told in this way: Each girl, in turn, holds a
door-key in one hand, while with the other hand she pours the
melted lead, from an iron spoon or ladle, through the handle of the
key into a pan of cold water.
 In the fanciful shapes the lead assumes can be traced
resemblances to all sorts of things. Sometimes it is a sword or gun,
which indicates that a soldier will win the fair prize; again, traces of
a ship may be seen: then the favored one is to be a sailor; a plough
suggests a farmer; a book, a professor, or perhaps a minister; and
when the lead forms only drops, it seems to mean that the gentle
inquirer will not marry, or if she does, her husband will be of no
profession.

Nutshell Boats
foretell in a general way what their owner’s future life will be. They
should be prepared beforehand in this manner: Split an English
walnut directly in half, remove the kernel, and clear away any of the
partitions which may remain in the shell; then place a short piece of
heavy cotton string in the shell and pour around it melted beeswax.
Mould the wax into a cone shape around the string, as shown in Fig.
129, allowing the end to come out at the top. Fig. 130 shows what it
is like when finished.
The tapers first being lighted, several of these
little craft are launched at the same time, by their
respective owners, upon the sea of life, or, in
other words, in a tub of water.
When a light burns steadily until the wax is all
melted, and the frail bark safely rides the waves
(which are occasioned by stirring the water with a
stick, or shaking the tub from side to side), a
happy life is predicted, and a long one.
When two boats come in contact, it means that
their owners will meet and have mutual interests
some time during their lives.
If one boat crosses another’s path, it denotes that their owners
will do the same.
 If two boats come together and continue to sail about side by
side, their owners will in some way pass much of their lives together.
When a boat clings closely to the sides of the tub, refusing to sail
out into the centre, it shows that its owner will be a stay-at-home.
Touching often at the side of the tub is indicative of short
voyages; and extended travel is predicted when a boat seldom
touches the tub.
It depends a good deal upon the fancy and imagination of those
testing their fate how the antics of the little fleet are interpreted, and
the meanings given to the movements of the boats create no end of
fun.

“Three Luggies.”[C]
“In order, on the clean hearth-stane,
The luggies three are ranged,
And ev’ry time great care is ta’en
To see them duly changed.”
The three bowls, or dishes, one containing clear water, one milky,
and the other nothing at all, are placed in a row on the hearth-stone
or table, and the girl wishing to try her fortune is blindfolded and led
up to where the dishes stand. She is then told to put her left hand
into one of the bowls. If she dips her fingers in the clear water, she
will marry a bachelor; if in the milky water, a widower; and if into
the empty bowl, it is a sure sign that she will live in single
blessedness all her days.
This ceremony must be gone through with three times, and the
hand be dipped twice in the same bowl, in order to make the
prediction of any value.

Roasting Nuts
is the charm by which the friendship of anyone may be tested. The
applicant for knowledge on this point names two nuts, one for her
friend and the other for herself, and then places them side by side
upon the grate, or a shovel held over the fire. If they burn quietly, it
is prophetic of a long and happy friendship kept up by both parties;
but if in roasting they burst with a loud report and fly apart, they are
decidedly uncongenial, and should not seek much intercourse. The
movements of the nuts while heating are closely watched, for the
tempers of the persons for whom they are named is said to be thus
revealed.

Kaling
is a mode of telling one’s fortune not as well known, perhaps, as the
foregoing methods. The ceremony is carried out in the following
manner: Two girls are blindfolded and started off on the path to the
kitchen-garden and cabbage-patch, where each pulls up the first
stalk she finds. They then return at once to the house, where the
bandages are removed and the mysterious stalks examined.
According to the state of the stalk, so will be the gatherer’s fate.
If it is straight or crooked, large or small, so will the future husband
be; if it has a pleasant taste, or the reverse, the character of the
person will correspond, and the quantity of earth clinging to the
roots denotes whether their riches will be little or great.
When there are no cabbages at hand, almost any other garden
vegetable will answer; and if there be objections to going out-of-
doors, vegetables of various kinds, such as turnips, beets, and
parsnips, may be placed on a table, and the persons blindfolded can
choose from them. No doubt the charm will work as well with the
plants upon a table as when they are pulled from a kitchen-garden.

The Magic Mirror,

which is simply a hand-glass on ordinary occasions, and gains its
mysterious power only on Halloween, divulges, under certain
conditions, the delightful secret of how many bits of good-fortune
will fall to one’s share during the ensuing year. The conditions are
that the person wishing to know how bright her prospects are shall
go to an open window or door from which the moon is visible, and,
standing with her face in-doors, hold her mirror so that the moon
will be reflected in it. The number of moons she sees there betokens
the number of times something pleasant will happen to her before
the advent of another Halloween.

Three Tin Cups

partially filled with water are balanced on the small ends of three
funnels, which are placed in a row on the floor, about two feet apart.
Over these cups, one after another, each member of the party must
leap in turn. Whoever succeeds in leaping over all three cups without
knocking any of them off will make an early marriage. The person
who knocks over one will marry when not so young. The marriage of
the one who tips over two cups will be deferred until late in life, and
she who leaps none of them safely will not be married at all.
To guard against wet feet very little water should be put in the
cups—only enough to make the players careful about tipping them
over.

The Ring Cake

is always an object of interest at Halloween parties. The cake itself is
made like the ordinary kind, but before it is baked a plain gold ring is
hidden in the dough, not to be taken out until the cake is cut and it
falls to the share of the fortunate person in whose slice it happens to
be found. The ring is sometimes put in a flour-cake, which is simply
flour packed into a cake-mould so firmly that when it is turned out it
retains the shape of the mould and can be sliced off with a knife.
Each member of the party cuts her or his own section of flour, and
whoever secures the ring, it is confidently stated, will be the first of
the group to marry.
Some Halloween games apparently have no particular meaning
attached to them, but seem to be devised for the purpose of
creating as much fun as possible.

Bobbing for Apples

is, perhaps, familiar to most of our readers, but we give a
description of it here for the benefit of the few who may not know
the game so well.
In a large tub full of fresh, cold water several apples are placed,
and it is the object of the participators to take them out of the water
with their teeth.
As the rosy-cheeked, tempting fruit bobs about within easy reach,
it looks simple enough to secure a prize; but the apples are so round
and slippery, so aggravatingly illusive, that, unless you thrust your
head and neck beneath the cold water, regardless of consequences,
and drive an apple to the bottom, the feat cannot be accomplished.
The girls can seldom be induced to try their luck in this game, but
usually content themselves with looking on, immensely enjoying the
frantic endeavors of the boys to succeed at any cost.

The Apple and Candle Game

is another favorite sport for Halloween, and is played as follows:
From the ceiling is suspended a stout cord, the lower end of which is
securely tied to the centre of a stick about a foot and a half long. On
one end of the stick is fastened an apple, on the other a lighted
candle. The string is set in motion, swinging back and forth like a
pendulum, and the contestants for the prize stand ready, each in
turn, to make a grab for the apple, which must be caught in the
teeth before it can be won. Frequently the candle is caught instead
of the apple, which mishap sends the spectators off into shouts of
merriment; but although funny, it is at the same time a little
dangerous to catch a lighted candle in one’s teeth, and we would
suggest that a bag made of cheese-cloth, or like thin material, be
filled with flour and tied to the stick in place of the candle. When the
person essaying to snatch the fruit is struck in the face with the bag,
and is covered with flour instead of the glory anticipated, as much
mirth will result as can possibly arise when the old and dangerous
practice of using a candle is clung to.

The Ghostly Fire

should not be lit unless all of the party have strong nerves, for the
light it produces is rather unearthly, and may affect some members
unpleasantly. We, at our Halloween parties, never omitted this rite,
however, its very weirdness proving its strongest attraction. Salt and
alcohol were put in a dish, with a few raisins, and set on fire. As
soon as the flame leaped up we clasped hands and gayly danced
around the table, upon which burned our mystic fire. The laughing
eyes and lips looked in strange contrast to the pale faces of their
owners, from which the greenish light had taken every vestige of
color. The dance was not prolonged, for it was our duty, before the
fire was spent, to snatch from the flames the raisins we had put in
the dish. This can be done, if one is careful, without as much as
scorching the fingers, and I never knew of anyone burning
themselves while making the attempt.

Trying for a Raisin

is a very laughable performance. The raisin, which must be a good-
sized one, is strung on and pushed exactly to the middle of a soft
cotton string about one yard long. Two aspirants for the prize then
take each an end of the string, which they put in their mouths and
commence to chew, taking it up as fast as they can—the raisin
falling to the share of the person who succeeds in reaching it first.

A Lighted Candle
is again used in a game which is exceedingly amusing. The candle is
placed upon a table in full view of everyone; then one of the players
is blindfolded, turned around several times, and set free to seek for
the candle and blow out the light, if possible.
To see girls, with their hands clasped behind them, going crazily
about the room, blowing at anything and everything, is very
ludicrous. They seldom find the candle, and even when the table is
reached it is difficult to blow in such a direction as to extinguish the
flame.

The Fairy’s Gifts

are suggested as a new and original ending of a Halloween frolic.
The Fairy Godmother, in Mother Hubbard costume, carries a large
basket under her cloak or shawl. She enters the room and
announces that she has a certain number of gifts which she
proposes to distribute among the company. After cautioning all that
the contents must be kept secret, she passes to each person a
folded paper. On one is written “Wealth,” on another “Honor,” on the
third “Fame,” etc., and some of the papers are left blank.
Those whose papers contain the names of gifts are then
blindfolded, preparatory to receiving their behests.
The first is led up and made to kneel before the Fairy Godmother,
to whom she repeats these words:
Most gracious Fairy, the gift you give
I shall treasure and keep as long as I live.
 Then the paper containing the name of the gift is handed the
Fairy, who reads it aloud very solemnly: “Wealth”—and, turning to
her basket, she takes from it a new dust-pan, to which is attached a
ribbon-loop, at the same time reciting these lines:
Your choice is bad when you intrust
Your happiness where moth and rust,
In time, turn all your wealth to dust.
From a paper-bag the Fairy pours a small amount of dust over the
kneeling girl, and hangs the dust-pan around her neck.
The next person who has drawn a prize is then brought forward
and the performance is repeated, only altering the Fairy’s speech.
For “Honor,” she will say:
Your honor crowds shall loud declare,
But in your heart, no crowd is there,
You’ll find, like Falstaff, “honor’s air.”
The present here is a pair of bellows, from which the Fairy blows
a blast on the bowed head before her as she utters the word air.
The bellows, like the dust-pan, are hung by a ribbon around the
recipient’s neck.
For “Fame,” the Fairy gives a wreath of roses, and says, as she
adjusts the crown:
When Fame doth weave a laurel-wreath,
He weaves this subtle charm beneath;
“For every evil thought that’s born
The laurel grows a prickly thorn;
But where pure thought and love reposes,
The laurel-wreath’s a wreath of roses.”
Buckeye Portière.
 CHAPTER XVIII.
NATURE’S FALL DECORATIONS, AND HOW TO
USE THEM.

HESE beautiful decorations are free to all who care to

possess them. Every autumn comes to us laden with
ornaments which no skilled workman can rival. The
graceful golden-rod, so rich in color, sways and bends
over the low stone walls, and in the fields wild flowers of all
kinds grow in great profusion. White, spreading wild carrot,
yellow and white daisies, light and dark purple asters, and
sumach, with its varied hues, give color to the landscape on our
bright fall days. There are also the queer-shaped pods and feathery,
silky seeds peculiar to some wild plants; among others the poor
“vagabond thistle,” which has donned its robe of glistening white,
although some of its tribe still wear their faded purple gowns. The
latter may be gathered for thistle-puffs, and all the objects
mentioned can be used in home decorations.
We cannot pass by unnoticed the brown milk-weed pods, for
within the shells, full well we know, are hidden the silvery, downy
seeds which make such pretty milk-weed balls. Here, too, we notice
the rich coloring of bark as well as foliage, the bright scarlet berries
contrasting with the brown, yellow, and green leaves. The vine, once
a fresh green, is now changed to deep crimson; even the tiny leaves
of the wild strawberry and some grasses have touches of red on
their edges.
How the rich coloring of autumn differs from the delicate tints of
spring, when the promise was made in bud and leaf, which is now
realized in the bountiful harvests!
Having such a wealth to glean from, we scarcely know what to
take first; but for decorations to last only a few hours it would be
difficult to imagine anything more brilliantly appropriate than

Fresh Autumn Wild Flowers

and small branches of brilliant fall leaves. At the time of this writing
wild flowers are very popular; one of our daily papers records a
wedding which recently took place, where the display of wild flowers
was beautiful in the extreme. Curtains of wood-ferns were caught
back with golden-rod, and a bower of holly and oak was fringed with
clusters of scarlet bitter-sweet berries. Daisies were also used in
abundance, while the beauty of the little church was enhanced by
the masses of white blossoms and oak-branches.
This idea can be used advantageously in decorating the house for
evening parties and receptions, or afternoon teas and coffees. Have
the flowers and foliage in masses, the effect is much better; and if
you gather very large, hardy ferns with their roots attached they will
make exceedingly graceful decorations, and placed in water or wet
sand they will remain fresh for days.
When golden-rod is gathered in its prime it will keep nearly all
winter without fading. Do not put it in water; all that is necessary is
to keep it dry. The rich brown cat-tails should be treated in the same
manner; these must be gathered at their best, before they are too
ripe. Bitter-sweet berries will last for months and retain a bright red.
The old-fashioned honesty, with its white, satiny pods, keeps
perfectly for any length of time. The wild rose-bush in the fall is
decked with seed-coverings, which closely resemble scarlet berries;
these will last for many weeks. The wild clematis, with its festoons of
hazy fluff, will keep for a long time, and always looks well when
thrown over and on the top corner of a portière and allowed to hang
naturally down a little on one side, or arranged in a similar manner
over the tops of windows, doors, pictures, or wherever it will look
graceful. It should hang out of harm’s way, as it is brittle and easily
broken when dry.
For entertainments, the
more elaborate and bountiful
the decorations of fresh wild
flowers the more beautiful will
the house appear; but for
every-day life during the cold
weather, when we have only
the dried fall plants, we may
almost make up for the lack of
fresh flowers by using
judgment and taste in
arranging the dried ones.
Though wild flowers are
beautiful, you must use taste in
their arrangement and not
mingle them together
promiscuously, but make a
judicious selection, for where a
light bunch of golden-rod
would be the very thing
needed to give color to a particular spot, should the dark cat-tails be
placed there the effect might be lost. There are places where some
high, stiff decoration would look best, and others where the soft,
swaying clematis seems to belong. As with everything else, so with
our decorations, we must seek to have harmony.
Who has not admired the dark-brown, glossy buckeyes and horse-
chestnuts, and wondered what use could be made of them? Children
love to
gather
them
and
come
home
with
their
pockets
and
baskets full, only to play with them for awhile, and then the pretty
dark balls, each marked with a spot of light cream-color, are thrown
away or lost.
Now, the next time the buckeyes are collected save every one
and make a

Buckeye Portière.
The writer assures you that you will find it much easier to do this
than she did to make a picture of the curtain, for it is difficult with a
pen-and-ink drawing to give an idea of the richness of color in the
handsome hangings these horse-chestnuts make when properly
fashioned into a portière for hall or doorway. Two full bushels of
buckeyes will be needed to make a curtain two yards and a half long
and one yard and a quarter wide.
Take a very large, long needle and a strong, waxed thread a little
longer than you desire to have your curtain, make a large knot in the
end of the thread, and commence to string your buckeyes in the
same way as stringing beads or buttons. Continue until the thread in
the needle is exhausted, then tie the thread in a large knot close to
the last buckeye, leaving a length of three inches of thread. Make
your other strands in the same way. When all are finished, fasten as
many small screw-eyes in a straight line on a curtain-pole, or a rustic
pole if desired, as there are strands of buckeyes, and tie securely to
each screw-eye one string of buckeyes. When all are fastened on,
your portière is finished and ready to be hung. This is easily
accomplished if the pole used is a regular curtain-pole, as they
always come with brackets; but should your pole be rustic, it must
be supported by bands of strong birch-bark, or leather, as in Fig.
131. Our illustration shows over the portière a

Birch-Bark Support for Pole.

Panel of Fall Decorations.

These also look handsome over windows and doors, and you are
at liberty to use ornaments of all styles, for the panels are placed
where there is no danger of anything coming in contact with them to
break off the decorations or mar their beauty. Any kind of board will
do for the panel, rough or smooth, as you like. Paint the board a
pure white, then decide on your ornaments, which may be a
chestnut-branch with bursting burs attached, sprays of common
wayside velvet-leaf with clusters of pods clinging to them, a piece of
black-berry vine with its twigs, thorns, and dried berries, or branches
of buckeyes with some of the nuts falling from their horned shells.
Select according to your fancy, and gild the decorations chosen,
then tack them on the panel. It is best to place the ornaments on
the board while the paint is soft and wet, for then it will help to
fasten the decoration more securely; if the paint be put on thick
where the ornaments are to be placed, they will lie partially
embedded in the paint, and when it dries they will appear as if
carved from the wood.[D]
A white and gold panel made in this way is very pretty and
inexpensive.
The fall decorations also enable us to make a very effective
 Louis Quinze Screen.
For this it is necessary to have two small
wooden hoops, such as children roll along
the streets; fasten these together with a
strong piece of white tape, two or three
inches wide, cut the end of the tape bias,
tack this on the side of one of the hoops,
bring it around between and over the other
hoop, and tack it again, repeat the
operation and the hinge will be finished
(Fig. 132). If you look at the hinge on a
wooden clothes-horse you will understand
how to make one. Fig. 133 shows the
hoops fastened together. Now cut two
pieces of coarse, strong cotton cloth, a
little larger around than the hoops, and
place one of the pieces smoothly over one
Hinge for Louis Quinze
of the hoops; tack it down, driving the
Screen. tacks in far apart, and so that they can be
easily extracted; if the cloth wrinkles, keep
changing it
until the
surface is
perfectly
even; when
this is
accomplished
carefully tack
the covering
securely
down,
keeping it Hoops Fastened Together for Louis Quinze Screen.
smooth and
without wrinkles. In like manner tack the remaining piece of cloth on
the other hoop. Next get four broomsticks and cut a notch on each
one, at exactly the same distance from the top, for the hoops to fit
in. Then measure where you wish the hoops to be placed and cut
another notch on each stick a certain distance from the bottom; all
the sticks must be of the same length and have the notches cut in
the same places, so each one may be a duplicate of the others. Mark
the hoops where the sticks are to fit, and then fasten them firmly on
with small screws. Make the screen strong, so that there will not be
any danger of its coming apart. Give each cloth a sizing of common
flour-paste on both sides, then scrape off all the paste with a knife;
in this way the cloth will be starched and prepared to receive the
paint. When the screen is thoroughly dry, sew a branch across one
of the disks and some waxed fall leaves in the places where they
would naturally lie on the branch; when these are securely attached,
decorate the other disk with something different; acorns can be used
if cut in halves; but never place any ornaments on the screen which
will not lie flat, for if they stand out they will be broken off or injured
by persons passing and brushing against them. Now give the screen
a coat of white paint all over, including the branch and leaves, but do
not paint the hinge. Set the screen away until it is perfectly dry, then
gild the branches and leaves, connecting the latter with the twigs by
painting a line of gold between the two. Gild a ring around each pole
near the top and another near the bottom, and cover the edges of
the hoops where the cloth has been fastened on by tacking white
gimp around each one, using fancy brass-headed tacks and placing
them at equal distances apart; this completes the ornamental
screen.
 Louis Quinze Screen.

Should you desire it, the screen can be painted black or any other
color, and the decorations bronzed instead of gilded. The bronzes
come in different shades, and the color of real bronze can be easily
copied.

A Panel of Field-Corn
As an ornament for the dining-room is very decorative and easy
to make. When the corn ripens, select some nice, firm, golden ears,
with husks and without; then break off pieces of cornstalk and group
them together, as in the illustration; cover a board of requisite size
with a piece of old black velvet; if you have no velvet, paint the
board black, and after tying the corn firmly together, tack it securely
on the board, and the dark background will bring out the many
yellow tints of the decoration beautifully; fasten two screw-eyes in
the back of the board, by
which to attach the wire,
and the panel will be
ready to hang on the
wall.
The corn can also be
fastened to a rough
board of the desired size
and the panel and
decoration bronzed,
using green bronze for
the background and
portions of the group,
while all the edges and
prominent points should
be of copper-colored
bronze.
Early in November the
many varieties of gourds
ripen, and their odd and
fantastic forms seem like
nature’s suggestions of
the unique in
ornamentation. So
suggestive are they that
it needs but little
originality to make them
into many useful and
beautiful articles. As a
decoration for looping
over the poles of
portières, and for holding back draperies, these

Ornamental Gourds
are convenient. They must first be allowed to become perfectly dry;
then they can be made into tasselled festoons. Take six mock-
oranges, which imitate so closely our real oranges in color, size, and
form, and cut a hole about the size of a silver dime in the top and
bottom of each one; then shake out the seeds. To make the
openings in the gourds, first bore a small hole with the point of a
large needle, then twist the needle around and around until it will
easily pass through. Next, carefully enlarge the opening with a sharp
penknife until it is of the stated size. Make a rope two yards and a
half long of Persian colored wools or worsted; on the end fasten a
slender tassel, six or seven inches long, made of the same worsted;
now string one of the bright orange-gourds on the rope down
against the tassel, which should be large enough to prevent the
gourd from slipping off; make another similar tassel, and attach it to
the rope about twelve inches from the first one, and thread another
gourd on the rope, bringing it down against the second tassel;
proceed in like manner with the remaining gourds, making a tassel
for each one, and you will have a decoration unlike any to be found
elsewhere.
We are all more or less familiar with the

Gourd-Dippers
so common in the South, where, in olden times, scarcely a spring
bubbled in a rustic nook that was not supplied with its drinking-
gourd. These dippers are made by sawing an opening in the large
part of the gourd, scraping out the contents, and making the inside
as smooth as possible with sand-paper. They need no
ornamentation.
The kind of gourds resembling flattened globes can be made into
graceful and unique

Bowls.
 The gourds must be sawed into two parts, with the inside of each
sand-papered, and flowers painted, with oil-colors, on the outside.
After they have thoroughly dried, give a coat of white varnish to
both the inside and outside. A pretty

Bonbon-Box
can be fashioned of one of these gourds. Saw off the top, which will
serve as a lid, and fasten it to the bowl with narrow ribbons tied
through holes at the back of each; line both lid and box with satin by
gluing it along the edges with stiff glue put on sparingly, and cover
the raw edge of the satin with chenille; this is also put on with a
little glue. Do not allow the chenille to interfere with the closing of
the box, but place it along the inside edge of the box and lid.
Another form is the

Bottle-Gourd.
Ornament this with ivy-leaves painted as if twined around bowl
and neck, and when the paint is dry varnish the gourd all over; if
you wish it for use as well as decoration, saw off the top about two
or three inches deep, shake out the seeds, then fit a cork in the
piece cut off, and so glue it in that the cork may extend an inch
downward to fit in the bottle.
The large egg-shaped gourds look well as

Vases.
 Foot Bent Down.

Wire Twisted for Feet

of Gourd-Vase. Finished Wire Feet for Gourd-
Vase.

Select a deep-colored gourd, saw off the top and scrape out the
inside; then varnish the vase and mount it on feet of twisted wire,
made according to Fig. 134; bend down the feet, as in Fig. 135,
when the wire will be formed into Fig. 136. To fasten this on the
vase, first bore holes in the bottom of the gourd, then sew the feet
firmly on, passing the needle through the holes previously made and
bending the wire a little to fit to the gourd. Gild the wire feet, and
your vase is finished. Another way is to save the top sawed off,
fasten an ornament of twisted wire on the top of it, and then, after
making the vase as the one just described, add bands of gilded
cardboard made to fit the gourd, fastening them to the vase with
glue. Handles can also be fashioned of cardboard and sewed to the
upper band before it is glued to the vase, as in the illustration.
 Ornamental and Useful Gourds.

There are many other ways of utilizing gourds, but we will leave it
to your ingenuity to think up new and pretty conceits.
Pine-cones, large and small, acorns, and balls from the sweet-
gum tree, can be used as

Small Decorations.
Never try to fasten them by the natural stems, for these will soon
break off, but place in each one a small screw-eye, and when tied in
groups they form ornaments for waste-baskets and fancy baskets of
all kinds. We have seen chandeliers with gilded cones hanging from
the different points, and being the identical color of the chandelier,
they seemed of the same metal, and added novelty and grace to its
appearance.
There are some varieties of the tree-fungi which make dark, rich-
colored

Brackets.
Use heavy cardboard or thin board as a covering for the back;
have this fit the fungus perfectly, and fasten it securely in position
with very stiff glue or nails. Paint the back the same color as the
fungus, and on either side of the upper edge place screw-eyes by
which to fasten up the bracket.
Many of the curiously formed galls and oak-apples to be found on
different trees can also be employed as ornaments.
Nothing can be finer than our brilliant autumn season, which is
said to be more beautiful in this than in other countries, with its
crisp mornings and bright sunny afternoons.
When the weather is too lovely to remain in-doors, and all nature
invites us out, then is the time to gather our fall decorations.
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