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A Whistle Stop Tour of Statistics Everitt Digital Instant
Download
Author(s): Everitt, Brian S
ISBN(s): 9781439877494, 1439877491
Edition: Online-Ausg
File Details: PDF, 2.63 MB
Year: 2011
Language: english
Statistics
Features
• Presents an accessible reference to the key concepts in
probability and statistics
• Introduces each concept through bite-size descriptions and
presents interesting real-world examples
• Includes lots of diagrams and graphs to clarify and illustrate
topics
• Provides a concise summary of ten major areas of statistics
including survival analysis and the analysis of longitudinal data
Written by Brian Everitt, the author of over 60 statistical texts, the book
shows how statistics can be applied in the real world, with interesting
examples and plenty of diagrams and graphs to illustrate concepts.
Brian S. Everitt
Everitt
K13590
This book contains information obtained from authentic and highly regarded sources. Rea-
sonable efforts have been made to publish reliable data and information, but the author and
publisher cannot assume responsibility for the validity of all materials or the consequences
of their use. The authors and publishers have attempted to trace the copyright holders of all
material reproduced in this publication and apologize to copyright holders if permission to
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edged please write and let us know so we may rectify in any future reprint.
Except as permitted under U.S. Copyright Law, no part of this book may be reprinted, repro-
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arranged.
Preface xi
2 Probability 19
2.1 Probability 19
2.2 Odds and Odds Ratios 21
2.3 Permutations and Combinations 22
2.4 Conditional Probabilities and Bayes’ Theorem 24
2.5 Random Variables, Probability Distributions and
Probability Density Functions 26
2.5.1 Random Variable 26
2.5.2 Probability Distribution 26
2.5.3 Probability Density Function 28
2.6 Expected Value and Moments 31
2.7 Moment-Generating Function 36
2.8 Summary 39
Suggested Reading 41
vii
3 Estimation 43
3.1 Point Estimation 43
3.2 Sampling Distribution of the Mean and the Central
Limit Theorem 44
3.3 Estimation by the Method of Moments 46
3.4 Estimation by Maximum Likelihood 48
3.5 Choosing Between Estimators 50
3.6 Sampling Distributions: Student’s t, Chi-Square
and Fisher’s F 51
3.7 Interval Estimation, Confidence Intervals 54
3.8 Summary 57
Suggested Reading 58
4 Inference 59
4.1 Inference and Hypotheses 59
4.2 Significance Tests, Type I and Type II Errors, Power and
the z-Test 60
4.3 Power and Sample Size 64
4.4 Student’s t-Tests 66
4.5 The Chi-Square Goodness-of-Fit Test 72
4.6 Nonparametric Tests 75
4.7 Testing the Population Correlation Coefficient 76
4.8 Tests on Categorical Variables 78
4.9 The Bootstrap 84
4.10 Significance Tests and Confidence Intervals 86
4.11 Frequentist and Bayesian Inference 87
4.12 Summary 89
Suggested Reading 92
Index 193
xi
Nearly all statistical analysis is based on the principle that one collects
data on the members in the sample and uses this information to make some
inferences about the population of interest. Samples are needed because it is
rarely possible to study the whole population. The relation between sample
and population is subject to uncertainty and we use probability concepts to
quantify this uncertainty (see Chapters 2, 3 and 4).
The different types of measurement scales may require the application of dif-
ferent types of statistical methods for valid conclusions to be made.
ExamPlE 1.1
Eye colour collected on a sample of 22,361 children in Aberdeen,
Scotland. Eye colour is a categorical variable. How can we usefully tabu-
late the data?
Solution
Simply count the number of children in each category of the eye colour
variable:
EyE colour
BluE lIght MEdIuM dark
Count of 2978 6697 7511 5175
children
Percentages 13.3 29.9 33.6 23.1
NB: If only percentages are given, the size of the sample
on which they are based must also be quoted.
ExamPlE 1.2
The starting positions of a sample of 144 winners of eight-horse horse
races on circular tracks were recorded where starting position is num-
bered 1 to 8 with position 1 being closest to the rail on the inside of the
track. So the original data consisted of a series of 144 numbers from 1 to
8, i.e., 1,1,3,2,4,......4,3,8. What type of variable is starting position and
how can the data be tabulated to make them more transparent?
Solution
If the starting positions are equally spaced out from the fence, then start-
ing position is an interval variable but one that is discrete rather than
continuous. If the starting positions are not equally spaced out from the
fence then the variable is ordinal only. To tabulate the data construct a
table giving the number of winners in each starting position.
startINg PosItIoN
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
Number 29 19 18 25 17 10 15 11
of wins
ExamPlE 1.3
The heights in millimetres of a sample of 169 men have been collected.
What is a useful way of tabulating them?
Solution
Here we can count the number (frequency) of men falling into each of
a number of intervals for height to give a frequency distribution table.
class
INtErval FrEquENcy
1550–1599 5
1600–1649 12
1650–1699 36
1700–1749 55
1750–1799 35
1800–1849 16
1850–1899 9
1900–1949 1
30
25
Percentage (n = 22,361)
20
15
10
0
Blue Light Medium Dark
Eye Colour
Light
Blue
Medium
Dark
Starting position 8
Starting position 7
Starting position 6
Starting position 5
Starting position 4
Starting position 3
Starting position 2
Starting position 1
10 15 20 25
Frequency of Winners
Crane drivers
Woodworkers
Leather
Electrical
Textile
Printing
Sales
Farmers
Clerical
Managers
Professional
50 60 70 80 90 100 110
SMR
fIGuRE 1.4 Dotplot of standardized mortality rates (SMR) for lung cancer in
several occupational groups.
60
50
40
Frequency
30
20
10
0
1550–1599 1600–1649 1650–1699 1700–1749 1750–1799 1800–1849 1850–1899 1900–1949
Height (mm)
The application of a viper’s head, even if it be not the one that has
inflicted the wound, is of infinite utility as a remedy. It is highly
advantageous, too, to hold the viper that inflicted the injury on the
end of a stick, over the steam of boiling water, for it will quite
undo2573 the mischief, they say. The ashes, also, of the viper, are
considered very useful, employed as a liniment for the wound.
According to what Nigidius tells us, serpents are compelled, by a sort
of natural instinct, to return to the person who has been stung by
them. The people of Scythia split the viper’s head between the ears,
in order to extract a small stone,2574 which it swallows in its alarm,
they say: others, again, use the head entire.
From the viper are prepared those tablets which are known as
“theriaci”2575 to the Greeks: for this purpose the animal is cut away
three fingers’ length from both the head and the tail, after which the
intestines are removed and the livid vein adhering to the back-bone.
The rest of the body is then boiled in a shallow pan, in water
seasoned with dill, and the bones are taken out, and fine wheaten
flour added; after which the preparation is made up into tablets,2576
which are dried in the shade and are employed as an ingredient in
numerous medicaments. I should remark, however, that this
preparation, it would appear, can only be made from the viper. Some
persons, after cleansing the viper in manner above described, boil
down the fat, with one sextarius of olive oil, to one half. Of this
preparation, when needed, three drops are added to some oil, with
which mixture the body is rubbed, to repel the approach of all kinds
of noxious animals.
CHAP. 22.—REMEDIES DERIVED FROM THE OTHER SERPENTS.
The flesh of cocks and capons, applied warm the moment it has
been plucked from the bones, neutralizes the venom of serpents;
and the brains, taken in wine, are productive of a similar effect. The
people of Parthia, however, prefer applying a hen’s brains to the
wound. Poultry broth, too, is highly celebrated as a cure, and is
found marvellously useful in many other cases. Panthers and lions
will never touch persons who have been rubbed with it, more
particularly if it has been flavoured with garlic. The broth that is
made of an old cock is more relaxing to the bowels; it is very good
also for chronic fevers, numbness of the limbs, cold shiverings and
maladies of the joints, pains also in the head, defluxions of the eyes,
flatulency, sickness at stomach, incipient tenesmus, liver complaints,
diseases of the kidneys, affections of the bladder, indigestion, and
asthma. Hence there are several recipes for preparing this broth; it
being most efficacious when boiled up with sea-cabbage,2586 salted
tunny,2587 capers, parsley, the plant mercurialis,2588
polypodium,2589 or dill. The best plan, however, is to boil the cock or
capon with the plants above-mentioned in three congii of water,
down to three semi-sextarii; after which it should be left to cool in
the open air, and given at the proper moment, just after an emetic
has been administered.
And here I must not omit to mention one marvellous fact, even
though it bears no reference to medicine: if the flesh of poultry is
mingled with gold2590 in a state of fusion, it will absorb the metal
and consume it, thus showing that it acts as a poison upon gold. If
young twigs are made up into a collar and put round a cock’s neck,
it will never crow.
CHAP. 26.—REMEDIES DERIVED FROM OTHER BIRDS.
The stellio, in its turn, is said to have the greatest antipathy to the
scorpion;2608 so much so indeed, that the very sight of it strikes
terror in that reptile, and a torpor attended with cold sweats; hence
it is that this lizard is left to putrefy in oil, as a liniment for injuries
inflicted by the scorpion. Some persons boil down the oil with
litharge, and make a sort of plaster of it to apply to the wound. The
Greeks give the name of “colotes” to this lizard, as also
“ascalabotes,” and “galeotes:” it is never2609 found in Italy, and is
covered with small spots, utters a shrill, piercing noise, and lives on
food; characteristics, all of them, foreign to the stellio of Italy.
CHAP. 29.—REMEDIES DERIVED FROM VARIOUS INSECTS.
A good remedy for head-ache are the heads taken from the snails
which are found without2635 shells, and in an imperfect state. In
these heads there is found a hard stony substance, about as large as
a common pebble: on being extracted from the snail, it is attached
to the patient, the smaller snails being pounded and applied to the
forehead. Wool-grease, too, is used for a similar purpose; the bones
of a vulture’s head, worn as an amulet; or the brains of that bird,
mixed with oil and cedar resin, and applied to the head and
introduced into the nostrils. The brains of a crow or owlet, are boiled
and taken with the food: or a cock is put into a coop, and kept
without food a day and a night, the patient submitting to a similar
abstinence, and attaching to his head some feathers plucked from
the neck or the comb of the fowl. The ashes, too, of a weasel are
applied in the form of a liniment; a twig is taken from a kite’s nest,
and laid beneath the patient’s pillow; or a mouse’s skin is burnt, and
the ashes applied with vinegar: sometimes, also, the small bone is
extracted from the head of a snail that has been found between two
cart ruts, and after being passed through a gold ring, with a piece of
ivory, is attached to the patient in a piece of dog’s skin; a remedy
well known to most persons, and always used with success.2636
For fractures of the cranium, cobwebs are applied, with oil and
vinegar; the application never coming away till a cure has been
effected. Cobwebs are good, too, for stopping the bleeding of
wounds2637 made in shaving. Discharges of blood from the brain are
arrested by applying the blood of a goose or duck, or the grease of
those birds with oil of roses. The head of a snail cut off with a reed,
while feeding in the morning, at full moon more particularly, is
attached to the head in a linen cloth, with an old thrum, for the cure
of head-ache; or else a liniment is made of it, and applied with white
wax to the forehead. Dogs’ hairs are worn also, attached to the
forehead in a cloth.
CHAP. 37.—REMEDIES FOR AFFECTIONS OF THE EYELIDS.
A crow’s brains, taken with the food, they say, will make the
eyelashes grow; or else wool-grease, applied with warmed myrrh, by
the aid of a fine probe. A similar result is promised by using the
following preparation: burnt flies and ashes of mouse-dung are
mixed in equal quantities, to the amount of half a denarius in the
whole; two sixths of a denarius of antimony are then added, and the
mixture is applied with wool-grease. For the same purpose, also, the
young ones of a mouse are beaten up, in old wine, to the
consistency of the strengthening preparations known as “acopa.”2638
When eyelashes are plucked out that are productive of
inconvenience, they are prevented from growing again by using a
hedge-hog’s gall; the liquid portion, also, of a spotted lizard’s eggs;
the ashes of a burnt salamander; the gall of a green lizard, mixed
with white wine, and left to thicken to the consistency of honey in a
copper vessel in the sun; the ashes of a swallow’s young, mixed with
the milky juice of tithymalos;2639 or else the slime of snails.
CHAP. 38.—REMEDIES FOR DISEASES OF THE EYES.
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