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WILLIAM E. GRIFFITHS R. CARTER HILL G U AY C . L I M
RANDALL C. CAMPBELL
Mississippi State University
ii
Carter Hill dedicates this work to Melissa Waters, his
loving and very patient wife.
Copyright ¤ 2012, 2008, 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. All rights reserved.
No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system or transmitted in any form or by
any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording, scanning or otherwise, except as permitted
under Sections 107 or 108 of the 1976 United States Copyright Act, without either the prior written
permission of the Publisher, or authorization through payment of the appropriate per-copy fee to the
Copyright Clearance Center, 222 Rosewood Drive, Danvers, MA 01923, (508) 750-8400, fax (508) 750-
4470. Requests to the Publisher for permission should be addressed to the Permissions Department, John
Wiley & Sons, Inc., 605 Third Avenue, New York, NY 10158-0012, (212) 850-6011, fax (212) 850-6008, E-
Mail: PERMREQ@WILEY.COM.
ISBN 0-471-111-803209-1
Printed in the United States of America
10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1
iii
PREFACE
SAS (www.sas.com) describes itself as “…the leader in business intelligence and predictive
analytics software.” Its users
• Include 96 of the top 100 companies on the 2006 Fortune Global 500 List.
• More than 43,000 business, government and university sites rely on SAS.
• Organizations in 113 different countries use SAS.
The wide use of SAS in business, government and education means that by learning to use SAS
for econometrics, you will be adding a valuable skill whether your goal is a graduate degree or
work in the private or public sector.
From the point of view of learning econometrics, SAS is very useful as it has powerful built-
in commands for many types of analyses, superb graphics, and is a language in which users can
construct specialized programs of their own.
Our goal is to provide the basics of using SAS for standard econometric analyses. Using SAS
for Econometrics provides a relatively concise and easy to use reference. We provide clear and
commented code, with the SAS output, which we have edited to as leave it recognizable, but
including less spacing few headers than the actual output. The SAS data sets and complete
program files used in this book can be found at
http://www.principlesofeconometrics.com/poe4/usingsas.htm
The programs in this book assume that the default SAS directory contains all the SAS files for
data in Principles of Econometrics, 4e (Hill, Griffiths and Lim, 2011, John Wiley and Sons, Inc.)
There are a tremendous number of other resources available for learning SAS. Google
“Learning SAS” and you will find more than one-half million hits. Appendix 1A is “A Guide to
Using SAS Help and Online Documentation,” which gives perspectives on SAS Help systems.
A supplement such as this is actually quite essential for use in a classroom environment, for
those attempting to learn SAS, and for quick and useful reference. The SAS documentation
comes in many volumes, and several are thousands of pages long. This makes for a very difficult
challenge when getting started with SAS. The previously published Learning SAS: A Computer
Handbook for Econometrics (Hill, John Wiley & Sons, 1993) is now difficult to obtain, and out
of date.
The design of the book will be such that it is not tied exclusively to Principles of
Econometrics, 4e (Hill, Griffiths and Lim, 2011, John Wiley and Sons, Inc.). It will follow the
outline of Principles of Econometrics, 4e, and will use Principles of Econometrics, 4e data and
empirical examples from the book, but we have included enough background material on
econometrics so that instructors using other texts could easily use this manual as a supplement.
The volume spans several levels of econometrics. It will be suitable for undergraduate
students who will use “canned” SAS statistical procedures, and for graduate students who will
use advanced procedures as well as direct programming in SAS’s matrix language, discussed in
chapter appendices. Our general strategy has been to include material within the chapters that is
accessible to undergraduate and or Masters students, with appendices to chapters devoted to more
advanced materials and matrix programming.
iv
Chapter 1 introduces elements of SAS. Chapters 2-4 discuss estimation and use of the simple
linear regression model. Chapter 3’s appendix introduces the concept of Monte Carlo
experiments, and Monte Carlo experiments are used to study the properties of the least squares
estimators and tests based on them in data generation processes with both normal and non-normal
errors.
Chapters 5 and 6 discuss the multiple linear regression model: the estimators, tests and
predictions. Chapter 5 appendices cover (A) a Monte Carlo experiment demonstrating the
properties of the delta method; (B) an introduction to matrix and vector operations using
SAS/IML and (C) SAS/IML code for the linear regression model and hypothesis testing. Chapter
7 deals with indicator variables, introduces the Chow test, the idea of a fixed effect and also
treatment effect models.
Chapter 8 discusses heteroskedasticity, its effects on the least squares estimator, robust
estimation of standard errors, testing for heteroskedasticity, modeling heteroskedasticity and the
implementation of generalized least squares. There are four appendices to Chapter 8: (A) Monte
Carlo experiments with heteroskedastic data, (B) two-step feasible GLS, (C) multiplicative
heteroskedasticity and (D) maximum likelihood estimation of the multiplicative
heteroskedasticity model. The last appendix covers aspects of numerical optimization calls from
PROC IML.
Chapter 9 discusses dynamic models including finite distributed lags, autocorrelation and
autoregressive distributed lag models. This is the introduction to time-series data and the focus is
on stationary series, with an emphasis on testing, estimating and forecasting. Appendices to
Chapter 9 include estimation using PROC ARIMA in 9A. Appendix 9B includes PROC IML
code for generalized least squares estimation of an AR(1) error model.
Chapters 10 and 11 deal with random regressors and the failure of least squares estimation.
Chapter 10 first introduces the use of instrumental variables with simulated data. The method for
simulating the data is explained in Appendix 10A. The first section of Chapter 10 discusses tests
of endogeneity and the validity of over identifying restrictions and the consequences of weak
instruments. A second example uses Mroz’s wage data for married women. Appendix 10B
includes SAS/IML code for 2SLS including the Cragg-Donald statistic used for testing weak
instruments, Appendix 10C uses a Monte Carlo experiment to examine the consequences of weak
instruments, and Appendix 10D introduces robust 2SLS and the generalized method of moments.
Chapter 11 introduces 2SLS and LIML estimation of simultaneous equations models, and only
briefly mentions systems estimation methods. The appendix to Chapter 11 uses Monte Carlo
experiments to study the properties of LIML and Fuller’s modifications. SAS/IML code for the
LIML estimator are included in this appendix.
Chapters 12-14 cover several topics involving time-series estimation with nonstationary data.
Chapter 12 focuses on testing for unit roots and cointegration using Dickey-Fuller tests. Chapter
13 discusses estimation of vector error correction and vector autoregressive models. Chapter 14
focuses on macroeconomic and financial models with time varying volatility or conditional
heteroskedasticity. This chapter introduces the ARCH and GARCH models as well as several
extensions of these models.
Chapter 15 treats panel data models, including the pooled least squares estimator with cluster
corrected standard errors, the fixed and random effects estimators, with some detailed explanation
of the within transformation. The Breusch-Pagan test for random effects and the Hausman test for
endogeneity are covered. Seemingly unrelated regressions are discussed and an example given.
Chapter 15 appendices include SAS/IML code for pooled regression, the estimation details of
variance components, robust fixed effects estimation and the Hausman-Taylor model. Chapter 16
covers the array of qualitative and limited dependent variable models, probit, logit, multinomial
v
and conditional logit, ordered choice, count data models, tobit models and selectivity models. The
appendix to Chapter 16 again takes the opportunity to cover maximum likelihood estimation, this
time in the context of probit.
Following the book Chapters are two short Appendices, A and B, that serve as a reference for
commonly used functions in SAS and probability distributions and random number generation.
Appendix C is a pedagogic coverage of the estimation and hypothesis testing in the context of the
model of the mean. Several sections outline the maximum likelihood estimation and inference
methods in one parameter and two parameter models. Bill Greene kindly allowed us the use of his
exponential and gamma distribution example for which we provide SAS/IML code.
The authors would like to especially thank Michelle Savolainen for careful comments, as well
as Michael Rabbitt, Lee Adkins, Genevieve Briand and the LSU SAS workshop participants. A
reader from the SAS Institute provided useful guidance on an early draft. Of course we could not
have done this without the support of Bill Griffiths and Guay Lim, co-authors of Principles of
Econometrics, 4th Edition.
R. Carter Hill
eohill@lsu.edu
Randall C. Campbell
rcampbell@cobilan.msstate.edu
September 1, 2011
vi
BRIEF CONTENTS
1. Introducing SAS 1
2. The Simple Linear Regression Model 50
3. Interval Estimation and Hypothesis Testing 82
4. Prediction, Goodness-of-Fit, and Modeling Issues 103
5. The Multiple Regression Model 130
6. Further Inference in the Multiple Regression Model 162
7. Using Indicator Variables 190
8. Heteroskedasticity 207
9. Regression with Time-Series Data: Stationary Variables 264
10. Random Regressors and Moment-Based Estimation 304
11. Simultaneous Equations Models 346
12. Regression with Time-Series Data: Nonstationary Variables 369
13. Vector Error Correction and Vector Autoregressive Models 390
14. Time-Varying Volatility and ARCH Models 406
15. Panel Data Models 428
16. Qualitative and Limited Dependent Variable Models 468
Appendix A. Math Functions 522
Appendix B. Probability 528
Appendix C. Review of Statistical Inference 541
vii
CONTENTS 1.14
1.13.2 Adding labels 30
Using PROC SORT 31
1.14.1 PROC PRINT with BY 31
1.14.2 PROC MEANS with BY 32
1.14.3 PROC SORT on two variables
32
1. Introducing SAS 1 1.14.4 Sort in descending order 33
1.1 The SAS System 1 1.15 Merging data sets 33
1.2 Starting SAS 1 Appendix 1A A guide to SAS help and
1.3 The opening display 1 online documentation 34
1.4 Exiting SAS 3 1A.1 SAS command line 35
1.5 Using Principles of Econometrics, 4E 1A.2 SAS help 35
data files 3 1A.3 SAS online documentation
1.5.1 Data definition files 4 37
1.6 A working environment 4 1A.4 SAS online examples 40
1.7 SAS Program structure 6 1A.5 Other resources 40
1.7.1 SAS comment statements 6 Appendix 1B Importing data into SAS 41
1.7.2 Creating a SAS program 7 1B.1 Reading ASCII data 41
1.7.3 Saving a SAS program 8 1B.2 Reading an external ASCII file
1.7.4 Running a SAS program 9 42
1.7.5 Printing data with PROC 1B.3 Importing data in Excel format
PRINT 10 47
1.7.6 Saving SAS output 12
1.7.7 Opening SAS programs 15
1.8 Summary Statistics using PROC 2. The Simple Linear Regression Model 50
MEANS 15 2.1 Econometric model and estimators 50
1.9 Making errors in SAS programs 17 2.2 Example: the food expenditure data 52
1.9.1 Typing errors 18 2.3 Scatter diagram using PROC GPLOT
1.9.2 The SAS semi-colon “;” 18 53
1.10 SAS Graphics: A scatter diagram 19 2.4 Using PROC REG for simple regression
1.10.1 PROC PLOT 19 54
1.10.2 PROC GPLOT 20 2.4.1 Analysis of variance table 54
1.11 Creating or modifying data sets 22 2.4.2 ANOVA auxiliary information
1.11.1 The SET statement 22 56
1.11.2 Using DROP and KEEP 22 2.4.3 PROC MEANS options 56
1.12 Creating new variables 23 2.5 PROC REG options 57
1.12.1 Arithmetic operators 23 2.5.1 Covariance matrix 57
1.12.2 Comparison operators 24 2.5.2 The least squares residuals
1.12.3 Logical operators 25 58
1.12.4 Using SAS functions 25 2.5.3 Output residuals 58
1.12.5 Missing values 26 2.5.4 PROC UNIVARIATE analysis
1.12.6 Using IF-THEN to recode of residuals 59
variables 26 2.6 Prediction with PROC REG 60
1.12.7 Creating a data subset 27 2.6.1 Deleting missing values from
1.12.8 Using SET to combine data data set 62
sets 27 2.6.2 Plotting a fitted line using
1.13 Using SET to open SAS data sets 28 PROC GPLOT 63
1.13.1 Using SAS system options 2.7 Creating plots using PROC REG 63
29 2.8 SAS ODS graphics 64
2.9 Fitting nonlinear relationships 66 4. Prediction, Goodness-of-Fit, and Modeling
2.10 Using indicator variables 70 Issues 103
Appendix 2A Calculation of least squares 4.1 Least squares prediction theory
estimates: Details 71 103
Appendix 2B Monte Carlo simulation 75 4.2 Least squares prediction example 104
2B.1 The true estimator variance 4.3 Measuring goodness-of-fit 108
76 4.4 Residual analysis 109
2B.2 Regression on artificial data 4.4.1 Using PROC AUTOREG
77 112
2B.3 OUTEST from PROC REG 4.5 SAS ODS graphics 113
78 4.5.1 The SAS Image Editor 114
2B.4 Simulating samples using 4.5.2 ODS plots 115
do-loops 79 4.6 Nonlinear relationships 118
2B.5 Summarizing parameter 4.7 Log-linear models 122
estimates 79 4.7.1 A growth model 122
4.7.2 A wage equation 124
4.7.3 Prediction in the log-linear
3. Interval Estimation and Hypothesis Testing model 127
82
3.1 Interval estimation 82
3.1.1 Interval estimation details 84 5. The Multiple Regression Model 130
3.2 Hypothesis testing theory 85 5.1 Multiple regression theory and methods
3.2.1 Right tail t-tests 86 130
3.2.2 Left tail t-tests 86 5.2 Multiple regression example 132
3.2.3 Two-tail t-tests 86 5.2.1 Using PROC REG 133
3.2.4 The p-value for t-tests 87 5.2.2 Using PROC AUTOREG
3.3 Hypothesis testing examples 87 136
3.3.1 Right tail test of significance 5.2.3 Using PROC MODEL 136
87 5.3 Polynomial models 137
3.3.2 Right tail test for an economic 5.3.1 Using PROC REG 138
hypothesis 88 5.3.2 Using PROC MODEL 138
3.3.3 Left tail test of an economic 5.4 Log-linear models 139
hypothesis 89 5.4.1 Using PROC REG 140
3.3.4 Two tail test of an economic 5.4.2 Using PROC MODEL 141
hypothesis 90 Appendix 5A The delta method in PROC
3.3.5 Two tail test of significance MODEL 142
91 5A.1 Monte Carlo study of delta
3.4 Testing and estimating linear method 143
combinations 91 Appendix 5B Matrix operations 147
3.4.1 PROC MODEL 92 5B.1 Vector concepts 148
Appendix 3A Monte Carlo simulation 94 5B.2 Matrix concepts 149
3A.1 Summarizing interval Appendix 5C Regression calculations in
estimates 94 matrix notation 154
3A.2 Summarizing t-tests 96 5C.1 SAS/IML module for multiple
3A.3 Illustrating the central limit regression 155
theorem 97 5C.2 Estimating a linear
3A.4 Monte Carlo experiment with combination of parameters
triangular errors 99 158
ix
5C.3 Testing a single linear 7.5 Differences-in-differences estimation
hypothesis 158 202
5C.4 Illustrating computations 159
5C.5 Delta method 160
8. Heteroskedasticity 207
8.1 The nature of heteroskedasticity 207
6. Further Inference in the Multiple 8.2 Plotting the least squares residuals
Regression Model 162 207
6.1 Joint hypothesis tests 162 8.3 Least squares with robust standard
6.1.1 An example 163 errors 209
6.1.2 PROC REG Test statement 8.4 Generalized least squares estimation
165 211
6.1.3 F-test of model significance 8.4.1 Applying GLS using
167 transformed data 212
6.1.4 Testing in PROC AUTOREG 8.4.2 Using PROC REG with a
167 WEIGHT statement 213
6.1.5 PROC AUTOREG fit statistics 8.5 Estimating the variance function 213
168 8.5.1 Model of multiplicative
6.1.6 Testing in PROC MODEL heteroskedasticity 213
169 8.5.2 A convenient special case
6.2 Restricted estimation 170 214
6.3 Model specification issues 172 8.5.3 Two-step estimator for
6.3.1 The RESET test 174 multiplicative
6.4 Collinearity 175 heteroskedasticity 214
6.4.1 Consequences of collinearity 8.6 Lagrange multiplier (LM) test for
176 heteroskedasticity 216
6.4.2 Diagnosing collinearity 176 8.7 Goldfeld-Quandt test for
6.4.3 Condition indexes 178 heteroskedasticity 218
6.5 Prediction in multiple regression 179 8.8 A heteroskedastic partition 221
Appendix 6A Extending the matrix approach 8.8.1 The Goldfeld-Quandt test
180 222
6A.1 ANOVA for OLS module 8.8.2 Generalized least squares
180 estimation 224
6A.2 Prediction and prediction 8.9 Using PROC AUTOREG for
interval 183 heteroskedasticity 225
6A.3 Tests of a joint hypothesis 8.9.1 PROC AUTOREG for a
184 heteroskedastic partition 226
6A.4 Collinearity diagnostics 187 8.9.2 An extended heteroskedasticity
model 227
8.10 Using SAS ODS graphics 228
7. Using Indicator Variables 190
8.11 Using PROC MODEL for
7.1 Indicator variables 190
heteroskedastic data 229
7.1.1 Slope and intercept effects
Appendix 8A Monte Carlo simulations 231
190
8A.1 Simulating heteroskedastic
7.1.2 The Chow test 192
7.2 Using PROC MODEL for log-linear data 231
regression 195 8A.2 Heteroskedastic data Monte
Carlo experiment 233
7.3 The linear probability model 197
7.4 Treatment effects 198 8A.3 Using PROC IML to compute
true variances 238
x
8A.4 White HCE Monte Carlo 9.5.1 Least squares and HAC
experiment 242 standard errors 277
Appendix 8B Two-step estimation 245 9.5.2 Nonlinear least squares 278
8B.1 Simulating heteroskedastic 9.5.3 Estimating a more general
data 245 model 280
8B.2 Feasible GLS in multiplicative 9.6 Autoregressive distributed lag models
model 246 282
8B.3 Feasible GLS in PROC IML 9.6.1 The Phillips curve 282
247 9.6.2 Okun’s law 284
Appendix 8C Multiplicative model Monte 9.6.3 Autoregressive models 285
Carlo 249 9.7 Forecasting 285
8C.1 Simulating heteroskedastic 9.7.1 Forecasting with an AR model
data 249 286
8C.2 The least squares estimator 9.7.2 Exponential smoothing 287
250 9.8 Multiplier analysis 289
8C.3 Maximum likelihood Appendix 9A Estimation and forecasting
estimation 251 with PROC ARIMA 291
Appendix 8D Multiplicative model MLE 9A.1 Finite distributed lag models in
253 PROC ARIMA 291
8D.1 Using PROC AUTOREG 9A.2 Serially correlated error
253 models in PROC ARIMA
8D.2 Numerical optimization in the 293
multiplicative model 254 9A.3 Autoregressive distributed lag
8D.3 MLE based tests for models in PROC ARIMA
heteroskedasticity 257 295
8D.4 MLE using analytic derivatives 9A.4 Autoregressive models and
258 forecasting in PROC ARIMA
8D.5 MLE using method of scoring 297
260 Appendix 9B GLS estimation of AR(1) error
model 299
Chapter 9 Regression with Time-Series Data:
Stationary Variables 264 10. Random Regressors and Moment-Based
9.1 Time-series data 264 Estimation 304
9.2 Finite distributed lags 264 10.1 The consequences of random regressors
9.2.1 Lag and difference operators 304
265 10.2 Instrumental variables estimation 305
9.2.2 Time-series plots 267 10.2.1 Two-stage least squares
9.2.3 Model estimation 268 estimation 306
9.3 Serial correlation 269 10.3 An illustration using simulated data
9.3.1 Residual correlogram 272 307
9.4 Testing for serially correlated errors 10.3.1 Using two-stage least squares
274 309
9.4.1 A Lagrange multipler (LM) 10.3.2 Specification testing 310
test 274 10.4 A wage equation 315
9.4.2 Durbin-Watson test 276 10.4.1 Robust specification tests
9.5 Estimation with serially correlated errors 319
277 10.5 Using PROC MODEL 321
10.5.1 Robust 2SLS estimation 321
xi
10.5.2 Using the Hausman test 11A.2 Fuller’s modified LIML 357
command 321 11A.3 Advantages of LIML 358
Appendix 10A Simulating endogenous 11A.4 Stock-Yogo weak IV tests for
regressors 323 LIML 358
10A.1 Simulating the data 323 11A.5 LIML and k-class algebra
10A.2 The Cholesky decomposition 358
326 11A.6 PROC IML for LIML and k-
Appendix 10B Using PROC IML for 2SLS class 359
328 Appendix 11B Monte Carlo simulation 364
10B.1 The model, estimators and
tests 328
12. Regression with Time-Series Data:
10B.2 PROC IML commands 330 Nonstationary Variables 369
Appendix 10C The repeated sampling
12.1 Stationary and nonstationary variables
properties of IV/2SLS 336
369
Appendix 10D Robust 2SLS and GMM 342
12.1.1 The first-order autoregressive
10D.1 The model, estimators and
model 375
tests 342
12.1.2 Random walk models 375
10D.2 Using PROC MODEL and
12.2 Spurious regressions 375
IML 342
12.3 Unit root tests for stationarity 378
12.3.1 The Dickey-Fuller tests: an
11. Simultaneous Equations Models 346 example 380
11.1 Simultaneous equations 346 12.3.2 Order of integration 382
11.1.1 Structural equations 346 12.4 Cointegration 385
11.1.2 Reduced form equations 347 12.4.1 An example of a cointegration
11.1.3 Why least squares fails 347 test 386
11.1.4 Two-stage least squares 12.4.2 The error correction model
estimation 348 388
11.2 Truffle supply and demand 348
11.2.1 The reduced form equations 13. Vector Error Correction and Vector
349 Autoregressive Models 390
11.2.2 Two-stage least squares 13.1 VEC and VAR models 390
estimation 351 13.2 Estimating a vector error correction
11.2.3 2SLS using PROC SYSLIN model 391
351 13.3 Estimating a VAR model 397
11. 3 Limited information maximum 13.4 Impulse responses and variance
likelihood (LIML) 352 decompositions 403
11.3.1 LIML modifications 353
11.4 System estimation methods 354
11.4.1 Three stage least squares 14. Time-Varying Volatility and ARCH
(3SLS) 354 Models 406
11.4.2 Iterated three stage least 14.1 Time-varying volatility 406
squares 354 14.2 Testing, estimating and forecasting 411
11.4.3 Full information maximum 14.2.1 Testing for ARCH effects
likelihood (FIML) 355 412
11.4.4 Postscript 356 14.2.2 Estimating an ARCH model
Appendix 11A Alternatives to two-stage least 415
squares 356 14.2.3 Forecasting volatility 417
11A.1 The LIML estimator 357 14.3 Extensions 418
xii
14.3.1 The GARCH model— 16.1.1 The linear probability model
generalized ARCH 418 469
14.3.2 Allowing for an asymmetric 16.1.2 The probit model 472
effect—threshold GARCH 16.1.3 The logit model 476
421 16.1.4 A labor force participation
14.3.3 GARCH-in-mean and time- model 476
varying risk premium 424 16.2 Probit for consumer choice 479
16.2.1 Wald tests 482
16.2.2 Likelihood ratio tests 483
15. Panel Data Models 428
16.3 Multinomial logit 484
15.1 A microeconometric panel 428
16.3.1 Example: post-secondary
15.2 A pooled model 429
education choice 485
15.2.1 Cluster-robust standard errors
16.4 Conditional logit 491
430
16.4.1 Marginal effects 496
15.3 The fixed effects model 432
16.4.2 Testing the IIA assumption
15.3.1 The fixed effects estimator
497
435
16.5 Ordered choice models 501
15.3.2 The fixed effects estimator
16.6 Models for count data 504
using PROC PANEL 438
16.7 Limited dependent variable models 507
15.3.3 Fixed effects using the
16.7.1 Censored variable models
complete panel 439
508
15.4 Random effects estimation 440
16.7.2 Sample selection model 512
15.4.1 The Breusch-Pagan test 442
Appendix 16A Probit maximum likelihood
15.4.2 The Hausman test 442
estimation 515
15.5 Sets of regression equations 444
16A.1 Probit estimation 515
15.5.1 Seemingly unrelated
16A.2 Predicted probabilities 516
regressions 447
16A.3 Marginal effects 517
15.5.2 Using PROC MODEL for
16A.4 SAS/IML code for probit
SUR 449
517
Appendix 15A Pooled OLS robust covariance
matrix 451
15A.1 NLS examples 452 Appendix A. Math Functions 522
15A.2 Using PROC IML 453 A.1 SAS math and logical operators 522
Appendix 15B Panel data estimation details A.2 Math functions 523
454 A.3 Matrix manipulation 525
15B.1 Estimating variance
components 454
Appendix B. Probability 528
15B.2 Using PROC PANEL 456
B.1 Probability calculations 528
15B.3 Using PROC IML 458
B.2 Quantiles 531
Appendix 15C Robust fixed effects estimation
B.3 Plotting probability density functions
461
532
Appendix 15D The Hausman-Taylor estimator
B.3.1 Normal distribution 533
464
B.3.2 t-distribution 535
B.3.3 Chi-square distribution 536
16. Qualitative and Limited Dependent B.3.4 F-distribution 537
Variable Models 468 B.4 Random numbers 538
16.1 Models with binary dependent variables
468
xiii
Appendix C. Review of Statistical Inference C.6 Maximum likelihood estimation 554
541 C.6.1 Exponential distribution
C.1 Histogram 541 example 556
C.2 Summary statistics 542 C.6.2 Gamma distribution example
C.2.1 Estimating higher moments 558
544 C.6.3 Testing the gamma distribution
C.2.2 Jarque-Bera normality test 559
545 C.7 Exponential model using SAS/IML
C.3 Confidence interval for the mean 546 560
C.4 Testing the population mean 546 C.7.1 Direct maximization 561
C.4.1 A right-tail test 547 C.7.2 Using SAS optimizers 562
C.4.2 A two-tail test 547 C.7.3 Maximum likelihood
C.4.3 Automatic tests using PROC estimation of gamma model
TTEST 548 565
C.5 Maximum likelihood estimation: one C.7.4 Testing the gamma model
parameter 549 567
C.5.1 A coin flip example 549
C.5.2 Statistical inference 551
Index 571
C.5.3 Inference in the coin flip
example 553
xiv
Using SAS for
Econometrics
R. CARTER HILL
Louisiana State University
RANDALL C. CAMPBELL
Mississippi State University
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CHAPTER 1
Introducing SAS
Our goal is to provide the basics of using SAS for standard econometric analyses. Using SAS for
Econometrics provides a relatively concise and easy to use reference. There are a tremendous
number of other resources available for learning SAS. Google “Learning SAS” and you will find
more than one-half million hits. Appendix 1A to this chapter is “A Guide to Using SAS Help and
Online Documentation,” which gives perspectives on SAS Help systems.
SAS can be started several ways. First, there may be shortcut on the desktop that you can double-
click. For the SAS Version 9.2 it will look like
Earlier versions of SAS have a similar looking Icon. Alternatively, using the Windows menu,
click the Start > All Programs > SAS > SAS 9.2.
Once SAS is started a display will appear that contains windows titled
Editor—this is where SAS commands are typed. There are actually two editors: an Enhanced
Editor (automatically opened when SAS begins) and a Program Editor. Both serve the
1
2 Chapter 1
same purpose, but the Enhanced Editor offers automatic color coding and other nice
features. In this book we always use the Enhanced Editor, so in any reference to Editor
that is what we mean. To open one, or the other, click View on menu bar.
It should look something like Figure 1.1 on the following page. Across the top are SAS pull-
down menus. We will explore the use of some of these. In the lower right-hand corner is the
current path to a working directory where SAS saves graphs, data files, etc. We will change this
in a moment.
Select Exit
We will denote sequential clicking commands like this as File > Exit. Alternatively, simply click
the “X” in the upper right-hand corner
All of the data used in the book are provided as SAS data files, or data sets, for your use. These
files are at http://www.principlesofeconometrics.com/poe4/poe4sas.htm, the website for the
textbook Principles of Econometrics, 4th Edition (2011) by Hill, Griffiths and Lim, New York:
John Wiley and Sons, Inc.
4 Chapter 1
You can download individual data files, or the entire collection of SAS data files, to your
computer or a “memory stick” with adequate storage. In this Windows-based book we will use
the subdirectory c:\data\poe4sas for all our data and result files. All of our programs assume
that the POE4 data are in the default directory.
SAS data files have the extension *.sas7bdat. These files should not be opened with any
program but SAS.
food.def
food_exp income
Obs: 40
To change the working directory, or current folder, double-click the directory icon and use the
resulting Change Folder window to select your directory.
Introducing SAS 5
If you are working in a computer laboratory, you may want to have a storage device such as a
“flash” or “travel” drive. These are large enough to hold the SAS data files, definition files and
your class work. Make a subdirectory on the device. Calling it x:\data\sas, where x:\ is the path
to your device, would be convenient.
Also, at this time
x Close the Explorer and the Results tabs. This is optional, but it reduces the clutter.
x Click inside the Editor window to make it active. The blue bar across the top should
darken.
x Fully open the editor window by clicking the “maximize window” button
SAS programs are written in the Editor window. SAS programs consist of a set of SAS
statements. There should be a beginning, the middle, and an end.
1. Beginning: Open (or create) a SAS data set and perhaps modify it, i.e., create new
variables or data subsets.
2. Middle: Analyze the data using SAS procedures, or PROCs.
3. End: Save the output in a usable way. Save the SAS program code.
A second type of comment statement begins with “/*” and ends with “*/”.
Any commands that appear within this type of comment will not execute. Thus, including the
following line in a SAS program will not cause anything to be executed.
Comment statements of the first type can be “nested” inside comments of the second type, but not
vice versa.
In this book we have altered the SAS defaults so that SAS code and output appears in black &
white. If using SAS with the default settings color is very important. For example, in the SAS
Editor SAS commands appear dark blue, with other recognized terms in a lighter blue. [We have
these in bold.] Data lines are shaded yellow. In the SAS Log “blue” generally means no errors
have been identified, but “red” indicates that SAS has found a problem.
Let us examine these lines one by one. In each line, note that the following rule is obeyed.
All SAS statements, except data lines, end in a semi-colon “;” SAS
statements can be written over several lines. The SAS statement does not
end until a semi-colon is reached.
1. In the first line the keywords data datasetname tell SAS to construct an internal array,
named datasetname, that will hold data lines on one or more variables. The array will
have rows (different data lines) and columns (for variables). In this example we have
named the data set “HTWT” because the entries will be heights and weights of
individual teenagers. The datasetname should be short, with no spaces, and informative.
data htwt;
2. In the second line input provides a list of names for the variables we will enter. The first
two variables, name and sex, are in SAS terminology “Character” data. That is they
consist of alphanumeric data instead of numeric data. The $ following these two names
indicate this fact to SAS. The next 3 variables, age, height and weight are numeric.
3. In the third line we define a new variable called x. When directly entering data as we are
in this example, new variables are created just after the input statement. SAS has many
mathematical and statistical functions that can be used in the variable creation process.
x = height + weight;
4. The fourth line datalines informs SAS that the following lines are data and not SAS
statements.
datalines;
;
5. The next block of lines contains the data for this example. The first variable is the teen’s
name, then their sex indicated by M or F. Then follows their age (years), weight
(pounds), and height (inches). These lines do not end with a semi-colon. However, at the
end of the data lines there is a separate line with a semi-colon that serves to terminate the
block of data lines.
alfred M 14 69 112
alice F 13 56 84
barbara F 14 62 102
henry M 15 67 135
john M 16 70 165
sally F 16 63 120
;
6. The run statement indicates the end of a set of program lines that will be executed at the
same time.
run;
Enter a File name that will help you later recall its contents. The Type is *.sas.
Introducing SAS 9
Having saved it once, the key stroke Ctrl + S will re-save it after alterations are made, or select
File/Save on the SAS menu. The file name now shows up in the Editor header.
Now examine the SAS Log. Check it first each time you execute some commands. Click the Log
tab
The SAS Log shows the commands that have been executed and Notes about the execution. Here
again the color of the messages is a good indicator. Comments that are blue are good!
In this case we have created a SAS data set called WORK.HTWT. In this two level name
only the second part HTWT is relevant. The first part WORK refers to an organizational device
that SAS calls a Library, which we are skipping for now. So, for practical purposes the name of
the data set created is HTWT.
10 Chapter 1
There is no Output created so far, but we will now Print the data set using the SAS Print
Procedure.
The statements will cause the data set HTWT to be written to the Output window. Note that
altering the program file in the Editor changes the file name to chap01_htwt.sas*. The asterisk
reminds you that the file has not yet been saved.
In the SAS editor portions of code can be executed. This is very handy when building a SAS
program. Each “block” of instructions can be tested without executing all the commands in the
Editor window.
Highlight the two new lines, click Submit.
Introducing SAS 11
First we examine the SAS Log—click on the Log tab—and see that the Print procedure
executed. No signs of an error, which is good.
SAS automatically opens the Output window. Resist examining the output too closely until the
Log is examined. The Output window shows the 6 observations on the original variables plus the
variable x that we created.
When the data set name is omitted in a SAS procedure command, then the most recently created
data set is used. Thus to print the SAS data set HTWT (since it was created most recently) we
could have used the command statement PROC PRINT; Also, we can add a title to the output by
using a TITLE statement with the descriptive title in quotes. Execute the commands
proc print;
title 'Height-Weight Data'; * add title;
run;
Height-Weight Data
You may not wish to print all the variables in a data set. Specify the variables you wish to print in
a VAR statement following PROC PRINT, as shown below. Also, once a TITLE is specified it
prints at the top of every page, even if you have moved on to another SAS procedure. Thus to
turn off a title, insert TITLE; with no quote.
You may not wish to print all the observations in a data set, especially if it has a large number of
observations. The PROC PRINT statement can be altered to print a specific number of
observations. To print just the first 3 observations use
Clear all
The SAS Output window is “cumulative.” It saves all the output from any and all procedures that
have been submitted. This is good when creating a program and you are engaged in some trial
and error. At the end of the process, however, we want the SAS program to have clean, clear,
concise output. This can be accomplished by selecting Clear All, and then “running” the SAS
program a final time. Instead of Clear All, click the Blank Sheet icon gives a new and empty
window.
When the contents of the Output window are to your liking, click the usual Windows “disk”
icon.
This opens a dialog box so that you can save the output as a file. The SAS default is a List File
which is a simple text file.
14 Chapter 1
Click on the Windows “printer” icon to obtain a hardcopy. We recommend that you never do
this. The reason for this recommendation is that SAS includes many page breaks in the output,
so that printing will use many sheets of paper. You should always edit the output before printing a
hardcopy or for final presentation.
To preserve important output import it into a word processor for further editing and
simplification. This can be accomplished by saving the output contents to a List file and then
opening it in your word processor, or by a Copy/Paste operation. On the Output window menu
select Edit > Select All to highlight all the output. This can also be achieved using the key stroke
“Ctrl + A”. This means press the “A” key while holding down the “Ctrl” key.
To choose just a portion of the output, highlight it (hold down left mouse button and drag),
then press the Windows “copy” icon. This can also be achieved by using the keystroke “Ctrl +
C”. Then switch to the word processor and in an open document paste the result using “Ctrl +
V” or by clicking the “paste” icon, such as for Microsoft Word,
Introducing SAS 15
When you paste SAS output (or program code) into a document it may become ragged and
messy. This results when your word processor assigns its default font (often Times New Roman)
to your SAS code. To straighten everything up, highlight the SAS output or code, and change the
font to “Courier” or “SAS monospace”. You may have to reduce the font size and/or alter the
margins it to fit neatly.
It is also very handy to note that SAS code from another source (a saved program, a sample
program from SAS Help, or from an online sample) can be copied and pasted into the Editor.
In addition to examining the data using PROC PRINT, when beginning a new analysis it is
always a good idea to obtain some simple summary statistics, to see if they make sense. When
using large data sets, with thousands of lines, you will not inspect every single number. Summary
statistics serve as a check. Finding that the minimum height of a teenager in a sample is 7.2
inches would lead you to suspect a typographical error (since the number is probably 72).
In the SAS program chap01_htwt.sas add the two lines
PROC MEANS reports summary statistics for the data set HTWT. Highlight these two
commands and click the Submit icon.
16 Chapter 1
The SAS Display Manager switches to the Output window and shows the basic summary
statistics provided by PROC MEANS: the number of sample observations “N”, the sample mean
(Mean), the sample standard deviation (Std Dev), the minimum value and the maximum value
for the variable in question.1
The variables “name” or “sex” have no summary statistics because they are alphanumeric, rather
than numerical, variables. Also, SAS has reported a large number of decimal places for the
summary statistics, which we may want to modify. All SAS procedures have many “options” for
controlling what is reported and how it is reported.
Checking the SAS Log we find no errors.
1
If you are rusty on the interpretation of mean and standard deviation, see Appendix B of this manual.
Introducing SAS 17
You may not want PROC MEANS to compute summary statistics for all variables in the data
set. Use the VAR option after PROC MEANS to select variables. Also, PROC MEANS
follows the rule that if no data set is specified, it operates on the most recently created SAS data
set.
You also may not wish to report as many decimals as SAS does by default. Add the option
MAXDEC to the PROC MEANS statement.
Errors in SAS programming are inevitable. SAS will not work as expected when there is an error
and it is sometimes good at providing clues about the location of the error. Return to
chap01_htwt.sas and Save what you have done so far.
18 Chapter 1
The name of the SAS data set has been misspelled. Highlight and submit these two commands.
The first indication that something is wrong is that SAS does not immediately switch to the
Output window. If you switch to the Output window you will find nothing new has been added.
Examining the SAS Log we find ERROR (in red letters with default colors) which is never
good. The error says File WORK.HWTT.DATA does not exist. The “WORK” identifies a SAS
Library, a feature we have not discussed. The key is that HWTT.DATA does not exist.
Typing errors are perhaps the most common type of error. Incorrect commands such as PORC
PRINT or PROC MEENS will always “spell” disaster.
It is also OK to put one command on several lines, which is handy for long commands.
proc means
data=htwt; run;
Examining the SAS Log you can judge that SAS is unhappy by the amount of red ink. It thinks
that you think that “run” is an option of the PROC MEANS statement. Based on these clues you
must find the error and correct it. This is not easy and it requires experience.
SAS can produce brilliant graphics. Having “pictures” is very useful when analyzing data,
because “a picture is worth a thousand words.” Sayings such as this endure the ages because they
are so true.
The first type of graphic tool we introduce is a scatter diagram. This is a plot in the “x-y”
plane with the values of one variable on one axis and the values of another variable on the other
axis. To illustrate we create a scatter diagram with “height” on the horizontal axis and “weight”
on the vertical axis.
In the Output window you will find a rough diagram showing the plot.
20 Chapter 1
The second line of the command plot weight*height; identifies the order of the variables in the
plot, with weight on the vertical (Y) axis and height on the horizontal (X) axis. While this plot is
simple, it is in the Output window and thus part of a simple text file, which can sometimes be
useful.
symbol1 value=dot;
proc gplot data=htwt;
plot weight*height;
run;
PROC GPLOT produces output in a new window. To alter the appearance of the “dots” in the
graph we used a symbol statement prior to issuing the PROC GPLOT command. The statement
actually is symboln where n is a number from 1 to 255. When graphs have several plots each can
have its own symbols. The resulting plot will now have “dots” that are filled circles, and we can
clearly see that larger weights are associated with greater heights.
Introducing SAS 21
The difference between this graph and the previous graph is that this is a graphics image.
In this Graphics window, select File > Export as Image (or right-click on the graph).
This will open a dialog box from which you can choose a number of formats. The various export
formats include:
Click on your favorite File type and assign a File name, then click Save to save the image.
weight
170
160
150
140
130
120
110
100
90
80
56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70
height
22 Chapter 1
Alternatively, while in the Graphics window, simply click the “copy” icon and paste the figure
into your document.
PROC GPLOT has many wonderful options. We demonstrate some as we proceed through the
book.
Remark: SAS’s Memory retains all data sets created during a SAS “session”.
The session lasts as long as SAS remains open. After you close a SAS session,
everything stored in memory is deleted. The commands listed above assume that
data set HTWT is in SAS’s memory. If you closed SAS, and you are now
coming back to it, re-run chap01_htwt.sas so that the data set will be recognized.
Otherwise you will get an error message saying ERROR: File
WORK.HTWT.DATA does not exist.
The data set HTWT2 will contain all the variables that existed in HTWT.
To modify an existing data use
For example, suppose you wish to create a new data set from HTWT including only name
and sex. Then it would be convenient to use KEEP.
data htwt2;
set htwt;
keep name sex; * KEEP statement;
proc print data=htwt2;
run;
On the other hand, if you wished to delete x, height and weight (keeping only name, sex and
age) you would use DROP.
data htwt2;
set htwt;
drop x height weight; * DROP statement;
proc print data=htwt2;
run;
If there are several operations in one statement the order of operations is by their priority.
Operations with equal priority are evaluated from left to right. It is best to control the order of
operations using parentheses if there is any question. Items in parentheses are computed first,
with innermost created before outermost.
To illustrate create a new data set called ARITH from HTWT and carry out some
operations.
When computing complicated expressions it is best to use parentheses to control the order of
operation. Expressions in parentheses are evaluated first. If parentheses are nested then the
innermost are computed first, then the outer ones. This is illustrated in the following statement, in
which height and weight are summed, then the sum divided by age, with the result squared.
Symbol Definition
= or EQ Equal to
^= or NE Not equal to
< or LT Less than
> or GT Greater than
>= or GE Greater than or equal to
<= or LE Less than or equal to
The above definition makes female = 1 for females and female = 0 for males. Having numeric
values for discrete variables is often more convenient than letters.
In statistics and econometrics any time a logarithm is used it is the natural logarithm. See
Appendix A for a further discussion of the properties of the natural logarithm. In textbooks the
natural log may be referred to as either y log( x ) or y ln x .
The exponential function exp computes e a which is sometimes denoted exp a . If a is large the
the value of the exponential function can get large, so in this illustration we scaled age by 10
before computing the exponential.
The SAS Log tells us there is a problem, and even tells us the line and column where the problem
might be. The notation _N_=1 indicates that that this error is in the first observation or data line.
The variable _N_ is the observation number. This variable is always created by SAS when a data
set is formed, and having it is very handy.
data htwt2;
set htwt;
if weight < 110 then wtgrp = 1;
Introducing SAS 27
data female;
set htwt;
if sex = 'F';
Now combine the data sets MALE and FEMALE into a new data set including all the
observations on both.
Other documents randomly have
different content
points in their annual round; and each group is living almost as well
as, in some respects better than, they are at that particular point.
True, So-and-So’s house in town is a trivial twenty-room affair on a
side street, but his place in Newport (he concentrates upon it) is far
finer than their Newport place. Smith is decently housed in town and
at Newport, but lives in a tiny doll’s house in Curzon street during
the London season. Jones is modest in America and England, but
how he does blaze on the Riviera!
There must be no standing still. There must be progress. The
standards, all the standards—house, dress, equipage, number and
livery of servants, jewels, works of art, sports, gifts—are rising,
rising, rising. Each year, more and ever more must be spent, unless
one is to fall behind, lose one’s rank, be mingled with the crowd that
is ever pressing on and trying to catch up.
In the neighborhood of these plutocrats and their parasites and
imitators, struggling thus desperately in gaudiness, it is all but
impossible not at times to fear that prosperity, concentrated
prosperity, has killed Democracy, has killed the republic. Foreigners
look at New York and the galaxy of rich cities eagerly imitating it,
and shrug their shoulders and sneer. Americans look, and try to keep
their courage and their point of view.
CHAPTER III
PLUTOCRACY AT HOME
The typical young men of the America of fashion and high finance,
created by the multi-millionaire, fall into two classes—the born
successes, sons or heirs of rich men; the candidates for success. It is
hardly necessary to say that in this connection success always
means the accumulation of riches enough to enable one to make a
stir even among the very rich.
If the young man is a born success, all that is left for him to achieve
is to devise some plan for making a stir—the simplest way being to
marry some woman with a talent for doing original and striking
things. No matter how great his income, if he is not to suffer the
fate of being an obscure follower, a merely rich person, suspected of
stinginess, stupidity and vulgarity to boot, he must do something out
of the ordinary—assemble an astonishing establishment, have the
finest pictures, give the finest dinners and dances, run the fastest
horses or the most demoniac automobile, give large sums on some
original plan to education and philanthropy.
The chances are that the born success will marry in his own set—
that is, the daughter or the heiress of some rich man. This will be
due in large part to deliberation; also, neither is likely to know well
many people who are not rich or of the rich. If he is the eldest son,
the probabilities, the increasing probabilities are that he will inherit
the bulk of the fortune, no matter how many brothers and sisters he
may have. Some one in the next generation must maintain the
family magnificence. Naturally, therefore, an unwritten law of
primogeniture is rapidly growing in force and effect.
And this custom, combined with the rapidity with which great wealth
piles up in America for him who has great commercial skill, insures
us a future of ever more dazzling splendor, of luxury and
extravagance—an immediate future; we will not here speculate as to
that future which is more remote, but not less certain.
A short time ago a young man—a “born success”—went to a
beautiful country house near New York to make a Saturday-to-
Monday visit. He brought with him two huge trunks. These were
taken to the almost magnificent suite of rooms which had been
assigned to him. His valet unlocked the trunks and summoned the
chambermaid. The two servants stripped from the bed the sheets
and pillow-cases and covers; then from the trunks they took the
young man’s own wonderful bed-clothing, woven especially for him
by the best looms in Europe. These creations were put on the bed in
place of the silk and fine linen which the owner of the country
house, a very rich man, regarded as fit for a king, but which this
young man thought far too coarse for contact with his delicate skin.
The host was given to extravagance, was used to and in sympathy
with the eccentric efforts of too-rich people to attract attention to
themselves. But this insulting refinement “got” on his nerves. As his
guest was a very rich man, and was therefore entitled to that
reverential deference which only the rich are capable of feeling for
and giving to the rich, the host let no outward sign of his state of
mind appear. But he confided the insult to his other guests as a
“joke,” and had them privately laughing and jeering at his young
friend.
This young man is one of the small advance guard of the new
generation of plutocrats—the generation that has about the same
knowledge of life as it is lived by the great mass of Americans that
we have of the mode of life in a Hottentot kraal. We shall soon be
far better acquainted with these sons and grandsons of somebodies
than we are at present. Soon the wealth and industrial energy of the
country will be controlled by them, or, rather, through them by a
clever and unscrupulous few. Let us therefore pause for a moment
upon these American “born successes,” taking at random some one
of them as a type—one we will call, for convenience, Jones.
His father was a great business man, and in forty years of intelligent,
incessant and unscrupulous effort amassed a vast fortune so
invested that it gave the possessor control of an enormous financial
and industrial area. The father was a self-made man; he had a
profound reverence for book-learning; he was resolved that none of
his own deficiencies should be reproduced in his son. His boy was to
be a “cultured gentleman,” moving in the “best society.” Also, the
boy should have all the “fun” which first poverty and then business
cares had denied to the old man. He sent young Jones to the most
famous schools both here and abroad; and he gave him plenty of
money. It is not definitely known whether the old man was proud of
the results of his method of bringing up a boy so far as he saw them
before he died; but there is reason to believe that he was. Certainly,
the boy was as different as it is possible to imagine from his plain,
rather coarse, very manly if also very unscrupulous father. The boy
had all his father’s supreme contempt for the ordinary moral code
and for the mass of “weaklings” who live under it and suffer
themselves to be plucked. There the resemblance between the two
ends. In place of a brain, the boy acquired at college and elsewhere
a lump of vanities, affectations and poses. Surrounded by hirelings
from infancy, he became convinced that he was the handsomest in
body and the most brilliant in mind that the world had in recent
centuries produced. He thought, having been assured of it by
shopkeepers and agents, that his taste was almost too fine for a
coarse, commercial era, that his nerves were almost too delicate
even for the works of the greatest musicians and painters and
sculptors and poets, that he was living both within and without a
sort of tone-poem.
When he came into his own and descended to Wall street, he was
gratified but not surprised to learn that Wall street entertained his
own exalted opinion of himself. And when he heard on every side
that, in addition to being such an exquisite as a Lucullus or a Louis
XIV would have copied, he was the greatest financier that ever lived,
a boy-wonder at high finance, a greater than his father, the brain of
a Nathan Rothschild in the body of a young Apollo, he accepted it all
as the matter-of-course. Like so many of our very rich, he had an
economical streak in him—but this was a profound secret, hardly
known even to himself. So, he readily fell in with Wall street’s
pleasant way of saving its own money and living off the money of
other people. He plunged into the wildest extravagances, imitating
and striving to outdo the young scions of plutocracy with whom he
associated uptown. And like them, he made the people of whose
trust funds his wealth gave him control, pay the bills. It is vulgar to
pay one’s own bills, but there is no objection to their being paid out
of another’s pocket. It saves one from the degradation of counting
the cost, of thinking about prices and limits of incomes and such low
things.
No sooner was he fairly launched than a half dozen of the great
plutocrats, with wild shouts of adulation, proclaimed him their leader,
put him in a commanding position in all their big swindling schemes
called “finance” in Wall street. “You’re it, my lad,” they cried. “We
take a back seat. Go up front where you belong. We’ll do whatever
you say.”
Is it strange that the young man went about as if he were Mercury
of the winged feet? Is it strange that he got into the habit of
greeting his fellow-men with that gracious sweetness which kings
alone have—and they only on the stage or in novels? And when it is
added that uptown the married women flattered him, all the girls
languished upon him, everybody pronounced him a devil of a fellow,
a heart-breaker, a real, twenty-four carat, all-wool “cuss,” is it not
wonderful that he did not go quite mad and dress in purple and
wear laces and a sword?
Indeed, he did have those moments of absolute mental aberration,
and had to go to or give fancy balls to hide his lunacy from the
world. At those balls he always dressed in some ancient kingly
costume; and so evident was it that he thought himself indeed a
king, holding a grand levee, that a smirk followed in his wake as he
stepped grandly about—a smirk that burst into a titter as soon as he
was out of ear-shot. Yet really he was not the least bit more
ridiculous than the other sons and daughters of plutocracy, all
dressed up as kings and queens and nobles and grandees, and
wondering if the imaginary were not the real and their moments in
ordinary clothes a nightmare.
On and on he went, madder and madder, so crazy about himself that
even his plutocratic “lieutenants,” who were using him as a stool-
pigeon, could hardly keep their faces straight. At last he got to the
stage at which the old kings of France got just before the Revolution
—the mental state superinduced by beginning their education by
setting in their copy-books as a writing model, “Kings may do
whatever they please.” He never had had any sense of trusteeship;
he had been flattered into believing that the railway or manufactory
in which he owned a large amount of stock was his very own, that
wages and salaries paid and dividends declared were his royal and
gracious largess. But he at first had a dim sense that this great truth
must not be publicly aired, that it was prudent to let the common
people believe they had some share in the enterprise. Now, however,
this dim respect for, or, rather, tolerance of, a popular delusion
vanished. With rolling eyes and haughty nose and lips and high-
stepping legs he advanced boldly and publicly into his kingdom. A
Russian grand-duke said of the Russian people, “These fleas imagine
they are the dog.” Young Jones said in effect the same thing of the
depositors and stockholders in “my” enterprises, and showed
publicly that he thought it.
Great excitement. His plutocrat “lieutenants,” seeing that their graft
through this joyous young ass was imperiled, tried to quiet him.
Failing there, they tried to cajole, then to cow the insurgent “fleas.”
But all in vain. The ears of Jones, attuned only to adulatory sounds,
were assailed by such shuddering rudenesses as “Petty larceny thief!
Jackass! Swindler! Puller-in for the big gamblers! Crazy numskull!”
Frightful, wasn’t it? Not that he was in the least disturbed in his own
exalted opinion of himself. An angel come from heaven direct would
have moved him only to light, incredulous laughter by telling him the
plain truth about himself. Still, the clamor was unpleasant; the open
sneers, the sly stabs. And, above all, the ingratitude! The ingratitude
of his associates in “society” who had got so much expensive
entertainment and so much inspiration from him. The ingratitude of
the people, his vassals, whom he paid salaries and wages and
dividends, whom he permitted to deposit in his banks and to invest
in his enterprises!
His soul is brave, as becomes the soul porphyrogenetic. But, as it is
also a sensitive soul, how it is wrung!
The trouble with our young Jones is that he was premature—not in
thought, but in showing his thoughts. Only premature. The madness
that ravaged him is in the plutocratic air. Many eyes are rolling, many
fingers are twitching in the premonitory symptoms of the malady. A
few years at our plutocracy’s present rate of progress, and Jones will
be recognized as a martyr. “Jones was born a little too soon. Jones
came to a climax a little before the season,” the dandies will say.
June is the time for roses. Jones came in April. Poor Jones! Poor
April rose!
Such is the mode of the “born success”; now for the young man who
is born with brains and appetites and ambitions only. He is
determined to achieve a plutocratic success; looks about him for the
road that leads to palaces, equipages, yachts—all that gives one title
to a seat at the table of honor at this banquet of extravagant luxury.
He sees at once that to become a multi-millionaire he must use his
brains to force or to cajole the multi-millionaires to make him one of
them.
He must pattern after those who are far on the way to achieving his
kind of success: this corporation lawyer earning his hundred
thousand or more a year as the legal servant of rich men; that
railway president with his fifty thousand a year and perquisites,
earned as the commercial servant of rich men; that manager getting
a salary of one hundred and twenty-five thousand as a seeker of
safe investments for surplus millions of income—again a servant of
rich men; that bank president with salary and opportunities together
netting him upward of two hundred thousand a year—again a
servant of the rich; that broker who put by half a million last year as
a result of his skill and assiduity in the service of rich operators; that
doctor who made seventy-five thousand in fees and two hundred
thousand in Wall Street last year on “tips” from grateful patients—
again the rewards of service to the rich.
Our young candidate for success has brains to sell; he wants
customers with money. He hopes ultimately to sell these brains at a
very high price; he wants customers with lots of money, millions of
money, in which he may presently share largely. He must ingratiate
himself with the rich; must go where they are to be found, not only
in business hours, but also in hours of relaxation. He must not only
work hard; he must also play hard and high—must lead the life of
the rich as far as possible. His air, his dress, his style of living, all
must be such that he will be regarded as rich and progressive. To
drudge and to economize and to keep away from the extravagance
downtown and up will mean a small success, or at best one that will
not lead to the lofty height of fashion and social position upon which
he has fixed his eyes.
He may have a streak of incurable folly in him. His effort to be “a
man of the world” may draw him from discreet dissipation into that
vortex which swallows up all weaklings not secured by great wealth.
But let us suppose that he is not a weakling and that he keeps
clearly in mind that at the basis of all success lies clear-headed,
incessant industry. He works steadily at his business, commercial or
professional; he shows capacity and is advanced; he is soon getting
four or five thousand a year. At the same time he has prospered in
what may be called the uptown end of his business; he has made
acquaintances among the rich socially; several women of importance
are interested in him and are telling their husbands and their
husbands’ friends that he has brains. The men are seeing that the
women are not mistaken.
In any American city except New York or Chicago, our young man
would now be regarded as a person of some consequence. In New
York or Chicago he has merely reached the point at which he can, if
he is sagacious, measure his insignificance. He has worked hard, but
the real day’s toil has only begun. He has raised himself from the
class that includes hundreds of thousands; but he is still in a class
that includes tens of thousands.
Perhaps this discourages him, makes him feel that he can never
attain the paradise of multi-millionaires, or that, if he did attain it, he
would be too exhausted to enjoy it. Perhaps experience has given
him a clearer insight into the real meaning of his ambitions, and he
is disgusted with their pettiness and sordidness, and begins to long
for self-respect and decency and manhood. Perhaps his dream of
success has been interrupted by a dream of sentiment. He may
decide to marry and settle down—he has found New York drearily
cold and lonely.
In that event he gives up his bachelor apartments in the edge of the
fashionable district; he is seen no more at his club—indeed, he has
resigned from it; he is forgotten by his fashionable friends; he and
his wife live obscurely in a flat or an apartment hotel far from the
world of fashion, or in a cottage down in the country—a commuter’s
cottage, as unlike as possible the multi-millionaire’s cottage of
marble or limestone, of which he once dreamed. And as he is no
longer of the world with which we are concerned, he drops out of
sight—for the present.
But, on the other hand, perhaps his discovery of his insignificance
does not discourage him, but only serves to rouse him to greater
efforts. His close inspection of the palaces and performances of the
fashionable and extravagant rich has fired his imagination and
energy. In that case he does not marry. “I am too poor,” he says, as
he looks at his paltry income of five thousand a year and thinks on
the humble ménage it would maintain, and remembers that his
poorest married acquaintances up in the Fifth avenue or Lake Drive
district have fifteen thousand a year and cannot afford to entertain
or to keep a carriage, and are always fretting about money. He
considers what a “decent” hat or dress for a woman costs, and—
well, his tailor’s bill was seven hundred dollars last year and he has
almost no clothes. He remembers his bills for the few small and very
modest dinners he gave—a week’s earnings gone in a few minutes
and the dinner a poor affair beside the poorest he has had at the
houses of his rich acquaintances. To console himself for his heroic
sacrifice of sentiment to ambition, he takes a somewhat better
apartment for his bachelor self in a more fashionable apartment
house—his rent is twelve hundred a year. He works hard downtown;
he continues to work hard uptown. He works as cleverly in the one
quarter as in the other. He is always seen with rich people; he
belongs to fashionable clubs; he dines in palaces; he goes for
Saturday-to-Monday visits at great, extravagantly maintained
country houses; he is seen in boxes at the opera, at the horse show;
he expands his tastes and his expenditures with his rapidly
expanding income. His “fixed charges” are now fifteen thousand a
year—very moderate for a man of his associations.
In addition to these absolute necessities he spends about fifteen
thousand more upon presents and entertaining. Half a dozen men
living in the apartment house he lives in spend twice as much as he
does and do not consider themselves, and are not considered, either
extravagant or dissipated.
He is making a great deal of money, but he feels—and is—poor.
However, he is sustained and soothed by the certainty of riches
immediately ahead. He has been spending, but it has been in the
nature of an investment—a most judicious investment from the
standpoint of his purposes. And presently his cleverness and
audacity and “large ideas” have their reward; and then he marries.
She has tastes which are exactly his. She is willing to marry him
because she has not made the success she and her mother dreamed
of and strove for. She has some money—their joint income, while not
imposing as New York incomes go, is still large enough to enable
them to make “a decent start in life,” as their “set” interprets life.
Presently we find them installed in a “small” house or “little”
apartment—the rent is more than ten thousand a year, and they
have twelve servants. His skill as a money-maker is talked about; her
dresses are admired and envied; their equipages, their surroundings,
their dinners are models of luxurious good taste. As both are shrewd
managers, their forty thousand a year enables them to seem to be
spending twice that amount. They are in the high-road of plutocratic
happiness and are creditably charioted. And as the years pass, their
increasing wealth rolls up on itself as large wealth has a habit of
doing. They annually tour the multi-millionaire circuit in great state—
North Carolina, Hempstead, the Hudson, London, Paris, Newport.
They have children.
No healthier, rosier, more intelligent children can be found anywhere
than theirs. They have the best care that competent nurses and
governesses can give. They live by the clock, are fed the most
expensive and at the same time the most sensible food. They are
dressed in a manner that makes plain mothers blink and stare.
There are only two of them and the elder is only seven, but their
clothing bill last year was fourteen hundred. It will be less, much
less, as they grow older, for it is not good form to dress boys and
girls extravagantly—at least not yet. They speak French and German
as fluently as they speak English, and far more correctly. They have
everything for mind and body—except the direct constant care of
their mother. They have everything—that money can buy.
Let us go back to the cross-roads and take a candidate for success
who, when he achieved his modest five thousand a year, married
and went to live in a flat or small suite in an apartment hotel of the
kind that would have been called luxurious a dozen years ago, but is
now third-class. Let us assume that his wife, whether she came from
out-of-town or from the city, is the typical present-day big-city
woman of extravagant ideas—is, like her husband, wealth-crazy and
luxury-crazy and society-mad.
In all probability they will have no children. Children are not popular
among the extravagant in New York—dogs are less expensive, less
troublesome, fully as affectionate and far less unfashionable. The
extravagant rich still tolerate children, possibly because of a quaint,
made-in-England theory that aristocratic families should maintain the
“family line.” But “climbers” cannot afford the necessary time and
money. It was Swift—was it not?—who first called attention to the
fact that the attitude in climbing and in crawling is the same.
Our young climber is busy all day downtown—busy making money.
His wife is busy uptown—busy spending the money he makes, or as
much of it as she can threaten or wheedle away from him. She falls
into a set of young married women with husbands and tastes like
hers. They, like their husbands, think only of wealth and
extravagance. And while they wait for their dreams to come true
they invest every cent they can lay their hands upon in an imitative
vain show.
Our young man’s wife reads the fashionable intelligence with her
coffee. She presently goes forth as fashionably dressed as if their
income were three or four times what it is. She walks in fashionable
streets or sits in some fashionable restaurant, there to view and
study and envy the fashionable women she reads about. She
“shops” in the fashionable millinery and dressmaking establishments
—not to buy, but to steal hints for the use of her own cheaper
milliner and dressmaker in getting together her imitation costumes.
She strives to model her person, her dress, her walk, her conduct,
her conversation upon the conception of what is fashionable in the
multi-millionaire’s set.
As our young man has the genius for money-getting, he gradually
becomes rich. As his wealth grows he and his wife “drop” the
“friends” of less income, gather about them “friends” of their own
fortune, and reach out for “friends” who have fortunes greater than
their own. And at last, perhaps by way of a season in London under
the guidance of some impecunious woman of title, they arrive at the
bliss of being able to tour the multi-millionaire’s circuit in good
company all the way. And a crowd gapes at their palace doors and
windows whenever they “entertain.”
Those city crowds that pause to gape whenever more than one
carriage halts before a palace!
Fifteen years ago the most extravagant millionaire in New York—a
great financier—spent upon his domestic establishment, everything
included, eighty thousand a year. Very few people of his set spent
half as much, and the most of them spent less than twenty-five
thousand. To-day, for the fashionable extravagant set, eighty
thousand a year would not be far from the average expenditure,
taking rich and “poor” together. When that financier’s family were
the leaders, the principal entertainments in fashionable society were
modest affairs—though they were not then regarded as economical
—and were given by association. To-day every palace has its great
dining-hall and its huge ballroom. And the very rich who have not
palaces give their big entertainments individually in hotels and
restaurants, hiring a large part of the building for the exclusive use
of their guests, and spending thirty or forty thousand dollars or more
—in not a few instances far more—upon each entertainment.
To-morrow—
In this early twentieth century—which bids fair to be known as
America’s century—New York, the capital of our plutocracy, blazes
out a world-capital. Into it are pouring wealth and luxury, pictures,
statuary and works of art of all kinds and periods; jewels and
collections of rarities. In it are rising miles on miles of palaces,
wonderful parks and driveways. It has begun to be a City Splendid.
It has already won a place in the line of world-capitals back and
back through the ages to the mighty, nameless, forgotten cities of
the Valley of the Euphrates. And New York begins where the others
reached their climax.
CHAPTER V
CASTE-COMPELLERS
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