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Machine Learning with Spark and Python Essential
Techniques for Predictive Analytics 2nd Edition Michael
Bowles Digital Instant Download
Author(s): Michael Bowles
ISBN(s): 9781119561934, 1119561930
Edition: 2nd
File Details: PDF, 7.37 MB
Year: 2020
Language: english
Machine Learning with
Spark™ and Python®
Machine Learning with
Spark™ and Python®
Essential Techniques for
Predictive Analytics

Second Edition

Michael Bowles
Machine Learning with Spark™ and Python®: Essential Techniques for Predictive Analytics, Second Edition

Published by
John Wiley & Sons, Inc.
10475 Crosspoint Boulevard
Indianapolis, IN 46256
www.wiley.com

Copyright © 2020 by John Wiley & Sons, Inc., Indianapolis, Indiana

Published simultaneously in Canada

ISBN: 978‐1‐119‐56193‐4
ISBN: 978‐1‐119‐56201‐6 (ebk)
ISBN: 978‐1‐119‐56195‐8 (ebk)

Manufactured in the United States of America

No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system or transmitted in any form or
by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording, scanning or otherwise, except as permitted
under Sections 107 or 108 of the 1976 United States Copyright Act, without either the prior written permission
of the Publisher, or authorization through payment of the appropriate per‐copy fee to the Copyright Clear-
ance Center, 222 Rosewood Drive, Danvers, MA 01923, (978) 750‐8400, fax (978) 646‐8600. Requests to the
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Trademarks: Wiley and the Wiley logo are trademarks or registered trademarks of John Wiley & Sons, Inc.
and/or its affiliates, in the United States and other countries, and may not be used without written permis-
sion. Spark is a trademark of the Apache Software Foundation, Inc. Python is a registered trademark of the
Python Software Foundation. All other trademarks are the property of their respective owners. John Wiley &
Sons, Inc. is not associated with any product or vendor mentioned in this book.
 I dedicate this book to my expanding family of children and grandchildren, Scott,
Seth, Cayley, Rees, and Lia. Being included in their lives is a constant source of joy for
me. I hope it makes them smile to see their names in print. I also dedicate it to my
close friend Dave, whose friendship remains steadfast in spite of my best efforts.
I hope this makes him smile too.

Mike Bowles, Silicon Valley 2019

 About the Author

Dr. Michael Bowles (Mike) holds bachelor’s and master’s degrees in mechanical
engineering, an ScD in instrumentation, and an MBA. He has worked in aca-
demia, technology, and business. Mike currently works with companies where
artificial intelligence or machine learning are integral to success. He serves var-
iously as part of the management team, a consultant, or advisor. He also teaches
machine learning courses at UC Berkeley and Hacker Dojo, a co-working space
and startup incubator in Mountain View, CA.
Mike was born in Oklahoma and took his bachelor’s and master’s degrees
there, then after a stint in Southeast Asia went to Cambridge for ScD and C.
Stark Draper Chair at MIT after graduation. Mike left Boston to work on com-
munications satellites at Hughes Aircraft Company in Southern California, and
then after completing an MBA at UCLA moved to the San Francisco Bay Area
to take roles as founder and CEO of two successful venture-backed startups.
Mike remains actively involved in technical and startup-related work. Recent
projects include the use of machine learning in industrial inspection and auto-
mation, financial prediction, predicting biological outcomes on the basis of
molecular graph structures, and financial risk estimation. He has participated
in due diligence work on companies in the artificial intelligence and machine
learning arenas. Mike can be reached through mbowles.com.

vii
 About the Technical Editor

James York-Winegar is an Infrastructure Principal with Accenture Enkitec

Group. James helps companies of all sizes from startups to enterprises with their
data lifecycle by helping them bridge the gap between systems management
and data science. He started his career in physics, where he did large-scale
quantum chemistry simulations on supercomputers, and went into technology.
He holds a master’s in Data Science from Berkeley.

ix
 Acknowledgments

I’d like to acknowledge the splendid support that people at Wiley have offered
during the course of writing this book and making the revisions for this second
edition. It began with Robert Elliot, the acquisitions editor who first contacted me
about writing a book—very easy to work with. Tom Dinse has done a splendid
job editing this second edition. He’s been responsive, thorough, flexible, and
completely professional, as I’ve come to expect from Wiley. I thank you.
I’d also like to acknowledge the enormous comfort that comes from having
such a quick, capable computer scientist as James Winegar doing the technical
editing on the book. James has brought a more consistent style and has made
a number of improvements that will make the code that comes along with the
book easier to use and understand. Thank you for that.
The example problems used in the book come from the University of California
at Irvine’s data repository. UCI does the machine learning community a great
service by gathering these data sets, curating them, and making them freely
available. The reference for this material is:
Bache, K. & Lichman, M. (2013). UCI Machine Learning Repository (http://
archive.ics.uci.edu/ml). Irvine, CA: University of California, School of
Information and Computer Science.

xi
 Contents at a Glance

Introductionxxi
Chapter 1 The Two Essential Algorithms for Making Predictions 1
Chapter 2 Understand the Problem by Understanding the Data 23
Chapter 3 Predictive Model Building: Balancing Performance,
Complexity, and Big Data 77
Chapter 4 Penalized Linear Regression 129
Chapter 5 Building Predictive Models Using Penalized Linear Methods 169
Chapter 6 Ensemble Methods 221
Chapter 7 Building Ensemble Models with Python 265
Index 329

xiii
 Contents

Introductionxxi
Chapter 1 The Two Essential Algorithms for Making Predictions 1
Why Are These Two Algorithms So Useful? 2
What Are Penalized Regression Methods? 7
What Are Ensemble Methods? 9
How to Decide Which Algorithm to Use 11
The Process Steps for Building a Predictive Model 13
Framing a Machine Learning Problem 15
Feature Extraction and Feature Engineering 17
Determining Performance of a Trained Model 18
Chapter Contents and Dependencies 18
Summary20
Chapter 2 Understand the Problem by Understanding the Data 23
The Anatomy of a New Problem 24
Different Types of Attributes and Labels Drive
Modeling Choices 26
Things to Notice about Your New Data Set 27
Classification Problems: Detecting Unexploded
Mines Using Sonar 28
Physical Characteristics of the Rocks Versus Mines Data Set 29
Statistical Summaries of the Rocks Versus Mines Data Set 32
Visualization of Outliers Using a Quantile-Quantile Plot 34
Statistical Characterization of Categorical Attributes 35
How to Use Python Pandas to Summarize the Rocks
Versus Mines Data Set 36
Visualizing Properties of the Rocks Versus Mines Data Set 39
Visualizing with Parallel Coordinates Plots 39
Visualizing Interrelationships between Attributes and Labels 41

xv
xvi Contents

Visualizing Attribute and Label Correlations Using a Heat Map 48

Summarizing the Process for Understanding the Rocks Versus
Mines Data Set 50
Real-Valued Predictions with Factor Variables: How Old Is
Your Abalone? 50
Parallel Coordinates for Regression Problems—Visualize
Variable Relationships for the Abalone Problem 55
How to Use a Correlation Heat Map for Regression—
Visualize Pair-Wise Correlations for the Abalone Problem 59
Real-Valued Predictions Using Real-Valued Attributes:
Calculate How Your Wine Tastes 61
Multiclass Classification Problem: What Type of Glass Is That? 67
Using PySpark to Understand Large Data Sets 72
Summary75
Chapter 3 Predictive Model Building: Balancing Performance,
Complexity, and Big Data 77
The Basic Problem: Understanding Function Approximation 78
Working with Training Data 79
Assessing Performance of Predictive Models 81
Factors Driving Algorithm Choices and
Performance—Complexity and Data 82
Contrast between a Simple Problem and a Complex Problem 82
Contrast between a Simple Model and a Complex Model 85
Factors Driving Predictive Algorithm Performance 89
Choosing an Algorithm: Linear or Nonlinear? 90
Measuring the Performance of Predictive Models 91
Performance Measures for Different Types of Problems 91
Simulating Performance of Deployed Models 105
Achieving Harmony between Model and Data 107
Choosing a Model to Balance Problem Complexity, Model
Complexity, and Data Set Size 107
Using Forward Stepwise Regression to Control Overfitting 109
Evaluating and Understanding Your Predictive Model 114
Control Overfitting by Penalizing Regression
Coefficients—Ridge Regression 116
Using PySpark for Training Penalized Regression Models on
Extremely Large Data Sets 124
Summary127
Chapter 4 Penalized Linear Regression 129
Why Penalized Linear Regression Methods Are So Useful 130
Extremely Fast Coefficient Estimation 130
Variable Importance Information 131
Extremely Fast Evaluation When Deployed 131
Reliable Performance 131
Sparse Solutions 132
 Contents xvii

Problem May Require Linear Model 132

When to Use Ensemble Methods 132
Penalized Linear Regression: Regulating Linear Regression
for Optimum Performance 132
Training Linear Models: Minimizing Errors and More 135
Adding a Coefficient Penalty to the OLS Formulation 136
Other Useful Coefficient Penalties—Manhattan and
ElasticNet137
Why Lasso Penalty Leads to Sparse Coefficient Vectors 138
ElasticNet Penalty Includes Both Lasso and Ridge 140
Solving the Penalized Linear Regression Problem 141
Understanding Least Angle Regression and Its
Relationship to Forward Stepwise Regression 141
How LARS Generates Hundreds of Models of Varying
Complexity145
Choosing the Best Model from the Hundreds
LARS Generates 147
Using Glmnet: Very Fast and Very General 152
Comparison of the Mechanics of Glmnet and
LARS Algorithms 153
Initializing and Iterating the Glmnet Algorithm 153
Extension of Linear Regression to Classification Problems 157
Solving Classification Problems with Penalized Regression 157
Working with Classification Problems Having More
Than Two Outcomes 161
Understanding Basis Expansion: Using Linear
Methods on Nonlinear Problems 161
Incorporating Non-Numeric Attributes into Linear Methods 163
Summary 166
Chapter 5 Building Predictive Models Using Penalized Linear Methods 169
Python Packages for Penalized Linear Regression 170
Multivariable Regression: Predicting Wine Taste 171
Building and Testing a Model to Predict Wine Taste 172
Training on the Whole Data Set before Deployment 175
Basis Expansion: Improving Performance by
Creating New Variables from Old Ones 179
Binary Classification: Using Penalized Linear
Regression to Detect Unexploded Mines 182
Build a Rocks Versus Mines Classifier for Deployment 191
Multiclass Classification: Classifying Crime Scene
Glass Samples 200
Linear Regression and Classification Using PySpark 203
Using PySpark to Predict Wine Taste 204
Logistic Regression with PySpark: Rocks Versus Mines 208
Incorporating Categorical Variables in a
PySpark Model: Predicting Abalone Rings 213
xviii Contents

Multiclass Logistic Regression with Meta

Parameter Optimization 217
Summary219
Chapter 6 Ensemble Methods 221
Binary Decision Trees 222
How a Binary Decision Tree Generates Predictions 224
How to Train a Binary Decision Tree 225
Tree Training Equals Split Point Selection 227
How Split Point Selection Affects Predictions 228
Algorithm for Selecting Split Points 229
Multivariable Tree Training—Which Attribute to Split? 229
Recursive Splitting for More Tree Depth 230
Overfitting Binary Trees 231
Measuring Overfit with Binary Trees 231
Balancing Binary Tree Complexity for Best Performance 232
Modifications for Classification and Categorical Features 235
Bootstrap Aggregation: “Bagging” 235
How Does the Bagging Algorithm Work? 236
Bagging Performance—Bias Versus Variance 239
How Bagging Behaves on Multivariable Problem 241
Bagging Needs Tree Depth for Performance 245
Summary of Bagging 246
Gradient Boosting 246
Basic Principle of Gradient Boosting Algorithm 246
Parameter Settings for Gradient Boosting 249
How Gradient Boosting Iterates toward a Predictive Model 249
Getting the Best Performance from Gradient Boosting 250
Gradient Boosting on a Multivariable Problem 253
Summary for Gradient Boosting 256
Random Forests 256
Random Forests: Bagging Plus Random Attribute Subsets 259
Random Forests Performance Drivers 260
Random Forests Summary 261
Summary262
Chapter 7 Building Ensemble Models with Python 265
Solving Regression Problems with Python Ensemble
Packages265
Using Gradient Boosting to Predict Wine Taste 266
Using the Class Constructor for
GradientBoostingRegressor266
Using GradientBoostingRegressor to Implement a
Regression Model 268
Assessing the Performance of a Gradient Boosting Model 271
Building a Random Forest Model to Predict Wine Taste 272
Constructing a RandomForestRegressor Object 273
 Contents xix

Modeling Wine Taste with RandomForestRegressor 275

Visualizing the Performance of a Random Forest
Regression Model 279
Incorporating Non-Numeric Attributes in Python
Ensemble Models 279
Coding the Sex of Abalone for Gradient Boosting
Regression in Python 280
Assessing Performance and the Importance of Coded
Variables with Gradient Boosting 282
Coding the Sex of Abalone for Input to Random Forest
Regression in Python 284
Assessing Performance and the Importance of
Coded Variables 287
Solving Binary Classification Problems with Python
Ensemble Methods 288
Detecting Unexploded Mines with Python
Gradient Boosting 288
Determining the Performance of a Gradient
Boosting Classifier 291
Detecting Unexploded Mines with Python Random Forest 292
Constructing a Random Forest Model to Detect
Unexploded Mines 294
Determining the Performance of a Random Forest Classifier 298
Solving Multiclass Classification Problems with
Python Ensemble Methods 300
Dealing with Class Imbalances 301
Classifying Glass Using Gradient Boosting 301
Determining the Performance of the Gradient Boosting
Model on Glass Classification 306
Classifying Glass with Random Forests 307
Determining the Performance of the Random Forest
Model on Glass Classification 310
Solving Regression Problems with PySpark Ensemble
Packages311
Predicting Wine Taste with PySpark Ensemble Methods 312
Predicting Abalone Age with PySpark Ensemble Methods 317
Distinguishing Mines from Rocks with PySpark
Ensemble Methods 321
Identifying Glass Types with PySpark Ensemble Methods 325
Summary327
Index329
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