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John C. Nash
Telfer School of Management
University of Ottawa
This edition first published 2014
© 2014 John Wiley and Sons Ltd
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right, Designs and Patents Act 1988.
All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted, in
any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording or otherwise, except as permitted by
the UK Copyright, Designs and Patents Act 1988, without the prior permission of the publisher.
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It is sold on the understanding that the publisher is not engaged in rendering professional services and neither
the publisher nor the author shall be liable for damages arising herefrom. If professional advice or other expert
assistance is required, the services of a competent professional should be sought.
MATLAB® is a trademark of The MathWorks, Inc. and is used with permission. The MathWorks does not warrant
the accuracy of the text or exercises in this book. This book’s use or discussion of MATLAB® software or related
products does not constitute endorsement or sponsorship by The MathWorks of a particular pedagogical approach
or particular use of the MATLAB® software.
A catalogue record for this book is available from the British Library.
ISBN: 9781118569283
1 2014
This work is a part of and is dedicated to that effort by the many
community-minded people who create, support, promote, and use free
and open source software, and who generously share these ideas,
without which R in particular would not exist.
Contents
Preface xv
7 Nonlinear equations 95
7.1 Packages and methods for nonlinear equations 95
7.1.1 BB 96
7.1.2 nleqslv 96
7.1.3 Using nonlinear least squares 96
7.1.4 Using function minimization methods 96
7.2 A simple example to compare approaches 97
7.3 A statistical example 103
References 106
Index 279
Preface
This book is about tools for finding parameters of functions that describe phenom-
ena or systems where these parameters are implicated in ways that do not allow their
determination by solving sets of linear equations. Furthermore, it is about doing so
with R.
R is a computer language and suite of libraries intended primarily to be used for
statistical and mathematical computations. It has a strong but quite small base sys-
tem that is rich in functions for scientific computations as well as a huge collection
of add-in packages for particular extra problems and situations.
Among both the base and add-in tools are facilities for finding the “best” param-
eters of functions that describe systems or phenomena. Such tools are used to fit
equations to data or improve the performance of devices or find the most efficient
path from A to B, and so on. Some such problems have a structure where we
only need solve one or two sets of linear equations. Others – the subject of this
book – require iterative methods to approximate the solution we desire. Generally
we refer to these as nonlinear parameters. A formal definition will be given later,
but the tools we shall discuss can be applied anyway.
Sometimes the problems involve constraints as well as objective functions.
Dealing with constraints is also a subject for this book. When there are many
constraints, the problem is usually called mathematical programming, a field with
many subspecialties depending on the nature of the objective and constraints. While
some review of the R tools for mathematical programming is included, such prob-
lems have not been prominent in my work, so there is less depth of treatment here.
This does not imply that the subject should be ignored, even though for me, and
also to some extent for R, mathematical programming has been a lower priority
than nonlinear function minimization with perhaps a few constraints. This reflects
the origins of R in the primarily statistical community.
The topics in this book are most likely to be of interest to researchers and prac-
titioners who have to solve parameter determination problems. In some cases, they
will be developing specialized tools, such as packages for maximum likelihood
estimation, so the tools discussed here are like the engines used by car designers to
prepare their particular offering. In other cases, workers will want to use the tools
directly. In either case, my aim is to provide advice and suggestions of what is likely
to work well and what should generally be avoided.
xvi PREFACE
The book should also interest the serious users of composite packages that use
optimization internally. I have noticed that some such packages call the first or most
obvious tool in sight. I believe the user really should be offered a choice or at least
informed of what is used. Those who stand most to benefit from the book in this way
are workers who have large computationally intensive problems or else awkward
problems where standard methods may “fail” – or more likely simply terminate
before finding a satisfactory solution.
Thus my goal in preparing this book is to provide an appreciation of the tools
and where they are most useful. Most users of R are not specialists in computation,
and the workings of the specialized tools are a black box. This can lead to mis appli-
cation. A lumberjack’s chain saw is a poor choice for a neurosurgeon’s handiwork.
But a system like R needs to have a range of choices for different occasions. Users
also need to help in making appropriate choices.
I also hope to provide enough simplified examples to both help users and stimu-
late developers. While we have a lot of tools for nonlinear parameter determination
in R, we do not have enough well-organized guidance on their use or ways to effec-
tively retire methods that are not good enough.
As a developer of such tools, I have found myself confronted on a number of
occasions by users telling me that a colleague said my program was very good, but
“it didn’t work.” This has almost always been because the mode of use or choice
of tool was inappropriate. Ideally, I aim to have the software identify such misap-
plication but that is a very difficult challenge that I have spent a good deal of my
career addressing.
That said, I must note that many many items that appear in this book were
developed or adjusted during its writing. The legacy of a very large and widely used
open source system leaves much detritus that is not useful and many inconvenient
loose ends. Some have been addressed as the writing progressed.
A word about the structure of this book. Readers who read cover to cover will
find a certain amount of duplication. I have tried to make each chapter somewhat
self-contained. This does not mean that I will not refer the reader to other chapters,
but it does mean that sometimes there is repetition of ideas that are also treated
elsewhere. This is done to make it easier to read chapters independently.
Any book, of course, owes a lot to people other than the author. I cannot
hope to do justice to every person who has helped with ideas or support, but the
following, in no particular order, are the names of some people who I feel have
contributed to the writing of this book: Mary Nash, Ravi Varadhan, Stephen Nash,
Hans Werner Borchers, Claudia Beleites, Nathan Lemoine, Paul Gilbert, Dirk
Eddelbeuttel, John Fox, Ben Bolker, Doug Bates, Kate Mullen, Richard Alexander
and Gabor Grothendieck.
John C. Nash
1
In this introductory chapter we look at the classes of problems for which we will
discuss solution tools. We also consider the interrelationships between different
problem classes as well as among the solution methods. This is quite general. R is
only incidental to this chapter except for some examples. Here we write our list of
things to do.
Note that f () is a scalar function but x is a vector. There may or may not be
constraints on the values of x, and these are expressed formally in the vector
of functions c. While these functions are general, many problems have much
simpler constraints, such as requirements that the values of x be no less than some
lower bounds or no greater than some upper bounds as we shall discuss in the
following text.
We have specified the problem as a minimization, but maximization problems
can be transformed to minimizations by multiplying the objective function by −1.
Note also that we have asked for the set of arguments x that minimize the
objective, which essentially implies the global minimum. However, many – if not
most – of the numerical methods in optimization are able to find only local minima
and quite a few problems are such that there may be many local minima and possi-
bly even more than one global minimum. That is, the global minimum may occur
at more than one set of parameters x and may occur on a line or surface.
Cobb–Douglas example
The Cobb–Douglas production function (Nash and Walker-Smith, 1987, p. 375)
predicts the quantity of production prodn of a commodity as a function of the inputs
of kapital (it appears traditional to use a K for this variable) and labour used, namely,
prodn = b1 ∗ kapitalb2 ∗ labourb3 (1.1)
A traditional approach to this problem is to take logarithms to get
log(prodn) = log(b1 ) + b2 ∗ log(kapital) + b3 ∗ log(labour) (1.2)
However, the two forms imply very different ways in which errors are assumed
to exist between the model and real-world data. Let us assume (almost certainly
dangerously) that data for kapital and labour are known precisely, but there may be
errors in the data for prodn. Let us use the name Dprodn. In particular, if we use
additive errors of the form
errors = data − model (1.3)
then we have
log(Dprodn) = log(b1 ) + b2 ∗ log(kapital) + b3 ∗ log(labour) + errorsL (1.4)
Discovering Diverse Content Through
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“Sid,” asked Raymond, when the sun had dropped behind the
mountain at the back, and long shadows lay across the valley, “how
much longer will we have to wait?”
“Until it’s good and dark.”
“But then we shan’t know where to get water.”
“It can’t be far to the mouth of the cañon above the village, and
we’re almost sure to find water there.”
“I don’t see how I’m going to stand it, Sid. I’d go back to the jail if I
could have a good drink.”
“You see, Ray, it’s not just a question of going back to the jail. We
can’t tell what they would do with us for killing the bandits. I don’t
know of any way we could prove we did it in self-defense.”
“Well, I almost wish that policeman would find us; that would settle
it.”
“I’m surprised he hasn’t,” said Sidney, “but I think he must have
believed that we went back to Timour Khan Shoura. And I think, too,
that he was trying to work a little private graft of his own. I don’t
believe he reported that we got out. He probably went back on the
road to try to overtake and rob us.”
“And here we’ve had to stay all day,” growled Raymond, “with water
in the house right below us. I’ve a good mind to go down there now
and get a drink.” For the thought of the possible water so near was
almost more than the boy could endure.
“It won’t be long now, Ray,” said Sidney encouragingly; “see, it’s
almost dark down in the valley now. You’ve been too fine the last
few days to give up just because you’re thirsty.”
“Let’s stop talking about it, Sid,” groaned Raymond. “It makes me
wild to think of water.” And Raymond took up the endless tramp
again to wear away the time.
CHAPTER XI
WITHOUT WATER
A t last the hour came when Sidney judged it was dark enough for
them to venture out. He did not think it necessary to wait until
late at night, for as soon as they could leave the house they would
climb a little way up the mountain and then pass along the slope at
some distance above the village. Moreover, all the houses opened
toward the valley, and like their place of refuge had no windows
facing the mountain. It seemed, then, that there would be little
danger of discovery as soon as it was dark enough to prevent their
being seen at a distance.
The boys rolled up their blankets and disposed of their packs to the
best advantage for traveling, then left their shelter with feverish
haste in their longing to reach water. The mountain along which they
had to pass was bare, as all southern slopes are in Eastern and
Central Daghestan. With practically no growth of bushes, and with
only broken rocks to retard them, their way was not difficult, even in
the dark, and they made good progress.
Sidney again proved himself to be a good prophet, for their
departure was not seen, and no one appeared to stop them. They
stumbled along in the dark over the rocky surface, and soon were
beyond what seemed to be the extreme limit of the village. However,
to insure security, they went half a mile farther, and then descended
to the valley.
At the foot of the mountain they encountered a well-traveled trail,
but as it was plain that they had not yet reached the lowest level of
the valley, they decided to continue a little farther on the same line
in the hope of finding water. So they went straight forward and soon
crossed the wash of a stream, but alas! it was dry. They thought it
might be that it was only a tributary wash and that they had not yet
come to the main stream, and they went on, only to realize after a
little that they were climbing an ascent. That convinced them, with a
shock, that they had, indeed, crossed the bottom of the valley
without finding water.
“What shall we do, Sid?” asked Raymond with a tremble in his voice.
“We must go back to the trail and follow that up to the mountains.
The stream probably doesn’t flow much below the mouth of the
cañon, and when we get up there we’ll find it.”
“I hope so,” said Raymond, in a tone that contradicted his words.
They turned back on their course, crossed the wash again, and
climbing a gentle rise reached the trail. Turning into that to the left
they plodded doggedly on. They had encountered only one trail, and
as that was well traveled, they had assumed that it must be the
main road into the mountains, therefore the one they wanted. So
they followed it without hesitation.
As they proceeded they entered more directly under the brow of the
mountains and the darkness increased. The trail was so well defined,
however, that they had no difficulty in following it, even when they
could not really see the road they were traveling. On and on they
went, with only one thought, to hurry forward, the sooner to reach
water.
The boys had eaten nothing since early in the day, for after they had
become so thirsty they could not endure the thought of dry food.
And they ate very little the day before while in the jail, for even
when there was water to assist, the food they had was very
unpalatable. So their strength was failing greatly, though they hardly
realized it, even unconsciously, and certainly did not think about it,
in their frenzy to reach the mouth of the cañon where they expected
to find water.
The two raced on at a speed which, under ordinary conditions, and
without the stimulus of an overpowering desire, would have soon
exhausted them. They kept the trail in the dark with the instinct that
is shown by animals, rather than by any exercise of reason, and they
paid no attention to its direction so long as they were advancing, as
they supposed, to water. With the terrible disappointment they had
experienced in finding a dry wash where they had expected a
stream, their desire for water had increased so greatly as to be fairly
consuming, and left no room for any other thought.
Suddenly Sidney, who was in the lead, stopped short,—so suddenly
in his swift course that his brother plunged forcibly against him.
When Raymond had recovered his balance he asked anxiously, in a
strained, unnatural voice,—
“What’s the matter, Sid?”
“See that trail!” replied Sidney.
Raymond stooped and peered at the ground in the darkness. The
trail turned back at a sharp angle and ascended in almost the
opposite direction, plainly the first turn of a switchback that climbed
the mountain.
“That means we’re on the wrong road,” said Sidney. “I’m sure the
road we want doesn’t go up over the mountain like that, and,
anyway, we shan’t find water this way.”
“Then we’ll have to go back,” said Raymond in a hopeless tone, “and
hunt for another trail.”
“It’s a long way,” said Sidney doubtfully. “I think we must have been
tramping fully two hours, and after we found another trail we’d have
to follow it up to water, maybe two hours longer. I doubt if we are
equal to that.”
With the new disappointment, after the great exertion that had
preceded it, the boys had nearly collapsed. Their legs gave way
under them and they sank to the ground.
“Sid!”—and there was a note of terror in Raymond’s voice—“maybe
this country is like Lower California, and there is no surface water.”
“It can’t be; there are so many people living here.”
“But perhaps the people in the village get all their water from wells.”
“That’s so; I never thought of that; maybe they do.”
“I’m going back to the village, Sid, for water.” And Raymond
struggled to his feet.
“We must not do a foolish thing, Ray, just because we feel
desperate. If we go back I don’t believe we’ll ever leave there alive.
I think there is water in the cañon above the village, too, for you
know there was running water where we camped below.”
Raymond hesitated, partly convinced by his brother’s reasoning.
“What do you propose to do?” he asked.
“I think it’s too far to go back by the trail,” replied Sidney, “and we
can’t get straight down the mountain in the dark. I blame myself for
not noticing that we were climbing quite a grade, but that can’t be
helped now, and really, I could hardly think of anything but water.”
“I can’t think of anything else now. You were not to blame, Sid, any
more than I was. We were simply frantic, both of us.”
“Don’t you think, Ray, that we could stay here till daylight? That
would be better than to blunder around in the dark, and wear
ourselves out, and perhaps break our arms and legs.”
Raymond stood without replying, and Sidney continued:—
“We can leave here just as soon as it is light enough to get down the
mountain. We can go straight down, then, and it probably won’t be
more than two or three miles. And I believe we’ll find water when
we get there, Ray. It will be flowing in the mouth of the cañon, if
anywhere.”
“Can you stay here till morning without water, Sid?” asked Raymond
finally.
“I believe I can, because I think it’s the only thing for us to do. It will
be hard, I admit. I would rather have a drink now than anything else
under Heaven.”
Raymond threw his blankets down on the ground and began to
unroll them without speaking.
“Won’t you eat a little bread first, Ray?” asked his brother.
“No; I can’t eat.”
“I think we ought to eat something, though. If we don’t we’ll be so
weak by morning we shan’t be able to reach water. If we chew the
driest part of the bread very thoroughly we can swallow it.”
“All right,” said Raymond dully; “give me a piece.”
Sidney opened his knapsack, felt for the driest piece of bread, and,
breaking off the driest portion of that, handed it to Raymond. Then
he selected a bit for himself and they sat on their blankets and
munched the crusts. Even with the most faithful chewing they found
it difficult to swallow the morsels, but they persevered and managed
to consume nearly all of the pieces which Sidney had apportioned
them.
Then they opened their blankets on the smoothest bit of ground
they could find in the dark, and huddled down in them. Neither boy
felt like talking. The reclining position was a relief, for their fatigue
was great, but the rest it brought was more a sort of apathy than
sleep.
They had not been lying long when Raymond began to mutter and
talk unintelligibly and frequently started up violently. Sidney spoke to
him at such times, but was unable to attract his attention, so finally,
when the boy sprang up in such a frenzy, Sidney would reach out
and place his hand soothingly on Raymond’s shoulder or his hand,
and that always quieted him.
That occurred at such frequent intervals that it seemed to Sidney as
though it had gone on forever, and would continue without end. He
would no more than settle down in his blankets and sink into a
delicious stupor when Raymond would jump up and cry out, and he
would have to take hold of him to quiet him. So it went with almost
mechanical regularity until Sidney was dazed.
But extreme exhaustion at length prevailed and both boys lay
without moving. That change took place so near morning that when
the boys had become quiet they did not wake early as they
intended. They did not rouse at all until the sun shone hot upon
them, then Sidney opened his eyes. He could not remember at first
where he was. His mouth felt queer and stiff and uncomfortably full
of something. He looked about, vaguely at first, when his gaze
rested on Raymond and it all came back to him. He remembered
their flight in the dark from the village, their having taken the wrong
road, and their failure to find water.
The thought of water brought Sidney’s mind back to his own
condition and he realized that the something which filled his mouth
so uncomfortably was his tongue, which was badly swollen. That
realization made him get up as quickly as he was able. He stood and
looked down into the valley. The trail which they had followed by
mistake had taken them along the side of the mountain until they
were directly above the gorge that narrowed from the upper end of
the valley. Down there, glistening in the sun, perhaps two miles
away, Sidney saw a thread of water. At the sight he started to
plunge down the mountain to reach it, but he had taken no more
than two or three steps when he remembered with a shock that he
was leaving his brother behind.
With a crucial effort Sidney relinquished the thought of prompt relief
and turned back and spoke to Raymond in a voice that was thick
and unmanageable, but received no reply. Then he stooped and took
hold of him, but was obliged to shake him several times before he
roused.
Raymond finally looked around and sat up, but did not seem to
comprehend what was wanted. Sidney tried to explain that there
was water in sight, but his voice was little more than a croak. At last
he succeeded in getting Raymond on his feet and started with him
down the mountain. Each boy wore his knapsack still slung over his
shoulder, but their blankets and cloaks they did not think about, and
left lying on the ground.
It was a difficult task that Sidney had before him. His own wits were
so befuddled by raging thirst that he could not think clearly, and it
was only by a supreme effort of the will that he could fix his mind on
a subject and keep it there. Two days and nights only without water,
but when his mind tried to go back to that last drink in the jail, it
seemed as though half a lifetime must have passed since.
Raymond was able to help himself very little; he could only stumble
forward when he was guided and supported by his brother. In that
way they proceeded slowly down the mountain slope. Sidney had
almost uncontrollable impulses to desert his brother and rush
headlong down the hill to the water which he knew was at its foot,
but he had a dim, undefined fear that if he did that he would not get
back to Raymond until it was too late. So he stuck by his brother
and they went down together.
Two miles is not far, and it was probably not more than that from the
place where the boys slept, or rather where they passed the night,
on the mountain, down to the bottom of the gorge. Moreover, the
goal was in plain view, and every step was down hill. But to Sidney,
who was nearly at the point of collapse, and who was burdened with
his almost insensible brother, the distance over the rocky, broken
ground seemed interminable.
The boys stumbled along, Sidney dragging his brother and
sometimes falling and picking himself up with difficulty. Raymond,
too, frequently fell over rocks and into holes, and was pulled up by
his companion. Each time that happened it became increasingly
difficult to put the boy on his feet again.
Hours, it seemed to Sidney, passed in the endless struggle. Finally,
however, they reached a point where the descent became abruptly
much steeper, the last nearly a perpendicular drop to the bottom of
the gorge. That was the hardest stretch of all. Down that declivity
Sidney went first, supporting his brother’s weight on his shoulders. It
was but little better than carrying an inert body, and the boy
trembled with the strain. But it came to an end, and with his nearly
inanimate burden he dropped on the sand at the bottom of the cliff.
Sidney lay there panting, his parched nostrils unable properly to
admit air to his lungs, and his mouth and throat so swollen and dry
that but little aid was possible that way. For a few moments he
nearly lost consciousness; then came a remembrance of the
salvation that was so near, and he struggled to his feet and
staggered the few yards to the little stream. Throwing himself on the
ground, with his scooped hand he dashed water into his mouth and
over his face.
Oh, the blessed, indescribable relief that moisture gave! But with the
return of reason that it brought came the memory of his brother, and
with an almost superhuman effort of self-restraint, Sidney dipped up
water in his hat and went back to Raymond. Kneeling by the
unconscious boy’s side, he plunged his hand into the water and
dripped the life-giving fluid into Raymond’s mouth and over his face.
Occasionally he allowed himself the luxury of a sip, but he resolutely
refused to allow his own desire to interfere with his ministry to his
brother, until Raymond began to stir and opened his eyes.
CHAPTER XII
RESTING
T he boys need not have been uneasy about water, for as they
advanced to the main range every ravine was the bed of a
foaming torrent, and there were no more dry camps. The trail
crossed the streams by bridges of curious construction. Sometimes
the bridge spanned a gorge high above the stream, and sometimes
it was thrown across from banks that were near the water.
To build the bridges logs were projected a few feet from one side,
being held in place by an abutment of rocks which was built about
them and in which they were bedded. Above those logs were laid
other longer ones which projected a few feet farther, and were
lashed to the lower ones by leather thongs, secured at the inner end
by the rock abutment. That was repeated until from each side
extended a span so far out that finally the intervening space could
be covered by a length of poles. Then a hand-rail was placed along
each side, and the result was a rude but stable and safe suspension
bridge.
The bridges were a never-failing source of interest and wonder to
the boys. Each one that they crossed seemed quite as remarkable as
the first one had appeared, and they always stopped to look in
admiration. Days afterward, in Batum, when they were describing
their mountain journey to an English-speaking Russian, they were
told that in all the mountain region the building of bridges was so
difficult that the destruction of one was punished by death.
Raymond shot another rabbit, which eked out their scanty stock of
bread and cheese for a couple of days. Then, as the food was almost
gone, they decided they must stop at the first village they came to.
That they found situated high on a mountain-side. Though they had
sighted the houses early in the afternoon, the climb up to them was
so steep and so long that night was closing in when they arrived.
That village, like the one from which they had escaped, was built in
terraces on a mountain slope, but it was much steeper, even, than
the first village. The road went up in front of the lower tier of
houses, where were standing several men, who, apparently, had
been watching the boys’ approach.
Sidney selected the most important-looking of the group and
tendered him their passport, with an inquiry for accommodation for
the night. The man received the paper, examined it curiously, and
then passed it on to another near him. It went around the circle, and
was the subject of an animated conversation, coming back in the
end to Sidney, with, however, no intelligible comment.
“Can you tell us where we will find supper and lodging?” Sidney
asked.
The man who had received the paper looked mystified and replied in
a tongue that sounded to the boys different from anything they had
previously heard: as indeed it was, for in the mountainous part of
Daghestan nearly every village has its own dialect, there being about
twenty different languages spoken in that area.
“It’s no use to talk to them, Sid,” said Raymond; “they won’t
understand a word you say.”
“I know they won’t, but I can’t just stand and stare at them. It’s
much easier to say something, even if they don’t understand.”
“We’ll have to use pantomine, the way Ramon used to with the
Tarahumaras. Let’s see what I can do.” And Raymond made the
motion of putting something into his mouth, at the same time
working his jaws vigorously.
The man laughed, as did all the others. The number present had
been increased by many who were curious to see the strangers, and
laughter and joking remarks extended through the crowd.
Raymond’s face grew very red. “They are easily amused,” he said
sarcastically, “but I’ll bet they understood what I meant.”
It was apparent that they did understand, for the man who had
been addressed beckoned to the boys to follow him, and proceeded
to a near-by house. As they were about to enter, something over the
door caught Raymond’s eye, and he stopped and stared
incredulously.
“Goodness! Sid, look over the door!” he exclaimed.
On the lintel were tacked the bony skeletons of two human hands.
“That looks pretty gruesome,” said Sidney; “I wonder what it
means.”
“I suppose it’s a pleasant reminder of some nice feud. We’d better
not show too much interest in it; they might not like that.”
The room that they entered had a floor that was earth mixed with
chopped straw packed down hard and smooth. It was quite dark,
being lighted only by the door and two small portholes of windows
that had neither sash nor glass. Supper, which consisted of a kettle
of stewed mutton, was just ready, and was placed on the floor in the
center of the room. The family gathered about the kettle, each
person provided with a sharp stick with which he fished out
fragments of meat. They also dipped pieces of black bread in the
broth, and soaked them before they were eaten. The boys were
given sticks and helped themselves as the others did, finding the
stew extremely savory.
When supper was finished there was the sound of a fife outside, and
the family all got up and went out, followed by the boys. They found
a large gathering of people, with torches placed around on the
buildings for light. The fife was playing shrilly, and as a drum began
to mark time, a man stepped out into a space that had been left in
the center. Then a woman from another side joined him and they
danced in a stately fashion. The fife and the drum vied with each
other in the noise they made, and frequently, as the couple danced,
there was a fusillade of pistol shots, fired by the spectators.
Presently, when those dancers had become weary, they retired and
their places were taken by others, who danced in the same fashion,
to the same accompaniment of pistol shots added to the music of
the fife and drum. Besides the circle of people surrounding the
dancers, many others were perched on the flat-topped roofs of the
near-by houses.
It was well into the night before the dancing ceased and the people
scattered to their homes. The boys went with their host, who
indicated some rugs on the floor where they might spread their
beds. The rugs were fine, silky, and delightfully soft.
“Gee! Sid,”—and Raymond stooped to examine the beautiful rug
before placing his blankets on it,—“if mother was here I’ll bet that
rug would go with her when she left, if she had to carry it herself.”
“She’d just go wild over them, Ray. They’re finer than anything she’s
got.”
“Heck! Sid, why can’t we buy one to take home to her?”
“I’m afraid it would be pretty heavy to pack, with the load we’ve
already got,” said Sidney doubtfully. “I’d just love to do it, though, it
would please her so.”
“We haven’t got much of a load, Sid, and these rugs are not heavy,
they’re so fine and thin. And one would be as good as another
blanket. We ought to have more bedding, anyway, as we go higher
up.”
“Well, we’ll see in the morning if we can strike a bargain with that
fellow. I’ve got to get to sleep now, I’m dead tired. I’m glad we don’t
have a dance every night.”
In the morning, when the boys had eaten and wished to depart,
Sidney took a piece of bread, and opening their knapsacks, showed
that they contained no food, at the same time holding the bread up
inquiringly. Their host understood at once that they wished to buy
food, and brought two or three loaves of black bread. Then Sidney
held four rubles out on his open hand, motioning toward their beds
to indicate that he wished to include that accommodation as well as
the food. The man took two rubles from the four, and bowed in
assent.
There still remained the rug which the boys wished to buy, and
Sidney picked up the finer of the two pieces of carpet and held it up,
saying, “How much?”
The man considered for a few moments, and held a short
consultation with his wife, after which he extended his hands with
the fingers all open.
“He means ten rubles, Sid,” said Raymond. “That’s dirt cheap.”
“It certainly is, and I guess we’d better take it.” Whereupon Sidney
nodded in affirmation and took out his purse for the money. “I hope
I’ve got enough here without going down under my clothes.”
“If you haven’t, I have a few rubles in my purse.”
“Yes, I have exactly ten rubles. When we’re out on the trail, Ray, you
must remind me to take some more money from my secret stock.”
“Now I’ll take your cloak, Sid,” said Raymond, “and carry it with my
cloak and blanket. Then you take the rug with your blanket, and that
will be about even. Gee! won’t mother be pleased with that rug! And
you certainly are a peach, Sid, with sign language.”
“I feel silly as can be when I try to talk without saying anything. I
wish we were in Mexico, or some other place where we could use
Spanish.”
When the boys started out they were obliged to drop down to the
bottom of the cañon again to pick up the trail. Then began the really
difficult part of their mountain journey. For several days they climbed
steep slopes by endless zigzags, or trod the edges of dizzy
precipices. The cañons were deep, dark, and narrow, and occurred
one right after another, with no intervening level ground. The boys
were always either straining forward to toil up a precipitous ascent,
or holding back to keep from pitching down another. And always
when they opened their bed under some sheltering rock they were
at a higher elevation than on the previous night. That meant, as a
general thing, that each camp was colder than the preceding one.
The camps soon became very cold indeed, and the boys were
obliged each night to seek a spot that was protected from the biting
winds that raced and surged from the crests above. As soon as the
sun was gone, the cold air descended from the summits to take the
place of the layers that rose from the rocks which had been warmed
during the day.
The lower portions of the range had been destitute of trees, but
between that section and the heights that were above the timber
line was a zone where a little timber grew. When the boys reached
that belt they also ran into clouds and drizzling mists.
One day the weather had been threatening and damp, but not
actually raining. Toward night, however, the clouds thickened and
descended in genuine rain. The boys saw that they would soon be
soaked through, their beds as well as their clothes. That would mean
a night of misery, so they hunted for a spot that was sheltered from
the storm. Fortune smiled on them, for almost immediately Sidney,
who had gone a little to one side of the trail to examine a ledge of
rocks for possible shelter, called out to his brother,—
“Here’s a dandy place, Ray.”
In the face of the ledge was a narrow fissure which was just wide
enough, with some squeezing, to admit the boys. Once inside,
however, the opening proved to be a good-sized cave. The ceiling
was high enough for the boys to stand upright, and there was plenty
of room for them to spread their beds comfortably. Moreover, it was
absolutely dry, and there was a thick coating of fine soil on the floor
which would make a soft bed.
“This is swell, Sid,” exclaimed Raymond, when they were inside.
“Jiminy! it’s good to be out of the rain. Just see how it’s coming
down now.”
“Yes,” replied Sidney, “it’s raining so hard that we shan’t be able to
get any wood for a fire.”
“Oh, well, it’s warm in here, and we have nothing to cook anyway. I
think there’s a little meat left, and there’s always that horrid bread.”
Raymond had succeeded in keeping them supplied with small game.
The day before he had shot two fine grouse, and there was still
some of that meat. The boys ate their cold supper and spread their
beds before it became dark, then sat in the gloom talking. Night fell
rapidly, and with the heavy downpour of rain it soon became very
dark. The boys were just about to roll up in their blankets for the
night when they heard strange noises outside. There was a low,
muttered grumbling, mingled with a strange whimpering.
The boys sat breathless, listening intently. At first they thought it
must be some large animal, though they had seen no animals larger
than rabbits. In a moment, however, the voice whimpered
complainingly, and the boys thought it was surely a person in
distress. The storm was turning colder, and the rain and sleet were
coming down in such volumes that any one caught in it, perhaps
insufficiently clothed, would suffer greatly.
Raymond was about to step to the opening and call out that there
was shelter near, when the whimpering ceased and the growling
began again, in a heavier, gruffer tone than at first. It was plain that
it could not be a human being that made such noises, and it seemed
to the frightened boys that it must be a very large animal.
“What can it be, Sid?” whispered Raymond.
“I don’t know, unless it’s a wolf. We’ve read of the terrible Russian
wolves.”
“The animal that’s growling like that is bigger than a wolf,” declared
Raymond.
“Then I hope it’s so big that it can’t squeeze in here.”
The growling and muttering continued, and steadily drew nearer.
The boys sat shivering. The cave had grown much colder, they
thought, and their teeth chattered. Suddenly the noises ceased and
there was a dreadful silence. The rain was still pouring outside, with
a steady roar on the rocks, but the boys did not notice that, and it
seemed to them that all sounds had stopped.
Silently the two sat in suspense, wondering what would happen,
whether they would suddenly be conscious of an animal in the cave
with them. Then they reflected that the entrance was so small that
no large animal could pass through, at least not quickly.
They were gazing intently toward the opening, though the darkness
was so dense that not even its outline could be distinguished. As
they sat, rigid, they realized with a shock that they were looking at
two small balls of fire which must be just outside the opening. The
fiery globes remained stationary, and colder shivers ran along the
boys’ spines.
CHAPTER XV
A BLOCKADE
W hen the boys saw the two glowing spots of fire in the entrance
to the cave, for one sickening moment they imagined that it
was something supernatural. They waited tensely for whatever
fearful development might follow.
“What can it be, Sid?” And Raymond’s voice trembled.
“It’s beyond me. Is it outside, or in?”
As they gazed, the glowing orbs rose slowly to about the height of a
man, where they again remained stationary. There was a rock wall a
short distance in front of the cave so that no sky-line could be visible
from the entrance. Consequently, in the pitch darkness there was
not the slightest suggestion of a form that could be distinguished. It
was as though the luminous points had raised independent of any
agency. But the fact of their rising to the height at which they
stopped suggested a possibility to Sidney, and he exclaimed under
his breath,—
“It must be a bear, Ray, and he’s risen to his hind legs.”
“Gee! I believe it is, and those are his eyes.”
“But don’t shoot, you would only wound him.”
Sidney’s warning was too late, for as he spoke Raymond fired. The
glowing balls wavered, rapidly disappearing and reappearing several
times, then became extinguished. At the same time there was the
sound of scratching and straining, with groaning and grunting. Then
there was a cough or two and all was quiet.
The boys waited with their hearts in their throats, expecting an
attack from some sort of formidable animal. But the silence
continued.
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