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 Statistics and Data
Visualisation with Python

This book is intended to serve as a bridge in statistics for graduates and business practitioners interested
in using their skills in the area of data science and analytics as well as statistical analysis in general. On the
one hand, the book is intended to be a refresher for readers who have taken some courses in statistics, but
who have not necessarily used it in their day-to-day work. On the other hand, the material can be suitable
for readers interested in the subject as a first encounter with statistical work in Python. Statistics and
Data Visualisation with Python aims to build statistical knowledge from the ground up by enabling the
reader to understand the ideas behind inferential statistics and begin to formulate hypotheses that form
the foundations for the applications and algorithms in statistical analysis, business analytics, machine
learning, and applied machine learning. This book begins with the basics of programming in Python and
data analysis, to help construct a solid basis in statistical methods and hypothesis testing, which are use-
ful in many modern applications.
Chapman & Hall/CRC
The Python Series
About the Series
Python has been ranked as the most popular programming language, and it is widely used in education and industry.
This book series will offer a wide range of books on Python for students and professionals. Titles in the series will
help users learn the language at an introductory and advanced level, and explore its many applications in data sci-
ence, AI, and machine learning. Series titles can also be supplemented with Jupyter notebooks.

Image Processing and Acquisition using Python, Second Edition

Ravishankar Chityala, Sridevi Pudipeddi

Python Packages
Tomas Beuzen and Tiffany-Anne Timbers

Statistics and Data Visualisation with Python

Jesús Rogel-Salazar

For more information about this series please visit: https://www.crcpress.com/Chapman--

HallCRC/book-series/PYTH
 Statistics and Data
Visualisation with Python

Jesús Rogel-Salazar
First edition published 2023
by CRC Press
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and by CRC Press

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Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data

Names: Rogel-Salazar, Jesus, author.

Title: Statistics and data visualisation with Python / Dr. Jesús
Rogel-Salazar.
Description: First edition. | Boca Raton, FL : CRC Press, 2023. | Series:
Chapman & Hall/CRC Press the python series | Includes bibliographical
references and index. | Identifiers: LCCN 2022026521 (print) | LCCN 2022026522 (ebook) | ISBN
9780367749361 (hbk) | ISBN 9780367744519 (pbk) | ISBN 9781003160359
(ebk)
Subjects: LCSH: Mathematical statistics--Data processing. | Python
(Computer program language) | Information visualization.
Classification: LCC QA276.45.P98 R64 2023 (print) | LCC QA276.45.P98
(ebook) | DDC 519.50285/5133--dc23/eng20221026
LC record available at https://lccn.loc.gov/2022026521
LC ebook record available at https://lccn.loc.gov/2022026522

ISBN: 978-0-367-74936-1 (hbk)

ISBN: 978-0-367-74451-9 (pbk)
ISBN: 978-1-003-16035-9 (ebk)

DOI: 10.1201/9781003160359

Typeset in URWPalladioL-Roman
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Publisher’s note: This book has been prepared from camera-ready copy provided by the author.
To Luceli, Rosario and Gabriela

Thanks and lots of love!

Taylor & Francis
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 Contents

1 Data, Stats and Stories – An Introduction 1

1.1 From Small to Big Data 2

1.2 Numbers, Facts and Stats 10

1.3 A Sampled History of Statistics 14

1.4 Statistics Today 22

1.5 Asking Questions and Getting Answers 25

1.6 Presenting Answers Visually 30

2 Python Programming Primer 33

2.1 Talking to Python 35

2.1.1 Scripting and Interacting 38

2.1.2 Jupyter Notebook 41

2.2 Starting Up with Python 42

2.2.1 Types in Python 43

 viii j. rogel-salazar

2.2.2 Numbers: Integers and Floats 43

2.2.3 Strings 46

2.2.4 Complex Numbers 49

2.3 Collections in Python 51

2.3.1 Lists 52

2.3.2 List Comprehension 60

2.3.3 Tuples 61

2.3.4 Dictionaries 66

2.3.5 Sets 72

2.4 The Beginning of Wisdom: Logic & Control Flow 80

2.4.1 Booleans and Logical Operators 80

2.4.2 Conditional Statements 82

2.4.3 While Loop 85

2.4.4 For Loop 87

2.5 Functions 89

2.6 Scripts and Modules 94

3 Snakes, Bears & Other Numerical Beasts: NumPy, SciPy & pandas
99
3.1 Numerical Python – NumPy 100
3.1.1 Matrices and Vectors 101

3.1.2 N-Dimensional Arrays 102

 statistics and data visualisation with python ix

3.1.3 N-Dimensional Matrices 104

3.1.4 Indexing and Slicing 107

3.1.5 Descriptive Statistics 109

3.2 Scientific Python – SciPy 112

3.2.1 Matrix Algebra 114

3.2.2 Numerical Integration 116

3.2.3 Numerical Optimisation 117

3.2.4 Statistics 118

3.3 Panel Data = pandas 121

3.3.1 Series and Dataframes 122

3.3.2 Data Exploration with pandas 124

3.3.3 Pandas Data Types 125

3.3.4 Data Manipulation with pandas 126

3.3.5 Loading Data to pandas 130

3.3.6 Data Grouping 136

4 The Measure of All Things – Statistics 141

4.1 Descriptive Statistics 144

4.2 Measures of Central Tendency and Dispersion 145

4.3 Central Tendency 146

4.3.1 Mode 147

4.3.2 Median 150

 x j. rogel-salazar

4.3.3 Arithmetic Mean 152

4.3.4 Geometric Mean 155

4.3.5 Harmonic Mean 159

4.4 Dispersion 163

4.4.1 Setting the Boundaries: Range 163

4.4.2 Splitting One’s Sides: Quantiles, Quartiles, Percentiles and More 166

4.4.3 Mean Deviation 169

4.4.4 Variance and Standard Deviation 171

4.5 Data Description – Descriptive Statistics Revisited 176

5 Definitely Maybe: Probability and Distributions 179

5.1 Probability 180

5.2 Random Variables and Probability Distributions 182

5.2.1 Random Variables 183

5.2.2 Discrete and Continuous Distributions 185

5.2.3 Expected Value and Variance 186

5.3 Discrete Probability Distributions 191

5.3.1 Uniform Distribution 191

5.3.2 Bernoulli Distribution 197

5.3.3 Binomial Distribution 201

5.3.4 Hypergeometric Distribution 208

5.3.5 Poisson Distribution 216

 statistics and data visualisation with python xi

5.4 Continuous Probability Distributions 223

5.4.1 Normal or Gaussian Distribution 224

5.4.2 Standard Normal Distribution Z 235

5.4.3 Shape and Moments of a Distribution 238

5.4.4 The Central Limit Theorem 245

5.5 Hypothesis and Confidence Intervals 247

5.5.1 Student’s t Distribution 253

5.5.2 Chi-squared Distribution 260

6 Alluring Arguments and Ugly Facts – Statistical Modelling and

Hypothesis Testing 267
6.1 Hypothesis Testing 268

6.1.1 Tales and Tails: One- and Two-Tailed Tests 273

6.2 Normality Testing 279

6.2.1 Q-Q Plot 280

6.2.2 Shapiro-Wilk Test 282

6.2.3 D’Agostino K-squared Test 285

6.2.4 Kolmogorov-Smirnov Test 288

6.3 Chi-square Test 291

6.3.1 Goodness of Fit 291

6.3.2 Independence 293

xii j. rogel-salazar

6.4 Linear Correlation and Regression 296

6.4.1 Pearson Correlation 296

6.4.2 Linear Regression 301

6.4.3 Spearman Correlation 308

6.5 Hypothesis Testing with One Sample 312

6.5.1 One-Sample t-test for the Population Mean 312

6.5.2 One-Sample z-test for Proportions 316

6.5.3 Wilcoxon Signed Rank with One-Sample 320

6.6 Hypothesis Testing with Two Samples 324

6.6.1 Two-Sample t-test – Comparing Means, Same Variances 325

6.6.2 Levene’s Test – Testing Homoscedasticity 330

6.6.3 Welch’s t-test – Comparing Means, Different Variances 332

6.6.4 Mann-Whitney Test – Testing Non-normal Samples 334

6.6.5 Paired Sample t-test 338

6.6.6 Wilcoxon Matched Pairs 342

6.7 Analysis of Variance 345

6.7.1 One-factor or One-way ANOVA 347

6.7.2 Tukey’s Range Test 360

6.7.3 Repeated Measures ANOVA 361

6.7.4 Kruskal-Wallis – Non-parametric One-way ANOVA 365

6.7.5 Two-factor or Two-way ANOVA 369

 statistics and data visualisation with python xiii

6.8 Tests as Linear Models 376

6.8.1 Pearson and Spearman Correlations 377

6.8.2 One-sample t- and Wilcoxon Signed Rank Tests 378

6.8.3 Two-Sample t- and Mann-Whitney Tests 379

6.8.4 Paired Sample t- and Wilcoxon Matched Pairs Tests 380

6.8.5 One-way ANOVA and Kruskal-Wallis Test 380

7 Delightful Details – Data Visualisation 383

7.1 Presenting Statistical Quantities 384
7.1.1 Textual Presentation 385

7.1.2 Tabular Presentation 385

7.1.3 Graphical Presentation 386

7.2 Can You Draw Me a Picture? – Data Visualisation 387

7.3 Design and Visual Representation 394
7.4 Plotting and Visualising: Matplotlib 402
7.4.1 Keep It Simple: Plotting Functions 403

7.4.2 Line Styles and Colours 404

7.4.3 Titles and Labels 405

7.4.4 Grids 406

7.5 Multiple Plots 407

7.6 Subplots 407
7.7 Plotting Surfaces 410
7.8 Data Visualisation – Best Practices 414
 xiv j. rogel-salazar

8 Dazzling Data Designs – Creating Charts 417

8.1 What Is the Right Visualisaton for Me? 417

8.2 Data Visualisation and Python 420

8.2.1 Data Visualisation with Pandas 421

8.2.2 Seaborn 423

8.2.3 Bokeh 425

8.2.4 Plotly 428

8.3 Scatter Plot 430

8.4 Line Chart 438

8.5 Bar Chart 440

8.6 Pie Chart 447

8.7 Histogram 452

8.8 Box Plot 459

8.9 Area Chart 464

8.10 Heatmap 468

A Variance: Population v Sample 477

B Sum of First n Integers 479

C Sum of Squares of the First n Integers 481

 statistics and data visualisation with python xv

D The Binomial Coefficient 483

D.1 Some Useful Properties of the Binomial Coefficient 484

E The Hypergeometric Distribution 485

E.1 The Hypergeometric vs Binomial Distribution 485

F The Poisson Distribution 487

F.1 Derivation of the Poisson Distribution 487
F.2 The Poisson Distribution as a Limit of the Binomial Distribution 488

G The Normal Distribution 491

G.1 Integrating the PDF of the Normal Distribution 491
G.2 Maximum and Inflection Points of the Normal Distribution 493

H Skewness and Kurtosis 495

I Kruskal-Wallis Test – No Ties 497

Bibliography 501

Index 511
Taylor & Francis
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List of Figures

1 Do you know what type of data you have? Use this

flow chart to guide you about the tests you may want to
use. xxxiii

1.1 Diagrammatic representation of the data project

workflow. 26
1.2 The power of questions on a scale. 29

2.1 Slicing and dicing a list. 54

2.2 Conditional control flow. 83
2.3 While loop control flow. 85
2.4 For loop control flow. 87

3.1 Scatter plot of synthetic data and a line of best fit

obtained with simple matrix operations. 115
3.2 Average population in millions for the city classification
created for the GLA report data. 139

5.1 Probability distribution of the number of S faces in

Two-Face’s fair coin flipped 100 times. 190
5.2 The uniform distribution. 195
5.3 The Bernoulli distribution. 200
5.4 The binomial distribution. 207
xviii j. rogel-salazar

5.5 The hypergeometric distribution. 215

5.6 The Poisson distribution. 222
5.7 Measures of a standard imperial Klingon kellicam in
metres. 226
5.8 The normal or Gaussian distribution. 231
5.9 The empirical rule gives us approximations about the
percentage of data observations within a number of
standard deviations from the mean. 236
5.10 Positive and negative skewed distributions. 242
5.11 Kurtosis of different distributions. 244
5.12 Probability distributions for the Student’s t-distribution
for ν = 1, 5, 30. For comparison we show the normal
distribution as a dashed curve. 257
5.13 The Student’s t-distribution for ν = 3. 259
5.14 Probability density function for the chi-square
distribution for different degrees of freedom. 262
5.15 The chi-squared distribution for k = 3. 263

6.1 A schematic way to think about hypothesis

testing. 269
6.2 One- v Two-Tail Tests. 275
6.3 Q-Q plots for a normally distributed dataset, and a
skewed dataset. 282
6.4 Two possible datasets to be analysed using analysis of
variance. We have three populations and their means.
Although the means are the same in both cases, the
variability in set 2) is greater. 345

7.1 A scatter plot for the jackalope.csv dataset. 389

 statistics and data visualisation with python xix

7.2 Anscombe’s quartet. All datasets have the same

summary statistics, but they have very different
distributions. 392
7.3 Visual variables and their ease of perception. 397
7.4 How many letters “t” are there in the sequence? 398
7.5 Compare the area of the circles v compare the length of
the bars. 399
7.6 Combining visual variables can help our visualisations
be more effective. 400
7.7 Plot of the function y = sin( x ) generated with
matplotlib. 406
7.8 Plot of the functions sin( x ) and cos( x ) generated with
matplotlib. 408
7.9 Subplots can also be created with matplotlib. Each
subplot can be given its own labels, grids, titles, etc.
409
7.10 A surface plot obtained with the plot_surface
command. Please note that this requires the generation
of a grid with the command meshgrid. 412

8.1 Time series plot created with pandas. 422

8.2 Time series plot created with Bokeh. 425
8.3 Time series plot created with seaborn. 427
8.4 Time series plot created with Plotly. 429
8.5 Scatterplot of city population versus its approximate
radius size. The plot was created with
matplotlib. 431
xx j. rogel-salazar

8.6 Scatterplot of city population versus its approximate

radius size, the colour is given by the city size category
in the dataset. The plot was created with
pandas. 432
8.7 Bubble chart of city population versus its approximate
radius size. The colour is given by the city size category
in the dataset, and the marker size by the people per
dwelling. The plot was created with Seaborn. 433
8.8 Bubble chart of city population versus its approximate
radius size. The colour is given by the city size category
in the dataset, and the marker size by the people per
dwelling. The plot was created with Bokeh. 434
8.9 Bubble chart of city population versus its approximate
radius size, the colour is given by the city size category
in the dataset, and the marker size by the people per
dwelling . The plot was created with Bokeh using the
Pandas Bokeh backend. 436
8.10 Bubble chart of city population versus its approximate
radius size. The colour is given by the city size category
in the dataset, and the marker size by the people per
dwelling. The plot was created with Plotly. 437
8.11 A scatter plot for the jackalope.csv dataset including a
regression line and marginal histograms created with
the jointplot method of Seaborn. 440
8.12 A bar chart for the total population per country for the
cities contained in our dataset. The plot was created
with matplotlib. 442
8.13 A horizontal bar chart for the total population per
country for the cities contained in our dataset. The plot
was created with pandas. 443
 statistics and data visualisation with python xxi

8.14 A stacked bar chart for the total population per country
for the cities contained in our dataset categorised by
city size. The plot was created with pandas. 444
8.15 A column bar for the total population per country for
the cities contained in our dataset categorised by city
size. The plot was created with Seaborn. 445
8.16 A stacked bar chart for the total population per country
for the cities contained in our dataset categorised by
city size. The plot was created with Pandas
Bokeh. 446
8.17 A stacked bar chart for the total population per country
for the cities contained in our dataset categorised by
city size. The plot was created with Plotly. 447
8.18 Top: A pie chart of the information shown in Table 8.2.
The segments are very similar in size and it is difficult
to distinguish them. Bottom: A bar chart of the same
data. 449
8.19 A donut chart of the data from Table 8.2 created with
pandas. 451
8.20 A histogram of the miles per gallon variable in the cars
dataset. The chart is created with matplotlib. 454
8.21 Histogram of the miles per gallon as a function of the
type of transmission. The chart is created with
pandas. 455
8.22 Histogram of the miles per gallon as a function of the
type of transmission. The chart is created with
Seaborn. 456
8.23 Histogram of the miles per gallon as a function of the
type of transmission. The chart is created with Pandas
Bokeh. 457
xxii j. rogel-salazar

8.24 Histogram of the miles per gallon as a function of the

type of transmission. The chart is created with
Plotly. 458
8.25 Pairplot of the cars dataset showing the relationship
between miles per gallon and horse power per
transmission type. 459
8.26 Anatomy of a boxplot. 460
8.27 Box plot of the miles variable in the cars dataset. The
chart is created with matplotlib. 460
8.28 Box plot of the miles per gallon as a function of the
type of transmission. The chart is created with
pandas. 461
8.29 Left: Box plots of the miles per gallon as a function of
the type of transmission. Middle: Same information but
including a swarm plot. Right: Same information
represented by violin plots. Graphics created with
Seaborn. 462
8.30 Box plot of the miles per gallon as a function of the
type of transmission. The chart is created with
Plotly. 463
8.31 Area plot of the data from Table 8.3 created using
matplotlib. 465
8.32 Unstacked area plot of the data from Table 8.3 created
with pandas. 466
8.33 Area plot of the data from Table 8.3 created using
Pandas Bokeh. 467
8.34 Area plot of the data from Table 8.3 created using
Plotly. 468
 statistics and data visualisation with python xxiii

8.35 Heatmap of the number of cars by transmission type

and number of cylinders. Plot created using
matplotlib. 470
8.36 Heatmap of the number of cars by transmission type
and number of cylinders in a pandas dataframe. 470
8.37 Heatmap of the number of cars by transmission type
and number of cylinders created with Seaborn. 471
8.38 Heatmap of the number of cars by transmission type
and number of cylinders created with Plotly. 472
8.39 Heatmap of the number of cars by transmission type
and number of cylinders created with Bokeh. 474
Taylor & Francis
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List of Tables

1.1 Common orders of magnitude for data 3

1.2 Ranking of companies by market capitalisation in
billions of U.S. dollars in 2020 7
1.3 Examples of outcomes and outputs. 28

2.1 Arithmetic operators in Python. 43

2.2 List methods in Python. 60
2.3 Tuple methods in Python. 64
2.4 Dictionary methods in Python. 72
2.5 Set methods in Python. 79
2.6 Comparison and logical operators in Python. 82

3.1 Student marks in three different subjects. 109

3.2 Population and area of some selected global
cities. 123
3.3 Pandas data types. 126
3.4 Some of the input sources available to pandas. 131

4.1 Ratings for some Château Picard wine. 158

5.1 Probability of our coin flipping experiment. 184

xxvi j. rogel-salazar

5.2 Special cases of the PDF and CDF for the Student’s
t-distribution with different degrees of freedom. 256

6.1 Types of errors when performing hypothesis

testing. 270
6.2 Results from a random sample of 512 Starfleet officers
about their preference for Mexican food and their
rank. 294
6.3 Results from the regression analysis performed on the
brain and body dataset. 306
6.4 Results of the planetary Cromulon musical
competition. 311
6.5 Ratings for the perceived effect of two Starfleet pain
relief medications. 336
6.6 Pre- and post-treatment general health measures of
Starfleet volunteers in the Kabezine study. 339
6.7 Pre- and post-treatment general health measures of USS
Cerritos volunteers in the Kabezine study. 343
6.8 Table summarising the results of an analysis of variance
(ANOVA). 352
6.9 Performance of three Caprica City toasters in hours in
excess of 1500 hours of use. 353
6.10 Results of the different methods to learn Python for
Data Science at Starfleet Academy. 368
6.11 A typical data arrangement for a two-factor
ANOVA. 370
6.12 Table summarising the results of a two-way analysis of
variance (two-way ANOVA). 372

7.1 Effectiveness ranking of perceptual tasks for different

visual variables. 400
 statistics and data visualisation with python xxvii

7.2 Colours and line styles that can be used by

matplotlib. 405
7.3 Names of colormaps available in matplotlib. 413

8.1 Given the question of interest, and the type of data

provided, this table provides guidance on the most
appropriate chart to use. 418
8.2 A table of values to create a pie chart and compare to a
bar chart. 448
8.3 First encounters by notable Starfleet ships. 464
Taylor & Francis
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Preface

“This is the last time” are the words I remember thinking

after finishing the corrections of Advanced Data Science and
Analytics with Python1 . However, I do know myself and here 1
Rogel-Salazar, J. (2020). Advanced
Data Science and Analytics with
we are again. Actually, this is exactly what happens after Python. Chapman & Hall/CRC
Data Mining and Knowledge
finishing running a half-marathon: After the race I think I Discovery Series. CRC Press
would not sign up for another one, and then a few weeks
later I am training again. The same has happened with this
book. Although I thought I was not going to write another
one, the niggling feeling was there and the end result is in
your hands.

The motivation for the book has been the conversations

with colleagues and students about the need to have a
statistical bridge for graduates and business practitioners
interested in using their skills in the area of data science The book is good as a refresher
on statistics, but also a bridge
and analytics. The book is also intended to be a refresher
for graduates and business
for readers that have taken some courses in statistics, but practitioners.
who have not necessarily used it in their day-to-day work.
Having said that, the material covered can be suitable for
readers interested in the subject as a first encounter with
statistical work in Python.
xxx j. rogel-salazar

Statistics and Data Visualisation with Python aims to build

statistical knowledge from the ground up enabling us to
understand the ideas behind inferential statistics and
formulate hypotheses that can serve as the basis for the Statistical concepts underpin
applications in data science and
applications and algorithms in business analytics, machine
machine learning.
learning and applied machine learning. The book starts
with the basics of programming in Python and data analysis
to construct a solid background in statistical methods and
hypothesis testing useful in a variety of modern
applications.

As with my previous books, Python is the chosen language

to implement computations. Unlike other books in statistics,
where step-by-step manual calculations are shown, we
concentrate on the use of programming to obtain statistical We use Python 3 in this book.

quantities of interest. To that end, we make use of a number

of modules and packages that Pythonistas have created. We
assume that you have access to a computer with Python 3.x
installed and you are encouraged to use a Jupyter notebook.
For reference, the versions of some of the packages used in
the book are as follows:

Python - 3.8.x pandas - 1.3.x

NumPy - 1.21.x SciPy - 1.7.x Versions of Python modules used
StatsModels - 0.13.x Matplotlib - 3.5.x in this book.
Seaborn - 0.11.x Plotly Express - 5.6.x
Bokeh - 2.4.x pandas Bokeh - 0.5

As before, I am using the Anaconda Python distribution2 2

Anaconda (2016, November).
Anaconda Software Distribution.
provided by Continuum Analytics. Remember that there are Computer Software. V. 2-2.4.0.
https://www.anaconda.com
other ways of obtaining Python as well as other versions of
 statistics and data visualisation with python xxxi

the software: For instance, directly from the Python

Software Foundation, as well as distributions from Python Software Foundation
https://www.python.org
Enthought Canopy, or from package managers such as
Homebrew.
Enthought Canopy https://www.
enthought.com/products/epd/
We show computer code by enclosing it in a box as follows:

> 1 + 1 % Example of computer code Homebrew http://brew.sh

We use a diple (>) to denote the command line terminal

prompt shown in the Python shell. Keeping to the look
and feel of the previous books, we use margin notes, such
as the one that appears to the right of this paragraph, to
highlight certain areas or commands, as well as to provide
some useful comments and remarks.

The book starts with an introduction to what statistics is and

how it has evolved over the years from the administrative Chapter 1 serves as a preamble to
the rest to the book.
activities around a city and its population, to the powerful
tool on which a lot of us come to rely on a day-to-day basis.
The first chapter serves as a preamble to the rest of the book
and this can be read independently of the rest of the book.

Since we will be using Python throughout the book, in

Chapter 2 we present a programming primer that provides Chapter 2 is a Python primer and
3 introduces some useful Python
the basics of Python from assigning variables and managing
modules like NumPy, SciPy and
collections like lists, tuples and dictionaries to building pandas.
programming logic using loops and conditionals. In
Chapter 3 we build from the basics of Python to start using
some powerful modules that let us delve into statistical
xxxii j. rogel-salazar

analysis in an easy way. The chapter introduces NumPy,

SciPy and pandas to manipulate data and start extracting
information from it. If you are familiar with Python you can
safely skip these two chapters and jump straight into
Chapter 4.

I recommend you read Chapters 4 to 6 sequentially. The

reason for this is that later chapters build on the content Chapter 4 covers descriptive
statistics, Chapter 5 discusses
from previous ones. In Chapter 4 we discuss different
probability distributions and
measures that are important in descriptive statistics and Chapter 6 hypothesis testing.
provide the footing to consider datasets as a whole. In
Chapter 5 we talk about random variables and probability,
opening up the discussion to different probability
distributions that let us start thinking of hypothesis testing.
This is the subject of Chapter 6, where we look various
statistical tests, both parametric and non-parametric.

If you are interested in jumping to a particular section of

the book, use the diagram shown in Figure 1 where you can Consult Figure 1 to quickly decide
the type of test you may need.
follow the flow chart depending on the characteristics of the
data you have. Note that each test has some assumptions
behind it; use the information in the rest of the book to
support your analysis. Bear in mind that there is an element
of randomness and uncertainty in any given data, and I
hope that the discussions do not leave you singing random
Pavarotti songs like good old Rex the Runt’s friend Vince. Ta-raa-raa-raa ♩ Raa-raa-raa 
RAA-RAA 
The chapters mentioned above shall let us handle that
randomness and uncertainty in a systematic way.

Remember that statistics is a discipline that studies methods

of collecting, analysing and presenting data. With the latter
 statistics and data visualisation with python xxxiii

Figure 1: Do you know what type

of data you have? Use this flow
in mind, the last two chapters of the book are dedicated chart to guide you about the tests
you may want to use.
to the discussion of data visualisation from perception of
visual aspects, to best practices in Chapter 7 and examples
on how to create common statistical visualisations with Chapters 7 and 8 cover different
aspects of data visualisation.
Python in Chapter 8.

I sincerely hope that the contents of the book are useful to

many of you. Good statistical thinking is a great tool to have
in many walks of life and it is true to say that the current
availability of data makes it even more important to have
a good grasp of the concepts and ideas that underpin a
xxxiv j. rogel-salazar

sound statistical analysis, with great visuals to support our

arguments. Stay in touch and who knows I may be saying
“maybe one more” after having uttered yet again “this is the
last time”!

London, UK Dr Jesús Rogel-Salazar

June 2022
About the Author

Dr Jesús Rogel-Salazar is a lead data scientist working

for companies such as Tympa Health Technologies, AKQA,
IBM Data Science Studio, Dow Jones, Barclays, to name
a few. He is a visiting researcher at the Department of
Physics at Imperial College London, UK and a member of
the School of Physics, Astronomy and Mathematics at the
University of Hertfordshire, UK. He obtained his doctorate
in Physics at Imperial College London for work on quantum
atom optics and ultra-cold matter.

He has held a position as Associate Professor in

mathematics, as well as a consultant and data scientist in a
variety of industries including science, finance, marketing,
people analytics and health, among others. He is the author
of Data Science and Analytics with Python and Advanced Data
Science and Analytics with Python, as well as Essential
MATLAB® and Octave, published by CRC Press. His
interests include mathematical modelling, data science and
optimisation in a wide range of applications including
optics, quantum mechanics, data journalism, finance and
health tech.
Taylor & Francis
Taylor & Francis Group
http://taylorandfrancis.com
Other Books by the Same Author

• Data Science and Analytics with Python

CRC Press, 2018, ISBN 978-1-138-04317-6 (hardback)
978-1-4987-4209-2 (paperback)

Data Science and Analytics with Python is designed for

practitioners in data science and data analytics in both
academic and business environments. The aim is to
present the reader with the main concepts used in data
science using tools developed in Python. The book
discusses what data science and analytics are, from the
point of view of the process and results obtained.

• Advanced Data Science and Analytics with Python

CRC Press, 2020, ISBN 978-0-429-44661-0 (hardback)
978-1-138-31506-8 (paperback)

Advanced Data Science and Analytics with Python enables

data scientists to continue developing their skills and
apply them in business as well as academic settings. The
subjects discussed in this book are complementary and a
follow-up to the topics discussed in Data Science and
Analytics with Python. The aim is to cover important
advanced areas in data science using tools developed in
xxxviii j. rogel-salazar

Python such as SciKit-learn, pandas, NumPy, Beautiful

Soup, NLTK, NetworkX and others. The model
development is supported by the use of frameworks such
as Keras, TensorFlow and Core ML, as well as Swift for
the development of iOS and MacOS applications.

• Essential MATLAB® and Octave

CRC Press, 2014, ISBN 978-1-138-41311-5 (hardback)
978-1-4822-3463-3 (paperback)

Widely used by scientists and engineers, well-established

MATLAB® and open-source Octave provide excellent
capabilities for data analysis, visualisation, and more.
By means of straightforward explanations and examples
from different areas in mathematics, engineering, finance,
and physics, the book explains how MATLAB and Octave
are powerful tools applicable to a variety of problems.
1
Data, Stats and Stories – An Introduction

Data is everywhere around us and we use it to our

advantage: From wearing clothes appropriate for the
weather outside, to finding our way to a new location with
the aid of GPS and deciding what to buy in our weekly
shopping. Furthermore, not only are we consumers of data
but each and every one of us is a data creator. It has never
been easier to create and generate data. Consider your daily
use of technology such as your humble smartphone or
tablet: How many emails do you read or write? How many
pictures do you take? How many websites do you visit?
And many other similar questions. Each of these
interactions generates a bunch of data points.

There are even accounts about the amount of data that is

being generated. For example, in 2013 SINTEF1 reported 1
SINTEF (2013). Big Data, for
better or worse: 90% of world’s
that the 90% of the world’s data had been created in the data generated over last two years.
www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2013/
previous two years. And the pace will keep up and even
05/130522085217.htm. Accessed:
accelerate given the number of new devices, sensors and 2021-01-01

ways to share data.

2 j. rogel-salazar

In this chapter we will look at how the current availability

of data has given rise to the need for more and better data
analysis techniques. We will see how these techniques
are underpinned by strong foundations in statistics. We Here’s what to expect in this
chapter.
will also cover some of the historical developments that
have made statistics a sought-after skill and will provide a
framework to tackle data-driven enquiry. Let us get started.

1.1 From Small to Big Data

Big things start from small ones. Think of the vastness

of a desert, and consider the smallness of each grain of sand.
Or look at a single star and expand your view to the large
number of them in a galaxy, and then to the number of
galaxies, most of them seeded with their own black holes. We will come back to these black
holes, bear with me.
The same applies to data: Each data point on its own may
not be all that powerful, but when combined with others the
possibilities open up.

The interest in data may range from looking at historical

trends that in turn may hold some clues as to what may
happen in the future and even tell us what we should do. There are different levels of
analytics, take a look.
These are the different levels required for a robust analytics
environment. Or put in different terms:

• Descriptive analytics - use data in aggregation to look at

the past and answer questions such as “what happened?”

• Predictive analytics - use statistical models and

forecasting techniques to answer questions such as “what
will happen?”
 statistics and data visualisation with python 3

• Prescriptive analytics - Use optimisation and simulation

techniques to look at possible outcomes and answer
questions such as “what will happen if...? and what
should we do?”

Name Value Bytes Magnitude

Byte (B) 1 1 1
Kilobyte (KB) 1, 0241 1, 024 103
Megabyte (MB) 1, 0242 1, 048, 576 106
Gigabyte (GB) 1, 0243 1, 073, 741, 824 109 .
Terabyte (TB) 1, 0244 1, 099, 511, 627, 776 1012
Petabyte (PB) 1, 0245 1, 125, 899, 906, 842, 624 1015
Exabyte (EB) 1, 0246 1, 152, 921, 504, 606, 846, 976 1018
Zettabyte (ZB) 1, 0247 1, 180, 591, 620, 717, 411, 303, 424 1021
Yottabyte (YB) 1, 0248 1, 208, 925, 819, 614, 629, 174, 706, 176 1024

Table 1.1: Common orders of

magnitude for data

The use of relevant data is central to each of these types of

analytics. As such, the volume of data together with their
variability and richness can power up various applications.
These days, services underpinned by machine learning
have become all the rage, and every successful company
out there is actually a data company in one way or another.
The Economist reported in 2017 that the data created and
copied every year will reach 180 zettabytes in 2025. Sending That is 180 × 1021 or 180 followed
by 21 zeros.
that information via an average broadband connection, was
calculated by The Economist to take 450 million years2 . 2
Loupart, F. (2017).
Data is giving rise to a
new economy. The Economist -
Just for reference, one single exabyte corresponds to www.economist.com/briefing/2017/
05/06/data-is-giving-rise-to-
1, 048, 576 terabytes (TB). You can refer to Table 1.1 to look at a-new-economy. Accessed:
2021-01-02
the relationship between different common measures for
data. You may want to know that it would take 728, 177
4 j. rogel-salazar

floppy disks or 1, 498 CD-ROM discs to store just 1 TB These references may only be
meaningful to people of a certain
worth of information. 1024 TB is one petabyte (PB) and this
age... ahem... If not, look it up!
would take over 745 million floppy disks or 1.5 million
CD-ROM discs.

Numbers like these sound fanciful, but consider that there

are examples of companies resorting to the use shipping
containers pulled by trucks to transfer data. Given the
different geographical locations where relevant data is
generated and captured, it is not unusual to hear about
physical transfer of data. A simple example is provided
Including the “Gran Telescopio
by the capture of the first image ever obtained of a black Milimétrico Alfonso Serrano” at
hole in 2019. With the use of eight radio telescopes located INAOE, an institution where I
spent some time as a young optics
around the globe, scientists where able to record an image
researcher.
of a black hole by improving upon a technique that allows
for the imaging of far-away objects known as Very Long
Baseline Interferometry, or VLBI3 . Each telescope would 3
The Event Horizon Telescope
Collaboration (2019). First M87
capture 350 TB of data per day for one week. In this way, Event Horizon Telescope Results. I.
The Shadow of the Supermassive
from each grain of sand, a great desert is created. Black Hole. ApJL 875(L1), 1–17

The telescopes are not physically connected and the data is

not networked. However, they synchronise the data with
atomic clocks to time their observations in a precise manner.
The data was stored on high-performance helium-filled All five petabytes of observations.

hard drives and flown to highly specialised supercomputers

— known as correlators — at the Max Planck Institute for
Radio Astronomy and MIT Haystack Observatory to be
combined. They were then painstakingly converted into an
They used Python by the way!
image using novel computational tools developed by the You can look at the image here:
https://www.eso.org/public/
collaboration. All that for a single, magnificent image that
news/eso1907/.
let’s us gaze into the abyss.
 statistics and data visualisation with python 5

The availability of data in such quantities is sometimes

described using the umbrella term “Big Data”. I am not a
huge fan of the term, after all big is a comparative adjective
— i.e. “big” compared to what and according to whom? Big compared to what and
according to whom?
Despite my dislike for the term, you are likely to have come
across it. Big data is used to describe large volumes of
data which we would not be able to process using a single
machine or traditional methods.

In the definition provided above you may be able to see

why I have a problem with this term. After all, if I am a
corner shop owner with a spreadsheet large enough for
my decades-old computer I already have big data; whereas
this spreadsheet is peanuts for a server farm from a big
corporation like Google or Amazon. Sometimes people refer
to the 4 V’s of big data for a more precise definition. We
have already mentioned one of them, but let us take a look
at all of them:

• Volume – The sheer volume of data that is generated and Volume – the size of the datasets
at hand.
captured. It is the most visible characteristic of big data.

• Velocity – Not only do we need large quantities of data, Velocity – the speed at which data
is generated.
but they also need to be made available at speed. High
velocity requires suitable processing techniques not
available with traditional methods.

• Variety – The data that is collected not only needs to Variety – Different sources and
data types.
come from different sources, but also encompasses
different formats and show differences and variability.
After all, if you just capture information from StarTrek
followers, you will think that there is no richness in Sci-Fi.
6 j. rogel-salazar

• Veracity – This refers to the quality of the data collected. Veracity – Quality and
trustworthiness of the data.
This indicates the level of trustworthiness in the datasets
you have. Think of it – if you have a large quantity of
noise, all you have is a high pile of rubbish, not big data
by any means.

I would like to add a couple of more V’s to the mix. All

for good measure. I mentioned visibility earlier on, and No, visibility is not one of the
traditional V’s but it is one to keep
that is a very important V in big data. If the data that we
an eye on :)
have captured is sequestered in silos or simply not made
available for analysis, once again we have a large storage
facility and nothing else.

The other V I would like to talk about is that of value. At The final V is that of value. Data
that does not hold value is a cost.
the risk of falling for the cliché of talking about data being
the new oil, there is no question that data — well curated,
maintained and secured data — holds value. And to follow
the overused oil analogy, it must be said that for it to
achieve its potential, it must be distilled. There are very few
products that use crude oil in its raw form. The same is true
when using data.

We can look at a proxy for the value of data by looking at

the market capitalisation of some of the largest companies.
By the end of 2020, according to Statista4 , 7 out of the 10 4
Statista (2020). The 100 largest
companies in the world by
most valuable companies in the world are technology market capitalization in 2020.
www.statista.com/statistics/263264/top-
companies that rely on the use of data, including Microsoft,
companies-in-the-world-by-
Apple and Alphabet. Two are multinational conglomerates market-capitalization. Accessed:
2021-01-03
or corporations whose component firms surely use data.
Another Random Scribd Document
with Unrelated Content
 "'Hic innocentis pocula Lesbii
Duces sub umbra.'"

"Certainly innocent enough sir," observed Reginald lightly, "but the

fact is we have been listening to Mr. Beaumont."

"And the discourse?" asked the vicar, taking a cup of tea from
Pumpkin.

"The decadence of Literature and the Drama in England," replied

Beaumont with a smile.

"Ah, indeed. I'm afraid, Mr. Beaumont, I know nothing of the drama,
except the Bard of Avon----"

"Whom Mr. Beaumont likes, in moderation," interrupted Pumpkin

mischievously.

"Certainly," assented Beaumont gravely. "I like all things in

moderation."

"Even Horace," whispered Dick to Reginald, who laughed loudly and

then apologised for his untimely mirth.

"As to literature," said Dr. Larcher ponderously, "I'm afraid there is

rather a falling off--we are frivolous--yes, decidedly frivolous."

"I wish we were anything half so pleasant," remarked Beaumont,

"I'm afraid we're decidedly dull."

"The wave of genius which began with this present century," said
the vicar pompously, "has now spent its force and to a great extent
died away--soon it will gather again and sweep onward."

"If it would only sweep away a few hundred of our present writers, I
don't think anyone would mind," said the artist laughing.
"Sed omnes una manet nox," observed Dr. Larcher with a grim
smile.

"What, all our present day scribblers? What a delightful thing for the
twentieth century."

Dr. Larcher smiled blandly as he set down his cup, for he liked his
Horatian allusions to be promptly taken up, and began to think
Beaumont rather good company. He nodded kindly to the whole
party, and was about to turn away when a sudden thought struck
him.

"Do you want to see me, Mr. Beaumont?" he asked looking at the
artist.

"Yes, I do," replied that gentleman, rising leisurely to his feet. "I
wish to speak to you about Blake, and also I wish Blake to be
present."

"Oh, I'll come," cried Reginald, springing forward with alacrity, for he
guessed what the conversation would be about.

"Come then to my study," said Dr. Larcher. "Pumpkin, my child, you

had better come inside, as the night is coming on."

As the three gentlemen walked towards the house, Pumpkin

commenced putting the tea-things together in order to take them
inside. Dick, who had risen to his feet, was staring after Beaumont
with something like a frown on his fresh, young face.

"What's the matter, Dick?" asked Pumpkin, pausing for a moment.

"Eh?" said Dick, starting a little, "oh, nothing, only I don't like him."

"Whom?"
"Mr. Beaumont," said Pemberton thoughtfully. "I think he's a
humbug."

"I'm sure he's a most delightful man," observed Ferdinand loftily.

"Oh, you'd think anyone delightful who praised your poetry," retorted
Dick rudely, "but I do not like Beaumont; he's very clever and talks
well, no doubt, but he's an outsider all the same."

"What makes you think so?" said Pumpkin, looking at him with the
tray in her hands.

"Oh, I can size a man up in two minutes," observed Dick in his usual
slangy manner, "and if I was Reggy I wouldn't give that chap the
slant to round on me; he says a lot he doesn't mean, and if he's
going to run Reggie's show the apple-cart will soon be upset."

Owing to Dick's lavish use of slang, Pumpkin was quite in the dark
regarding his meaning, so with a quiet smile walked indoors with the
tray.

"Reggy can look after himself all right," observed the poet in a placid
tone.

"And a jolly good thing too," cried Dick, eyeing the poetic youth in a
savage manner, "but prevention's better than cure, and I wouldn't let
Beaumont have a finger in my pie if I were Reggy."

"Ah, you see you're not Reggy."

"I'm uncommonly glad I'm not you," retorted Dick politely. "It must
be an awful disagreeable thing for you to know what an arrant idiot
you are."

"I'm not an idiot," said Priggs haughtily.

"Not an idiot!" echoed Dick derisively, "why you are such an idiot you
don't even know you are one."

CHAPTER XIV.

THE DIPLOMACY OF BASIL BEAUMONT.

Astute is he who mere brute force despises

And gains by subtle craft all worldly prizes.

When the three gentlemen were comfortably seated in the vicar's

study, Beaumont, without further preamble, explained his errand.

"You know, sir," he said to genial Dr. Larcher, "that Blake has a very
fine voice--a phenomenal tenor voice, which, when properly trained,
will make his fortune. Blake tells me he has not decided what line of
life to take up, so I propose he should be a singer."

"Oh, I should like it above all things," cried Reginald with the usual
thoughtless impulse of youth.

"Wait a moment," observed the vicar cautiously. "I am not much in

favour of a theatrical career for you, Reginald, and, this is too
important a matter to be decided lightly, so I would like to hear Mr.
Beaumont's views on the subject."

"Oh, my views are easily explained," said Beaumont coolly. "I know
very well your objections to a theatrical career, Doctor Larcher, and
no doubt it is full of temptations to a young man, still, Blake need
not sing on the stage, but make his appearance on the concert-
platform--good tenors are rare, so he will soon have plenty of work
and make an excellent income."

"And what do you propose to do?" asked the vicar thoughtfully.

"That is the point I am coming to," explained Beaumont quickly. "I

am not a rich man myself, but I know many people in Town who are
wealthy; if Blake will come up to Town with me, I will undertake to
find sufficient money to give him a first class training as a singer;
when he makes a success--and I have very little doubt he will do so-
-he can pay me back the money advanced and a certain percentage
for the loan and risk: then of course he will have an excellent
profession and be able to earn his own living."

"London is full of temptation to a young man," observed Dr. Larcher

doubtfully.

"A young man must take his chance about that," replied Beaumont
satirically. "Of course Blake will be with me and for my own sake I
will do my best to keep him out of harm's way; but you surely don't
want him to stay in this village all his life, wrapped up in cotton
wool?"

"I'm not in the habit of being wrapped up in cotton wool," cried

Reginald, piqued at the artist's tone, "and I daresay if I was in
London I could look after myself without anybody's help."

"I've no doubt you could," replied Beaumont cordially, "all I offer you
is assistance. Now what do you say, Dr. Larcher?"

"At present, I can say nothing," answered the vicar slowly. "Reginald
is as dear to me as if he was my own son, and the choice of a career
is not lightly to be decided upon. I had hoped he would become a
curate, and then there would have been no necessity for his leaving
me."
"I don't think I would have made a good curate," said Blake shaking
his head, "and though I love this dear old village very much, yet I
want to see a little of the world--my voice is my only talent, so the
sooner I make use of it the better."

"Quod adest memento componere aquus," quoted the vicar

significantly.

"Dum loquimur, fugerit invida ætas," replied Reginald quickly.

"Fairly answered," said the vicar with a half sigh. "Yes, I suppose
you must take advantage of flying time and it is no use for you to
waste your life in idleness. Would you like to be a singer?"

"I think so," said Blake after a pause. "Of course I am anxious to
make my own way in the world, and unless I make use of my one
talent I do not see how I am to do so."

"I wish I had your one talent," observed Beaumont, rather enviously;
"I would not rail against fate--well Doctor Larcher, and what is your
decision?"

"I cannot give it to you now," said the old man rising, "it is too
important a matter to be dismissed lightly. I will let you have an
answer in a few days. Still, Mr. Beaumont, I must thank you for your
kind intentions regarding Reginald."

"Only too glad to be of service," replied Beaumont, with a bow.

"Meantime," said the vicar genially, "you must stop and have some
dinner with us."

"Delighted," responded Beaumont, and went away with Reginald,

very well satisfied with the result of the interview.

After dinner, hearing that a visitor was in the house Mrs. Larcher,
who had been lying down all day under the influence of "The
Affliction," made her appearance and greeted Beaumont with great
cordiality.

"So pleased to see you," she said graciously, when she was
established on the sofa amid a multiplicity of wraps and pillows;
"quite a treat to have some one to talk to."

"Come, come, my dear, this is rather hard upon us," said the vicar
good-humouredly.

"I mean some one new," explained Mrs. Larcher graciously. "I am so
fond of company, but owing to my affliction see very, very few
people; it's a great deprivation to me I assure you."

"No doubt," assented Beaumont, rather bored by the constant flow

of Mrs. Larcher's conversation, "but I hope you will soon quite
recover from your illness and then you can mix with the world."

"Never, ah never," murmured Mrs. Larcher, looking up to the ceiling.

"I'm a wreck--positively a wreck--I will never, never be what I was--I
suffer from so many things, do I not, Eleanor Gwendoline?"

"You do, mama," replied that damsel who was seated at the piano.
"But you would not object to a little music, would you, dear?"

"If it's soft, no," answered the invalid wearily, "but dear Reginald, do
not sing loud songs, they are so bad for my nerves."

"All right," replied Reginald, and forthwith sang a sentimental ditty

called "Loneliness," which had dreary words and equally dreary
music.

"I do wish song writers and their poets would invent something
new," observed Beaumont when this lachrymose ballad came to an
end, "one gets so weary of broken hearts and all that rubbish."
"I quite agree with you, Mr. Beaumont," said Dr. Larcher
emphatically. "I observe in the songs of the present day a tendency
to effeminate bewailings which I infinitely deplore. We have, I am
afraid, lost in a great measure, the manliness of Dibdin and the
joyous ideas of the Jacobean lyricists."

"What about the sea songs?" asked Dick, "they are jolly enough."

"No doubt," replied Beaumont, "'Nancy Lee' and the 'Three Jolly
Sailor Boys,' have a breezy ring about them, but this sugar and
water sentimentality now so much in vogue is simply horrible--it's a
great pity a reaction does not set in, then we would have a more
healthy tone."

"Still there is a fascination about sorrow which neither poet nor

musician can resist," observed Ferdinand Priggs, who was anxious to
read one of his poems to the company.

"I dare say," said Beaumont quickly; "but there is a great tendency
to morbidness, too much use of broken hearts and minor keys, in
fact the whole tendency of the age is pessimistic--we are always
regretting the past, deploring the present, and dreading the future."

"I think that has been the case in all ages of the world," observed
the vicar; "man has invariably talked of the prosperity of the past,
and the decadence of the present."

"The past is past, and the dead are dead," murmured the poet
thoughtfully.

"A quotation?" asked Beaumont, struck with the remark.

"From a poem of my own," said Ferdinand quickly, "which I would

like to read."

"By all means, my boy," asserted the vicar heartily. "Read on."
All the company glanced at one another and Dick groaned audibly,
while Mrs. Larcher settled herself in her pillows with a sigh of
resignation. But the poet rejoiced that he had succeeded in gaining a
hearing, and producing from his pocket a carefully written
manuscript read the following poem in a carefully modulated voice:--

A BALLADE OF DEAD DAYS.

I.

Oh, I am weary of idle songs

Of lords and ladies and olden time,
All their mirth to the past belongs,
Sorrow sounds in our present rhyme.
Joy-bells change to the death-bell's chime,
Age is bitter and youth hath fled,
Gone is the season of hope sublime,
The past is past, and the dead are dead.

II.

Ladies I loved in those far-off days,

Where are ye now with your golden hair?
My locks are white neath a crown of bays,
But youth's rose-crown was to me more fair.
My heart was captured in many a snare
Enmeshed in ringlets of gold outspread,
Now in my heart lurks a bleak despair.
The past is past, and the dead are dead.

III.

Many the goblets of wine I quaffed

To health of dames who were fair and frail,
 A kiss of the hand and a plumed hat doffed.
Then away to the wars in a coat of mail.
But, ah, that armour could not prevail
Against your eyes and your lips so red,
Nay, but such thoughts are a twice-told tale,
The past is past, and the dead are dead.

ENVOI.

Time, wilt thou never let me forget

Those perished days till I'm cased in lead?
Folly to dream with such vague regret,
The past is past, and the dead are dead.

"The style is Villon, I see," observed Beaumont, when the poet

ended.

"It's more than the genius is," muttered Dick, who cherished a
deadly hatred of Ferdinand's poetry.

"I like your refrain, my dear Ferdinand," observed the vicar

graciously; "it has a certain pleasant lilt about it, but I'm afraid your
verses are somewhat gruesome. Still, they have merit. Oh, yes, they
have merit."

"I'm glad you think so," said the modest poet humbly, to whom
praise was as rain on thirsty flowers. "I hope to do better soon."

"I've no doubt you will," said Beaumont, rather sorry for the poor
youth, who was blushing painfully. "Your verses are, to a certain
extent, an echo of Villon, still you have a musical ear, and that is a
great thing. If I may be permitted to give an opinion I rather think
your views are a trifle pessimistic."

"Just what we were talking about," cried Reginald gaily. "A regret for
the past and a lament for the present."
"It is the spirit of the age," sighed Ferdinand, putting the poem in
his pocket. "It is hard to escape its influence."

"If any one had a chance of escaping it you ought to be the

individual," said Beaumont, with a smile. "In London, where the
latest ideas are floating in the air, it is difficult to be original, but out
here, where the work is standing still, you ought to have struck out a
new line. I'm afraid your poetry comes from books, not from
Nature."

"Why so?" demanded Ferdinand, rather nettled.

"By the very fact that you used in that ballade an exotic form of
rhyme, and the ideas therein are the dreary, hopeless sorrows of a
worn-out world. Sing, like Herrick of the things around you,

'Of brooks, of blossoms, birds and bowers,

Of April, May, of June and July flowers,'

then you will probably strike a new note."

"I don't think much of Herrick," muttered Ferdinand proudly.

"Too cheerful, perhaps?" said Beaumont sarcastically. "That's a pity,

as I see you are in danger of joining the dyspeptic school of poets,
of whom we have been talking. Don't have too much gaslight about
your muse, my dear boy, but let her be the buxom nymph of that
charming old pagan, Robert Herrick."

"Your remarks are very sensible," observed the vicar heartily, as

Beaumont rose to go. "If poetry must be written, let it be natural
poetry. There is too much of the dissecting-table and charnel-house
about our modern rhymists."

"It's the dead world of the past which presses on the dying world of
the present," said Ferdinand, gloomily.
"Oh, bosh!" cried Dick, in disgust. "Your liver's out of order, my dear
chap, that's what's the matter with you."

The outraged poet withdrew in haughty dignity, while Beaumont

took his leave of this kindly family circle, who pressed him to come
again, so much had they enjoyed his company.

"Come again," muttered Beaumont to himself, as he strolled back to

the inn, with a cigarette between his lips. "I should rather think so.
I've won the vicar's heart by my disinterested affection for his
protégé. It's wonderful, the effect of a little diplomacy--so much
better than outward defiance. I think, my dear Patience, that should
you take it into your foolish head to malign me, you will find it a
more difficult task than you think. Diplomacy is the only weapon I
can use against a woman like you, and it's an uncommonly useful
weapon when properly used."

CHAPTER XV

A FANTASTIC THEORIST.

"He is a man
Full of strange thoughts, and fancies whimsical,
Who dreams of dreams that make his life a dream.
And had he powers supernal at command,
Would tumble heaven itself about our ears
In his mad searchings for--I wot not what."
The room which Beaumont had turned into a studio while painting
Squire Garsworth's portrait, overlooked the terrace on to which the
French windows opened. It was the drawing-room of the Grange,
and was magnificently furnished in the ponderous style of the
Georgian period, though now, being but rarely used, an air of
desertion and decay seemed to linger about it. The windows,
however, being large and curtainless, there was an excellent light to
paint by, so Basil established his easel near the centre window, and
placed the squire at one further along, in order that the full light
should fall on his withered face, showing the multitudinous wrinkles
and stern expression that made it a study worthy of Rembrandt.
Beaumont often glanced at the attenuated form lying listlessly back
in the great arm-chair, and wondered what curious event had
changed this man from an idle reveller into an industrious scholar.

Above was the painted ceiling of the apartment, whereon gods and
goddesses, in faded tints, disported themselves among dingy blue
clouds, surrounded by cupids, sea-horses, rising suns and waning
moons, while, below, a threadbare carpet covered the polished floor
but imperfectly. A huge marble fireplace, cold and black-looking,
heavy, cumbersome chairs, solid-looking tables, a quaint old spinet
with thin legs and several comfortable-looking sofas, filled up the
room. There were also grim-looking faces frowning from the walls,
cabinets filled with grotesque china, now worth its weight in gold,
bizarre ornaments from India and China, and many other quaint
things, which made the apartment look like a curiosity-shop to the
refined taste of the artist. But in spite of the old-time magnificence
of the place, spiders spun their webs in the corners, grey dust lay
thickly around, and a chill, tomb-like feeling pervaded the room.
Even the cheerful sunlight could not lift the heavy shadow which
seemed to brood over it, and it seemed, in its loneliness, to be a
chamber of some enchanted palace, such as we read of in eastern
tales.

Nor was the proprietor out of place in this decayed realm of former
grandeur, for he looked old and weird enough to have been coeval
with the pristine splendours of the Grange. The worn face, the
sudden gleams of insane fire from the deeply-set eyes, the snowy,
sparse hair that fell from under the black skull-cap, and the sombre
robe, all seemed to be the semblance of some hoary necromancer
rich in malignant spells of magic.

Had Randal Garsworth mixed with the world he would have been a
different creature. Had he gone abroad among his fellow men and
taken an interest in their ideas concerning politics, literature, and
music, he would have retained a healthy mind by such generalization
of his intellect. But, shutting himself up, as he had done, in a lonely
house, and concentrating his mind upon himself, he lapsed into a
morbid state which prepared him for the reception of any fantastical
idea. While thus lingering in this unhealthy life, he chanced upon the
curious doctrine of metempsychosis, and it speedily took possession
of his diseased mind, already strongly inclined towards strange
searchings. The weirdness of the Pythagorean theory appealed to
his love of the whimsical, and he became a monomaniac on the
subject. Under the influence of a lonely life, ardent studies of the
philosophers who supported the theory of transmigration, and his
selfish application of these wild doctrines to his own soul, the
monomania under which he laboured deepened into madness.

To all appearances he conducted himself in a rational manner,

though slightly eccentric, but with his firm belief in metempsychosis,
and his preparations for his future incarnation he could hardly be
called sane. Yet he conducted all business matters with admirable
skill, and in spite of the dilapidated state of the Grange, his farms
were well managed, and his tenants found no cause to complain of
neglect on the part of their landlord. Like all madmen, he was a
profound egotist, and absorbed in his belief of a re-incarnation on
this earth, he paid no heed to the claims of relatives or friends,
neglecting all social duties in order to devote himself entirely to his
favourite delusions. Such was the man who sat before Basil
Beaumont, by whose skilful brush and genuine talent the strange
face of the recluse was rapidly being transferred to the canvas in the
most life-like manner.

"I hope this portrait will please you," said Beaumont, breaking the
silence which had lasted some minutes, "it's the best thing I have
ever done."

"Is it?" replied Garsworth, vaguely, his mind being far away,
occupied with some abstruse thought. "Yes, of course. What did you
say?"

"I hope you'll like the picture," repeated Beaumont, slowly.

"Of course I will," said the squire, quickly. "I want to see myself in
the future as I am now. Some people look back on their portraits
taken in youth, and see a faint semblance of their old age in the
unwrinkled faces, but I will see this picture when in a new body
which will have no resemblance in its form to the withered shape I
now bear."

"A strange doctrine."

"As you say--a strange doctrine," said Garsworth, warming with his
subject, "but a very true one. My body is old and worn out.
Physically, I am an irreparable wreck, but my soul is as lusty, fresh
and eager as it was in the days of my youth. Why, then, should not
my true entity shed this worn-out, fleshly envelope as a snake does
its skin, and enter into a new one replete with the vigour of youth?"

"A difficult question to answer," replied Beaumont, calmly, "very, very

difficult. We have no proof that such a thing can happen."

"You are a materialist?"

"Pardon me, no. A materialist, as I understand the word, denies the

independent existence of spirit; I do not. I believe our spirits or
souls to be immortal: but, as to this re-incarnation theory--it is a
dream of Pythagoras."

"It was a dream of many before Pythagoras, and has been the
dream of many since," rejoined Garsworth, coldly. "The Egyptians,
the Hindoos and the Buddhists all accepted the doctrine, although
each treated it according to their different religions. In our modern
days Lessing believed in it; and if you have read the writings of
Kardec you will find that re-incarnation is the very soul of the spiritist
belief."

Beaumont sneered.

"I can't say I have much faith in the maunderings of spiritualists.

Table-turning and spirit-rapping may be very pleasant as an
amusement; but as a religion--bah!"

"You talk like that because you don't understand the subject. The
things you mention are only the outward manifestation of
spiritualism. If you read Kardec's books you would find that the true
theory of spiritualism is transmigration. Spirits are incarnated in
human bodies in order to work out their own advancement. If they
resist temptation while in the flesh, they enter into a higher sphere,
in order to advance another step. If they fail to lead a pure life, they
again become re-incarnated in the flesh to make another effort; but
they never retrograde."

"And you believe in this doctrine?" asked Beaumont, incredulously.

"With certain reservations--yes."

"And those reservations?"

"I need not mention all, but I will tell you one as an example. The
spiritists deny that we remember former existences--I believe we
do."
"Oh! and you think in your next body you will remember your
incarnation as Squire Garsworth?"

"I do."

"Do you remember your former existences?"

"Some of them."

"Why not all?"

"Because some of the lives I then lived were base in the extreme,
and not worthy of remembrance, so I forgot them--in the same way
as you forget disagreeable things and only have thoughts of
agreeable events."

"Will you tell me some of your former existences?"

"It would be hardly worth while," replied the squire, irritably, "as you
would only look upon my narration as a fairy-tale. But I can tell you
what I was--an Egyptian prince, a Roman soldier, a Spanish Moor,
and an English pauper in the reign of Elizabeth."

Beaumont looked in astonishment at the old man, glibly running off

this fantastic list.

"And since the pauper stage?" he asked, smothering a smile.

"I have been re-incarnated in this present form," responded the

squire, gravely; "it is because I experienced poverty in my last
existence that I am saving money now."

"I don't understand."

"To keep myself during my next incarnation."

The artist was becoming quite bewildered at hearing this farrago of

nonsense uttered in such a serious tone. However the conversation
was so extraordinary that he could not forbear humouring the
madman.

"A very laudable intention," he said, quietly, "but as you will be

someone else in your next incarnation, how are you going to claim
Squire Garsworth's money?"

"Ah!" responded the squire, with a cunning smile, "that is my secret;

I have arranged all that in a most admirable way. I can claim my
own money without any trouble."

"But suppose you are born a savage?"

"I will not be born a savage--that would be retrogression, and spirits

never retrograde."

"Well," said Beaumont, rising to his feet, and putting his brushes
away, "your conversation is getting too deep for me, Mr. Garsworth.
I understand your metempsychosis theory all right, though I don't
agree with it; but I fail to see how you are going to arrange about
getting your own money."

"No, no!" replied Garsworth, raising his form, tall and gaunt, against
the bright light outside, "of course not; that is my secret. No one will
know--not one! Is your sitting finished?"

"Yes, for to-day."

"Come to-morrow--come to-morrow!" said the old man, coming

round to look at the picture, "no time to be lost, I may die before it's
done, and then I won't be able to see myself as I was: but Nestley
will keep me alive--good doctor--very good doctor--paid him
handsomely--yes, handsomely! Good-bye for to-day, Mr. Beaumont.
Don't forget to-morrow; I may die--no time to lose--good-bye!"

The old man shuffled tremulously out of the room, and Beaumont
stood looking after him with a puzzled smile on his lips. He began to
put his paraphernalia away slowly and talked softly to himself
meanwhile.

"I wonder if there's any sense in the old fool's ravings--I don't
believe in this incarnation rubbish--but he's got some scheme in his
head about that money--I'd like to find it out--there might be
something in it by which I could benefit--he's a madman sure
enough but still there is method in his madness--however, I'll try to
discover his secret somehow."

He lighted a cigarette and sauntered out on to the terrace, thinking

over the chances of finding out the Squire's secret with a view to
turning it to his own account. Apparently his cogitations led to some
result, for after standing for a few minutes at the end of the terrace
in a brown study, he removed his cigarette from his mouth and
uttered one word:

"Hypnotism."

CHAPTER XVI.

THE VILLAGE CONCERT.

The viols sound in festal hall

Where come the merry mummers all,
The minstrels sing their roundelay
Of doughty knights and ladies gay,
And as the carol music swells
The jester shakes his cap and bells,
While lords and dames of high degree
Approve the Christ-tide revelry
 And happy in the pleasant din
Amazed the foolish rustics grin.

The school-room was a long, old-fashioned apartment, with plain

oak walls and a high roof. The wide windows were set low down,
and when seated at their desks the scholars could look out and see
the old stone cross of the market-place and the heavily foliaged elms
that waved their green leaves in front of the queer red-tiled houses.
The walls were hung round with maps of the five divisions of the
world, and above the teacher's desk, which was set on a raised daïs,
appeared a map of the world itself. On this occasion the ink-splashed
desk of the teacher was removed and in its place stood a small
cottage piano. Dark red curtains hung down from brass rods on
either side so that the dais was transformed into a very fair stage,
while at the back decorative effect was obtained by a Union Jack
being gracefully festooned over the Royal arms, painted by the
village artist.

The desks of the scholars being immovable were left in their places,
and the audience--which comprised nearly the whole population of
the village--sat like rows of elderly pupils ready to be instructed.
Forms and desks were ranged in the centre of the room and there
was a narrow walk on either side leading down to the wide door at
the end of the building which was continually opening and shutting
to admit late arrivals and exclude a view of the festive preparations
from the penniless crowd outside who could not afford the necessary
coppers for entrance fee. Illumination was provided by six oil lamps,
three on each side, set in metal brackets, and from the centre of the
roof over the stage hung a larger lamp, while the piano was further
adorned with two weakly-looking tallow candles for the convenience
of the musician.

The school-mistress, Miss Busky, a dried-up prim-looking little

woman, who resembled a cork fairy more than anything else, had
further ornamented the bare room by wreathing round the maps and
lamps strings of coloured paper flowers manufactured by artistically
inclined pupils, and even the legs of the piano were swathed in
these tissue paper decorations. Over the stage there was also a
large placard bearing the word "Welcome" wreathed with artificial
flowers, so that Miss Busky on surveying her handiwork felt quite
content with the general effect of luxury produced by herself and her
satellites. The programme was neatly written out by the best writers
in the school, and handed only to favoured visitors as these efforts
of penmanship were few in number. The visitors themselves, red,
lusty country folk, had come from far and near to the concert, and
the little school-room was uncomfortably full, but owing to the fierce
efforts of Miss Busky, who bounced about like an india-rubber ball,
everyone was at last comfortably settled.

Mrs. Larcher and Pumpkin taking no part in the performance were

accommodated with front seats, together with many of the country
gentry, who always patronised these entertainments at the urgent
request of the vicar, who greatly believed in good feeling and
friendliness existing between the lords of the soil and their tenants.

And now amid a great clapping of hands and stamping of heavily

shod feet the popular vicar himself appeared on the stage as
chairman, and took his seat beside a small table adorned with a jug
of water, a glass and a programme.

Dr. Larcher made a short speech, ending with a quotation from his
favourite poet:

"Et thure et fidibus juvat

Placare,"

which hardly anyone understood, and then the serious business of

the evening commenced.
The concert was opened by the indefatigable Miss Busky and Cecilia,
who played a duet by a popular composer on popular airs, in which
said airs were almost smothered in variations, and blended one with
the other in a most surprising manner, for just as the audience
recognized "Rule Britannia" and had settled themselves down for an
intellectual treat the players broke off into "The Last Rose of
Summer," and thence bursting into "Auld Lang Syne," melting, amid
a perfect fire-work of runs, into "The British Grenadiers," which latter
being played with full force by four hands, the loud pedal pressed
down, brought the overture to an end in a noisy manner which
delighted the audience.

Reginald then sang "Come into the garden, Maud," but this number
evidently did not please them very much as they could not make out
what it was all about and, preferring noise to delicacy, did not
appreciate the beauty of the singer's voice. Beaumont, however, who
was present, admired the item greatly, and said as much to Mrs.
Larcher who, armed with a fan and a smelling bottle, sat next to him
fighting with "The Affliction."

"Oh yes," sighed Mrs. Larcher when she had got "The Affliction" well
under and did not feel inclined to faint, scream, or kick, or give way
to any other eccentricities which "The Affliction" was fond of doing
at unseasonable hours, "his voice is beautiful, no doubt, but so loud,
it goes through my head and rattles my nerves. I love soft songs
that soothe me--something cradle-like--a Berceuse, you understand.
I'm afraid you find me rather hard to please, but it's my affliction
and not myself. I assure you, Mr. Beaumont, that a loud voice often
prostrates me for days and leaves me a perfect object, does it not,
Eleanora Gwendoline?"

Eleanora Gwendoline, alias Pumpkin, assented with alacrity to this

remark, upon which Beaumont observed that he never should have
thought it to look at her, thereby inciting Mrs. Larcher to a weakly
spasm of coquetry for she tapped Basil feebly with her fan and said
he was a naughty man, then settled herself to listen to a glee by the
choir.

The choirmaster, Simon Ruller, a long, thin individual, in a frantic

state of excitement, having reduced his chorus to a state of abject
nervousness started them off in the glee "Glorious Apollo," and after
two or three false starts they managed to begin. Having begun, their
great aim was to get over the ground as rapidly as possible, and
they rushed it through at lightning speed, Mr. Ruller imploring them
in fierce whispers to observe the rallentando, which advice, however,
they did not take. On disappearing from the stage, chased off by the
excited Ruller, they were succeeded by Miss Cassy, attired in a
startling costume of blue and yellow.

This lady's contribution to the proceedings was a milk and water

ballad of a semi-jocular kind, called "Almost a Case," and the way in
which she leered and smirked at the audience from behind her music
in order to point the meaning of the verses, was quite alarming. She
paid no attention to time, and poor Cecilia was obliged to stop one
minute and play furiously the next in order to follow Miss Cassy's
spasmodic idea of rendering the song.

"So flippant," commented Mrs. Larcher when the fair songstress had
retired, "a great want of decorum--she makes my nerves jump."

"It's the style of song, mama," said Pumpkin generously.

"Then why doesn't she choose less hoppy music?" retorted the
matron fanning herself vigorously, "it makes me twitch to hear her.
Ah, if she only had my affliction she wouldn't sing at all."

Beaumont privately thought this would be an excellent thing for

everyone, but did not say so, knowing Mrs. Larcher to be a great
friend of Miss Cassy's.

Dick Pemberton gave a sea song with great vigour, and received
genuine applause, then Una and Reginald sang "Oh, that we two
were Maying," which the audience did not care about. The vicar then
read Poe's poem of "The Bells" in a ponderous manner, which
crushed the airy lines, and after another song from Reginald, Mr.
Ferdinand Priggs appeared to recite an original poem "My Ladye
Fayre."

Mr. Priggs was ushered in by a melancholy strain from the piano, and
placing one hand in his breast and tossing back his long hair with
the other he burst into a series of questions about the fayre lady.

"Was it a dream of sadness

That reeled my brain to madness,
Or how
Did I see her brow
With its crown of golden gladness?"

After asking these questions Mr. Priggs proved conclusively that it

was no dream, but

"A wild, weird, wandering, warning dame

Who set the ears of all aflame
With loud acclaim."

The poet treated his audience to about twenty verses of this

gruesome production, and having ended with a long sigh stood on
the stage for fully a minute. Everyone waited to hear what he was
going to say next, but the poetic Ferdinand doubled up his limp body
into what he called a bow, and slowly drifted out of sight, his legs
apparently taking him wherever they chose to go.

On the conclusion of this dismal poem the full company sang "God
save the Queen," and the concert ended amid the congratulations of
all concerned, as they decided it was a great success.

The vicar heartily congratulated the performers on the receipts, as

after paying all expenses there remained fully five pounds for the
almshouse fund, to aid which the concert had been got up.

"Where is Doctor Nestley, to-night?" asked Beaumont as they went

out.

"He had to stay with the squire," replied Una, who was leaning on
Reginald's arm, "he's not at all well."

"Nerves?" asked Mrs. Larcher anxiously, taking a medical interest in

the case.

"Oh, dear no," said Miss Cassy lightly, "though he has got nerves--so
very odd, isn't it? but this time the dear doctor says it's lungs--
something gone wrong--a kind of what's-his-name thing, you know--
if he doesn't take care he'll get that disease--so odd--something
about a moan."

"Oh, pneumonia," observed Beaumont gravely. "I hope not, it's very
dangerous, and to an old man like the squire, doubly so."

"I have had it," said Mrs. Larcher, who by her own showing
possessed every disease under the sun. "Acute inflammation of the
lungs, it left me a wreck--a prostrate wreck--did it not, Eleanora
Gwendoline?"

"It did, mama," replied the dutiful Pumpkin.

"It might come on again," said Mrs. Larcher, opening her smelling-
bottle. "I'll have a cup of hot tea when I go home, and a hot bottle
to my feet."

"I wonder she doesn't have a mustard plaster and a fly blister,"
whispered Dick to Una, "might draw some of the bosh out of her."
Una laughed, and the great lumbering barouche of the Grange
having arrived, driven by the stony Munks, she preferred to enter it,
followed by the chattering Cassy.

"So cold, isn't it?" said that lady, "quite like the North Pole. Captain
what's-his-name, you know, Parry, puts me in mind of Paris--French
style--so odd. I'll see you to-morrow, Mr. Beaumont, and oh, Mrs.
Larcher, will you come to tea next week--Thursday--what do you say,
Una? Friday, oh yes--Friday."

"If my affliction permits me," said Mrs. Larcher in a stately tone, "I
will try."

"So glad," replied the volatile Cassy, "and you come also Mr. Blake,
and of course Mr. Pemberton, not forgetting Mr. Beaumont; so very
nice to see one's friends. Oh, yes, Munks, we're quite ready, good-
night--so pleased--delightful concert--odd--very odd."

Further talk on the part of Miss Cassandra was checked by the

sudden start of the barouche, and what with the uneven road and
the worn-out springs of the coach, Miss Cassy had enough to do to
look after herself without talking.

Mrs. Larcher, leaning on the vicar's arm, walked home, followed by

Pumpkin and the three pupils, Dick chaffing Ferdinand over his poem
till that poetic soul was nearly out of his mind with anger.

Beaumont, left alone at the school-room door, lit a cigarette, and

was about to go when he heard a faint sigh behind him, and on
turning saw Cecilia and the lively Busky.

"I enjoyed the concert very much, Miss Mosser," he said gracefully
as they passed him.

"I'm glad of that, sir," said Cecilia, who looked tired, "it went off very
well. Was--was Doctor Nestley here?"
"No, he had to stay with Squire Garsworth."

The blind girl sighed again, and after saying good-night, went away
followed by Miss Busky, who bounded along in the moonlight like a
marionette.

"Poor girl," said Beaumont thoughtfully, "she loves Nestley, and

won't have the slightest chance with him, he's too much in love with
Una Challoner. By-the-way, I must see Nestley; if I want to find out
the squire's secret, I'll have to arrange matters with him--I hate
watch-dogs."

CHAPTER XVII.

ANTEROS.

Strong god thou art the enemy of gods,

A hater of blind Eros and his joys,
Thy rule is bitter as the stinging rods
That scourge at Dian's feast the Spartan boys;
Evil his soul who asks thine evil aid,
And in revenge such evil aid employs,
In sundering the hearts of youth and maid.

The Garsworth family was never a very prolific one, but the estates
had always descended in a direct line from father to son. Many a
time the race seemed to be on the point of extinction owing to the
representative being an only child, yet though the line dwindled
down to depending on one life alone for its continuity it never
absolutely died out. In the event of such a thing taking place it
would have been difficult to say who would have succeeded to the
estates, as the Garsworth family seemed to be averse to matrimony
and their connection with the county families was, to say the least,
doubtful. Besides, as there was no entail, the estates were
completely at the disposal of the head of the family for the time
being, and he could will them to whomsoever he pleased. As
hitherto son had always succeeded father, there had been no
necessity for the exercise of such a power, but now the sole
representative of the race being unmarried he was at liberty to use
his own judgment in disposing of the estates.

In the opinion of right-minded people there could be very little doubt

as to who should succeed the Squire, for Una was the next of kin.
She was the only living representative of the younger branch of the
family, being the grand-daughter of the Squire's aunt, and therefore
his second cousin. Miss Cassandra, although she constantly alluded
to Randal Garsworth as "my cousin," was as a matter of fact only a
relation by marriage, being Una's paternal aunt.

Una's parents had died while she was a child and she had been
brought up by the kind-hearted though eccentric Miss Cassy, who
sent her to Germany in order to complete her education. Miss
Cassandra, having an income of three hundred a year, dwelt in
London, where she was known among a select society of well-born
fossils who looked upon her as a mere child. Una, having finished
her education, came back to England and took up her abode with
Miss Cassy, and having an income of some two hundred a year
joined it to that of her aunt, and thus the two women managed to
live very comfortably in a small way.

On seeing Una's beauty, however, Miss Cassandra had no intention

that she should live a dismal life in a smoky London suburb, without
at least one chance of seeing the gay world and marrying as befitted
her birth and loveliness, so she wrote to Squire Garsworth on the
subject. The old man sent in reply a gracious message that Una
could come down and stay at the Grange, and that he would not
forget her in his will. Miss Cassy, not knowing the idiosyncrasies of
the recluse, saw in her mind's eye a hospitable country house full of
joyous company, so persuaded Una to accept the invitation, saying
she herself would go also. After some demur Squire Garsworth
agreed to Miss Cassy coming, and in due time, having broken up
their London home, the two ladies arrived at the Grange.

Their dismay was great at finding the sordid way in which the Squire
lived, and Miss Cassy would have promptly returned to London, only
Una, being touched by the loneliness of her kinsman, determined to
remain, persuading Miss Cassy to do likewise. So they lived quietly
at the Grange on the somewhat begrudged hospitality of the old
man, their own incomes obtaining for them any luxuries they might
require, as they certainly received nothing but the bare necessities
of life from their host.

In the mad pursuit of his delusion, Garsworth, in contrast to the

lavishness of his youth, had become absolutely penurious in his
mode of life. The large staff of servants necessary for such an
immense house as the Grange had been long ago dispensed with,
and Patience Allerby, assisted by Jellicks looked after the household,
while the stony Munks exercised a grim sovereignty over the exterior
arrangements. The Squire mostly lived in his own study, and Una,
aided by Miss Cassy, managed to make one room habitable for
themselves, but the rest of the house was given over to the rats and
spiders, becoming at last so lonely and eerie that Miss Cassy
frequently declared it was haunted.

Una having fallen in love with Reginald, was quite content in her
dreary exile, but Miss Cassy, used to the lively entertainments of the
fossilized society in London, longed to get away from the place, and
looked forward to the Squire dying with a certain ghastly eagerness,
as she thought Una would then come in for all the estates and they
could once more live London.

On the morning after the concert Miss Cassy and Una seated at a
late breakfast, were talking seriously about the unsettled health of
the Squire, who was now obviously breaking up.

"He's about seventy-three now," said Miss Cassy thoughtfully, "I'm

sure he can't live long.

"My dear Aunty!" replied Una in a shocked tone, "how can you talk
so?"

"Why not?" retorted Miss Cassy indignantly. "He's not much use
alive. I'm sure he'd be more use dead."

"Why?"

"Because you'd get his money and we could go back to dear

London."

"I don't want his money," said Una with great spirit, "and certainly
don't care about speculating on cousin Garsworth's death to gain it.
I wonder at your doing so, Aunt."

"Well, I'm sure, Una," whimpered Miss Cassy, producing her

handkerchief, "you are so odd--I only meant to say I'm tired of this
place--it is dull--now isn't it? I need excitement, you know I need
excitement--and after me bringing you up. I always dressed you
beautifully--real lace--and kept you so clean. I always had your
nerves attended to--you blame me now--I want to see you rich--it
isn't odd--wishing to see you rich, and I'm so dull here; really Una,
you are unkind--quite crushing--I'm only an ivy--oh, why wasn't I
married? there's nothing for one to cling to--you don't want me to
cling."

"My dear Auntie," said Una with a smile, "you are so sensitive."

"Ivy," sobbed Miss Cassy, "nerves--mother's side--you've got none--

so very odd."
"I don't want you to think of the Squire dying, it won't benefit me at
all."

Miss Cassy removed her handkerchief and gasped:

"Quite ten thousand a year--he can't take it away--you're his only

relative--no one could be so odd as to leave it to a what's-it's-name
asylum or a cats'-home."

"I don't know whom he'll leave the money to," said Una deliberately.
"I certainly ought to get it, but you know the Squire's delusion about
re-incarnation--you may depend his will is mixed up with the idea,
how I don't know--but there will be some trouble at his death."

"Such an idiot he is," groaned Miss Cassy, "quite eccentric--

hereditary--I've seen it in you--bad blood you know--it's in all old
families--our family was always sane."

To prove which sanity Miss Cassy arose from the table to go to her
room, and placed the tea cosy on her head to protect her from cold.
The eccentric lady walked to the door talking in a broken fashion all
the time.

"I'm sure I don't want his money--small income but sure--yes--but

it's so dull--I love London--I can't blossom here--I'm like a cabbage--
in Town I expand--such nice amusements--Madame Tussaud's and
the Crystal Palace--so exciting--it's food--food--oh, dear me, Dr.
Nestley is this you? how is my cousin? better?--so glad--it's very
odd, isn't it? I mean it's not odd I'm glad--no--quite so--oh, you
want to see Miss Challoner--yes--good-bye just now," and Miss
Cassy, with the tea cosy perched on her head, disappeared, leaving
Nestley alone with Una.

The young man was not looking well, as his ruddy colour had given
place to an unhealthy paleness, his skin had a flaccid appearance
and his countenance wore an anxious, haggard expression. His eyes
glanced restlessly round the room looking at everything except Una,
and he moved his hands nervously. Even in his voice there was a
change, for in place of his former bold confident tones he now spoke
in a low hesitating manner.

"I just came to tell you the squire is better, Miss Challoner," he said
in an agitated voice, keeping his eyes on the ground.

"It's very good of you, doctor," she replied courteously. "I hope he
will become quite strong again."

"I'm afraid not, his body is worn out and has not strength enough to
resist disease--of course, now he has only a slight cold, but any
chance exposure may affect his lungs seriously and if pneumonia
sets in I'm afraid he will have no chance."

"What is to be done?" she asked anxiously.

"I cannot do more than I have done, he must be kept quiet and
warm. I've persuaded him to take some strong soup which will do
him good--in fact I think his ascetic manner of living has had as
much to do with his ill-health as anything else."

"I hope he will get well," said Una earnestly, "if he would only
change his mode of life I'm sure he would get well."

"Yes," the young man answered absently, "of course, exactly," he

hesitated a moment then burst out in despair, "Then I would have to
go away."

Una looked at him surprised at his evident emotion.

"Of course we would be very sorry to lose you," she said quietly,
"but you, no doubt, would be glad to get back to your home."

"No--I would not," he said passionately, coming a step nearer,

"because you would not be there."
"I?"

Una Challoner rose to her feet in amazement at his words.

"I?" she repeated in a puzzled tone. "What have I to do with your

movements?"

"Everything," said the unhappy young man with a gesture of despair.

"When I came here a short time since I was perfectly happy--I had
conquered all the evils and sorrow of my youth, and my life was a
pleasant one, but since I saw you all is changed. I can think of
nothing but you--morn, noon, and night, I see you before me--morn,
noon, and night, I only hear your voice."

He looked at her defiantly and saw her standing silent and indignant
before him.

"Can't you understand?" he burst out again rapidly. "I love you--I
love you! from the first moment I saw you I loved you--I want you
to be my wife, will you be my wife Una."

Miss Challoner felt perplexed--this man had only known her a

fortnight, she had spoken very little to him, yet here he was asking
her to marry him in a vehement, masterful manner which roused
within her all the pride of womanhood.

"What you ask is impossible, Doctor Nestley," she said coldly and
deliberately. "I have only known you a fortnight and--beyond this I
am ignorant of your life in every way. I never dreamed that you
would speak to me in this manner."

"Then you don't love me?" he cried in despair, "You cold perfection
of womanhood, you don't love me?"

Una would have replied indignantly, but she began to see the
nervous excitable temperament of the young man and recognised
that, being under the influence of a strong emotion, he was not
answerable for the way in which he spoke.

"No," she replied gently, "I cannot love you, Doctor Nestley--even if I
did, I could hardly respond to your passion after so short an
acquaintance; come, doctor, you have been worn out by your nightly
attendance on my cousin, you are not well and speak without
thinking, forget the words you have spoken and let things be as they
were."

It was a gracious thing of her to say, for, in spite of his evident

earnestness, she felt indignant at the manner in which he had
spoken to her.

"Things can never be as they were," he replied dully. "I have seen
you and that has changed my whole life--is there no chance?"

"There is no chance," she replied coldly, and turned away to intimate

the interview was over. Even as she did so, he sprang forward with a
fierce light in his eyes.

"You love another," he hissed out between his clenched teeth.

Una turned on him in a dignified way with her eyes blazing with
anger.

"How dare you speak to me in this manner?" she said wrathfully. "Do
not try my patience too far--I have given you an answer to the mad
words you spoke--now go."

She pointed to the door with a commanding gesture and the young
man drooping his head on his breast, moved towards it.

"You don't know what you are doing," he said in a dreary voice. "You
are destroying my life; whatever evils now drag me down, it will be
your fault."
"A cowardly speech," she said in a clear, scornful voice; "because
you cannot get the toy you long for you speak like a child. I have
nothing to do with your life, if you yield to evil it will be through your
own weak will, not through any fault of mine--not a word," she went
on as he was about to speak; "leave me at once and I will try and
forget what you have said."

He tried to look her in the face, but seeing her standing tall and
straight as a young Greek maiden, with nothing but scorn and
condemnation in her eyes, he turned away with a sigh, and letting
his head fall on his breast walked slowly out of the room, careless of
what happened to him now that he had placed all his chances on the
casting of a die--and lost.