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 CONTENTS
Preface xvi

1 Introduction to Business Analytics 1

1-1 Introduction 3
1-2 Overview of the Book 4
1-2a The Methods 4
1-2b The Software 6
1-3 Introduction to Spreadsheet Modeling 8
1-3a Basic Spreadsheet Modeling: Concepts and Best Practices 9
1-3b Cost Projections 12
1-3c Breakeven Analysis 15
1-3d Ordering with Quantity Discounts and Demand Uncertainty 20
1-3e Estimating the Relationship between Price and Demand 24
1-3f Decisions Involving the Time Value of Money 29
1-4 Conclusion 33

PART 1 Data Analysis 37

2 Describing the Distribution of a Variable 38
2-1 Introduction 39
2-2 Basic Concepts 41
2-2a Populations and Samples 41
2-2b Data Sets, Variables, and Observations 41
2-2c Data Types 42
2-3 Summarizing Categorical Variables 45
2-4 Summarizing Numeric Variables 49
2-4a Numeric Summary Measures 49
2-4b Charts for Numeric Variables 57
2-5 Time Series Data 62
2-6 Outliers and Missing Values 69
2-7 Excel Tables for Filtering, Sorting, and Summarizing 71
2-8 Conclusion 77
Appendix: Introduction to StatTools 83

3 Finding Relationships among Variables 84

3-1 Introduction 85
3-2 Relationships among Categorical Variables 86

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 CONTENTS vii

3-3 Relationships among Categorical Variables

and a Numeric Variable 89
3-4 Relationships among Numeric Variables 96
3-4a Scatterplots 96
3-4b Correlation and Covariance 101
3-5 Pivot Tables 106
3-6 Conclusion 126
Appendix: Using StatTools to Find Relationships 131

4 Business Intelligence (BI) Tools for Data Analysis 132

4-1 Introduction 133
4-2 Importing Data into Excel with Power Query 134
4-2a Introduction to Relational Databases 134
4-2b Excel’s Data Model 139
4-2c Creating and Editing Queries 146
4-3 Data Analysis with Power Pivot 152
4-3a Basing Pivot Tables on a Data Model 154
4-3b Calculated Columns, Measures, and the DAX Language 154
4-4 Data Visualization with Tableau Public 162
4-5 Data Cleansing 172
4-6 Conclusion 178

PART 2 Probability and Decision Making under Uncertainty 183

5 Probability and Probability Distributions 184
5-1 Introduction 185
5-2 Probability Essentials 186
5-2a Rule of Complements 187
5-2b Addition Rule 187
5-2c Conditional Probability and the Multiplication Rule 188
5-2d Probabilistic Independence 190
5-2e Equally Likely Events 191
5-2f Subjective Versus Objective Probabilities 192
5-3 Probability Distribution of a Random Variable 194
5-3a Summary Measures of a Probability Distribution 195
5-3b Conditional Mean and Variance 198
5-4 The Normal Distribution 200
5-4a Continuous Distributions and Density Functions 200
5-4b The Normal Density Function 201
5-4c Standardizing: Z-Values 202
5-4d Normal Tables and Z-Values 204

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viii CONTENTS

5-4e Normal Calculations in Excel 205

5-4f Empirical Rules Revisited 208
5-4g Weighted Sums of Normal Random Variables 208
5-4h Normal Distribution Examples 209
5-5 The Binomial Distribution 214
5-5a Mean and Standard Deviation of the Binomial Distribution 217
5-5b The Binomial Distribution in the Context of Sampling 217
5-5c The Normal Approximation to the Binomial 218
5-5d Binomial Distribution Examples 219
5-6 The Poisson and Exponential Distributions 226
5-6a The Poisson Distribution 227
5-6b The Exponential Distribution 229
5-7 Conclusion 231

6 Decision Making under Uncertainty 242

6-1 Introduction 243
6-2 Elements of Decision Analysis 244
6-3 EMV and Decision Trees 247
6-4 One-Stage Decision Problems 251
6-5 The PrecisionTree Add-In 254
6-6 Multistage Decision Problems 257
6.6a Bayes’ Rule 262
6-6b The Value of Information 267
6-6c Sensitivity Analysis 270
6-7 The Role of Risk Aversion 274
6-7a Utility Functions 275
6-7b Exponential Utility 275
6-7c Certainty Equivalents 278
6-7d Is Expected Utility Maximization Used? 279
6-8 Conclusion 280

PART 3 Statistical Inference 293

7 Sampling and Sampling Distributions 294
7-1 Introduction 295
7-2 Sampling Terminology 295
7-3 Methods for Selecting Random Samples 297
7-3a Simple Random Sampling 297
7-3b Systematic Sampling 301
7-3c Stratified Sampling 301

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 CONTENTS ix

7-3d Cluster Sampling 303

7-3e Multistage Sampling 303
7-4 Introduction to Estimation 305
7-4a Sources of Estimation Error 305
7-4b Key Terms in Sampling 306
7-4c Sampling Distribution of the Sample Mean 307
7-4d The Central Limit Theorem 312
7-4e Sample Size Selection 317
7-4f Summary of Key Ideas in Simple Random Sampling 318
7-5 Conclusion 320

8 Confidence Interval Estimation 323

8-1 Introduction 323
8-2 Sampling Distributions 325
8-2a The t Distribution 326
8-2b Other Sampling Distributions 327
8-3 Confidence Interval for a Mean 328
8-4 Confidence Interval for a Total 333
8-5 Confidence Interval for a Proportion 336
8-6 Confidence Interval for a Standard Deviation 340
8-7 Confidence Interval for the Difference between Means 343
8-7a Independent Samples 344
8-7b Paired Samples 346
8-8 Confidence Interval for the Difference between Proportions 348
8-9 Sample Size Selection 351
8-10 Conclusion 358

9 Hypothesis Testing 368

9-1 Introduction 369
9-2 Concepts in Hypothesis Testing 370
9-2a Null and Alternative Hypotheses 370
9-2b One-Tailed Versus Two-Tailed Tests 371
9-2c  Types of Errors 372
9-2d Significance Level and Rejection Region 372
9-2e Significance from p-values 373
9-2f Type II Errors and Power 375
9-2g Hypothesis Tests and Confidence Intervals 375
9-2h Practical Versus Statistical Significance 375
9-3 Hypothesis Tests for a Population Mean 376
9-4 Hypothesis Tests for Other Parameters 380

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x CONTENTS

9-4a Hypothesis Test for a Population Proportion 380

9-4b Hypothesis Tests for Difference between Population Means 382
9-4c Hypothesis Test for Equal Population Variances 388
9-4d Hypothesis Test for Difference between Population Proportions 388
9-5 Tests for Normality 395
9-6 Chi-Square Test for Independence 401
9-7 Conclusion 404

PART 4 Regression Analysis and Time Series Forecasting 411

10 Regression Analysis: Estimating Relationships 412
10-1 Introduction 413
10-2 Scatterplots: Graphing Relationships 415
10-3 Correlations: Indicators of Linear Relationships 422
10-4 Simple Linear Regression 424
10-4a Least Squares Estimation 424
10-4b Standard Error of Estimate 431
10-4c R-Square 432
10-5 Multiple Regression 435
10-5a Interpretation of Regression Coefficients 436
10-5b Interpretation of Standard Error of Estimate and R-Square 439
10-6 Modeling Possibilities 442
10-6a Dummy Variables 442
10-6b Interaction Variables 448
10-6c Nonlinear Transformations 452
10-7 Validation of the Fit 461
10-8 Conclusion 463

11 Regression Analysis: Statistical Inference 472

11-1 Introduction 473
11-2 The Statistical Model 474
11-3 Inferences About the Regression Coefficients 477
11-3a Sampling Distribution of the Regression Coefficients 478
11-3b Hypothesis Tests for the Regression Coefficients and p-Values 480
11-3c A Test for the Overall Fit: The ANOVA Table 481
11-4 Multicollinearity 485
11-5 Include/Exclude Decisions 489
11-6 Stepwise Regression 494
11-7 Outliers 499

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 CONTENTS xi

11-8 Violations of Regression Assumptions 504

11-8a Nonconstant Error Variance 504
11-8b Nonnormality of Residuals 504
11-8c Autocorrelated Residuals 505
11-9 Prediction 507
11-10 Conclusion 512

12 Time Series Analysis and Forecasting 523

12-1 Introduction 524
12-2 Forecasting Methods: An Overview 525
12-2a Extrapolation Models 525
12-2b Econometric Models 526
12-2c Combining Forecasts 526
12-2d Components of Time Series Data 527
12-2e Measures of Accuracy 529
12-3 Testing for Randomness 531
12-3a The Runs Test 534
12-3b Autocorrelation 535
12-4 Regression-Based Trend Models 539
12-4a Linear Trend 539
12-4b Exponential Trend 541
12-5 The Random Walk Model 544
12-6 Moving Averages Forecasts 547
12-7 Exponential Smoothing Forecasts 551
12-7a Simple Exponential Smoothing 552
12-7b Holt’s Model for Trend 556
12-8 Seasonal Models 560
12-8a Winters’ Exponential Smoothing Model 561
12-8b Deseasonalizing: The Ratio-to-Moving-Averages Method 564
12-8c Estimating Seasonality with Regression 565
12-9 Conclusion 569

PART 5 Optimization and Simulation Modeling 575

13 Introduction to Optimization Modeling 576
13-1 Introduction 577
13-2 Introduction to Optimization 577
13-3 A Two-Variable Product Mix Model 579

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xii CONTENTS

13-4 Sensitivity Analysis 590

13-4a Solver’s Sensitivity Report 590
13-4b SolverTable Add-In 593
13-4c A Comparison of Solver’s Sensitivity Report and SolverTable 599
13-5 Properties of Linear Models 600
13-6 Infeasibility and Unboundedness 602
13-7 A Larger Product Mix Model 604
13-8 A Multiperiod Production Model 612
13-9 A Comparison of Algebraic and Spreadsheet Models 619
13-10 A Decision Support System 620
13-11 Conclusion 622

14 Optimization Models 630

14-1 Introduction 631
14-2 Employee Scheduling Models 632
14-3 Blending Models 638
14-4 Logistics Models 644
14-4a Transportation Models 644
14-4b More General Logistics Models 651
14-5 Aggregate Planning Models 659
14-6 Financial Models 667
14-7 Integer Optimization Models 677
14-7a Capital Budgeting Models 678
14-7b Fixed-Cost Models 682
14-7c Set-Covering Models 689
14-8 Nonlinear Optimization Models 695
14-8a Difficult Issues in Nonlinear Optimization 695
14-8b Managerial Economics Models 696
14-8c Portfolio Optimization Models 700
14-9 Conclusion 708

15 Introduction to Simulation Modeling 717

15-1 Introduction 718
15-2 Probability Distributions for Input Variables 720
15-2a Types of Probability Distributions 721
15-2b Common Probability Distributions 724
15-2c Using @RISK to Explore Probability Distributions 728
15-3 Simulation and the Flaw of Averages 736
15-4 Simulation with Built-in Excel Tools 738

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 CONTENTS xiii

15-5 Simulation with @RISK 747

15-5a @RISK Features 748
15-5b Loading @RISK 748
15-5c @RISK Models with a Single Random Input 749
15-5d Some Limitations of @RISK 758
15-5e @RISK Models with Several Random Inputs 758
15-6 The Effects of Input Distributions on Results 763
15-6a Effect of the Shape of the Input Distribution(s) 763
15-6b Effect of Correlated Inputs 766
15-7 Conclusion 771

16 Simulation Models 779

16-1 Introduction 780
16-2 Operations Models 780
16-2a Bidding for Contracts 780
16-2b Warranty Costs 784
16-2c Drug Production with Uncertain Yield 789
16-3 Financial Models 794
16-3a Financial Planning Models 795
16-3b Cash Balance Models 799
16-3c Investment Models 803
16-4 Marketing Models 810
16-4a Customer Loyalty Models 810
16-4b Marketing and Sales Models 817
16-5 Simulating Games of Chance 823
16-5a Simulating the Game of Craps 823
16-5b Simulating the NCAA Basketball Tournament 825
16-6 Conclusion 828

PART 6 Advanced Data Analysis 837

17 Data Mining 838
17-1 Introduction 839
17-2 Classification Methods 840
17-2a Logistic Regression 841
17-2b Neural Networks 846
17-2c Naïve Bayes 851
17-2d Classification Trees 854
17-2e Measures of Classification Accuracy 855
17-2f Classification with Rare Events 857

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xiv CONTENTS

17-3 Clustering Methods 860

17-4 Conclusion 870

18 Analysis of Variance and Experimental Design (MindTap Reader only)

18-1 Introduction 18-2
18-2 One-Way ANOVA 18-5
18-2a The Equal-Means Test 18-5
18-2b Confidence Intervals for Differences Between Means 18-7
18-2c Using a Logarithmic Transformation 18-11
18-3 Using Regression to Perform ANOVA 18-15
18-4 The Multiple Comparison Problem 18-18
18-5 Two-Way ANOVA 18-22
18-5a Confidence Intervals for Contrasts 18-28
18-5b Assumptions of Two-Way ANOVA 18-30
18-6 More About Experimental Design 18-32
18-6a Randomization 18-32
18-6b Blocking 18-35
18-6c Incomplete Designs 18-38
18-7 Conclusion 18-40

19 Statistical Process Control (MindTap Reader only)

19-1 Introduction 19-2
19-2 Deming’s 14 Points 19-3
19-3 Introduction to Control Charts 19-6
19-4 Control Charts for Variables 19-8
19-4a Control Charts and Hypothesis Testing 19-13
19-4b Other Out-of-Control Indications 19-15
19-4c Rational Subsamples 19-16
19-4d Deming’s Funnel Experiment and Tampering 19-18
19-4e Control Charts in the Service Industry 19-22
19-5 Control Charts for Attributes 19-26
19-5a P Charts 19-26
19-5b Deming’s Red Bead Experiment 19-29
19-6 Process Capability 19-33
19-6a Process Capability Indexes 19-35
19-6b More on Motorola and 6-Sigma 19-40
19-7 Conclusion 19-43

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 CONTENTS xv

APPENDIX A: Quantitative Reporting (MindTap Reader only)

A-1 Introduction A-1
A-2 Suggestions for Good Quantitative Reporting A-2
A-2a Planning A-2
A-2b Developing a Report A-3
A-2c Be Clear A-4
A-2d Be Concise A-4
A-2e Be Precise A-5
A-3 Examples of Quantitative Reports A-6
A-4 Conclusion A-16

References 873

Index 875

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 PREFACE
With today’s technology, companies are able to ­collect tremendous amounts of data with relative ease. Indeed, many com-
panies now have more data than they can handle. However, before the data can be useful, they must be analyzed for trends,
patterns, and relationships. This book illustrates in a practical way a variety of methods, from simple to complex, to help you
analyze data sets and uncover important information. In many business contexts, data analysis is only the first step in the
solution of a problem. Acting on the solution and the information it provides to make good decisions is a critical next step.
Therefore, there is a heavy emphasis throughout this book on analytical methods that are useful in decision making. The meth-
ods vary considerably, but the objective is always the same—to equip you with ­decision-making tools that you can apply in
your ­business careers.
We recognize that the majority of students in this type of course are not majoring in a quantitative area. They are typically
business majors in finance, marketing, operations management, or some other business discipline who will need to analyze data
and make quantitative-based decisions in their jobs. We offer a hands-on, example-based approach and introduce fundamental
concepts as they are needed. Our vehicle is spreadsheet software—specifically, Microsoft Excel®. This is a package that most
students already know and will almost surely use in their careers. Our MBA students at Indiana University have been so turned
on by the required course that is based on this book that almost all of them (mostly finance and marketing majors) have taken
at least one of our follow-up elective courses in spreadsheet modeling. We are convinced that students see value in quantitative
analysis when the course is taught in a practical and example-based approach.

Rationale for Writing This Book

Business Analytics: Data Analysis and Decision Making is different from other textbooks written for statistics and management
science. Our rationale for writing this book is based on four fundamental objectives.
• Integrated coverage and applications. The book provides a unified approach to business-related problems by integrat-
ing methods and applications that have been traditionally taught in separate courses, specifically statistics and manage-
ment science.
• Practical in approach. The book emphasizes realistic business examples and the processes managers actually use to
analyze business ­problems. The emphasis is not on abstract theory or computational methods.
• Spreadsheet-based teaching. The book ­provides students with the skills to analyze business ­problems with tools they
have access to and will use in their careers. To this end, we have adopted Excel and commercial spreadsheet add-ins.
• Latest tools. This is not a static field. The software keeps changing, and even the mathematical algorithms behind the
software continue to evolve. Each edition of this book has presented the most recent tools in Excel and the accompanying
Excel add-ins, and the current edition is no exception.

Integrated Coverage and Applications

In the past, many business schools have offered a required statistics course, a required decision-making course, and a required
management science course—or some subset of these. The current trend, however, is to have only one required course that cov-
ers the basics of statistics, some regression analysis, some decision making under uncertainty, some linear programming, some
simulation, and some advanced data analysis ­methods. Essentially, faculty in the quantitative area get one opportunity to teach
all business students, so we attempt to cover a variety of useful quantitative methods. We are not necessarily arguing that this
trend is ideal, but rather that it is a reflection of the reality at our university and, we suspect, at many others. After several years
of teaching this course, we have found it to be a great opportunity to attract students to the subject and to more advanced study.
The book is also integrative in another important aspect. It not only integrates a number of analytical methods, but it also
applies them to a wide variety of business problems—that is, it analyzes realistic examples from many business disciplines. We
include examples, problems, and cases that deal with portfolio optimization, workforce scheduling, market share analysis, capital
budgeting, new product analysis, and many others.

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 PREFACE xvii

Practical in Approach
This book has been designed to be very example-based and practical. We strongly believe that students learn best by w ­ orking
through examples, and they appreciate the material most when the examples are realistic and interesting. Therefore, our
approach in the book differs in two important ways from many competitors. First, there is just enough conceptual development
to give students an understanding and appreciation for the issues raised in the examples. We often introduce important concepts,
such as standard deviation as a measure of variability, in the context of examples rather than discussing them in the abstract.
Our experience is that students gain greater intuition and understanding of the concepts and applications through this approach.
Second, we place virtually no emphasis on hand calculations. We believe it is more important for students to understand
why they are conducting an analysis and to interpret the results than to emphasize the tedious calculations associated with many
analytical techniques. Therefore, we illustrate how powerful software can be used to create graphical and numerical outputs
in a matter of seconds, freeing the rest of the time for in-depth interpretation of the results, sensitivity analysis, and alternative
modeling approaches.

Spreadsheet-based Teaching
We are strongly committed to teaching spreadsheet-based, example-driven courses, regardless of whether the basic area is data
analysis or management science. We have found tremendous enthusiasm for this approach, both from students and from ­faculty
around the world who have used our books. Students learn and remember more, and they appreciate the material more. In
addition, instructors typically enjoy teaching more, and they usually receive immediate reinforcement through better t­eaching
evaluations. We were among the first to move to spreadsheet-based teaching about two decades ago, and we have never regret-
ted the move.

What We Hope to Accomplish in This Book

Condensing the ideas in the previous paragraphs, we hope to:
• continue to make quantitative courses attractive to a wide audience by making these topics real, accessible, and
interesting;
• give students plenty of hands-on experience with real problems and challenge them to develop their intuition, logic, and
problem-solving skills;
• expose students to real problems in many ­business disciplines and show them how these problems can be analyzed with
quantitative methods; and
• develop spreadsheet skills, including ­experience with powerful spreadsheet add-ins, that add immediate value to stu-
dents’ other courses and for their future careers.

New in the Seventh Edition

There are several important changes in this edition.
• New introductory material on Excel: Chapter 1 now includes an introductory section on spreadsheet modeling. This
provides business examples for getting students up to speed in Excel and covers such Excel tools as IF and VLOOKUP
functions, data tables, goal seek, range names, and more.
• Reorganization of probability chapters: Chapter 4, Probability and Probability Distributions, and Chapter 5, Normal,
Binomial, Poisson, and Exponential Distributions, have been shortened slightly and combined into a single Chapter 5,
Probability and Probability Distributions. This created space for the new Chapter 4 discussed next.
• New material on “Power BI” tools and data visualization: The previous chapters on Data Mining and Importing Data
into Excel have been reorganized and rewritten to include an increased focus on the tools commonly included under
the Business Analytics umbrella. There is now a new Chapter 4, Business Intelligence Tools for Data Analysis, which
includes Excel’s Power Query tools for importing data into Excel, Excel’s Power Pivot add-in (and the DAX language) for
even more powerful data analysis with pivot tables, and Tableau Public for data visualization. The old online Chapter 18,
Importing Data into Excel, has been eliminated, and its material has been moved to this new Chapter 4.

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xviii PREFACE

• Updated for Office 365, Windows or Mac: The 7th Edition is completely compatible with the latest version of Excel, and
all screenshots in the book are from the latest version. However, because the changes from previous versions are not that
extensive for Business Analytics purposes, the 7th Edition also works well even if you are still using Microsoft Office
2013, 2010, or 2007. Also, recognizing that many students are now using Macs, we have attempted to make the material
compatible with Excel for Mac whenever possible.
• Updated Problems: Numerous problems have been modified to include the most updated data available. In addition,
the DADM 7e Problem Database.xlsx file provides instructors with an entire database of problems. This file indicates
the context of each of the problems and shows the correspondence between problems in this edition and problems in the
­previous edition.
• Less emphasis on add-ins (when possible): There is more emphasis in this edition on implementing spreadsheet
­calculations, especially statistical calculations, with built-in Excel tools rather than with add-ins. For example, there is
no reliance on Palisade’s StatTools add-in in the descriptive statistics chapters 2 and 3 or in the confidence interval and
hypothesis testing chapters 8 and 9. Nevertheless, Palisade’s add-ins are still relied on in chapters where they are really
needed: PrecisionTree for decision trees in Chapter 6; StatTools for regression and time series analysis in Chapters 10,
11, and 12; @RISK for simulation in Chapters 15 and 16; and StatTools and NeuralTools for logistic regression and neu-
ral networks in Chapter 17.
• New optional add-in: Although it is not an “official” part of the book, Albright wrote a DADM_Tools add-in for Excel
(Windows or Mac), with tools for creating summary stats, histograms, correlations and scatterplots, regression, time
series analysis, decision trees, and simulation. This add-in provides a “lighter” alternative to the Palisade add-ins and is
freely available at https://kelley.iu.edu/albrightbooks/free_downloads.htm.

Software
This book is based entirely on Microsoft Excel, the spreadsheet package that has become the standard analytical tool in busi-
ness. Excel is an extremely powerful package, and one of our goals is to convert casual users into power users who can take full
advantage of its features. If you learn no more than this, you will be acquiring a valuable skill for the business world. However,
Excel has some limitations. Therefore, this book relies on several Excel add-ins to enhance Excel’s capabilities. As a group,
these add-ins comprise what is arguably the most impressive assortment of spreadsheet-based software accompanying any book
on the market.

DecisionTools® Suite Add-in

The textbook website for Business Analytics: Data Analysis and Decision Making provides a link to the powerful DecisionTools®
Suite by Palisade Corporation. This suite includes seven separate add-ins:
• @RISK, an add-in for simulation
• StatTools, an add-in for statistical data analysis
• PrecisionTree, a graphical-based add-in for ­creating and analyzing decision trees
• TopRank, an add-in for performing what-if analyses
• NeuralTools®, an add-in for estimating complex, nonlinear relationships
• EvolverTM, an add-in for performing optimization (an alternative to Excel’s Solver)
• BigPicture, a smart drawing add-in, useful for depicting model relationships
We use @RISK and PrecisionTree extensively in the chapters on simulation and decision making under uncertainty, and we
use StatTools as necessary in the data analysis chapters. We also use BigPicture in the optimization and simulation chapters to
provide a “bridge” between a problem statement and an eventual spreadsheet model.
Online access to the DecisionTools Suite, available with new copies of the book and for MindTap adopters, is an
­academic version, slightly scaled down from the professional version that sells for hundreds of dollars and is used by many
leading companies. It functions for one year when properly installed, and it puts only modest limitations on the size of data
sets or models that can be analyzed.

Copyright 2020 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be copied, scanned, or duplicated, in whole or in part. Due to electronic rights, some third party content may be suppressed from the eBook and/or eChapter(s).
Editorial review has deemed that any suppressed content does not materially affect the overall learning experience. Cengage Learning reserves the right to remove additional content at any time if subsequent rights restrictions require it.
 PREFACE xix

SolverTable Add-in
We also include SolverTable, a supplement to Excel’s built-in Solver for optimization.1 If you have ever had difficulty under-
standing Solver’s sensitivity reports, you will appreciate SolverTable. It works like Excel’s data tables, except that for each
input (or pair of inputs), the add-in runs Solver and reports the optimal output values. SolverTable is used extensively in the
optimization chapters.

Windows versus Mac

We have seen an increasing number of students using Macintosh laptops rather than Windows laptops. These students have two
basic options when using our book. The first option is to use the latest version of Excel for Mac. Except for a few advanced
tools such as Power Pivot (discussed in Chapter 4), the Mac version of Excel is very similar to the Windows version. However,
the Palisade and SolverTable add-ins will not work with Excel for Mac. Therefore, the second option, the preferable option, is
to use a Windows emulation program (Bootcamp and Parallels are good candidates), along with Office for Windows. Students
at Indiana have used this second option for years and have had no problems.

Software Calculations by Chapter

This section indicates how the various calculations are implemented in the book. Specifically, it indicates which calculations
are performed with built-in Excel tools and which require Excel add-ins.
Important note: The Palisade add-ins used in several chapters do not work in Excel for Mac. This is the primary reason
Albright developed his own DADM_Tools add-in, which works in Excel for Windows and Excel for Mac. This add-in is freely
available at the author’s website (https://kelley.iu.edu/albrightbooks/free_downloads.htm), together with a Word document on
how to use it. However, it is optional and is not used in the book.

Chapter 1 – Introduction to Business Analytics

• The section on basic spreadsheet modeling is implemented with built-in Excel functions.

Chapter 2 – Describing the Distribution of a Variable

• Everything is implemented with built-in Excel functions and charts.
° Summary measures are calculated with built-in functions AVERAGE, STDEV.S, etc.
° Histograms and box plots are created with the Excel chart types introduced in 2016.
° Time series graphs are created with Excel line charts.

• Palisade’s StatTools add-in can do all of this. It isn’t used in the chapter, but it is mentioned in a short appendix, and an
Intro to StatTools video is available.
• Albright’s DADM_Tools add-in can do all of this except for time series graphs.

Chapter 3 – Finding Relationships among Variables

• Everything is implemented with built-in Excel functions and charts.
Summary measures of numeric variables, broken down by categories of a categorical variable, are calculated with
°

built-in functions AVERAGE, STDEV.S, etc. (They are embedded in array formulas with IF functions.)
° Side-by-side box plots are created with the Excel box plot chart type introduced in 2016.

° Scatterplots are created with Excel scatter charts.

° Correlations are calculated with Excel’s CORREL function. A combination of the CORREL and INDIRECT func-
tions is used to create tables of correlations.
• StatTools can do all of this. It isn’t used in the chapter, but it is mentioned in a short appendix.
• DADM_Tools can do all of this.

1
SolverTable is available on this textbook’s website and on Albright’s website, www.kelley.iu.edu/albrightbooks.

Copyright 2020 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be copied, scanned, or duplicated, in whole or in part. Due to electronic rights, some third party content may be suppressed from the eBook and/or eChapter(s).
Editorial review has deemed that any suppressed content does not materially affect the overall learning experience. Cengage Learning reserves the right to remove additional content at any time if subsequent rights restrictions require it.
Discovering Diverse Content Through
Random Scribd Documents
“Now it will be all right for you?” he said.

“I think so—I hope so. Mr Dallas only wished to be certain

that no complications could occur in the future. He does
trust me, and is satisfied with my position there. My father
has said all that is needful.”

“And when shall you go back, Val?” said Edgar.

The bright eyes were still resolute and clear and the voice
steady, though with a little strain in it.

Alwyn looked at the white fragile face, and could not find
voice for a moment to answer.

“You mustn’t stay too long and spoil me,” said Edgar,
“unless you come back again very quickly.”

Alwyn came nearer and sat down by his side.

“My boy,” he said, “you know I did not come home only to
clear my way for my great hopes. I did come to seek for
pardon and to try to undo a little of the past. There’s a long
time to make up for; there is no hurry. You need not think
about parting yet; that is, if my father—”

Alwyn broke off, and Edgar lay still, twisting his long weak
fingers round the hand he was holding.

“I think you might promise to stay—as long as I want you,”

he said. “I shall let you go—soon.”

“I promise,” said Alwyn gently, and again Edgar was silent,

till he said in a different tone:

“Well, that’s all as it may be. One must take what comes.”

“What is sent,” said Alwyn.

“Val,” said Edgar after another silence, “it was very curious.
Just before you came back I dreamed about you. I saw you.
I knew you directly. But I saw that you were changed; your
face was like it is now—not as it used to be. You are
different.”

“Yes,” said Alwyn, “I am different.”

“Tell me,” said Edgar.

Perhaps Alwyn had never found anything so hard as to

enter on an account of what some people would call his
“experiences” to his brother, but he said quietly:

“When I grew to love Corinne I found out what I had made

of myself by my life. Beforehand, I thought since I had
pulled myself together and all my offences had been before
I was twenty that all was right. But I can’t tell how, through
loving her, my sin against my father, and the bad example I
set you, came back upon me. I felt how hard and selfish
and callous I had been all along. Whether she cared for me
or not, I wasn’t worthy to know she existed.”

“Go on,” said Edgar, as Alwyn paused, conscious that Edgar

was not exactly a comprehending listener.

“Well,” said Alwyn, “as for religion, you know I never had
thought about it. I don’t believe as a family, we’re given to
thinking, and, apart Corinne, young Dallas was a new idea
to me. Of course his ways and words put much into my
head. But it was the earthly love that was granted to me
that showed me what that Higher love might be. And when
I had once said to my Heavenly Father, ‘I have sinned,’
there was nothing for it but to come and say the same to
my earthly one, even—even if he is less merciful.”
Edgar listened with great surprise, but with no doubt
whatever of the absolute sincerity of the speaker.

“Well,” he said, “as for me, I’ve had something to make up

my mind to. I was determined no one should say I was
beaten. I had to give up the army and to know I could
never walk, but I’ve got along and put a good face on it.
‘Never say die’ is not a bad motto. Well now, you see, I’ve
known for some time that I should have ‘to say die,’ sooner
rather than later—very soon, I fancy. When I was last laid
up, I made old Hartford tell me the truth, and I’ve faced
that out too. What must be, must.”

“It would have taken less pluck, my boy, to face the enemy,
if you had gone into the army, than to face your life here,”
said Alwyn tenderly. “I thank God, who made you of that
sort of stuff.”

Edgar looked somewhat struck by this remark.

“One got through things by saying, ‘I don’t care how they

go,’” he said. “And so, Alwyn, it’s been great good luck to
have seen you, and you mustn’t stay here if things are not
smooth. I shall pull along—so remember you haven’t made
any rash promises. Corinne mustn’t think you’re not in a
mortal hurry to get back to her.”

“Corinne will understand,” said Alwyn with a smile. “Come, I

mustn’t let you over-talk yourself. There’s Wyn on the
terrace.”

“I say,” exclaimed Edgar, “he has made a spectacle of his

little red phiz. Here, Wyn! Are you ready to take me out
again?”

“Yes, sir; oh yes, sir. Are you ready to come?”

“Very soon, I hope. And how are all the creatures? Has the
fox been behaving himself?”

“Yes, sir, but one of the little hedgehogs has got away, and
the moor-fowl, sir, I’m sorry to say they constantly
diminish. Father thinks there’s rats about—or a cat, sir.”

“Whew! That’s a bad look-out. Alwyn, you haven’t seen the

Zoological Gardens?”

“Please, sir, should I bring anything up for you and Mr

Alwyn to look at?”

“Let’s have the little Scotch terriers. I’m thinking, Wyn, of

taking up those beetles that live in decayed wood—in old
trees. You’ll have to hunt ’em up for me.”

“Very well, sir, but I don’t know as even Granny would like
them about,” said Wyn, as he went after the dogs.

“Granny? You have seen old Bunny, Val?”

“Oh yes. That was a real welcome. But, Edgar, surely it

could be managed for her to come and see you; she wishes
it so much.”

“I should like to see her again,” said Edgar. “I missed her

when she was crippled, too, poor old dear!”

As he spoke, Geraldine, having come back from church and

let out Apollo, joined them, and presently Mr Cunningham,
walking home by himself, paused a moment in front of the
terrace, as a sound, unheard for many a year, fell on his
ears—the clear ringing laugh of his first-born son. So had
Alwyn laughed in days before they quarrelled, so had he
laughed when his mother had been alive to hear him, and
when Mr Cunningham, if a rather cold father, had been at
least a proud one.

The three puppies, Apollo, a young fox terrier, and a little

rough Skye, were sitting up on their hind legs in a row,
under the tuition of Wyn, who squatted on the ground
opposite them. Geraldine was looking on, holding her
breath with delight, while Alwyn, leaning against the
window by Edgar’s side, was laughing heartily and teasing
Geraldine about her pet.

“Three to one on the little ruffian! Apollo’s nowhere. His

back’s too long, and the fox terrier’s too frisky. Bravo, Wyn!
You ought to keep a circus; they’re steady yet.”

“I should like to, sir, uncommon, and train the performing

dogs, sir,” said Wyn.

“You look as if you had been practising for the clown,” said
Edgar, as his father came forward on to the terrace.

Down tumbled the puppies and up jumped Wyn, retreating

hastily. Alwyn grew stiff and grave in a moment, offering his
father a chair, and Geraldine looked, as she felt,
disappointed at the interruption.

Mr Cunningham sat down. It was the first time that the

family had been thus all together, the first time he had seen
his three children side by side for more than eight years. He
noticed them. He observed that Geraldine was growing a
tall, stately girl, with the promise of distinction if not of
beauty. He noticed the hopeless delicacy of Edgar’s look,
the son whom he had made his heir; and he looked at the
handsome, grave, strong face of the son he had
disinherited, and for the first time he confessed to himself
that he looked fit, at any rate, to be the master of Ashcroft.
And why were they all so grave in his presence? That Alwyn
should be reserved was right enough, but the others? He
had heard them laughing and at case together. He saw
Edgar turn naturally to Alwyn to do him some trifling
service, and for the first time it struck Mr Cunningham that
something more might be made out of his relations to Edgar
and Geraldine than was the case at present. Surely they
were unusually stiff, and not shy, but distant with him.

He did not wish for any approach from Alwyn; but it was
none the less true that these feelings had come to him on
Alwyn’s return, because Alwyn was the only one of his three
children that he had ever greatly loved.
 Chapter Nineteen.
After Eight Years.

Life was certainly a much more peaceable thing in the

Whittaker household while Florence was undergoing the
process of being “stroked down” by Mrs Warren at Ashcroft,
Ethel and Sybil were much less perverse and saucy without
her, and went their several ways like rational girls, Ethel
looking forward to a clerkship in the post-office, and Sybil to
an apprenticeship to a good dressmaker in Rapley. They
contrived to walk about without staring or being stared at,
and as they behaved with ordinary common sense, the
respectability of their superior home showed, and they were
thought well of by their various teachers, and began to take
the lead at their Sunday school in better things than
mischief. Miss Mordaunt found her Bible class comparatively
harmless, and could not honestly feel that she regretted
Florence Whittaker; while, at home, Mattie enjoyed
unwonted peace and quiet.

She knew that she had not managed Florrie very well, but
the relief of feeling no longer responsible for her was great.
After a longish interval, Florence had replied to the letter in
which she had urged her to keep in mind the lesson of
Harry’s misconduct.

The girl could write rather a good letter, and her

descriptions of her life at Ashcroft were amusing. “I should
like it very well if there was anything but trees and live
stock about,” she said, “but I get on right enough. Aunt
Charlotte ain’t made up her mind that I’m going to ‘harry
her up,’ as Aunt Stroud calls it. As for Harry, I remember
him well enough, and there’s others that haven’t forgotten
him neither, and maybe I’m taking example more than you
think.”

Mattie could make nothing of this sentence, but it recalled

Harry to her mind; and one evening, when George had
come back from his work, she began to talk about him.

“It seems a bit heartless of us, George,” she said, “to think
so little about him. He might be in trouble and poverty, and
we so comfortable.”

“I expect we should have heard of him if he had been,” said

George. “Of course, if he turned up, I should do the right
thing by him—after proper inquiries. But I don’t suppose we
should be much the better for him.”

“I wonder if father ever frets after him,” said Mattie.

“I don’t think he does,” said George dryly; “he put him out
of the way too much. But Aunt Stroud made a pet of him.”

“I wish Aunt Lizzie wouldn’t talk so mysterious!” said Mattie

impatiently. “She came down here to-day and talked about
bursting clouds and Providence, till one would have thought
she knew something particular.”

“She’s a talker, worse than Florrie,” said George. “I declare

I’ll be off, Mattie—if there isn’t Aunt Stroud again!”

George was a worthy and useful young man, and if trouble

or poverty had come upon his sisters he would have done
his part by them well. But he liked his life very well as it
was, and he naturally thought that the scapegrace Harry,
though he knew nothing of the jewel story, would come into
it as a disturbing element. Even Mattie, who was much
more tender-hearted, felt afraid of the idea of him, and
would have welcomed him from duty rather than from love.
The father, too, was a good, conscientious, but rather selfish
man, whose life consisted in the routine of his duties. He
had been much more comfortable without Harry than with
him. People cannot vanish for years, leaving trouble behind
them, and always find a spontaneous welcome on their
return. Neither Alwyn Cunningham nor Harry Whittaker had
left to them in the world the one friend who would never
have forgotten them. Their mothers were dead. Their places
were filled up. Had poor Edgar been the gay young officer
that Alwyn had pictured him, the place his brother held in
his memory would probably have been much smaller, and
when Harry Whittaker walked down the broad road in the
middle of the cemetery, no dream had given notice of his
return, nobody had any special desire to see him.

And for himself, he had come home more for the sake of his
child than for that of his family. He recalled them all with an
effort, even as he walked along counting the new tomb-
stones that had appeared since he went away. His Aunt
Stroud had arranged to come to the Lodge a few minutes
before him, so as to prepare his family for his arrival.
Suddenly, however, he perceived his father walking towards
him by a side path, with his order-book under his arm, on
his way from a meeting of the Board. A little greyer-haired,
elderly middle-aged instead of young middle-aged, but far
less altered than Harry himself, at whom he looked without
any recognition. Harry had to choose between letting him
pass and making himself known; but, before he could
resolve what to say, some agitation in his manner, a look
that was not that of the ordinary passer-by in his face,
arrested Mr Whittaker’s attention, and he paused and
looked at him.

“I think I’m speaking to Mr Whittaker?” said Harry, in his

strong outspoken voice, which nevertheless shook a little.
Then he suddenly put out his hand.
“Father, do you know me? I’ve come back to ask your
forgiveness and friendship, and to clear my character as to
the past.”

“My son Henry!” exclaimed Mr Whittaker. He faced him with

a look of great surprise and of uncertain welcome, and yet,
perhaps, he had often enough wondered whether Henry
would come back, not to feel the utter strangeness of an
event never looked forward to.

“It’s your place to explain a little, Henry,” he said, neither

giving nor withholding a welcome.

“If you are willing to hear me,” said Harry.

“Come with me,” said Mr Whittaker.

He turned and led the way into the little office where
business was transacted, and where the relatives and
friends sometimes waited for funerals. In this not very
cheerful spot Harry’s papers and letters (including one from
Mrs Warren) were once more produced, and, under promise
of secrecy for the present, he told his father of the search
for the jewels, and how he would willingly have held back
till they were found, but for his encounter with Florence.

“And,” said Harry, “after what passed I was justified, I think,

in holding aloof, while I was a vagabond and times were so
hard. And after I settled down comfortable and got on,
thanks to Mr Alwyn’s kindness, I’d made up my mind to
forget the old country; but you see, father, I thought, what
if little Georgie, when he grows up, were to keep away from
me for eight years, and live happy? Why, let us have
quarrelled as we would, it’d break my heart to think he
could forget me so. And so—and so, father—I hope you’ll let
me take him his grandfather’s blessing. Mother would have
set great store by him if she’d lived to see him, and he shall
be taught to set store by you.”

The father and son sat looking at each other for a moment
or two in silence. For the big, half-grown, trouble-town of a
boy the father could not say that his heart had broken; but
the thought of the little grandchild brought back early days,
when Harry’s rosy face and sandy curls had been the
mother’s pride, and when his father’s heart would have
nearly broken if he had died in that scarlet fever from which
he had barely recovered. Perhaps he had been too ready to
think ill of the lad, and to cast him upon his own resources.

“If you were wronged about the jewels, Henry,” he said, “it’s
you that have the advantage of us.”

“I’d acted so as to be easy wronged,” said Harry, “but I’d be

glad to go back with all fair behind me.”

Mr Whittaker put out his hand with something like tears in

his shrewd grey eyes. After all, he had not quite forgotten
Harry. Harry gave the hand a great squeeze and walked
over to the window, from which he presently turned round,
saying:

“There’s my aunt, father; she was coming to tell you.”

Mr Whittaker went out to the door and beckoned Harry after

him. There stood Mrs Stroud, beaming; Mattie, flushed and
eager; George by no means so well pleased; and all the
four younger ones eager and excited.

Harry’s coolness returned as soon as he had settled matters

with his father, and he greeted them all as composedly as if
he had returned from a short excursion abroad, and
presently they all went in to sit down to supper and take
each other’s measure as well as they could.
Mrs Stroud at once called for the photograph and Ethel and
Sybil giggled with delight at finding themselves possessed
of a nephew, while Mattie began to think that some of the
romance she was so fond of had found its way into real life.

“And how long do you mean to stay this side of the water,
Harry?” asked his aunt.

“Only till the matter of which I spoke to my father is

concluded or given up. Mr Alwyn and myself could not both
be away for long together, and I think he will not leave his
brother again so quickly. Alberta would be very glad to
make your acquaintances. Will you come back with me and
pay us a visit, Mattie?”

“No, Henery,” said Mrs Stroud; “if Mattie knows which side
her bread’s buttered she’ll stay on this side of the ocean.
But if you want to do a brother’s part by your own family,
you’ll take Florrie off their hands. For there’s no room for
that girl—not in the High Street of Rapley. Perhaps there
might be in Ameriky.”

“Aunt Eliza!” said Mattie indignantly, “Harry only meant so

as to make acquaintance.”

“Well, well,” said Harry, “we’ll talk it all over. But Florence
did her best to get me out of a scrape—”

“Which I make no doubt she got you into,” said Mrs Stroud.

Harry’s eyes twinkled a little, but he did not betray

Florence, and the suggestion dropped into his mind. He
would be glad to do something for one member of his
family, and he rather inclined to the unpopular Florence,
though, of course, he remembered Mattie much better, and
felt pleased when at last she shyly came up to him and said
that she was glad he had come home. But it was all
uncomfortable and full of effort, and Harry felt glad when
the time came to say “Good night,” and he went off to catch
the last train for London. But, as he walked along at full
speed to the station, the feeling of his father’s hand-shake
lingered on his palm, and he felt that he could think of his
child with peace and satisfaction.
 Chapter Twenty.
Glad and Thankful.

There now set in at Ashcroft a period trying to the feelings

of all concerned. No trace of the lost jewels was discovered.
The number of hollow trees in the forest was limited, and so
were their hollows, which were searched as thoroughly as
was possible, and in vain. One or two old trees had been
previously cut down and sawn up; the lost treasure could
not be in them. Alwyn began to wish that the jewels had all
been disposed of in America, and that this search, the folly
of which seemed to throw a sort of doubt on the whole
story, had never been undertaken. Lady Carleton was most
anxious and eager over the matter, and as the search could
hardly be kept quite secret, its cause came to the ears of
Florence, who, when she was out with little Lily, spent her
time in poking her fingers into the smallest knot or rent in
perfectly sound trees, and started a theory that the jewels
were probably in some of the jackdaws’ nests about the
chimneys of Ravenshurst, having been carried there after
the manner of the various thimbles, rings, etc, which had
been so disposed of in the story books with which she was
acquainted. Florence was behaving wonderfully well, and
little Lily was very fond of her; and she perhaps owed some
popularity with the other servants to the fact that she was
the sister of the Henry Whittaker whose name was in every
one’s mouth. Harry was very anxious to get home again. He
took a room at Ashcroft, and visited his family sometimes;
but he was often at a loss what to do with himself. The
Warrens were very kind to him, and all the heads of
departments at the great house took up the cue and
showed him civility; Alwyn always treated him with the
same friendly consideration, and was often glad of a chat
with him on matters familiar to them both.

Alwyn had, however, much else to take up his time and

thoughts. The neighbourhood accepted him and paid him
attentions; which, as it soon became apparent, his father
was anxious that he should accept. The Carletons especially
came forward in a marked manner, and all this gradually
changed and undermined Mr Cunningham’s feelings about
him. He saw that it was impossible to treat such a son as in
disgrace, and perhaps his continued stiffness was more
shyness than displeasure. James Cunningham behaved
admirably, and invited Alwyn to visit him in London, and he
went, though very unwillingly, for all this while poor Edgar
was growing more and more dependent on him, and though
he eagerly urged the acceptance of his cousin’s invitation,
he could not conceal his delight when Alwyn came back
again. Alwyn was touched beyond measure at the affection
that Edgar showed him, and repaid it with the tenderest
devotion.

Poor little Wyn was always hoping that his master would be
well enough to come into the wood; but the drives in the
pony chaise had been very short of late, and often Edgar
was only fit to lie quite still on the terrace, looking at the
sky and the trees, still enjoying the sense of “out of doors,”
which was like life to him.

One splendid afternoon, early in September, when the sky

was one glorious sheet of blue, and the red creepers and
purple clematis were covering the side of the old house with
colour, Wyn came up the garden with a carefully
constructed basket of lichens and wild flowers in his hand.
He had brought it up to show it to Mr Edgar; and, by good
luck, there lay Mr Edgar, alone on his couch, for once
without Mr Alwyn by his side, to take up his attention.
“Ha, Wyn!” he said; “what have you there? What splendid
affair is that?”

“Please, sir, Lady Carleton has offered a prize for the best
wild-flower collection at the flower show to-morrow, and
this is mine. There are grasses and lichens too, sir.”

“Yes. Capital! How well you have arranged it! All the three
sorts of heath too!”

“Yes, sir. Please, sir, last year we went right through the
wood to see the heather in bloom.”

“Ah, yes; but, you see, just lately the pony chair seems to
shake me, so I have to lie still.”

“When you’re better, sir, there’s a new bit of clearing that’s

very pretty. There’ll be plenty of anemones there in the
spring.”

“Yes, in the spring! We’ve had some very good times out
with Dobbles, Wyn, haven’t we? You must bring him up for
me to look at some day, if I can’t go out. Now tell me about
all the creatures.”

Wyn began a long list of the various birds and beasts under
his charge, as had often been his custom; but there was
something in the intent way in which his young master
looked at him that made it difficult for Wyn to go on. Edgar
lay so still, and made so little comment.

“Thank you,” he said, when Wyn paused, which was not at

all his usual way of receiving the reports, as he used to call
them. “Alwyn, is that you at last?” he said, as a step
sounded.
“Yes; did you wonder where I was?” said Alwyn, standing
over him. His colour was high and his look quite radiant. He
held some letters in his hand. Edgar’s attention was caught
at once.

“Your basket is first-rate, Wyn,” he said; “I wish I could

have helped you to get the flowers. Are you going to take it
in now?”

“Yes, sir, and to take some flowers to little Miss Lily, who
wants to send up a bunch, ‘not for competition,’ she says,
sir, because she can’t get them all herself.”

“Well, you must come and tell me about the show.—What is

it, Alwyn?” he added eagerly, as Wyn went his way.

“It is the best of good new’s. Mr Dallas writes the kindest

letter! My letter from here and one from Sir Philip Carleton
have fully satisfied him that all is clear as to the past. For
the future, he says, he can trust me there; and here he
cares nothing. When I go back I shall find a welcome home,
and I may write to her.”

“That’s right,” said Edgar.

He looked up bravely, but Alwyn felt the congratulating

hand tighten close upon his own. Edgar’s nerves were too
weak now for him to be allowed to dwell on any agitating
topic, and Alwyn just added a word or two of detail, and
then said: “Now I shall read to you; you’ll hear enough
about it all in time, no doubt.”

“No,” said Edgar, “go and write your letter. I see father
coming; he will tell me the news. Just lift me up a little bit
and give me some drink. Yes, so—I am quite comfortable.”
Alwyn was naturally very eager to write his letter, and went
into the house, grateful to Edgar for understanding his
hurry.

But he did not know that Edgar had wound up all the
remains of his resolute spirit to an effort he was determined
to make. Poor fellow! ‘Don’t care’ was no easy saying to him
now. His heart beat fast, and he could scarcely conquer the
dread of making matters worse by speaking. “Father,” he
began, after Mr Cunningham had said a few ordinary words
about the weather, “I can’t say very much now; you’ll
forgive me for being short and sudden. You know, father—I
shall never be your heir—never. You will not let any one
think that you wait for the chance of finding those jewels
before you set Alwyn in his right place. What can a man do
but repent? I know it must come right finally; but, father,
will you give me the happiness of seeing it?”

“The jewels are neither here nor there,” said Mr

Cunningham.

“But, if they are found, it will look as if Alwyn needed that

to reinstate him. Don’t you see how scrupulous he is—that
he will hardly pick a flower or ask a question? He puts off all
his own happiness for me; he stays because I need him so
much. But that won’t be for so very long. Oh, father, make
it right for him to stay here; make it right for yourself. I
know that you know how it must be, as things have turned
out. But say so, father, say so. Things get clear when one is
forced to think. I know now that you really missed him; he
feels how much cause for anger you had. Father, I care so
very much that you should really take him back and forgive
him!”

“You distress yourself needlessly,” said Mr Cunningham,

stiffly still, but not unkindly. “I was justified, I think, in
taking time to consider. I greatly regret Alwyn’s American
connections. But you are quite right in feeling that I should
not now be justified in diverting the property from the direct
line. That will I spoke of has been destroyed for some
weeks.”

“I did not mean to distrust you, father,” said Edgar. “I knew

that you would see it so, but you will let people know that it
is so.”

“Did your brother know that you meant to speak to me?”

“No, oh no! We have never touched on the subject.”

“Don’t distress yourself,” said Mr Cunningham; “I will take

opportunities. Here is Alwyn coming.”

Perhaps Alwyn thought the echo of the voices through the

window a little too eager, for he came out with an anxious
look at Edgar, making an excuse of pushing the couch more
into the shade.

“Alwyn,” said Mr Cunningham, “my agent has been making

a proposal to pull down the cottages and farm-buildings on
Ashurst Farm, and throw it into one concern with Croppings.
What do you think?”

“I—really, sir—I cannot judge,” said Alwyn, turning round

and considerably startled at this appeal.

“I shouldn’t wish to do it if you disliked the notion. Perhaps,

if Edgar does not want you, you would walk down with me
and look at the place.”

“Go—go,” whispered Edgar. “Go with him at once.”

Alwyn and his father were a long while away. Edgar had
been taken indoors while they were out, and, weak as he
was, had grown weary of waiting before Alwyn came in,
much too late to send his half-written letter by that day’s
post.

“Edgar,” he said in a low voice, “it is all right. My father shall

not, if I can help, repent it.”

“Tell me,” said Edgar eagerly.

“We didn’t get on much with settling about the farms,” said
Alwyn, half laughing. “As we walked down he said that he
begged me to spare him conversation on the subject. I was
to understand that my place was ready for me. And then,
when brooks came up about the farms, he referred him to
me in a sort of matter-of-course way that I could have
laughed at. A fine notion Brooks must have formed of my
knowledge of the subject! We met Sir Philip Carleton, and
when he said that the search in the wood seemed hopeless,
my father answered that, for Lady Carleton’s sake, he was
sorry. It did not, of course, particularly concern himself.
Then he walked round by the stables and made me say
which of his young horses should be sold. I could only say I
would come to-morrow and look more particularly. I
couldn’t have told a racer from a cab-horse then. But,
Edgar, the best of it was that I—I knew that he liked it, that
he felt it good to have me to ask and to care. And at last he
said something about ‘my friends in America.’ I don’t think
he liked the notion much, but he ended by saying that he
would write to Mr Dallas, and that he should be glad to
make the young lady’s acquaintance at no distant date.”

“Yes,” said Edgar. “Alwyn, you ought to go and fetch her—

you will one day—and bring her to see Ashcroft. But—”
“Some day, perhaps,” said Alwyn. “Just now I’m going to
take care of you, and do what I can to please my father. He
was very good.”

“I couldn’t let you go,” said Edgar. “It used to come across
me what it would be like to die alone. I was afraid of getting
worse always, though I wouldn’t own it to myself. Afraid of
having to lie here shut up from the air and the light, and
just the things that made life bearable—with never any
change. But now that I have you—”

“I have had much that I don’t deserve,” said Alwyn very

low; “but of all these mercies, the one I am most glad, most
thankful for, is that I can help you, my dear, dear boy!
Thank God for that!”

“I am glad,” said Edgar; “oh, how glad! But I am afraid I

don’t know much about being thankful, Val; you must teach
me.”
 Chapter Twenty One.
In a “Rift Imprisoned.”

Wyn gave up his basket of wild flowers to Mr Elton, who had

charge of the arrangements for the flower show, and then
went on to Ravenshurst with those he had collected for Lily.
He had been sent over there once or twice with parcels or
messages for Florence, and the nurse, thinking him a well-
behaved little boy, allowed him to stop and give his opinion,
whether the white flowers gathered in the hedges were all,
as Florence said, “hemlock,” or would rank as different
specimens. Wyn sorted out yarrow and wild parsley, cow
parsley, and several others, and then said:

“Miss Lily hasn’t got any honeysuckle. That’s not rare, but it
is very sweet, and suitable for a young lady’s basket. You
should put the climbing things round the edge for her,
Florrie; different sorts of brambles, and dog-rose berries,
and traveller’s joy.”

“There’s some honeysuckle on the old oak tree,” said

Florrie, “but we can’t get it, it’s too high up.”

“I’ll fetch it down for you,” said Wyn, scrambling up the

lower branches of the tree. “Why,” he said, putting his hand
into a hole a few feet up, “how clean someone’s scraped out
this hole—taken all the old nests out of it!”

“There ain’t nothing in it, Wyn, is there?” said Florrie.

“No; I once tried to make that hole ever so nice and soft
with moss and stuff, and put acorns and nuts in it to get the
squirrels there. I even went and got a bit of putty and
stopped up the hole in the bottom and put decayed wood
over it; but, bless you, they never came.”

“What did you do, Wyn?” said Florence, coming close.

“Stopped a great hole. It’s stopped still; I can put my hand

down, and you feel nothing but wood.”

“Could you get the hole open, Wyn? Was it a hole that
things could be hidden in?”

“I suppose so. Whatever is the matter, Florrie? You look

downright scared!”

The hole was wide and shallow. Wyn took the knife with
which he had meant to cut the honeysuckle, scraped and
cut, and, the soft decayed wood giving way, the piece of
putty yielded to his pull and came out.
“There’s a hole, but I can’t feel the bottom of it,” he said.

“Put in my sunshade; feel with the hook.”

“My stars, Florrie, there’ll be nothing alive in there!” said

Wyn; but, boy like, to fish in a hole with a hook was
delightful to him. “There’s—there’s something down at the
bottom. I can just reach. It’s hard—it’s loose. Hi! I’ve got it;
it’s coming up. Oh, my eyes! Oh, my stars! It’s—it’s
diamonds!”

“It’s them!” cried Florence, clasping her hands as a long

band of flashing stones came up into the sunlight on the
hook of her parasol, and Wyn tumbled right out of the tree
in his amazement, dropping his treasure-trove most
appropriately at the feet of Lady Carleton, who, unseen by
Wyn and Florence, had come up, and was watching them
under the tree.

“Found!” she exclaimed; “found at last!”

“Is it the lost jewels?” said Wyn, bewildered. “Why, who

ever would have thought of looking in a tree for them?”

“As if they hadn’t been looking in all the holes in the wood,”
said Florence, “and you could have told them of another.
Didn’t you know?”

“I hated coming here without Mr Edgar,” said Wyn.

“Now, not another thing must be done till Sir Philip knows,
and Mr Cunningham, and Harry Whittaker too. Stay there,
Wyn Warren; don’t touch the tree. Come, Florence, and tell
Sir Philip we have got them,” said Lady Carleton.

Sir Philip declared that the rest of the jewels must be taken
out in the presence of those most nearly concerned, and
hurried messengers were sent to summon them; while Sir
Philip, the Ravenshurst keeper, and Wyn patrolled round the
tree, as if they thought that the jays and the wood-pigeons
would carry off the precious discovery.
The short September evening had closed in, and the wood
was all dusky and dewy, when at last Mr Cunningham and
Alwyn, Harry Whittaker, Sir Philip and Lady Carleton, Wyn
and Florence by right of discovery, the two head-keepers,
and the village constable, all gathered, by the light of the
rising moon and of some half-dozen lanterns, round the
tree.

“Now, Warren,” said Mr Cunningham, “cut away till you lay

the bottom of the hole open.” Wyn held the light, the keeper
gave two or three cuts with a small axe, and a great piece
of the rotten bark gave way under the stroke.

“You can look in now, sir,” he said. “Give us the lantern,

Wyn.”

Sir Philip and Mr Cunningham peered into the hole, which

seemed to be full of decayed wood, soft and crumbling.

“Will Lady Carleton see if she can find anything?” said

Alwyn.

Lady Carleton came forward and put her hand into the hole.

“It’s like a bran pie!” she said, with a nervous little laugh.
“But yes—here is a prize!” Out came something, discoloured
and tarnished, but a gold bracelet; then something else,
which, as the dust was shaken off and the light fell on it,
flashed and dazzled—a diamond star, rings, brooches,
everything. The lost jewels were found at last!

“Begging your pardon, gentlemen,” said Harry Whittaker, “I

can’t understand now how they came to be hidden so
completely.”

“It is clear enough at last,” said Sir Philip.

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