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Intelligence Analysis
Fundamentals
http://taylorandfrancis.com
Intelligence Analysis
Fundamentals
Patrick McGlynn
Godfrey Garner
The views expressed in this text are the authors’ and do not imply endorsement by the Office of the Director
of National Intelligence (ODNI) or any other U.S. Government agency.
CRC Press
Taylor & Francis Group
6000 Broken Sound Parkway NW, Suite 300
Boca Raton, FL 33487-2742
This book contains information obtained from authentic and highly regarded sources. Reasonable efforts
have been made to publish reliable data and information, but the author and publisher cannot assume
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v
Contents
vi
Contents
6 Analytical Communication 73
Introduction 73
Basic Workings of Analytical Communication 73
Communication Preparation 74
Communication Execution 74
Product Writing Style 75
Clarity 76
Succinctness 76
Precision 77
Briefings 78
Using Product Templates 78
Sample Product Template 79
Practical Exercise 80
Mastering the BLUF Format 80
Title 81
Executive Summary and Introduction 81
Background 82
Analysis 82
Conclusion 83
Writing for Release 83
Product Visuals 84
Text Boxes 85
Analytical Communications Checklist 86
Chapter Summary 87
vii
Contents
viii
Contents
Mix 127
Integration 127
Small Element Collection Management Operations 128
Developing an Open Source Collection Plan 128
Chapter Summary 131
ix
Contents
x
Contents
xi
Contents
Index 303
xii
PREFACE
In most cases, this book exercises the approach of using military intel-
ligence examples as a starting point to explain concepts. There is a fun-
damental reason for this approach. Historically, military organizations
have practiced the profession of “intelligence.” Remembering a Sunday
school lesson from my youth as an illustration, I recollect being told that
as Moses approached the Promised Land with the army of Israel at his
side, “the Lord directed Moses to spy on the land of Canaan.”
And the Lord spoke to Moses, saying, “Send men to spy out the land
of Canaan, which I am giving to the children of Israel; from each tribe
of their fathers you shall send a man, every one a leader among them.”
Numbers 13, New King James Version (NKJV)
Sending “spies” or scouts into an unknown land to collect intelligence
on terrain, roads, watering points, and potential enemies could be called
wise or just common sense. Whichever label you choose, it is difficult to
argue the logic. With “criminal intelligence” and “business intelligence”
being constructs of the 20th century for the most part (perhaps a few hun-
dred years old, at best), the argument that the roots of military intelligence
reach back thousands of years is self-evident. The fact that military intel-
ligence has been around that long makes the body of knowledge collected
over those thousands of years far larger, richer, and more extensive. In
that context, this book takes every opportunity to compare, contrast, and
cite similar examples where military intelligence methods and concepts
can be applied to business and criminal intelligence problem sets.
Historically, the U.S. intelligence community has faced criticism for
failing to adequately predict or warn of a given attack taken on the United
States, thereby allowing the enemy to gain the element of surprise. World
War II has multiple examples of these surprise attacks. Most notably they
include Pearl Harbor, Kasserine Pass (North Africa), and the Battle of the
Bulge. During the Korean campaigns, the U.S. military was surprised at
the outbreak of the war and again when China entered on the side of the
North Koreans. Vietnam gave us the Tet Offensive, followed by the col-
lapse of the Iron Curtain and Soviet Union. Such incidents, in addition
xiii
Preface
to the events of 9/11, have produced an outcry that have led to numerous
studies to determine “what went wrong.” Government hearings, think-
tank studies, and independent researchers have offered their proposals
and advice on how to fix the intelligence community (IC).
More often than not, the prescribed answers have been to throw more
money and resources at the problem. However, subject matter experts
believe the major reason for the failure of analysis more likely lies with
faulty analytical thinking. This book seeks to provides analytical instruc-
tion, which addresses this faulty analytical thinking, while creating a pro-
cess where the analyst can develop, practice, and internalize a systematic
analytical process using real-world and hypothetical (though real-world–
related) problem sets.
Most topics covered within the book are germane to all fields (i.e.,
military, national, political, criminal, and business) of intelligence analy-
sis. However, certain chapters and sections, as well as most of the instruc-
tional examples, scenarios, exercises, and learning activities, provide
focus on (or can be applied to) the Homeland Security mission and its
associated problem sets. The Department of Homeland Security (DHS)
mission statement is as follows:
The vision of homeland security is to ensure a homeland that is safe,
secure, and resilient against terrorism and other hazards.
Three key concepts form the foundation of our national homeland
security strategy designed to achieve this vision:
• Security;
• Resilience; and
• Customs and Exchange.1
The training presentation methods and instructional approaches
embodied within the lesson material in this book are all products of
much thought, research, and discussion. Many tested and proven govern-
ment and commercial analytical training methodologies are utilized to
explain and demonstrate concepts and assist the student to internalize the
instructional materials.
Where possible, lesson materials contain actual unclassified Homeland
Security products, document formats, and situational scenarios. To simu-
late classified scenarios and examples for instructional purposes, hypo-
thetical instruments use unclassified Department of Homeland Security
xiv
Preface
xv
http://taylorandfrancis.com
ABOUT THE AUTHORS
Patrick McGlynn is a retired army intelligence officer. He has authored
multiple authoritative strategic-level intelligence reports addressing ter-
rorism, irregular warfare, weapons of mass destruction (WMD), and
information operations (IO). His military career has included assign-
ments with the U.S. Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA); and military and
civilian contractor tours in Afghanistan, Iraq, and other Middle East loca-
tions, where he served in various senior theater-level staff intelligence
positions. Since retiring from the military in 2007, McGlynn has authored
technical papers on targeting, articles for various intelligence professional
periodicals, and has developed analytical training courses for Counter-
Improvised Explosive Devices (C-IED); Counter Insurgency Operation
(COIN); and Analytical Tradecraft, Terrorism, Information Operations,
Collection Management, and Network Analysis. McGlynn has a mas-
ter’s in adult education and industrial technology from Georgia Southern
University.
xvii
http://taylorandfrancis.com
1
Defining Intelligence Analysis
INTRODUCTION
This course of instruction begins with defining intelligence analysis.
Chapter 1 guides the student through multiple definitions, using several
widely accepted examples as foundational information. First, by pointing
out the various divergent perspectives on intelligence analysis, then by
segregating the commonalities. To aid in instruction and minimize confu-
sion, the book provides a broad definition for intelligence analysis for use
through the remainder of the course. The intelligence analysis definition
discussion ends with the introduction of the intelligence analysis process.
The chapter then introduces, along with its origins, the purpose of intelli-
gence analysis. This book continues, discussing other intelligence analysis
processes and how they are used in business, product marketing, counter
terrorism, crime prevention, military applications, and so on. This book
does not, however, advocate for a single process, only that there should be
a formal process. The United States military process for intelligence anal-
ysis will be the initial intelligence analysis process explained during this
course of instruction. Later chapters cover the advantages, process struc-
ture, and applications of other (non-military–related) processes in more
detail. After briefly discussing the analysis process framework, the chap-
ter’s instructional materials identify and describe the analysis process
starting point: Requirements. The instruction describes the three analysis
requirement categories along with their subtypes, providing real-world
examples of each supporting category subtype.
1
INTELLIGENCE ANALYSIS FUNDAMENTALS
WHAT IS INTELLIGENCE?
What is intelligence? A basic definition of intelligence: The ability to obtain
and apply knowledge and skills. Sounds simple, so why is it perceived to
be so difficult and why are there so many varying definitions? Taking it a
step further, it becomes more apparent. Each individual (or organization)
has differing definitions of the terms abilities and apply. Later in the text
we will investigate deeper into what is meant by “abilities to obtain” and
how to better “apply” them.
2
Defining Intelligence Analysis
Origins
Intelligence (the ability to obtain and apply knowledge and skills) has
been around in its most basic form since prehistoric times. Humans have
been collecting and applying knowledge and skills since they began to
walk upright. The application of intelligence for military purposes soon
followed. The following is an early historical example of military intel-
ligence from ancient Egyptian times, specifically during the reign of
Rameses II at the Battle of Kadesh (roughly 1274 BC).
Rameses II had collected information from two captured enemy spies
on the size and disposition of Hittite enemy forces. Ramesses, having been
misled by the spies, thought the Hittite forces were many days’ march
away, and decided to make camp near Kadesh with the limited military
force accompanying him. In reality, the Hittite forces and their allies were
well within striking distance. When the Hittites attacked, Rameses was
surprised and outnumbered. Only the opportune arrival of the remain-
der of the Egyptian chariot forces and infantry on the battlefield turned
the tide of battle and saved Rameses from what would have been certain
defeat.
One could argue the Hittites had better intelligence than the
Egyptians. Perhaps this perception is partially correct. However, if
that were the actual case, the Hittites should have known about the
Egyptian reinforcements closing in on their position and picked a bet-
ter opportunity to attack. However, this example clearly does show
how critical intelligence properly applied can tip the scales in one’s
favor.
Differences
To further compound the subject, intelligence analysis is often further
classified or divided into:
• Terms of information or data sources (e.g., human, imagery,
signals, open source)
• Who the intelligence product end users/consumers are
(e.g., business intelligence, military intelligence, political
intelligence)
• Number of sources used in production (e.g., single source, all
source)
• Types (e.g., strategic, tactical, scientific/technical)
• Product usability aspects (e.g., actionable vs. nonactionable)
3
INTELLIGENCE ANALYSIS FUNDAMENTALS
Commonalities
Even though the definition is unclear, the mental processes for produc-
ing intelligence products are essentially identical. The major identifiable
distinctions among all of these intelligence production processes are who
performs the analysis and who the product end users are.
Most intelligence community (IC) organizations’ analysis process
descriptions contain two parts: (1) an analysis phase (separating or break-
ing up any whole into its parts for examination), and (2) a synthesis phase
(putting together of parts or elements to form a whole). Throughout the
IC, aspects other than analysis and synthesis may (or may not) be present
in the definition, but the essential elements of analysis and synthesis are
always resident.
For purposes of simplicity, this book uses the term intelligence analysis
as a process including all the activities from exploring the given question
or problem through providing the final intelligence products (in whatever
form they may take; e.g., assessments, imagery, signals reporting).
Setting aside the definition of intelligence analysis for the moment,
in this chapter we will limit the discussion to analytical process starting
points, which are no more than questions needing answers or unsolved
problems. Whether working for the military, a law enforcement organiza-
tion, news organization, commercial business, or as a Homeland Security
analyst, at the most fundamental level, this is the work of the intelligence
analyst.
4
Defining Intelligence Analysis
Descriptive Requirements
Starting with descriptive requirements, what do we mean when we say
descriptive? Descriptive intelligence requirements are factual or relational
in nature. Factual requirements are immutable and clear cut. In the jour-
nalism trade, the lead paragraph should contain certain “factual” items.
Journalists call those factual items the “five Ws.” Factual analysis require-
ments utilize four, of five, Ws. The five Ws are:
1. Who? (e.g., green force, red force, friendly, enemy)
2. What? (e.g., five soldiers, two tanks, three submarines)
3. Where? (e.g., crossing the border, leaving port)
4. When? (e.g., 06:30, Tuesday, 15 July)
5. Why? (Why will not be used because it is considered to be more
explanatory than factual)
Relational requirements describe associations, comparisons, connec-
tions, or involvement; for discussion purposes, an example of the poten-
tial relationship between red and green force tanks is as follows.
Example
While analyzing potential adversaries, a comparison of green and
red force tanks has determined they are fundamentally identical. The
reason for similarity stems from the fact that both countries have a
common heavy weapons supplier.
Explanatory Requirements
The next category of analysis requirements is explanatory. Explanatory
requirements may be interpretative, casual, or evidential. The interpretive
perspective looks to find meaning in the data (e.g., why are drug smug-
glers following a new route?). The casual viewpoint requires looking for
5
INTELLIGENCE ANALYSIS FUNDAMENTALS
the cause(s) (e.g., what is forcing drug smugglers to abandon their estab-
lished smuggling routes and take another?) Evidential-oriented require-
ments seek sensor data, imagery, or other reporting that prove or disprove
the hypothesis. The following is an example of such a hypothesis and
associated (in this case disproving evidence) imagery data (IMINT) and
human intelligence (HUMINT) reporting.
Example
Requirement Hypothesis Statement: South American drug traffickers
are using a particular coastal home to continuously process drugs for
later shipment to the United States.
Anticipatory Requirements
The final category of requirements is anticipatory. Two subcategories, pre-
dictive and speculative, further subdivide anticipatory analysis require-
ments to provide forecasts and gauge the probability of anticipated
events. Predictive types of analysis requirements seek the likelihood of a
given scenario or chain of events, whereas speculative requirements seek
to know what will happen in some given timespan into the future based
upon various assumptions. Shown below are examples of predictive and
speculative intelligence analysis requirements.
6
Defining Intelligence Analysis
CRIME ANALYSIS
Crime analysis is a law enforcement function that involves systematic
analysis for identifying and analyzing patterns and trends in crime and
disorder. Information analysis on patterns can help law enforcement
agencies deploy resources in a more effective manner and assist detec-
tives in identifying and apprehending suspects. Crime analysis also plays
a role in devising solutions to crime problems and formulating crime pre-
vention strategies. Quantitative social science data analysis methods are
part of the crime analysis process, though qualitative methods such as
examining police report narratives also play a role.3
Crime analysis has advantages and shortcomings when applied to
homeland security issues/threats. One advantage of criminal analysis
groups is that they are generally very familiar with criminal enterprises
and have high levels of institutional and street-level knowledge of many
known criminal organizations. Additionally, they can usually leverage
the profiles of known organizations to identify and exploit the unknown
criminal organizations.
Crime analysis is generally more reactive in nature, waiting for crimes
to be committed rather that proactively looking for criminal vulnerabili-
ties and proactively prosecuting crimes and disrupting criminal orga-
nizations and activities. Criminal analysts must always be aware of the
likelihood of successful prosecution. If their analysis is insufficient to
obtain a criminal conviction, they must continue to search for evidentiary
data to support their analysis. Further, crime analysis is often artificially
constrained by territorial borders and by limited and sometimes very
restricted data resources. See the example scenario.
7
INTELLIGENCE ANALYSIS FUNDAMENTALS
Example Scenario
A local law enforcement organization (LEO), located near the U.S.
southern border, arrests a drug smuggler for related crimes within
their jurisdiction. The criminal cooperates with interrogators and
gives a full confession. The smuggler’s confession points to criminal
accomplices and ties that reach far into South America and to mul-
tiple worldwide terror groups. The local LEO is ill-equipped, both
analytically and authoritatively, to follow the smuggler’s trail. The
local LEO’s authority to legally further pursue (often to even use
other intelligence resources) generally halt at the limits of their local
jurisdiction. Should the LEO gain cooperation of other county, state,
and federal law enforcement, the trail most definitely stops at the
international border.
8
Defining Intelligence Analysis
5 U.S. Department of Homeland Security, Mission Statement and History, 2015, http://www
.dhs.gov.
9
INTELLIGENCE ANALYSIS FUNDAMENTALS
waters over which the United States has jurisdiction, in order to enforce
federal laws.6
10
Other documents randomly have
different content
(Äänettömyys.)
(Sade lakkaa.)
KAIN. Mikä?
KAIN. Oi, oi! Tää huipun huippu on! — Jos vaan mahdollista.
LUSIFER (merkitsevästi). Ol' kerran vaimo, joka ensin uskoi, sitte
epäili, ja sen epäilyksen vuoksi vielä tänään maa ja luonto huokailee.
LUSIFER. Jaa?
KAIN. Ei mulla.
KAIN. Ei kai!
KAIN. Niin niin, niin se on! Nyt elon ongelma jo mulle selviää.
Ihminen näin itse ohjaa onnensa. Minne tahtoo, sinne menee: vettä,
maata, ilmaa myöten; sataa, jyrisee ja salamoi ja päivänsilmän
korkeuteen kohottaa. Kuin sanoisin, kuin nimittäisin: ihminen on…
LUSIFER. Ihminen on maailman…
LUSIFER. Amen!
LUSIFER. — että…?
KAIN. Se?
LUSIFER. Ehkei — sen sitte näkee. Vaan jos sentään — ja jos eivät
tyydy siihenkään, jos suorastansa vastaan iskevät?
KAIN. Kenen?
LUSIFER. Niin.
KAIN. Piru!
KAIN. Oikein, oikein! Juuri niin. Voitto, voitto! Tulen lipun valta on!
(Näky katoo.)
LUSIFER. Amen!
(Äänettömyys.)
Soittopa soimaan,
Nyt karkeloimaan!
Neito sorja,
Hemmen orja
Sankarin iloksi tanssimaan!
Taistoa elo tää —
Juhlina kukkapää!
Kas, kas, kun kimmeltää
Nestehet maljassa;
Helminä päilyy,
Kutsuen häilyy
Siskoset sarjassa.
Nauttios sankari!
Lyhyt on elosi!
Voittajan malja nyt juokaa!
(Tarjoovat maljat sankarille ja muille uroille, tanssivat sivuille.)
Nauttios sankari!
Lyhyt on elosi!
Voittajan malja nyt juokaa!
Kaihopa salaa
Rinnassa palaa;
Impi sorja,
Lemmen orja
Elonsa tanssihin kiiruhtaa!
Kevät on kerran vaan,
Siksipä riemuitaan!
Kas kuinka silmät nää
Tähtinä välkähtää;
Marjana poski,
Poikako koski?
Älä kysy enempää.
Lempiös, lempeä saa!
Hukkukoon taivas, maa!
Maljanne pohjahan juokaa!
(Juovat.)
LUSIFER. Amen!
Esirippu.
KOLMAS NÄYTÖS.
ENSIMÄINEN TOIMINTO.
ELOUHRI.
KAIN. Puhun! Minä, näet, en saa mitään ottamatta. Niin että jos
kerran kiittää pitää, tekisi mieleni kiittää (tekee voimakkaan liikkeen
nyrkkiin puristetuilla käsillä) — näitä kahta!
AABEL. Kain!
KAIN. Ne suitsuttavat uhria joka päivä. Se on minun uhrini — ja se
pitäisi riittää!
AABEL. Kain! Sinä et voi noin ajatella, minä tiedän sen. Se on vain
hetkellistä ajatuksen harhailua.
AABEL. Sepä juuri osottaa että todella kaipaat uhria. Uhri tuo aina
siunausta, aina mieltämme tyynnyttää ja kohottaa. Valitse alttari!
KAIN. Anna minun mennä, Aabel! Tai salli ainakin olla itse uhria
toimittamatta. Voinhan katsella, kun sinä uhraat, ja vaikkapa sitte
yhtyäkkin — jos voin.
KAIN (arvellen). Ei, ei! — No, jos välttämättä täytyy, niin valitse
sinä minun puolestani.
AABEL. Sinun puolestasi? Ei, Kain! Sitä en voisi koskaan tehdä —
se on sinun esikoisoikeutesi.
(Menee.)
(Äänettömyys.)
(Äänettömyys.)
(Menee syrjään.)
LUSIFER. Niin, tuo vanha laulu muistaos: kaikki, kaikki lahjaa on!
MIKAEL. Kain!
(Äänettömyys.)
AABEL. Et tarvitse —?
LUSIFER. Välähdä!
AABEL. Niinkö —?
(Äänettömyys.)
(Menee.)
MIKAEL. Jätä uhri tällä kertaa — olet liian kiihtynyt. Tai jos teet, se
nöyrin mielin tee —
KAIN. Min' en tätä kestä — en, en! Jätän kaikki ja juoksen pois.
KAIN. — Jos, niinkuin meille kerrottu on, sinä olet kaiken luoja,
niin sinä olet totisesti suuri, sillä sinä olet maan ja taivaan
suurenmoisesti suunnitellut ja sinun käsialasi ovat moninaiset ja
ihmeelliset —
KAIN. — Minä kiitän sinua, kiitän siitä ettet tehnyt itse kaikkea
valmiiksi, vaan jätit jotain ihmisellekin. Minä kiitän sinua että annoit
hänelle älynlahjan, jolla hän voi luomakunnan valtansa alle alistaa, ja
minä kiitän niistä —
(Vaipuu rukoukseen.)
KAIN. Minä tiesin sen, minä tiesin sen! Ne eivät sovi yhteen — ja
hän ei päästä irti. Mutta minä tahdon! Nyt — juuri — tällä hetkellä —
AABEL (nousten). Kain, Kain! Mitä sinä teet? Älä koske alttariin, se
on Herralle pyhitetty!
LUSIFER. Oikein!
MIKAEL. Kain!
AABEL (käy Kainiin päin ojennetuin käsin, aikoen häntä hillitä). Älä
jatka! Jehovan nimessä asetun tätä pyhän häväistystä vastaan!
AABEL. En askeltakaan!
Väliverho.
TOINEN TOIMINTA.
UKKOS-ILMA.
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