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Title Pages
Title Pages
Jude Woodward
Geopolitical Economy promotes fresh inter- and multi-disciplinary perspectives on the most
pressing new realities of the twenty-first century: the multipolar world and the renewed
economic centrality of states in it. From a range of disciplines, works in the series account for
these new realities historically. They explore the problems and contradictions, domestic and
international, of capitalism. They reconstruct the struggles of classes and nations, and state
actions in response to them, which have shaped capitalism, and track the growth of the public
and de-commodified spheres these dialectical interactions have given rise to. Finally, they map
the new terrain on which political forces must now act to orient national and international
economies in equitable and ecological, cultural and creative directions.
The right of Jude Woodward to be identified as the author of this work has
been asserted by her
in accordance with the Copyright, Designs and Patents Act 1988.
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Title Pages
www.manchesteruniversitypress.co.uk
The publisher has no responsibility for the persistence or accuracy of URLs for
any external or
third-party internet websites referred to in this book, and does not guarantee
that any content on
such websites is, or will remain, accurate or appropriate.
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Title Pages
Title Pages
Jude Woodward
(p.v) To
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Figures
(p.ix) Figures
Jude Woodward
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Maps
(p.x) Maps
Jude Woodward
All the maps that appear in this book were created by James David Smith, who retains the
copyright on their use in any other context.
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Tables
(p.xi) Tables
Jude Woodward
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Acknowledgements
(p.xii) Acknowledgements
Jude Woodward
There are many to whom I am indebted in one way or another in the writing of this book and I
apologise for anyone missed.
reasoning that flowed from them, formed my views and way of thinking more than anything else
impression on all who met him, and I was privileged to know him so well and share so much with
him.
I owe particular thanks to John Ross, senior fellow at the Chongyang Institute for Financial
Studies at Renmin University, Beijing, whose work on the Chinese economy provided the
backbone for the economic material in this book, especially in Chapters 1 and 2, and who
originated the figures and tables.
I am also hugely grateful to Keith Bennett who, often over a good Chinese meal, has been a
source of ideas, facts and critiques that were invaluable to the process of writing this book.
Keith read the manuscript in exemplary detail and pointed out many weaknesses, which I have
tried to correct.
I would like to particularly thank my editor, Radhika Desai, who subjected every page of the
manuscript to rigorous criticism, challenged every argument, pointed out many extraneous and
unnecessary diversions and altogether made this a much better book than it was when I started
out. It was sometimes painful, but in the end entirely worthwhile. I would also thank Alan
Freeman, who had faith in this book, relentlessly pursued helping me find a publisher, and, with
Radhika, spent generous amounts of time helping to refine my original proposal and thereby the
content of this book.
There are many people who have contributed to my thinking on the subject of this book. I have
had many discussions on developments in world politics and the economy with Barry Gray,
Michael Burke, and other friends and colleagues, which are reflected in these pages. These
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Acknowledgements
others particularly include Kate Hudson, general secretary of CND, with whom I have not only
discussed these issues over years, but whose love, friendship and support helped in many other
ways.
(p.xiii) I am extremely grateful to James Smith who produced all the maps that appear in this
book. And to everyone at Manchester University Press who helped me through the editing and
publishing process.
I strongly believe that it is necessary to spend time in China to understand how Chinese people
and their government see the world and to appreciate how strongly this contrasts with how
result of that I had responsibility for setting up and organising the London promotional offices in
Beijing and Shanghai. In 2008 I oversaw the Beijing Olympic torch relay in London, where I
learned from Fu Ying, ambassador to London at that time, how China saw the Olympics as an
China had received Shakespeare, Sherlock Holmes and Hollywood from the West, but without
object lesson in the capacity of powerful lobbies to whip up such extreme hostility to China that
it completely obscured what China was trying to say.
The links I made through this period led to my time teaching at Shanghai Jiao Tong University
and lecturing elsewhere in China after 2008. In this context I must thank my friends, Liu Tongbo
and Zhao Bingbing, neither of whom have any responsibility for the contents of this book, but
the many discussions I had with each of them taught me so much about China, how it sees itself
and the rest of the world.
To conclude, I want to thank my friend Helen Shaw for her wisdom and affection. And the
Patrick, and sister, Laura, and much-missed dad; and my own little family. Particularly love and
thanks to my husband, Rod Robertson, especially for putting up with my bad temper when the
the love, laughs and good times together that make any endeavour possible.
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Abbreviations
(p.xiv) Abbreviations
Jude Woodward
A2/AD
ACFTA
ADB
ADIZ
AIIB
APEC summit
APT
ASEAN
BCIM
BCP
BJP
BRIC/BRICs
BRICS
CELAC
CFR
CIA
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personal use. Subscriber: OUP-Reference Gratis Access; date: 23 September 2020
Abbreviations
CPC
CPEC
CPKI
CPPCC
CRS
CSTO
DPJ
DPP
DPRK
ECFA
EEZ
FDI
GATT
GDP
GFCF
GMD
(p.xv) IMF
IMF WEO
IPP
ISDS
ISIS
JETRO
LDP
MLPA
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personal use. Subscriber: OUP-Reference Gratis Access; date: 23 September 2020
Abbreviations
MNDAA
NATO
NED
NLD
NLF
NPC
NPT
OECD
OPEC
PLA
PPPs
PRC
RAAF
RCEP
RMB
ROC
ROK
SCO
SEATO
SIPRI
TAR
THAAD
TPP
UAE
UMNO
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personal use. Subscriber: OUP-Reference Gratis Access; date: 23 September 2020
Abbreviations
UNCLOS
UNGA
UNITA
USSR
VCP
WHO
WMDs
WTO
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Abbreviations
(p.xiv) Abbreviations
Jude Woodward
(p.xvi)
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The US vs China: Asia's new Cold War?
Jude Woodward
Jude Woodward
DOI:10.7228/manchester/9781526121998.003.0001
parameters of these global shifts, the chapter explains the structure of the book, and the
questions it will address.
The US has engaged upon a mighty attempt to carry through an axial strategic reorientation of
its foreign policy to confront the challenges presented by the rise of China. This has meant
Map 1
policy to focus on China. Although Obama claimed benign motives for this shift, in fact, as this
book demonstrates, its real aim was to contain and constrain China through policies echoing
those of the Cold War against the USSR. Trump has deepened this orientation.
diplomatic and economic. On the military front the majority of US naval resources were shifted
from the Atlantic to the Pacific, its bases expanded in size and number and its allies, particularly
Japan, encouraged to rearm. Diplomatically it meant an offensive to reinvigorate its Pacific
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US market as an alternative to trade with China. While Trump immediately abandoned this
continued. On the election stump Trump repeatedly accused China of currency manipulation,
cheating on trade, stealing jobs and threatened to impose a 45 per cent tax on Chinese imports.
Within days of his election, Trump sharpened the US stance on China by accepting a
congratulatory phone call from president Tsai of Taiwan, thereby, in terms of protocol, treating
1
This was followed by a series of hardline anti-
woes and that it had been waging a two-decade-long trade war with the US.3 Others in the
Republican congressman Randy Forbes, an outspoken China critic, and Mike Pillsbury, author of
The hundred year marathon, which argues that China is gearing up for world domination.4 Rex
might install a naval blockade in the South China Sea to bar China from its islands in the
announced a major naval build-up in East Asia, including proposals to base a second aircraft
carrier in the South China Sea, deploy more destroyers and submarines and expand or add new
confrontation with China inaugurated by Obama. Any concerns that this could prove risky or
However, while Trump deployed a more pugnacious tone on China, his policy confronted the
China. Trump claimed he could overcome such checks through more bullish steps than Obama
was prepared for, but that would mean embarking on a trade war with China in a situation
taking steps that risk escalation to armed confrontation with China, an outcome that neither US
elites nor the mass of its population are currently prepared for. A more aggressive policy
towards China is undoubtedly more dangerous for the world, but for any US administration to
actually prove more successful than Obama would mean surmounting the multiple obstacles to
such an outcome that are outlined in this book.
The origins of the US turn to confrontation with China, intensified by Trump and launched by
Obama, were clearly set out in a landmark article published in autumn 2011 by then US
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global strategic priorities.6
reprioritising the allocation of its resources to the Asia-Pacific region. This policy became known
(p.3)
shift,
determining question in US long-term strategies. US engagement with China had begun in the
nineteenth century when, after the defeat of the Qing dynasty in the Opium Wars, it extracted
extraterritorial privileges for US merchants in the 1844 Treaty of Wangxia, which the Chinese
European powers, vied with Russia and Japan for influence in China. After the overthrow of the
Qing dynasty it sought favour with rising nationalist forces by supporting the Guomindang
the Truman administration was split between those who wanted to throw US weight behind the
GMD and those who believed it was already a lost cause. It backed the GMD, but had little effect
victory in 1949.
later, when the US was de facto at war with China on the Korean peninsula, its policy-makers
debated extending the war to China itself. In the Cold War decades that followed, as discussed in
Chapter 5
China and the USSR amid the widening Sino-Soviet split, initially allying with Moscow to contain
China and, from 1972, decisively locking China into its global strategies against the USSR.8 In
Beijing, but instead the protests in Tiananmen Square were crushed. But although the Bush
administration imposed sanctions most were subsequently lifted by the Clinton administration in
the face of a powerful business lobby in favour of trade with China.9 But through all these ups
and downs, at no point in this chequered history could it be claimed that the US considered
China its number-one, global strategic problem.10
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incomparable speed, according to data (p.4)
domestic product (GDP) would have overtaken the US within a couple of decades, but following
2008 and the further slowing of growth in the US and the West, this accelerated. Between 2007
and 2015 the Chinese economy more than tripled in size, while the US economy grew by only
about 20 per cent.12
overtook that of the US in 2014 in terms of purchasing power parities (PPP).13 China does not
accept the PPP measure, but it would require a dramatic turnaround for its GDP not to overtake
1.2).14
Of course, even if PPP estimates were accurate and the Chinese economy is already larger than
the US economy, this would not mean that China had the same fundamental economic strength
($54,597).15 If expected growth rates were maintained in both economies it would be at least
2050 before China catches up on this measure. Moreover, the US enjoys other advantages, at
least for the time being: the (p.5)
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the US has far more advanced
infrastructure and technology; and it is
The result was rather neatly summarised by South African Trade Minister Rob Davies during a
2010 trade mission to China; he told the Financial Times
17
The significance of this for the US is hard to overestimate.
The relative decline of the US economy meant that it has less capacity to use economic leverage
alone to bind countries across the developing world to its strategic priorities. For example, in
the first 15 years of this century Latin America saw pro-US neoliberal governments replaced by
governments that refused to toe the US line on (p.6) foreign and regional policy. At the UN
they overwhelmingly opposed the 2003 war against Iraq, blocked support for the assault on
Syria in 2013, voted to recognise a Palestinian state in the West Bank and Gaza and abstained on
or voted against condemning Russian absorption of the Crimea in 2014. While the right was able
to reclaim the offensive electorally from 2015, primarily as a result of economic problems linked
to the fall in global commodity prices, South America is far from returning to a state of supine
subordination to the US. And with fewer regional acolytes willing to give it cover and act as
largest war machine ever assembled in human history.18 But indeed it was the size of the US
economy, the role of the US dollar and its de facto and de jure domination of the post-1945
financial institutions agreed at Bretton Woods that were the chief instruments of US power. This
was backed by military capacity not imposed by it.
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never actually great enough for the scale of its ambitions.19 Very rapidly its attempts to apply its
strength, while refusing to see the limits of its capabilities, began to demonstrate fundamental
weaknesses (see Table 1.1
competiveness were increasingly reflected in growing trade and budget deficits. From 1986 it
became a net importer (p.7)
(2.) Calculated from World Bank World Development Indicators © John Ross
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reality the US economy remained in the doldrums and what it could offer the rest of the world
was already insufficient to buy compliance with US strategic objectives in some areas,
force from the 1990s. But force is a costly option with often unstable results, as the quagmires
born of US interventions in Iraq and Libya have shown.
partners and Japan are added into the global equation, it is no longer simply paramount and
even its most sycophantic supporters question how long the US can remain the unchallenged
leader of the capitalist world. Even its closest allies have begun to hedge against that
21
arrives at the end of US global pre-eminence, a fact of which the US is deeply aware.
resources and attention of US army personnel, security advisors, diplomatic staff and foreign
has the greatest potential to compete militarily with the United States and field disruptive
22
of trade in goods surplus with the US hit an historic high of $268 billion, the issue became
unavoidable.23 On the 2008 presidential campaign trail, the Alliance of American Manufacturers,
adopted by Congress this designation opens the door to punitive tariffs on imports. Obama, like
on manipulating your currency, we are going to start shutting off access to some of our
24
But under Obama nothing came of it. On the one hand, China allowed the exchange rate of the
RMB to appreciate by around 4 per cent a year between 2005 and 2012. But chiefly, there was
no stomach for a trade war with China, which would hurt US exports to China at least as much
the type Trump promised, that wall off the US from cheap Chinese commodities would not aid
uncompetitive American companies; the space vacated would be rapidly occupied by cheap
imports from Mexico, Vietnam and elsewhere.
25
Similarly the 1988 Exon-Florio Amendment, which
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was at this time midway in his amazing career as a railway builder.
Eight years before, when known only as a young German-American
who had proved himself one of the ablest and most daring of the
Civil War correspondents, he had become the American
representative of a Protective Committee of German bondholders at
Frankfort. This body, and a similar one which he soon joined, had
large holdings in Western railways, which Villard had been asked to
supervise. Thus launched into finance, by his ability, energy, and
determination he had soon made a large fortune. His first extensive
undertakings were in the Pacific Northwest, where another son of
the Palatinate, John Jacob Astor, had carved out a career before
him; and his success with the Oregon & California Railroad, and
Oregon Railway & Navigation Company emboldened him in 1881–83
to undertake and carry through the completion of the Northern
Pacific. His interest in his original profession, and a wish to devote
his money to some large public end, led him while busiest with this
great undertaking to conceive the plan of buying a metropolitan
paper and giving it the ablest editors procurable.
Parke Godwin, Henry Villard,
Editor-in-Chief 1878–1881. Owner 1881–1900.
Horace White, who was connected in New York with Mr. Villard’s
business enterprises, and was ready to re-enter journalism,
undoubtedly shared in this conception. When Godwin’s half of the
Post had been purchased, and Schurz had consented to become
editor-in-chief, E. L. Godkin was approached with the offer of an
editorship and a share of the stock. He wisely refused to consider
the proposal till Henderson’s withdrawal was assured, and then
accepted it, writing Charles Eliot Norton that he did so because he
was weary of the unintermittent work involved in the conduct of the
Nation, because he knew that, being forty-nine, his vivacity and
energy must decline, and the value of the Nation suffer
proportionately, and because he wished to make more money during
the few working years left to him. The Nation, in fact, was a
struggling publication. It was bought by the proprietors of the
Evening Post, its price was reduced to $3 a year, and Wendell Phillips
Garrison, its literary editor, who was Villard’s brother-in-law, went
with it to the Evening Post to take charge of its weekly issuance.
The new owner and three new editors had long regarded the
Evening Post with high respect. Villard in 1857 had applied at its
office for work, being out of employment and almost penniless; and
upon his offering to go to India to report the Sepoy Mutiny, Bigelow
had offered him $20 for every letter he wrote from that country. His
political ideas had been identical with the Post’s—for example, he
had been a Liberal Republican in 1872, but had refused to follow
Greeley. Godkin had contributed to the Evening Post in the fifties
upon such topics as the death of the old East India Company, and
we have seen that he furnished correspondence from Paris in 1862.
Like his friend Norton, he had long acknowledged the paper’s
peculiar elevation. Horace White had contributed in the late
seventies upon the silver question. Schurz had known it as a loyal
ally in his efforts for a civil service law, sound money, and reform
within the Republican party, while it is interesting to note that under
Bryant it had said that he was the strongest man in the Senate.
Each of the three editors had his own title to distinction, and
each had won his special public following. Carl Schurz had been
constantly in the public eye since he lent valuable assistance to
Lincoln in the campaign of 1860. The German-Americans, indeed,
had known of him much earlier, for as a youth in Germany, aflame
with revolutionary zeal, his military services in the uprising of 1848,
and his subsequent romantic rescue of Gottfried Kinkel from the
fortress at Spandau, had made him famous. In 1858, writing Kinkel
from Milwaukee, he wondered a little over his steady rise in
reputation, modestly explaining it as due to American curiosity in “a
German who, as they declare, speaks English better than they do,
and also has the advantage over their native politicians of
possessing a passable knowledge of European conditions.” It was, of
course, really due to appreciation of his eloquence, versatility,
mental power, and enthusiasm for liberal principles. He has admitted
that he was inexpressibly gratified by the salvos of applause with
which he was greeted in the Chicago Convention of 1860. For his
platform advocacy of Lincoln he was rewarded with the post of
Minister to Spain, which he early resigned to buckle on his sword.
Then came his sterling service first as a brigadier-general and later
as major-general, when he fought at Chancellorsville, Chattanooga,
and Gettysburg. His investigative trip through the South in 1865 for
President Johnson, and refusal to suppress his report because it did
not support Johnson’s views, drew national attention to his
aggressive independence. Six years in the Senate, where he was
unrivaled for his discussions of finance, and four years as Secretary
of the Interior, had added to his fame as a man of broad views, high
motives, and unshakable courage. By 1881 he was recognized as,
next to Hamilton and Gallatin, our greatest foreign-born statesman.
Godkin also had a national following—a following of intellectual
liberals, especially strong in university and professional circles,
marshaled by the Nation since he founded it in 1865. He had, as
Lowell said, made himself “a Power.” In the ability with which the
weekly discussed politics and social questions, the trenchancy of its
style, and the soundness of its literary criticism, it was unapproached
by anything else in American—James Bryce thought also in British—
journalism. The masses who knew Schurz well had hardly heard of
it; but no man of cultivation who tried to keep abreast of the times
neglected it, and because it was digested by newspaper editors all
over the Union, Godkin’s influence was deep and wide. James Ford
Rhodes gives an illustration of this influence just after the Nation
became practically the weekly Evening Post. “Passing a part of the
winter of 1886 in a hotel at Thomasville, Ga., it chanced that among
the hundred or more guests there were eight or ten of us who
regularly received the Nation by post. Ordinarily it arrived in the
Friday noon train from Savannah, and when we came from our
midday dinner into the hotel office, there, in our respective boxes,
easily seen, and from their peculiar form recognized by every one,
were our copies of the Nation. Occasionally the papers missed
connections at Savannah, and our Nations did not arrive till after
supper. It used to be said by certain scoffers that if a discussion of
political questions came up in the afternoon of one of those days of
disappointment, we readers were mum; but in the late evening,
after having digested our political pabulum, we were ready to join
issue with any antagonist.”
As for Horace White, he was best known in the Middle West,
where he had entered journalism in 1854 as a reporter for the
Chicago Daily Journal. Four years later, after much activity in behalf
of the free soil movement in Kansas, during which he even removed
to the Territory himself and went through the preliminary form of
taking up a claim, he reported the Lincoln-Douglas debates for the
Chicago Press and Tribune. His reminiscences of those weeks of
intimate contact with Lincoln fill many pages of Herndon’s life of the
President, and constitute one of its most interesting chapters. During
the war he was Washington correspondent of the Chicago Tribune,
secretary for a time to Stanton, and organizer with A. S. Hill and
Henry Villard of a news agency in competition with the Associated
Press. After it, for nearly a decade, he was editor and one of the
principal proprietors of the Tribune, which under him was far more
liberal than it has ever been since. But he was valuable to the
Evening Post chiefly because he had devoted himself for years to
study of the theory of banking and finance, on which his articles and
pamphlets had already made him a recognized authority.
It was thus an editorship of “all the talents” that was installed in
the Evening Post just before Garfield was shot. Schurz was specially
equipped to discuss politics, the range of problems he had met while
Secretary of the Interior, and German affairs; White was perhaps the
best writer available on the tariff, railways, silver question, and
banking; while Godkin held an unrivaled pen for general social and
political topics. By birth they were German, American, and British,
but Schurz and Godkin were really cosmopolites, citizens of the
world. Their practical experience had covered a surprising range. We
are likely to forget, for example, that Schurz had once made a living
by teaching German in London, and had farmed in Wisconsin, while
Godkin had been a war correspondent in the Crimea, and admitted
to the New York bar. In their fundamental idealism the three men
were wholly alike. Schurz’s political record and Godkin’s Nation were
monuments to it. They were one in wishing to make the Post the
champion of sound money, a low tariff, civil service reform, clean
and independent politics, and international peace. Henry Villard with
rare generosity assumed financial responsibility for the paper, but
made the editors wholly independent by placing it in the hands of
three trustees—Ex-Gov. Bristow, Ex-Commissioner David A. Wells,
and Horace White.
II
The selection of Schurz to be editor-in-chief was more than a
tribute to his station as a public man. Of the three, he had the most
varied journalistic experience. As a young man in Germany he had
helped Kinkel edit the Bonner Zeitung. After the Civil War he became
head of the Washington Bureau of the New York Tribune, and took
an instant liking both to journalism and the men engaged in it—in
his reminiscences he draws a sharp contrast between their high
principles and the low sense of honor among Washington
officeholders. He soon accepted the editorship of the Detroit Post, a
new journal, urged upon him by Senator Zechariah Chandler, and in
1867 became editor and part owner of the St. Louis Westliche Post,
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