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Data Science in Theory and Practice
Data Science in Theory and Practice

Techniques for Big Data Analytics and Complex Data Sets

Maria Cristina Mariani

University of Texas, El Paso
El Paso, United States

Osei Kofi Tweneboah

Ramapo College of New Jersey
Mahwah, United States

Maria Pia Beccar-Varela

University of Texas, El Paso
El Paso, United States
This first edition first published 2022
© 2022 John Wiley and Sons, Inc.

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The right of Maria Cristina Mariani, Osei Kofi Tweneboah, and Maria Pia Beccar-Varela to be
identified as the authors of this work has been asserted in accordance with law.

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Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data applied for

ISBN: 9781119674689

Cover Design: Wiley

Cover Image: © nobeastsofierce/Shutterstock

Set in 9.5/12.5pt STIXTwoText by Straive, Chennai, India

10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1
 v

Contents

List of Figures xvii

List of Tables xxi
Preface xxiii

1 Background of Data Science 1

1.1 Introduction 1
1.2 Origin of Data Science 2
1.3 Who is a Data Scientist? 2
1.4 Big Data 3
1.4.1 Characteristics of Big Data 4
1.4.2 Big Data Architectures 5

2 Matrix Algebra and Random Vectors 7

2.1 Introduction 7
2.2 Some Basics of Matrix Algebra 7
2.2.1 Vectors 7
2.2.2 Matrices 8
2.3 Random Variables and Distribution Functions 12
2.3.1 The Dirichlet Distribution 15
2.3.2 Multinomial Distribution 17
2.3.3 Multivariate Normal Distribution 18
2.4 Problems 19

3 Multivariate Analysis 21
3.1 Introduction 21
3.2 Multivariate Analysis: Overview 21
3.3 Mean Vectors 22
3.4 Variance–Covariance Matrices 24
3.5 Correlation Matrices 26
vi Contents

3.6 Linear Combinations of Variables 28

3.6.1 Linear Combinations of Sample Means 29
3.6.2 Linear Combinations of Sample Variance and Covariance 29
3.6.3 Linear Combinations of Sample Correlation 30
3.7 Problems 31

4 Time Series Forecasting 35

4.1 Introduction 35
4.2 Terminologies 36
4.3 Components of Time Series 39
4.3.1 Seasonal 39
4.3.2 Trend 40
4.3.3 Cyclical 41
4.3.4 Random 42
4.4 Transformations to Achieve Stationarity 42
4.5 Elimination of Seasonality via Differencing 44
4.6 Additive and Multiplicative Models 44
4.7 Measuring Accuracy of Different Time Series Techniques 45
4.7.1 Mean Absolute Deviation 46
4.7.2 Mean Absolute Percent Error 46
4.7.3 Mean Square Error 47
4.7.4 Root Mean Square Error 48
4.8 Averaging and Exponential Smoothing Forecasting Methods 48
4.8.1 Averaging Methods 49
4.8.1.1 Simple Moving Averages 49
4.8.1.2 Weighted Moving Averages 51
4.8.2 Exponential Smoothing Methods 54
4.8.2.1 Simple Exponential Smoothing 54
4.8.2.2 Adjusted Exponential Smoothing 55
4.9 Problems 57

5 Introduction to R 61
5.1 Introduction 61
5.2 Basic Data Types 62
5.2.1 Numeric Data Type 62
5.2.2 Integer Data Type 62
5.2.3 Character 63
5.2.4 Complex Data Types 63
5.2.5 Logical Data Types 64
5.3 Simple Manipulations – Numbers and Vectors 64
5.3.1 Vectors and Assignment 64
 Contents vii

5.3.2 Vector Arithmetic 65

5.3.3 Vector Index 66
5.3.4 Logical Vectors 67
5.3.5 Missing Values 68
5.3.6 Index Vectors 69
5.3.6.1 Indexing with Logicals 69
5.3.6.2 A Vector of Positive Integral Quantities 69
5.3.6.3 A Vector of Negative Integral Quantities 69
5.3.6.4 Named Indexing 69
5.3.7 Other Types of Objects 70
5.3.7.1 Matrices 70
5.3.7.2 List 72
5.3.7.3 Factor 73
5.3.7.4 Data Frames 75
5.3.8 Data Import 76
5.3.8.1 Excel File 76
5.3.8.2 CSV File 76
5.3.8.3 Table File 77
5.3.8.4 Minitab File 77
5.3.8.5 SPSS File 77
5.4 Problems 78

6 Introduction to Python 81
6.1 Introduction 81
6.2 Basic Data Types 82
6.2.1 Number Data Type 82
6.2.1.1 Integer 82
6.2.1.2 Floating-Point Numbers 83
6.2.1.3 Complex Numbers 84
6.2.2 Strings 84
6.2.3 Lists 85
6.2.4 Tuples 86
6.2.5 Dictionaries 86
6.3 Number Type Conversion 87
6.4 Python Conditions 87
6.4.1 If Statements 88
6.4.2 The Else and Elif Clauses 89
6.4.3 The While Loop 90
6.4.3.1 The Break Statement 91
6.4.3.2 The Continue Statement 91
6.4.4 For Loops 91
viii Contents

6.4.4.1 Nested Loops 92

6.5 Python File Handling: Open, Read, and Close 93
6.6 Python Functions 93
6.6.1 Calling a Function in Python 94
6.6.2 Scope and Lifetime of Variables 94
6.7 Problems 95

7 Algorithms 97
7.1 Introduction 97
7.2 Algorithm – Definition 97
7.3 How to Write an Algorithm 98
7.3.1 Algorithm Analysis 99
7.3.2 Algorithm Complexity 99
7.3.3 Space Complexity 100
7.3.4 Time Complexity 100
7.4 Asymptotic Analysis of an Algorithm 101
7.4.1 Asymptotic Notations 102
7.4.1.1 Big O Notation 102
7.4.1.2 The Omega Notation, Ω 102
7.4.1.3 The Θ Notation 102
7.5 Examples of Algorithms 104
7.6 Flowchart 104
7.7 Problems 105

8 Data Preprocessing and Data Validations 109

8.1 Introduction 109
8.2 Definition – Data Preprocessing 109
8.3 Data Cleaning 110
8.3.1 Handling Missing Data 110
8.3.2 Types of Missing Data 110
8.3.2.1 Missing Completely at Random 110
8.3.2.2 Missing at Random 110
8.3.2.3 Missing Not at Random 111
8.3.3 Techniques for Handling the Missing Data 111
8.3.3.1 Listwise Deletion 111
8.3.3.2 Pairwise Deletion 111
8.3.3.3 Mean Substitution 112
8.3.3.4 Regression Imputation 112
8.3.3.5 Multiple Imputation 112
8.3.4 Identifying Outliers and Noisy Data 113
8.3.4.1 Binning 113
 Contents ix

8.3.4.2 Box and Whisker plot 113

8.4 Data Transformations 115
8.4.1 Min–Max Normalization 115
8.4.2 Z-score Normalization 115
8.5 Data Reduction 116
8.6 Data Validations 117
8.6.1 Methods for Data Validation 117
8.6.1.1 Simple Statistical Criterion 117
8.6.1.2 Fourier Series Modeling and SSC 118
8.6.1.3 Principal Component Analysis and SSC 118
8.7 Problems 119

9 Data Visualizations 121

9.1 Introduction 121
9.2 Definition – Data Visualization 121
9.2.1 Scientific Visualization 123
9.2.2 Information Visualization 123
9.2.3 Visual Analytics 124
9.3 Data Visualization Techniques 126
9.3.1 Time Series Data 126
9.3.2 Statistical Distributions 127
9.3.2.1 Stem-and-Leaf Plots 127
9.3.2.2 Q–Q Plots 127
9.4 Data Visualization Tools 129
9.4.1 Tableau 129
9.4.2 Infogram 130
9.4.3 Google Charts 132
9.5 Problems 133

10 Binomial and Trinomial Trees 135

10.1 Introduction 135
10.2 The Binomial Tree Method 135
10.2.1 One Step Binomial Tree 136
10.2.2 Using the Tree to Price a European Option 139
10.2.3 Using the Tree to Price an American Option 140
10.2.4 Using the Tree to Price Any Path Dependent Option 141
10.3 Binomial Discrete Model 141
10.3.1 One-Step Method 141
10.3.2 Multi-step Method 145
10.3.2.1 Example: European Call Option 146
10.4 Trinomial Tree Method 147
x Contents

10.4.1 What is the Meaning of Little o and Big O? 148

10.5 Problems 148

11 Principal Component Analysis 151

11.1 Introduction 151
11.2 Background of Principal Component Analysis 151
11.3 Motivation 152
11.3.1 Correlation and Redundancy 152
11.3.2 Visualization 153
11.4 The Mathematics of PCA 153
11.4.1 The Eigenvalues and Eigenvectors 156
11.5 How PCA Works 159
11.5.1 Algorithm 160
11.6 Application 161
11.7 Problems 162

12 Discriminant and Cluster Analysis 165

12.1 Introduction 165
12.2 Distance 165
12.3 Discriminant Analysis 166
12.3.1 Kullback–Leibler Divergence 167
12.3.2 Chernoff Distance 167
12.3.3 Application – Seismic Time Series 169
12.3.4 Application – Financial Time Series 171
12.4 Cluster Analysis 173
12.4.1 Partitioning Algorithms 174
12.4.2 k-Means Algorithm 174
12.4.3 k-Medoids Algorithm 175
12.4.4 Application – Seismic Time Series 176
12.4.5 Application – Financial Time Series 176
12.5 Problems 177

13 Multidimensional Scaling 179

13.1 Introduction 179
13.2 Motivation 180
13.3 Number of Dimensions and Goodness of Fit 182
13.4 Proximity Measures 183
13.5 Metric Multidimensional Scaling 183
13.5.1 The Classical Solution 184
13.6 Nonmetric Multidimensional Scaling 186
13.6.1 Shepard–Kruskal Algorithm 186
13.7 Problems 187
 Contents xi

14 Classification and Tree-Based Methods 191

14.1 Introduction 191
14.2 An Overview of Classification 191
14.2.1 The Classification Problem 192
14.2.2 Logistic Regression Model 192
14.2.2.1 l1 Regularization 193
14.2.2.2 l2 Regularization 194
14.3 Linear Discriminant Analysis 194
14.3.1 Optimal Classification and Estimation of Gaussian Distribution 195
14.4 Tree-Based Methods 197
14.4.1 One Single Decision Tree 197
14.4.2 Random Forest 198
14.5 Applications 200
14.6 Problems 202

15 Association Rules 205

15.1 Introduction 205
15.2 Market Basket Analysis 205
15.3 Terminologies 207
15.3.1 Itemset and Support Count 207
15.3.2 Frequent Itemset 207
15.3.3 Closed Frequent Itemset 207
15.3.4 Maximal Frequent Itemset 208
15.3.5 Association Rule 208
15.3.6 Rule Evaluation Metrics 208
15.4 The Apriori Algorithm 210
15.4.1 An example of the Apriori Algorithm 211
15.5 Applications 213
15.5.1 Confidence 214
15.5.2 Lift 215
15.5.3 Conviction 215
15.6 Problems 216

16 Support Vector Machines 219

16.1 Introduction 219
16.2 The Maximal Margin Classifier 219
16.3 Classification Using a Separating Hyperplane 223
16.4 Kernel Functions 225
16.5 Applications 225
16.6 Problems 227
xii Contents

17 Neural Networks 231

17.1 Introduction 231
17.2 Perceptrons 231
17.3 Feed Forward Neural Network 231
17.4 Recurrent Neural Networks 233
17.5 Long Short-Term Memory 234
17.5.1 Residual Connections 235
17.5.2 Loss Functions 236
17.5.3 Stochastic Gradient Descent 236
17.5.4 Regularization – Ensemble Learning 237
17.6 Application 237
17.6.1 Emergent and Developed Market 237
17.6.2 The Lehman Brothers Collapse 237
17.6.3 Methodology 238
17.6.4 Analyses of Data 238
17.6.4.1 Results of the Emergent Market Index 238
17.6.4.2 Results of the Developed Market Index 238
17.7 Significance of Study 239
17.8 Problems 240

18 Fourier Analysis 245

18.1 Introduction 245
18.2 Definition 245
18.3 Discrete Fourier Transform 246
18.4 The Fast Fourier Transform (FFT) Method 247
18.5 Dynamic Fourier Analysis 250
18.5.1 Tapering 251
18.5.2 Daniell Kernel Estimation 252
18.6 Applications of the Fourier Transform 253
18.6.1 Modeling Power Spectrum of Financial Returns Using Fourier
Transforms 253
18.6.2 Image Compression 259
18.7 Problems 259

19 Wavelets Analysis 261

19.1 Introduction 261
19.1.1 Wavelets Transform 262
19.2 Discrete Wavelets Transforms 264
19.2.1 Haar Wavelets 265
19.2.1.1 Haar Functions 265
19.2.1.2 Haar Transform Matrix 266
 Contents xiii

19.2.2 Daubechies Wavelets 267

19.3 Applications of the Wavelets Transform 269
19.3.1 Discriminating Between Mining Explosions and Cluster of
Earthquakes 269
19.3.1.1 Background of Data 269
19.3.1.2 Results 269
19.3.2 Finance 271
19.3.3 Damage Detection in Frame Structures 275
19.3.4 Image Compression 275
19.3.5 Seismic Signals 275
19.4 Problems 276

20 Stochastic Analysis 279

20.1 Introduction 279
20.2 Necessary Definitions from Probability Theory 279
20.3 Stochastic Processes 280
20.3.1 The Index Set  281
20.3.2 The State Space  281
20.3.3 Stationary and Independent Components 281
20.3.4 Stationary and Independent Increments 282
20.3.5 Filtration and Standard Filtration 283
20.4 Examples of Stochastic Processes 284
20.4.1 Markov Chains 285
20.4.1.1 Examples of Markov Processes 286
20.4.1.2 The Chapman–Kolmogorov Equation 287
20.4.1.3 Classification of States 289
20.4.1.4 Limiting Probabilities 290
20.4.1.5 Branching Processes 291
20.4.1.6 Time Homogeneous Chains 293
20.4.2 Martingales 294
20.4.3 Simple Random Walk 294
20.4.4 The Brownian Motion (Wiener Process) 294
20.5 Measurable Functions and Expectations 295
20.5.1 Radon–Nikodym Theorem and Conditional Expectation 296
20.6 Problems 299

21 Fractal Analysis – Lévy, Hurst, DFA, DEA 301

21.1 Introduction and Definitions 301
21.2 Lévy Processes 301
21.2.1 Examples of Lévy Processes 304
21.2.1.1 The Poisson Process (Jumps) 305
21.2.1.2 The Compound Poisson Process 305
Exploring the Variety of Random
Documents with Different Content
 “I’ve been wondering,” he said after a little time. “I’ve been wondering
...” and then he coughed suddenly. “Would you come with me to New
York?”
At this speech Ellen looked at him with a sudden penetrating glance, as
if she failed to understand his meaning. Then, with the caution of a proud
nature, she said, “But you see, I haven’t enough money yet. It takes money
for a girl alone in a city.” She did not expose herself to the peril of being
hurt.
But Clarence, now that he was started, rushed on, “I don’t mean that ... I
mean ... would you marry me? Would you come as my wife?”

The sound of the distant skating had died away until by now only the
faintest ring of steel singing upon the ice was borne by the rising wind into
the little cove. In the darkness Ellen bowed her head and sat thus silently for
a long time. Her thoughts, whatever they may have been, were interrupted
presently by the sound of Clarence’s voice, softer this time, and less
frightened, though it still carried a timidity, almost the abjectness of an
apology.
“I could help you.... I could make money and you could go on with your
music. You see, this didn’t come over me suddenly. I’ve thought about it
before ... ever since I saw you that first time.”
There was nothing in the least dominating in his manner. He sat there at
a proper distance from her, mild and gentle, pleading his case. It was clear
that he was even a little frightened, as if he had spoken almost without
willing it. But the little vein in his throat which Lily had noticed so long
before began to throb, slowly at first and then with steadily mounting
rapidity. If Lily had been there, she would have understood its significance
as surely as a ship’s captain watching his barometer in a storm. Lily
understood such things.
When at last Ellen raised her head, it was to look at him directly and
with a certain appraising frankness.
“Yes.... I’ll marry you,” she said at last. She spoke breathlessly, her voice
clouded by a faint choking sound as if for the first time in her life she were
really frightened.
“I’m glad,” said Clarence. “You see, I want to be great and famous some
day. I want to be rich, and I want some one to share it with me. I couldn’t
marry May. It would be like shutting myself up in a trap.” The terrible
ambitions were loose again, running wild, leaping all bounds, intoxicating
him. “I want to be great and rich ... if I can. I never told anybody this
before, but I thought you might understand because you’re different.”
It was the longest speech he had ever made in her presence, and
throughout its duration Ellen watched him with a growing wonder mirrored
in her eyes.
“I didn’t know you felt that way,” she said almost with reverence. “You
never mentioned it before. I thought you’d be content with May.”
But all the same, her words lacked the ring of conviction. All at once she
felt herself engulfed by a great and unaccustomed wave of pity that was
quite beyond explanation. She felt that Mr. Murdock was pathetic. It was
almost as if she could weep for him. It was not until long afterward that she
understood this chaotic emotion. It passed quickly, and she said, “But you’d
better go now and find May.... Don’t wait for me ... I’m all right.... She must
be all alone by now, wondering where you are. I can look out for myself.”
And a little later Clarence, treacherously shepherding May on their last
walk together, saw in the far distance against the dying glow the black
silhouette of Ellen. Alone she moved over the crest of the high hill, walking
slowly now, her head bent in thought ... remote, proud and somehow
terrifying.
 18

I T was not until ten o’clock that Mrs. Tolliver began to grow uneasy.
There had been, after all, nothing to cause alarm. An hour before supper
Ellen had come in from skating with a countenance fresh and almost
happy. True, Gramp Tolliver had returned late from one of his expeditions
—the second that day—and was noisier and more impatient than usual in
his room above stairs. Indeed his uproar continued even after feeding time,
until long after Ellen, saying that she was to spend the evening at the
Setons’, had gone out into the rising wind. If there was anything which
alarmed Mrs. Tolliver it was the mutterings of the volcano overhead; so
great was the variety of its manifestations that she remarked upon it to her
husband.
“You know,” she said, “Gramp is restless again ... worse than ever ...
worse than he was at election time.”
From his refuge on the great threadbare sofa her husband mumbled a
reply, indistinct yet understandable because it was a speech he made so
frequently when his wife insisted upon conversation.
“You’re worrying again.... There’s nothing to worry about.”
But she knew that she was right. It was a feeling which was almost
physical, an intuition, an instinct which her husband, in the way of fathers
(which at best were but poor things), did not share. After all he came by his
conclusions in a logical fashion, not without the aid of a peculiar and
individual philosophy, and therefore, by omitting the human equation, he
gave his wife the opportunity more than once of saying, “I told you so.”
Though Mrs. Tolliver rocked and darned placidly enough, she was not,
even out of respect for her husband’s love of slumber and forgetfulness, to
be kept silent. When Ellen was out and there was no flow of music to bind
together the comfort of the evening, it was necessary to talk; otherwise the
peace became mere stillness, and the contentment a barren boredom. For
Mrs. Tolliver needed constant evidence of happiness or cordiality. It was a
thing not to be taken easily and for granted; one must make a show of it.
“He behaved like this, only not as bad, when Judge Weissman—the dirty
scoundrel—bought the last election.”
 This time the only reply from the sofa was an engulfing silence, broken
now and then by the aggravating sound of heavy breathing.
“Why don’t you say something?” she said at last in exasperation. “Why
don’t you talk to me? I work all day and then when evening comes, all you
do is to sleep.”
The blanket on the sofa heaved a little and Charles Tolliver changed his
position, muttering at the same time, “What shall I say? What do you want
me to say?” And then after a pregnant silence, “If Gramp is ranting around,
I don’t see what we can do about it.”
He spoke thus of his father in the most natural fashion. It was as if the
old man were something of a stranger to him, a vague figure entirely
outside the circle of the family existence.
After another long silence, Mrs. Tolliver observed, “It’s nearly eleven
o’clock and Ellen hasn’t come in yet.” Then she leaned forward to address
her sons who lay sprawled on the floor, the older one reading as usual, the
other lying on his back staring in his sulky way at the ceiling. “You boys
must go to bed now. I’ll come up with you and see that you’re tucked in
properly. It’s a cold night.”
The three departed and after a time, during which the hall clock sounded
the hour of eleven, she descended from the neat upper regions and went into
the kitchen to see that the door was locked, that the dog was on his mat, that
the tap was not dripping, indeed, to oversee all the minutiæ of the
household that were the very breath of her existence. When at last she
reëntered the living room there was in her manner every evidence of
agitation. She approached her husband and shook him from his comfortable
oblivion.
“I don’t understand about Ellen,” she said. “It’s very late. Maybe you’d
better go over to the Setons’ and see what has happened to her.”
But her spouse only groaned and muttered. “Wait a while.... Like as not
she’s in bed asleep.”
“That couldn’t be ... not without my knowing it.”
What she would have done next was a matter for speculation, but before
she had opportunity to act there rang through the silent house the sound of
the doorbell being pushed violently and with annoying energy. It rang in a
series of staccato periods, broken now and then with a single long and
violent clamor. At the sound Mrs. Tolliver ran, and, as she approached the
door, she cried out, “Yes!... Yes!... I’m coming. You needn’t wear out the
battery!”
On opening it she discovered on the outside that source of all evil,
Jimmy Seton. Even at sight of her he was unable to relinquish the pleasure
of ringing the bell. Indeed he kept his hand upon the button until she
knocked it loose by a sudden slap on the wrist.
“What do you mean by ringing like that?”
Jimmy, unabashed, faced her. “Ma,” he began, in his shrill voice, “wants
to know if Mr. Murdock is over here. He ain’t been at our house since
before supper. He said he was going to the barber shop and he never came
back.”
For an instant, Mrs. Tolliver, wisely, held her tongue. The old instinct,
working rapidly, told her that she must protect Ellen. It was clear then that
the girl had not gone to the Setons’. Where could she be? Where was Mr.
Murdock? Within the space of a second unspeakable catastrophes framed
themselves in her mind. But she managed to answer. “He’s not here. He
hasn’t been here. I don’t know anything about him.”
“All right,” said Jimmy. “I’ll tell her.”
He made a faint gesture toward the button of the doorbell but Mrs.
Tolliver thrust her powerful body between him and the object of his
temptation, so that Jimmy, with a baffled air, turned and sped away into the
darkness. When he had vanished she closed the door slowly, and stood for
an instant leaning against it. Then, before she moved away, she raised her
voice in a summons.
“Papa!” she called, “Papa! Something has happened. Ellen wasn’t at the
Setons’ and Mr. Murdock is missing.”

In the moment or two while she stood thus with her hand resting on the
knob of the door, there passed quickly through her mind in a series of
isolated fragments all the events and the forebodings of the past few weeks.
Gradually these fitted into a pattern. She understood well enough what had
happened; she knew that Ellen had gone. Yet she refused to admit this, as if
by refusing to acknowledge the fact it might come gradually to have no
existence. She understood Gramp Tolliver’s ominous outburst of
restlessness, Ellen’s strange look of triumph, the air almost of happiness
which had come over the girl. Only one thing she could not understand....
Clarence Murdock! After all, Ellen had mocked him as something quite
beneath her consideration. Why had she chosen him?
In that single brief moment she was hurt more deeply than she was ever
hurt again. Those things which came afterward were not so cruel because
she came in time to be used to them. But this ... this was so sudden, so
cruel. She had no defenses ready, not even the defense which the less
primitive have—a capacity for putting themselves into the shoes of the
other fellow, of understanding why he should have acted thus and so. No,
there was nothing, save only a sudden sharp physical pain and that which
was far greater—a fear for a child who was gone suddenly from her
protection.

When she reëntered the warm living room, she found her husband sitting
on the edge of his sofa. Because he was a man who enjoyed his sleep and
was reluctant to shake it off, he was not altogether awake.
“You say,” he murmured drowsily, “that Ellen has run off with that
Murdock?”
“They are both gone.... They must have gone together.”
This the husband considered for a moment. Foolishly exalting logic
above intuition, he asked, “How do you know?” To which his wife retorted,
“Know! Know! Because I do know! I’m sure of it.... What are we going to
do?” Suddenly she leaned forward and shook him violently. “Why, they’re
not even married. They can’t have been and they’ve gone off together.
Anything might happen.”
The husband, out of the depths of knowledge which arose not from
instinct or profound love but from long speculation upon the human race
answered, “Don’t worry about that. Ellen’s no fool! She’s not in love with
him!”
“When you talk like that, you’re like your father!” Nothing could have
signified in clearer fashion the gravity of the situation, for this was a retort
which Mrs. Tolliver used only upon occasions of profound disaster. It was,
she believed, the most cruel thing she could say. This time she did not wait
for him to reply.
“What train have they taken?... They’re bound to go east. Perhaps you
can stop them. Come! Get up.... If you don’t go I will!”
 With exasperating slowness her husband gained his feet. “There’s a train
a little after eleven.” He regarded his watch. “We might be able to catch
them, though I don’t think I can make it.”
Already his wife stood before him with the coat she had taken from the
living room closet. “Here!” she said. “And wrap your throat well. It’s a
bitter night.” Then she herself helped him into his coat and fastened his
muffler with great care. Before she had finished, he asked, “What sort of a
person is this Murdock?”
“It’s no time to ask that.... Go! Hurry!”
Barely had these speeding words fallen from her lips when from
overhead there came with the suddenness of an explosion the sound of a
terrific crash, as if some part of the house had suddenly collapsed. The
sound distinctly came from the rear. The volcano at last had burst forth!
In a breathless instant, the pair faced each other. It was Mrs. Tolliver
who spoke first.
“What has he done now?” And with a fierce emphasis she added, “I
think the Devil himself has gotten into him.” Then she recovered herself
quickly. “Go! Go! Catch Ellen. I’ll take care of Gramp.”
He argued for a moment—one precious moment—and losing as usual,
was sped on his way by his powerful wife.

When her husband had vanished sleepily into the darkness, Mrs. Tolliver
made her way up the back stairs to the room under the tin roof. As she
opened the door, there rose before her in the flickering light of the kerosene
lamp a room which had the appearance of a place wrecked by a cyclone.
One of the vast bookcases lay overturned, the worn leather volumes
sprawled in a wild confusion about the floor. Bits of paper covered with
bird track handwriting lay scattered like fallen leaves and at one side, a little
removed from the path of the catastrophe, lay stretched at full length the
brittle body of Gramp Tolliver, still and apparently unconscious. There was
in its rigidity something ghastly. Only a miracle had saved him from being
buried under his own books, battered and broken perhaps by his own
beloved Decline and Fall.
Climbing over the wreckage, Mrs. Tolliver leaned down and took the
body of the old man in her arms. Thus a truce was declared, and when the
one enemy had made certain that the other was still alive, she went
downstairs, wrapped a shawl about her and fetched a doctor.
 19

I T was midnight when Charles Tolliver returned alone. Without removing

his coat or the carefully bound muffler, he made his way through the
house to the back stairs which he climbed slowly and with an air of
sheepishness. His wife was, after all, no easy woman to face under
conditions like this. The news he had for her was not the best. Indeed it is
probable that he experienced a great relief when he found that his wife was
not alone. In the dusty room thrown now into a wild disorder which Mrs.
Tolliver was already vigorously engaged in clearing away, the doctor stood
beside the bed. There was a quality of the grotesque in the battered figure of
the old man and the fantastic shadow of the physician cast by the flickering
light upon the wall. At the sound of his footsteps Mrs. Tolliver, still holding
in her arms volumes three and four of the Decline and Fall, looked up from
her task. She stared hard at him as if by concentration she might produce
out of thin air the figure of her daughter. But there was no mistake. He was
alone.
It was Charles Tolliver who spoke first. He found no pleasure in airing
his troubles in public, so he said nothing of his errand. “What’s the matter
with Gramp?”
The doctor faced him. He was a short fat man with little mutton chop
whiskers. “It seems he’s had a stroke,” he murmured. “And yet I don’t
know. It might be something else. The symptoms aren’t right.” And he took
up once more the bony wrist, to count the pulse. Instantly Mrs. Tolliver
stepped close to her husband.
“Did you find her?” she asked in a low voice.
“No.... The train was pulling out just as I reached the station. I was a
minute too late.”
“It was Gramp who let her get away. If you hadn’t stayed to argue. You
could have hurried. My God, who knows what will happen to her.... My
little girl!”
“She isn’t that.... Not any longer.”
But before she could reply the doctor interrupted. “No, I don’t know
what it is. His pulse seems all right and he has no fever.” And the little man
fell to wagging his head, in the manner of a physician who was always
secretly doubtful of his own opinion. “To-morrow I’ll fetch another doctor.
We’ll have to have a consultation.”
After that he packed his bag, wrapped himself up to the throat and
bidding them good night in a mournful, bedside whisper, as if (thought
Hattie sourly) Gramp had been an adored child cut off in the bloom of
youth, made his way down the creaking stairs.
When he had gone, Mrs. Tolliver turned abruptly and said again, “You
could have made it if Gramp hadn’t thrown this fit. And now she’s gone....”
In the shadows that covered the vast bed, Gramp Tolliver’s body lay stiff
as a poker thrust beneath the sheets. But presently in the midst of the
hushed talk that went on by his side, one eye opened slowly and surveyed
the scene. For an instant there rose in the still cold air the echo—it could
not have been more than that—of a far-off demoniacal chuckle. At the
sound Mrs. Tolliver turned and approached the bed.
“He laughed,” she said to her husband. “I’m sure of it ...” and she shook
the old man gently without gaining the faintest suspicion of a response. He
lay rigid and still. At last she turned away.
“Go,” she said, “and take the next train. You might catch them at
Pittsburgh. If you haven’t enough money there’s some tied in a
handkerchief under the mattress.”
“But you.... What’ll you do?”
“Never mind me ... I’ll sit here in the rocker and keep watch....”
And until the gray winter dawn crept in at the windows she sat there,
awake, with one eye on the old man, for the echo of that wicked chuckle
had awakened in her mind the most amazing suspicions. In the single
moment that she had stood listening to the sound of the catastrophe
overhead, Ellen had made her escape.... How could he have known what no
one else knew? Yet she was certain that he had known.

Charles Tolliver did not overtake his daughter; indeed, on that night she
escaped from him forever. He saw her afterward ... long afterward, but he
never recaptured her, even for one fleeting moment. Perhaps in the dismal
solitude of a day coach filled with weary travelers rushing eastward through
the winter night, he understood this in his own way. It was, after all, a way
different from that of his father, Old Gramp, or his wife who sat patiently
now in a kind of dumb, animal agony by the side of the old man. Of Charles
Tolliver, it might have been said that he expected nothing of life, that from
the very first he had accepted life as at best a matter of compromise. One
took what came and was thankful that it was not worse. Because he was like
this people called him a weak man.
And it is impossible to say that he regretted profoundly the flight of his
daughter. In his gentleness, he understood that this thing which she had
done was inevitable. Nothing could have prevented it. Even the pursuit was
a futile thing. If Ellen were recaptured, it was vain to hope that she would
remain so; yet the pursuit was in itself a symbol of action and therefore it
satisfied his wife in at least a small way. It may even have been that in the
rare wakeful moments of his lonely, fruitless journey he envied Ellen; that
he saw in her escape a hope which had always eluded him. He had been
known since childhood as a worthy man, the unfortunate son of a father
who was worthless and a failure. He had existed always as a symbol of
virtue, as one who had stood by his mother (dead now these many years) in
the long periods of poverty and unhappiness. If he had been ruthless instead
of dutiful, if he had escaped, if he had ventured into a new world.... What
might have happened? But even this thought could not have troubled him
for long. He slipped easily back into the pleasant oblivion of sleep.
The passengers wakeful, uncomfortable, restless in the close air of the
crowded car could never have guessed that the gray-haired, handsome man,
who slept so peacefully, was a father in pursuit of an eloping daughter.

And in another train a hundred miles beyond, rushing faster and faster
toward the rising dawn, sat Ellen and Clarence Murdock. They too rode in
the common car, for the train was crowded. They sat bolt upright and rather
far apart for lovers. From time to time Clarence reached out and touched
her hand, gently, almost with deprecation, and to this she submitted quietly,
as if she were unconscious of the humble gesture toward affection. It is true
that they were both a little frightened; what had happened had happened so
quickly. Even Clarence could not have explained it. To Ellen, though she
came in the end to understand it all, it must have been a great mystery.
The romance—what little of it there had been—was all vanished now,
gone cold before the glare of the flaring lights, beneath the staring, bleary
eyes of their fellow passengers. Somehow everything had turned cold and
stuffy, touched by the taste of soot and the accumulated dust of half a
continent. The train rocked and swayed over the glittering rails, and
presently Clarence, who had been frowning for a long time over something,
said, “D’you think they’ll ever send on my hand bags?”
Ellen laughed and regarded him suddenly with a curious glance of
startled affection. For a moment one might have taken them for a mother
and child ... a mother who saw that her child must be protected and pitied a
little.
“I wouldn’t worry over that,” she answered. “What difference does it
make now?”
“And May ...” began Clarence once more.
“It’s done now,” said Ellen gravely. “Besides in a little while she’ll
forget everything and marry some one else. Any man will suit May. It’s
only a man she wants, not the man.”
But Clarence was not comforted; there was his conscience to torment
him, and worse than that there was a distrust, vague and undefined, of what
lay ahead. He could not have described it. If he had been a strong man, he
would have said, “All this is a mistake. We will not marry. It is wrong,
everything about it.” He could have turned back then and saved himself; but
he did not. He sat quietly against the dusty plush, watching Ellen now and
then out of the corner of his nice eyes with the manner of a man resting
upon the rim of a volcano.
By dawn the train had come in sight of the furnaces on the outskirts of
Pittsburgh and the color of the flames mingled with the cold gray of the
January sky. He had come out on the train with Lily; he was going back on
the train with her cousin. He stood there, timidly, upon the threshold of his
new world—a world filled with people who haunted those rare flights of a
treacherous imagination.
 20

I T was not until noon of the following day that the amazing news
percolated fully through the houses of the Town. Women congregated and
discussed it, passionately; men greeted each other with the news, “Have
you heard that Charlie Tolliver’s girl has eloped with that young Murdock
who was visiting Skinflint Seton?” They turned the news over and over,
worrying it, adding details, filling in the gaps in a story which could have
been known to no one. And always the conclusion was the same ... that here
was another evidence of the wildness and eccentricity of the Barr family.
Old Julia Shane, in her youth, had done the same thing. And then there was
Sam Barr and his crazy perpetual motion machine. The history of this
spirited family was ransacked and a thousand odd, half-forgotten stories
brought to light. There was, of course, that element which hinted that Ellen
had eloped because the circumstances made it necessary. Women said this,
not because they believed it, but because they hated Ellen and old Julia
Shane.
In her sooty house among the Mills this grim old woman received the
news, rather later than most (it was brought her by one of her negro
servants) with a sort of wicked delight. This was a great-niece worthy of her
blood, who took matters into her own hands and acted, quickly,
sensationally! And before an hour had passed she seated herself with a quill
pen and wrote the news triumphantly to Lily who, that morning, had started
back to Paris. The letter finally overtook her daughter a month later when
Lily, installed once more in her big house in the Rue Raynouard, sat
awaiting the arrival of her friend the Baron. To him she read it aloud,
creating for his pleasure a picture of the smoky Town, of the effect the news
would have upon its residents. She described to him the fierce impetuous
Ellen. She told him the Town was a town like Roubaix or Tourcoing or
Lille, only more provincial.
Across the silver-laden tea table in her long drawing-room in Passy, she
said, “You may see her one day yourself. I’ve told her to come here and live
with me. She wants to be a great pianist.... A girl like that can accomplish
anything she sets her mind to.... But I don’t think you’ll like her.... She’s too
powerful.”
 Nearer home, the news came to May Seton and her mother a little after
midnight when Jimmy, sent a second time as messenger, brought back the
suspicion of their elopement. In the beginning the situation was
embarrassing, for May in her optimism had spread the story that the
fiançailles of Clarence and herself had been accomplished. Once this had
passed, she experienced a sort of inverted triumph, superior if possible even
to that which might have arisen from the capture of a New York young man.
She understood presently that people regarded her as a martyr, a virgin
robbed of her lover, and once she got the full sense of this she played the
rôle to perfection. Dressed in her most somber clothing, as if she mourned a
lover worse than dead, she paid and received a great number of calls,
always in company with her mother who now assumed the rôle of duenna
and garnished May’s account of the affair with appropriate and growing
details. Old ladies swooped about and settled upon the tale to pick it over
and contemplate the ruins with ghoulish satisfaction, until at length the
event, now of proportions beyond the realms of the imagination, became an
epic in the chronicles of the Town, a piece in which May Seton played the
rôle of injured innocence and Ellen that of adventuress in the grand manner
of East Lynne or Lady Audley’s Secret. In short, what had appeared in the
beginning to be a calamity, turned out to be a triumph. Husbands might be
found at every turn, but public martyrdom comes rarely. Indeed before
many weeks had passed, potential husbands began to loom upon the
horizon and crowd into the middle distance. Because May in her
bereavement had become what she had never been ... a figure of interest.
But there was one part of the story which remained known to only one
person in the Town. It was the space of time which elapsed between the
hour that Clarence departed for the mythical barber shop and the hour the
train left for the east. This was a matter of five hours, in which much might
have taken place. No one seemed able to account for it. No one had seen
either of them. They had, to all intents, disappeared for five hours ... a thing
which in the Town was incredible.
Yet there was one person who knew, and she was the last whom any one
could suspect. It was impossible to believe that a creature so birdlike, so
gentle, could have played a part in so scandalous an affair as the rape of
May Seton’s lover. Yet it was true; the guilty pair had spent the five hours in
the room filled with conch shells and pampas grass and plush, for Miss
Ogilvie had kept her rash promise to Ellen. Indeed, the whole affair had
been planned under her very eyes. But in the little house surrounded by
lilacs and syringa bushes, she kept her secret as faithfully as she had kept
her promise, though it was the most exciting thing that had ever happened
to her. It was almost as if she herself had escaped into a great world where
there were no neighbors and no sewing circles.

But the two who suffered most were the two whose pride was greatest ...
those born enemies Mrs. Tolliver and Skinflint Seton. From the moment of
the elopement the ancient feud over the swindle of the synthetic corset stays
emerged without shame or pretense into the open, and the story became
common property that Harvey Seton had been seen on the Tollivers’ piazza
being ordered into the street because he suggested that Ellen had eloped
because the circumstances made it necessary.
Scarcely less mysterious than the missing five hours was the nature of
Gramp’s illness, a thing which had baffled the consultations and head
waggings of the Town’s best medical talent. Two days later he was up and
about again perambulating once more, in his coonskin coat, the icy
pavement of the Town. And it was with a new look of defiant malice that he
regarded the faces peering at him from behind the Boston ferns of
Sycamore Street. The sharp old eyes mocked the passers-by. They said,
“My Granddaughter has a good deal of the old man in her. She has the
courage to do as she sees fit. You’ll hear from that girl!” All this punctuated
by the sharp tap! tap! tap! of his tough hickory stick on icy pavements
where an ordinary man would long ago have slipped and broken his leg.
 21

W EEKS passed before there came from Ellen any news beyond the
mere statement that she was alive, comfortable and well, and that
although she was sorry for her actions she could not have done
otherwise. Some day, she implied with romantic overtones, they would
understand.
When at last a real letter came, it was turbulent, hard and unrepentant.
Nor was the spelling the best.
“I am sorry for May ... a little,” she wrote, “but it won’t make any
difference to her. She is in love with men and not one man. To have lost
Clarence won’t end her happiness. Any man will do as well. In a year she’ll
be married, like as not to Herman Biggs. It was different with me.
Everything depended upon Clarence ... everything, you understand. To me
he made all the difference.
“And we are happy,” she continued, as if this was, after all, a matter of
secondary importance. “Clarence loves me. We have a nice apartment quite
near to Riverside Drive that overlooks the river where the warships anchor.
It is the top floor of an enormous apartment house ... ten stories high, and
the view is wonderful. You can see over half the city. It is called the
Babylon Arms.
“You see, Clarence and two friends of his (a Mr. Bunce and a Mr. Wyck)
shared it before I came and now we have it to ourselves, because his two
friends kindly moved elsewhere. Mr. Bunce is nice but Mr. Wyck is a poor
sport, always talking about his relatives. You see, he’s what he calls an ‘old
New Yorker,’ sort of run-down and pathetic, and awfully dependent. I think
he hates me for having taken Clarence away from him, and for breaking up
the apartment. But it doesn’t matter. He’s too insignificant to count.
“Mr. Bunce got married the other day. He says we drove him to it,
chasing him out into the street with no place to live. That’s the way he talks
... hearty and pleasant but a bit noisy. The girl isn’t much—a big, pleasant
girl like himself whose father is a building contractor in Hoboken, which is
really a suburb of New York.”
And so she sketched briefly, and with the careless cynicism of youth, the
downfall of Mr. Wyck; for it is true that the reverberations of the elopement
made themselves felt in a place so far from the Town as the Magical City.
With her appearance the whole world of Mr. Wyck toppled, hung for a
moment in mid-air, and at last collapsed, leaving him in the backwater of a
grimy boarding house on lower Lexington Avenue. No longer had he any
one to admire or honor him for the sake of the ancient Wyck blood and the
spinster aunts in Yonkers. On the very day of Ellen’s arrival the name of
Wyck Street was changed to Sullivan in honor of a Tammany politician.
Night after night, a lonely little man, he sat, an outcast, on the edge of his
narrow bed, waiting for his milk to heat over the gas jet in the fourth floor
rear. He mourned Clarence who represented the only friendship he had ever
known. He mourned the Babylon Arms where for a time he had been
almost a man, independent and free. And as he mourned the hatred grew in
the recesses of his timid, unhappy soul.

It is true that in her letter Ellen revealed a great deal, but it is true that
she did not reveal everything, for there remained between her and a
complete revelation the pride which would not allow her to admit
disillusion. She did not, for example, say that the view from her windows
included, besides the noble river, glimpses of wooden shacks and bleak
factories, half-veiled in smoke and mist, on the distant Jersey shore. Nor did
she say that beneath her window there were monotonous and hideous rows
of brownstone houses, unrelieved in their ugliness even by tiny patches of
mangy grass. And she said nothing of the railway tracks that lay between
her and the river, crowded with cars that imprisoned lines of wretched cattle
standing shoulder to shoulder, whose presence sometimes filled the lofty
flat with the faint, dismal sounds and odors of the barnyard. These things
she could not bring herself to set down on paper because they would have
dimmed the splendor raised by such a name as The Babylon Arms.
Nor did she say that after all Mr. Bunce and Mr. Wyck and even perhaps
Clarence were not so different from the people in the Town; because this
might have given rise to a faint suspicion that, after all, she had not escaped.
There were things and shades of things which the Town must never know.
She understood, perhaps even then, the affair of building a career. There
must be glory, only glory, and triumph.
 And Mrs. Tolliver, reading the letter over and over in the long darkness
of the winter evenings, stirred herself night after night to observe that
“something had happened to Ellen.”
“She’s told me more in this letter than she has ever told me in all her life
before. She must be happy or she couldn’t write such a letter.”
And for a time she consoled herself with this thought, only to utter after
a long silence the eternal doubt. “I only hope he’s good enough for her.”
Then, when her husband had fallen into a final deep slumber from which
he stubbornly refused to be roused, it was the habit of the woman to go to
the piano and dissipate the terrible stillness of the lonely room with the
strains of The Blue Danube and The Ninety and Nine played laboriously
with fingers that were stained and a little stiff from hard work.
The faint, awkward sounds, arising so uncertainly from the depths of a
piano accustomed now to silence, must have roused in her a long sequence
of memories turning backward slowly as she played, into the days when she
had struggled for time from household cares to learn those pitiful tunes. The
hours spent at the old harmonium in her father’s parlor were hours stolen
from cooking and baking, from caring for her younger brothers and sisters,
hours which, so long ago, had raised in her imagination sounds and scenes
more glamorous than anything found in the borders of the country that was
her home. They were not great, these two melodies—one born of
Evangelism and the other out of the gaiety of an Austrian city—yet they
were in a fashion the little parcel of glamour which life had dealt out to
Hattie Tolliver. The rest was work and watchfulness, worries and cares.
There must have been in the woman something magnificent, for never,
even in deep recesses of her heart, did she complain of the niggardliness of
that tiny parcel. She sought only to wrest a larger share for her children, for
her Ellen who was gone now a-seeking glamour on her own.
And, of course, the sound of the music made by her stiffened fingers
may have brought back for a time something of her lost Ellen.
Because there was in Hattie no softness which would allow her to admit
defeat, she set about, once the first shock of the affair had softened, to
reconstruct all her existence upon a new plan, motivated by a single ideal.
How this change came about, she would have been the last to understand. It
came, in a sense, as a revelation. She awoke one morning and there it was,
clear as the very winter landscape—a vision of the sort which guides people
of passionate nature. True, there were circumstances which led her mind in
that one direction; there was, to be sure, the look that had come into the
blue eyes of her elder son since the day when Ellen had fled. Any one could
have seen it, a look so eloquent and so intense, which said, “I too must have
my chance. I too must go into the world.” Perhaps he remembered the half-
humorous promises to help him that Ellen had made so frequently. There
was, she knew, a secret sympathy between the two in which she played no
part. It was a look which came often enough into the eyes of Hattie
Tolliver’s family. If the boy had been old enough to reason and understand
such things, he might have said, “My grandfathers set out into a wilderness
to conquer and subdue it. It was a land filled with savages and adventure. I
too must have my chance. I am of a race of pioneers but I no longer have
any frontier. I must turn back again, as Ellen has turned, to the east!” In a
little while—a few years more—the look was certain to come into the eyes
of Robert, the youngest.
And doubtless the woman came to understand that it was impossible any
longer to hope that her husband might realize any of the wild and gaudy
dreams she had held so often before his philosophic and indifferent eyes.
He was a gentleman, and no longer young; he had indeed turned the corner
into middle age. What must be done rested with her alone.
And so, understanding that Ellen would never turn back, the plan of her
existence ceased to find its being in the smoky Town; it became instead a
pursuit of her children. If they would not remain in the home she had made
for them then she must follow them, and, like a nomad, place her tent and
build her fires where they saw fit to rest.
So she set about planning how it was possible to escape from the Town,
to transport all her family and their belongings into a world which she had
disliked and even feared but which now must be faced. Fantastical schemes
were born, reared their heads and collapsed in a brain which considered
nothing impossible. She would herself support them all if necessary, though
she had not the faintest idea of how it was to be done. Surely in a great city
like New York, there were ways of becoming rich, even fabulously so. She
had read stories in the newspapers....
But her first action was a direct one. Dressed in black merino and armed
with an umbrella which she carried on important occasions as a general
bears his baton, she assailed her enemy Judge Weissman in the sanctuary of
his untidy office, and after a scene in which she accused him of thievery,
bribery and a dozen other crimes, she bullied him, playing shrewdly upon a
horsewhipping incident out of his own past, into using his influence to gain
for her husband some new work—not mere work but a position worthy of
him and of the dignity of her family.
She won the battle and in her triumph, which mounted higher and higher
during the walk home, she gave rein in her unbounded optimism to even
wilder and more fantastic schemes. There was relief in the knowledge that
at last she had taken things into her own hands. No longer was she to be a
power behind the throne urging forward an amiable and indifferent
husband. Things must change now. She herself would act. She had achieved
an opening wedge. In time she would secure an appointment for her
husband in New York. She could take the children there. She could be
where she could drop in on Ellen at the Babylon Arms (preposterous
name!). She would watch and aid them in their progress toward success and
glory. Ah, she could wrest anything from life. It was, after all, nothing more
than a question of energy and persistence.
These thoughts were whirling madly about her brain as she turned the
corner into Sycamore Street in time to see a group of children congregated
before the path that led into the shaggy domain of the Tollivers. They
appeared to be watching something and clung to the gate peering in through
the lilacs at the vine-covered house. Unconsciously she increased her pace,
and as she approached the gate they fell back, with a look of awe and the
sort of animal curiosity which comes into the eyes of children gathered on
the scene of a catastrophe. Through their ranks and into the house, she made
her way like a fine ship in full sail.
Once inside she learned the news.
It was this—that upstairs in the room once occupied by Ellen there lay
on the bed the unconscious form of her father, the invincible Jacob Barr.
They told her that the patriarch, while superintending the loading of hay in
his mows, had made a miss-step and so crashed to the floor twenty feet
below. They had brought him to her house on a truss of hay. The doctors,
the same doctors whom Gramp Tolliver had baffled, said he might die
suddenly or that he might live for years, but he would never walk again.
When she had put the place in order and driven out the confusion which
accompanies physicians, she seated herself in a chair opposite the
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