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AFFINE
ARITHMETIC-
BASED METHODS
FOR UNCERTAIN
POWER SYSTEM
ANALYSIS
AFFINE
ARITHMETIC-
BASED METHODS
FOR UNCERTAIN
POWER SYSTEM
ANALYSIS

ALFREDO VACCARO
ANTONIO PEPICIELLO
Elsevier
Radarweg 29, PO Box 211, 1000 AE Amsterdam, Netherlands
The Boulevard, Langford Lane, Kidlington, Oxford OX5 1GB, United Kingdom
50 Hampshire Street, 5th Floor, Cambridge, MA 02139, United States
Copyright © 2022 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

MATLAB® is a trademark of The MathWorks, Inc. and is used with permission.

The MathWorks does not warrant the accuracy of the text or exercises in this book.
This book’s use or discussion of MATLAB® software or related products does not constitute
endorsement or sponsorship by The MathWorks of a particular pedagogical approach or particular
use of the MATLAB® software.
No part of this publication may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means,
electronic or mechanical, including photocopying, recording, or any information storage and
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permission, further information about the Publisher’s permissions policies and our arrangements
with organizations such as the Copyright Clearance Center and the Copyright Licensing Agency,
can be found at our website: www.elsevier.com/permissions.
This book and the individual contributions contained in it are protected under copyright by the
Publisher (other than as may be noted herein).
Notices
Knowledge and best practice in this field are constantly changing. As new research and experience
broaden our understanding, changes in research methods, professional practices, or medical
treatment may become necessary.
Practitioners and researchers must always rely on their own experience and knowledge in
evaluating and using any information, methods, compounds, or experiments described herein. In
using such information or methods they should be mindful of their own safety and the safety of
others, including parties for whom they have a professional responsibility.
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assume any liability for any injury and/or damage to persons or property as a matter of products
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instructions, or ideas contained in the material herein.

ISBN: 978-0-323-90502-2

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Typeset by VTeX
Contents

Preface xi
Acknowledgments xiii

1. Uncertainty management in power systems 1

1.1. Sampling methods 2
1.2. Analytical methods 3
1.3. Approximate methods 3
1.4. Non-probabilistic methods 4
References 6

2. Elements of reliable computing 9

2.1. Interval arithmetic 9
2.2. Affine arithmetic 10
2.3. Solving uncertain equations by AA 14
2.4. Reliable solution of non-linear equations 16
2.5. Reliable solutions of constrained optimization problems 18
References 22

3. Uncertain power flow analysis 23

3.1. Problem formulation 24
3.2. Affine arithmetic based solution of the power flow equations 25
3.3. Numerical results 29
3.4. Robust formulation of the power flow equations 39
3.5. Case study 42
References 47

4. Uncertain optimal power flow analysis 49

4.1. Mathematical background 49
4.2. Numerical results 55
4.3. Robust formulation of optimal power flow problems 58
4.4. Case study 62
4.5. Remarks 63
References 63

vii
viii Contents

5. Unified AA-based solution of uncertain PF and OPF problems 65

5.1. Theoretical framework 65
5.2. Applications 70
5.3. Numerical results 72
5.4. Computational requirements 79
5.5. Remarks 79
References 79

6. Uncertain power system reliability analysis 81

6.1. Markov Chains 82
6.2. Uncertain Markov Chains analysis by AA 85
6.3. Case studies 88
References 91

7. Uncertain analysis of multi-energy systems 93

7.1. Optimal scheduling of an energy hub 94
7.2. Case study 98
References 104

8. Enabling methodologies for reducing the computational burden

in AA-based computing 105
8.1. PF analysis 105
8.2. OPF analysis 106
8.3. AA-based computing 106
8.4. Numerical results 108
8.5. Remarks 122
References 122

9. Uncertain voltage stability analysis by affine arithmetic 123

9.1. AA-based calculation of PV curves 128
9.2. Numerical results 129
9.3. Remarks 133
References 133

10. Reliable microgrids scheduling in the presence of data

uncertainties 135
10.1. Deterministic optimization 136
10.2. Robust optimization 138
 Contents ix

10.3. Affine arithmetic-based optimization 138

10.4. Numerical results and discussion 140
10.5. Remarks 143
References 143

Index 145
In memory of my Father (Alfredo Vaccaro)
To my family (Antonio Pepiciello)
Preface

Reliable power system operation requires complex numerical analyses

aimed at studying and improving the security and resiliency of electrical
grids. Many mathematical tools can support power system operators in ad-
dressing this challenging issue, such as power flow and optimal power flow
analyses, static/dynamic security assessment, and power system reliability
analysis. The conventional formalization of these problems is based on the
assumption that the input data are specified by deterministic parameters,
which should be defined by the analyst either from a snapshot of the power
system or inferred on the basis of some assumptions on the analyzed system.
Consequently, the solutions computed by solving these deterministic
problems are rigorously valid only for the considered power system state,
which represents a limited set of system conditions. Thus, when the input
data are uncertain, numerous scenarios need to be evaluated in the task of
computing robust problem solutions.
To address this problem, this Book introduces the basic elements of
Affine Arithmetic-based computing, outlining its important role in uncer-
tain power system analysis.
Affine Arithmetic is an enhanced model for reliable computing in
which the input data and the problem variables are represented by affine
combinations of primitive noise symbols, which are symbolic variables rep-
resenting the independent uncertainty sources affecting the input data (i.e.
exogenous uncertainties), or approximation errors generated during the
computations (i.e. endogenous uncertainties).
After introducing the mathematical foundations of Affine Arithmetic,
its deployment in solving the most fundamental power system operation
problems is presented and discussed. In these contexts the adoption of
Affine Arithmetic-based computing allows formalizing the power system
state equations in a more convenient formalism compared to the con-
ventional and widely used formulation adopted in interval-based Newton
methods. Thanks to this feature a reliable estimation of the solutions hull
can be reliably estimated by considering the parameter uncertainty correla-
tions and the cumulative effect of all the uncertainty sources.
These results can be generalized in the task of solving a generic mathe-
matical programming problem under uncertainty, which can be formalized
by an equivalent deterministic problem, defining a coherent set of min-
imization, equality, and inequality affine arithmetic-based operators. This
xi
xii Preface

Affine Arithmetic-based formulation allows computing feasible and robust

solution enclosures of complex uncertain optimization problems, reducing
the approximation errors, and the estimation over-conservatism.
The deployment of this computing paradigm is applied for solving a
wide range of power system operation problems, as far as optimal power
flow, voltage stability analysis, equipment reliability assessment, and micro-
grid scheduling are concerned.
Finally, to reduce the computational burden of Affine Arithmetic-based
computing, this Book analyzes the role of formal methods for knowledge
discovery from historical power system operation data, which could also
play an important role in optimally identifying the parameters of the affine
forms describing the uncertain input parameters.
To this aim, a data processing technique-based on Principal component
Analysis is introduced for identifying complex features and hidden rela-
tionships potentially describing regularities in the problem solutions, hence
reducing the problem cardinality and the algorithm complexity. Thanks to
this technique it is also possible to define a formal connection between
the principal components and the noise symbols of the uncertain variables,
which furnish an effective method for the optimal identification of the
affine forms.

Alfredo Vaccaro
Acknowledgments

The Authors wish to thank Prof. Claudio A. Canizares who inspired our
research work. Special thanks go to Prof. Kankar Bhattacharya and Dr.
Juan Carlos Munoz for their valuable contributions in applying Affine
Arithmetic-based computing in voltage stability analysis, and Prof. Alberto
Berizzi for his useful insights about the relations between affine arithmetic
and robust optimization.

xiii
CHAPTER 1

Uncertainty management in
power systems
State of the art and enabling methodologies

Power system operators require sophisticated numerical tools aimed at an-

alyzing the current and the expected operation states, guaranteeing secure
and reliable grid operation. In this context, numerical programming repre-
sents the mathematical backbone supporting the most fundamental power
engineering tools, such as Power Flow (PF) and Optimal Power Flow
(OPF) analyses, state estimation, voltage and frequency regulation, and
contingency analysis. These studies could also support the development of
advanced operations tools for integrated systems management, such as reli-
ability and resilience assessment of multi-carrier energy systems, or optimal
energy flow management in distributed energy hubs, which are relevant
applications in the light of the evolution of modern power grids towards
more integrated, smarter, and sustainable systems.
Numerical programming problems in power system analysis are conven-
tionally formalized by deterministic models, whose parameters are assumed
to be exactly known on the basis of several assumptions on the current
power system state. However, both the models and their parameters are in-
trinsically affected by complex and correlated uncertainty sources, which
can be roughly classified in aleatory and epistemic. The former is irre-
ducible, i.e. it has to be accepted and cannot be controlled, whereas the
latter is related to the accuracy of measurements, models, and parameters
characterizing the system.
Uncertainty sources are mostly related to the complex dynamics of
active and reactive power supply and demand, which may vary due to dif-
ferent causes [1]:
• Variable generation mix depending on the market clearing.
• The increasing penetration of non-dispatchable generators based on
renewable energy sources.
• The unpredictable fluctuation of loads due to unexpected events.
• The increasing geographical dispersion of energy generation.
Affine Arithmetic-Based Methods for Uncertain Power System Analysis Copyright © 2022 Elsevier Inc.
https://doi.org/10.1016/B978-0-32-390502-2.00008-9 All rights reserved. 1
2 Affine Arithmetic-Based Methods for Uncertain Power System Analysis

The presence of uncertainties hinders the effectiveness of deterministic

methods. Indeed, they can affect the problem solutions to a considerable
extent. Hence, reliable solution paradigms, which incorporate information
about data uncertainty are required. These paradigms allow to characterize
the uncertainty associated to input data, and to assess its propagation over
iterative calculations, hence providing a certain level of confidence about
the problem solutions, and assessing their sensitivity to changes in input
data uncertainties.
The scientific literature proposes a wide range of methodologies to han-
dle uncertainty in power system analysis [2,3], and the most promising are
summarized in the next sections.

1.1 Sampling methods

Sampling methods consist in generating a set of scenarios, given some
random variables with a defined probability distribution function. Monte
Carlo is the best example of such methods: although it can provide very ac-
curate solutions, it involves a large computational burden, which is due to
the large number of problems that have to be solved, one for each scenario
[4]. This condition prevents its effective utilization for large-scale power
system analysis, where the computational burden could be prohibitively
expensive [5,6].
Due to this reason, much research effort has been put in proposing en-
hancements of Monte Carlo methods, which try to improve the sampling
process at the cost of accepting an increasing level of risk. For example,
[7] integrates Latin hypercube sampling and Cholesky decomposition in the
Monte Carlo method. In [8], a hybrid solution algorithm based on deter-
ministic annealing expectation maximization algorithm and Markov Chain
Monte Carlo is proposed. Correlation between wind variables through an
extended Latin hypercube sampling is presented in [9]. Finally, chance con-
strained programming problems can be employed for solving uncertain
OPF analysis, in which Monte Carlo and deterministic optimization are
combined to handle the stochastic features of the input variables [10].
As previously highlighted, these methods require the definition of a
proper trade-off between accuracy and computational burden, hence they
are useful only when a defined degree of risk can be accepted.
 Uncertainty management in power systems 3

1.2 Analytical methods

Analytical methods require a simplification of the real problem and a certain
number of assumptions in order to make the problem tractable [11]. Some
simplifications can be obtained by characterizing the output random vari-
ables through multi-linearization [12], convolution techniques or Fourier
Transform [13].
An example of these methods is the cumulant method [14,15] or its
combination with the Gram-Charlier expansion [15] or the integration of
Von Mises functions, to handle discrete distributions [16]. Another formu-
lation is presented in [6], through chance-constrained programming model.
However, many of these techniques require the linearization of PF equa-
tions, which are non-linear, and this process generates additional inaccuracy.
The shortcomings of analytical techniques are multiple, as discussed in
[17–20]. One example could be the common assumption of statistical in-
dependence of the input data, or the approximation of the real probability
distribution with an ideal random variable. In this sense, the lack of deter-
minism, which is characteristic of power systems, especially as an increasing
amount of dispersed generators is being installed, can be a problem in the
correct formulation of the probabilistic models. Furthermore, when valida-
tion of these techniques is performed, the assumptions made are often not
supported by empirical evidence.

1.3 Approximate methods

Approximate methods, such as point estimate methods, have been proposed
as possible alternatives to both analytical and sampling methods [21]. These
methods aim at approximating the statistical properties of the variables re-
sulting as outputs of PF and OPF analyses. For example, in case of first or
second order method, the mean and the variance are propagated through
the calculations, by using Taylor series expansion [22].
In case of the point estimation methods, a certain number of determin-
istic problems, in particular m, which is the number of uncertain variables,
has to be solved in order to estimate the statistical moments of the problem
solutions [23]. Extensions of this method are, for example, Hong’s point es-
timate method [24], which are much faster but their accuracy is guaranteed
only for low uncertainty ranges, and the linearization is a good approxima-
tion only around the nominal operation point.
Other approaches are based on primal-dual interior point method [25],
which allows computing the sensitivity of the uncertain parameters with
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