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Random Processes
for Engineers
A PRIMER
Random Processes
for Engineers
A PRIMER
MATLAB® is a trademark of The MathWorks, Inc. and is used with permission. The MathWorks does not war-
rant the accuracy of the text or exercises in this book. This book’s use or discussion of MATLAB® software or
related products does not constitute endorsement or sponsorship by The MathWorks of a particular pedagogical
approach or particular use of the MATLAB® software.
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v
vi Contents
Index.......................................................................................................................193
Preface
There are a lot of authoritative, comprehensive, and axiomatically correct books on
random processes, but they all suffer from lack of accessibility for engineering stu-
dents starting out in the area. This book fills the gap between the undergraduate engi-
neering statistics course and the rigorous approaches. A refresher on the prerequisite
topics from basic statistics is given in the first chapter.
Some of the features that distinguish the book from other resources are the
following:
In short, this book is not comprehensive and not rigorous, but it is unique in its
simplified approach to the subject. It “greases the skids” for students embarking on
advanced reading, while it provides an adequate one-semester survey of random pro-
cesses for the nonspecialist.
Supplementary material—selected answers, examples, exercises, insights, and
errata—will be made available as they are generated, at the author’s web site: http://
ee.eng.usf.edu/people/snider2.html.
ix
x Preface
xi
1 A Retrospective
Probability Basics
This textbook is intended for readers who have already studied basic statistics and
probability. The purpose of Chapter 1 is to jog your memory by reviewing the mate-
rial from a different and, hopefully, refreshing perspective.
1.1 WHAT IS “PROBABILITY”?
Since this isn’t your first course in probability, you know how profound this question
is. Let’s consider a few ways in which we use the word.
There are some situations in which there is no question about the numerical val-
ues of the probabilities. If a bowl contains seven red balls and three green balls and
one is picked at random, the probability that it is green is 0.3. It’s hard to argue
with that—although I might be backed into a corner if you asked me to define “at
random.” I might parry by saying each ball is “equally likely” or “equally probable.”
And then you’ve got me over a barrel, because my definition is circular.
But what if I select a ball “at random,” note that it is red, and wrap my fist around
it without showing it to you? To you, the probability of green is 0.3. But I know the
color of the ball, and to me the probability of green is 0. Probability can be subjec-
tive; it is a measure of our state of knowledge. In fact the probability of green, from
your point of view, will jump from 0.3 to 0 if I open my hand.
Some would argue that the probability is either 0 or 1 after the ball was drawn,
whether or not I looked, because there is no randomness after the selection, only
insufficient knowledge. In fact, there are some situations in quantum mechanics*
where the possible physical outcomes of experiments are predicted to be different,
according to whether or not the experimenter looks at the dials.
So let’s try to bypass this subjective “insider information” aspect of probability,
and consider the long-term-average interpretation. One is inclined to say that if the
pick-a-ball experiment is performed many times (replacing the ball after recording
the result), 30% of the times the ball will be green.
Is that true? Of course not! No matter how many repetitions are run, it is always
possible that 29%, 32%, or 99% of the balls selected will be green. Indeed, the sci-
ence of probability enables us to quantify how unlikely such results are.
But what, after all, does “unlikely” mean? We’re still going around in circles.
Equally devastating for this interpretation are such everyday statements such
as “there was a 30% chance of rain yesterday.” How do we assess such a claim?
* Einstein, A., Podolsky, B., and Rosen, N. 1935. Can quantum-mechanical description of physical real-
ity be considered complete? Phys. Rev. 41: 777. See also Bohm, D. 1957. Quantum Theory. New York:
Dover; and Herbert, N. 1987. Quantum Reality. New York: Anchor.
1
2 Random Processes for Engineers: A Primer
We can’t run a series of experiments where we replicate “yesterday” 500 times and
calculate the number of times it rains. Either it rained or it didn’t.
So probability is an elusive concept, although it has been explicated by philos-
ophers and axiomatized by mathematicians. Nonetheless we feel comfortable dis-
cussing it, calculating it, and assessing strategies using it. Personally, I feel more
comfortable when I can visualize a long-term-average interpretation for an answer
that I have computed, even though I acknowledge the fallacies involved.
Let me give you an example. This problem has always been popular with textbook
authors, but it achieved notoriety in the movie “21” in 2007.
A game show host tells you that a prize lies behind one of three doors, and you will
win it if you select the correct door. The probability that you win is, of course, 1/3.
But then an intriguing strategy is added. After you have made a choice but before
the chosen door is opened, the host (who knows where the prize is) opens one of the
unchosen doors not containing the prize. Has this additional information—that the
revealed door does not contain the prize—changed the probability that you have won?
Has it increased to 1/2 (because now there is one choice out of 2)?
Should you change your choice of doors?
Bayes’ theorem in Section 1.3 handles these questions, but let’s try to find a long-
time-average interpretation. So suppose every day for the next 20 years you play this
game. You expect to pick the correct door 1/3 of those times. Regardless of whether
you chose correctly or not, there is always an “empty” door for the host to open, so
his action is not going to change whether or not you were correct; your probability of
choosing the right door remains 1/3.
So 2/3 of the time you have picked a wrong door. What happens when you pick a
wrong door? In such a case the host’s hands are tied. He can’t “choose” which door
to open—he has to open the one that does not contain the prize. In other words, he’s
giving away the secret when he opens the second door!
Therefore, in 2/3 of the trials the prize is (for certain) behind the door that the host
does not open, and in the other 1/3 of the trials, it is behind the door that you origi-
nally chose. If you decide to change your choice to the unopened door, you will win
every time your initial choice was wrong; your probability of winning increases—not
to 1/2, but to 2/3. Dang!
So even though the long-time-average interpretation of probability is logically
untenable, we feel comfortable with it, and in this book I will not pursue the definition
of probability further. In most applications, one postulates probabilities for a cer-
tain collection of outcomes (perhaps “equally likely”), and our mathematical theory
describes how to compute other probabilities from them.
ONLINE SOURCES
The game show problem was posed in Marilyn vos Savant’s column in Parade maga-
zine in 1990. I guarantee you will be entertained if you read her account at
vos Savant, Marilyn. Game show problem. Parade Magazine. Accessed June 24, 2016.
http://marilynvossavant.com/game-show-problem/.
The relative-frequency interpretation of probability is explored through simulations at
Boucher, Chris. The frequentist intuition behind assigning probabilities. Wolfram
Exploring the Variety of Random
Documents with Different Content
duties, provided they speak to him clearly and simply,
above all inexorably.… See how happy a child is feeling
he has done his small duties. He already feels his
kinship with you thereby. Cherish this feeling, and it
will be salvation and blessing to him.”—M., p. 174.
As the feeling of the adult is called out by the helplessness of a
child, so, too:
“the child’s sympathy is roused by the young
creatures’ necessities more than by anything else, and
among these chiefly by their nakedness and softness:
‘… Mother, the poor little birds are so lonely, I am so
sorry for the poor little things.’”—M., p. 150.
And in this connection too comes the warning that feeling must
not be allowed to evaporate without action: