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CURRENT AFFAIRS FOR CSS 2023

BY ZEESHAN ZAFFAR

DOMESTIC TOPICS:
1) SPECIAL ECONOMIC ZONES and CPEC II
2) ENERGY CRISIS of PAKISTAN and ALTERNATIVE ENERGY RESOURCES
3) HYBRID WARFARE AND WAYFORWARD
4) HYDRO-POLITICS IN SOUTH ASIA
5) NATIONAL DISASTER MANAGEMENT AND RECENT FLOODS
6) STRATEGIC SIGNIFICANCE OF PAKISTAN
7) CENTER-PROVINCE RELATIONS UNDER 18th AMENDMENT
8) APPRAISAL OF E-COMMERCE IN PAKISTAN
9) FOREIGN POLICY OF PAKISTAN: PRINCIPLES AND DETERMINANTS
10) ACCOUNTABILITY FRAMWORK IN PAKISTAN
11) ECONOMY OF PAKISTAN: CHALLENGES AND WAY FORWARD
REGIONAL TOPICS
1) FOREIGN POLICY APPROACHES FOR AFGHANISTAN
2) PAK-AFGHAN RELATIONS UNDER TALIBAN REGIME
3) REGIONAL INTERGRATION PROPSECTS AND CHALLEGES
4) IRAN IN SCO: PROSPECTS AND CHALLENGES
5) REIMAGINING IWT
6) RUSSIAN SOUTH ASIAN POLICY
7) US POLICY FOR SOUTH ASIAGLOBAL DOMAINS
GLOBAL DOMAINS
1) NATIONAL SECURITY STRATEGY OF THE US
2) IRAN NUCLEAR DEAL
3) GLOBAL ENERGY CRISIS
4) GLOBAL ECONOMIC CRISIS
5) RUSSIA-UKRAINE CRISIS
6) CHANGING GLOBAL ORDER and POWER ALLIGNMENT
7) THE GREAT GAME AND PAKISTANI PERSPECTIVES
8) CLIMATE CHANGE AND CLIMATE JUSTICE: COP26 and COP27
9) TAIWAN CRISIS
10) INDO-PACIFIC: COOPERATION AND CONFLICTS
11) IPEF, AUKUS, QUAD
12) THE UNITED NATIONS AND 21st CENTURY

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DOMESTIC DOMAINS
Special Economic Zones and CPEC II
OVERVIEW OF CPEC
1) Envisaged in mid-2013.
2) China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), launched in 2015.
3) It is a “game changer” for the country’s ailing economy.
4) a set of projects under China’s Belt and Road Initiative, marks a new era of economic ties in
a bilateral relationship.
5) Historically defined by security cooperation.
Overview:
CPEC, which comprises loans, investments and grants that could grow to around $60 billion,
travels a 2,700km route.
Start: Arabian Sea Port of Gawadar, in Baluchistan
Climbs: Karakoram Highway Through Khunjrab Pass in Gilgit-Baltistan Ends: Kashghar,
XinJiang Region

Projects within Pakistan:

1) Economic and Development Projects
a. Transport infrastructure
b. Industrial Development
c. Energy Infrastructure and Development
d. Modernization of Agriculture
e. Development of Telecommunication
f. Expansion and Development of Market

SPECIAL ECONOMIC ZONES

Definition: SEZ is a specific area of the land used to promote industrial growth in a country by
providing more lenient economic and tax policies as compare to general economic policies in a
country
1) Special Economic Zones (SEZs) and industrialisation are among the key areas of
cooperation, and possibly the most critical for economic growth and job creation.
2) Special economic zones were integral to China’s 1980s economic reforms.
a. subject to free-market and export-oriented policies
3) For CPEC, Pakistan’s GSP+ access to the EU will likely attract Chinese investors and
Producers
4) If Pakistani producers and labour benefit, the zones, coupled with pro-export and growth
reforms, could indeed create opportunities for Pakistan.
Facts:
1) According to International Labor Organization (ILO)
a. 1986: 176 SEZs in 47 Countries
b. 2006: 3500 SEZs in 130 Countries
c. 2021: 5800 SEZs in 159 Countries
2) World Bank:
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a. 150 Countries with 5000 SEZs

b. 68 Million Jobs
c. $500 billion Trade Related Value Addition within SEZs
3) China:
a. 1750 SEZs in 2009
b. SEZs in China accounts for
i. 22 % National GDP
ii. 46% FDI
iii. 60% Exports iv. 30 Million Jobs
4) Special Economic Zone Framework: Act in 2012, Amended in 2016 based on the
development model through Public Sector, Private Sector, and Public-private partnership
Industrial Zones in Pakistan prior to CPEC are 60 CPEC II
WHY SEZs in CPEC?
1) Industrial development is considered as one of the most reliable strategies to promote
long run growth of an economy.
2) Nine Special Economic Zones
a. transit corridor for intraregional connectivity from Central Asia to the Gulf
b. Revival of Economy with direct financial benefits
c. China transformed itself on the same model from agriculture-based economy to
second largest global economy with SEZs
d. SEZs to become success stories need;
i. Stability in politics
ii. Security
iii. Energy
iv. Skilled labor force
v. Coordinated transportation 3) SPECIAL ECONOMIC ZONES:
a. GILGIT BALTISTAN
i. MOQPONDASS
ii. Industry: Minerals, Fruit, Steel and Leather Industry iii. Marble , Granite, Iron Ore
b. KPK
i. RASHAKAI, Nowshera
1. Industry: Textile, Food , Fruit and Knitting
2. unique strategic advantage to serve the consumer markets of
Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Punjab, Southwest China, Afghanistan, and
Central Asia
ii. Mohmand Marble City, Ex FATA
1. Industry: Stone Development c. Kashmir
i. Mirpur Industrial Zone d. Islamabad
i. ICT Model Industrial Zone 1. Industry: IT
e. PUNJAB
i. Allama Iqbal Industrial City, Faisalabad
f. SINDH
i. China Special Economic Zone
1. Dhabeji enables raw material import and finished goods export to
Port Qasim( 8km)
2. ML-1 Junction
ii. Pakistan Steel Mills Industrial Park g. BALUCHISTAN
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i. Bostan Industrial Zone

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1. Industry: Motor bike Assembly, Electric Appliance , Agriculture

machinery, pharmaceuticals, Ceramic ,and Food processing
2. Qila Saifullah (famous livestock, fruits, and vegetables)
3. Ziarat (famous for dry fruits, apple and grapes)
Challenges
1) - Geopolitical and security risks.
2) The restraints of natural and geographical factors
3) Restraints to economic growth prospects
4) Energy, infrastructure, administration and governance deficiencies
5) Unskilled Human Resource and Technological backwardness

RECOMMENDATIONS FOR THE POLICY MAKERS OF ISLAMABAD

AND BEIJING

1) Islamabad Should ensure that priorities and long term goals address the economic and
political interests of country
2) Build Political consensus on the Projects including promotion of debates in national
legislature-inject democratic spirit and consensus orientation in national and provincial
legislature
3) Consult economists, local market via chamber of commerce, the business council of
Pakistan, trade associations
a. Address and incorporate their concerns in new framework of CPEC Special Economic Zones
4) Financial inclusion of local labors of Eastern, Western and Central Routes and ensure labor
protection
5) Consult with local constituencies and devise compensation and resentment plan for all
stake holders
6) Security of Chinese is paramount , for this integrated centralized security with coordination
and information sharing with all security agencies is required
7) Private property right protection to encourage FDI
8) Reforms in Land Use Policy and Labor Laws
9) Ensure Economic activities are primarily driven by market forces
10) Advancement in production Techniques and Innovative Environment
11) Controlling Internal Rent-Seeking of Industrialists
a. All the incentives given under the framework of CPEC should be tied clearly with
the efficiency perspectives
12) Solving Coordination Problem between Provinces
13) Only favorable political structure and geo-political position can ensure the success of CPEC,
regional connectivity, and improved infrastructure

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Energy Crisis and Alternative Energy Resources

Importance of Energy: Energy is arguably one of the most important inputs for economic
growth to sustain industrial and commercial activities
Introduction: Given the socioeconomic impacts of energy, optimal planning for sustainable
energy is imperative. Achieving a sustainable energy mix and ensure an uninterrupted energy
supply requires the development of a medium and long-term planning framework comprising a
“future energy demand forecast” followed by “energy resource management.

Energy Sources: Energy sources (oil, coal, natural gas, liquefied natural gas (LNG), liquefied
petroleum gas (LPG), and electricity
. Pakistan, having less than 1 percent share in world energy consumption, meets its energy
demand through imported and indigenous resources.
Source 1990 2000 2020
Electricity 13 15 17
Oil 52 52 31
Coal 5 12 19
LPG 1 1 2
Natural Gas 26 32 43

Generation Capacity: 43,267 MWs in July 2022 from 37,26 in the same period 2021, showing a growth
of 3.6 percent..
Hydro Generation: The hydro generation has increased its share in energy mix by 26 percent to 9,874
MWs

1) Electricity on RLNG: Likewise, electricity based on RLNG has jacked up by 199.66 percent to 7,325
MW.
2) The electricity based on RFO (residual furnace oil): Share in the energy mix at 16.84 percent, which is
equal to 6,274 MW
3) Coal Based Electricity: Coal based electricity share stands at 12.80 percent with 4,770 MWs
4) Electricity by Natural Gas: The share of electricity generated by natural gas stands at 12.15 percent,
which is equal to 4,529 MWs.
5) Electricity by Nuclear: 6.68 percent that stands at 2,490 MWs
6) The electricity generated by wind has its share in energy mix of 3.31 percent that is equal to 1,235
MWs.
7) Electricity through solar stands at 1.07 percent with 400 MW and through biogas has share of 0.98
percent that stands at 364 MWs.

1) Statistics shows that final energy consumption in Pakistan increased from 12 Mtoe in
1986 to 52.17 Mtoe in 2022
2) Pakistan’s total primary commercial energy supplya is around 80.62 Mtoe, which
includes indigenous resources (46.56 Mtoe) and net imported energy resources (34.06
Mtoe).
3) The primary energy supply consists of 33.1 percent natural gas, 22.6 percent oil, 18.2
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percent coal, 14.5 percent electricity derived from hydro, nuclear, renewable, and
imported power, 10.3 percent imported liquefied natural gas (LNG), and 1.3 percent
liquefied petroleum gas (LPG)
4) Of the transformation usage (28.45 Mtoe), 2 percent is auxiliary consumption by the
energy sector; 65 percent is transformation consumption by gas processing plants,
petroleum refineries, and electric power stations; 21 percent is transmission and
distribution (T&D) losses; and 12 percent is energy consumption for non-energy uses
(fertilizers, feedstock, lubes, etc.) and statistical difference.
Access to Electricity: Thirty million people in Pakistan (about 15% of the population) lack
access to electricity
Energy Consumption Category: (domestic, commercial, industrial, etc.)
Energy consumption has been demonstrated to increase relative to population growth and
industrial and economic development in many under-developed countries
China: 21% US: 16% India: 6% Russia: 5%
Sector-wise GDP: (agriculture, industrial, and services) Energy Sector of Pakistan:
Pakistan’s power industry encompasses:
1) electricity generation
2) transmission,
3) and distribution
Structure of Energy Sector:
The sector has been served by two vertically integrated entities
1) the Water and Power Development Authority (WAPDA), which was established in 1958 a.
except Karachi , and K-Elec( 1913)
Structure of electric power sector
The Ministry of Water and Power has recently been divided into the Ministry of Energy,
responsible for development of power resources, and the Ministry of Water Resources,
responsible for water resources in the country. The Ministry of Energy (Power Division) handles
all issues related to electricity generation, transmission, distribution and pricing, exercising this
function through respective organizations. It also performs specific functions such as
coordination of power sector plans and formulation of policies and specific incentives, and
liaises with provincial governments on all related issues.
The following entities are major stakeholders in the electricity sector of Pakistan.

Public Sector Generation Companies (GENCOs)

There are four GENCOs operating in Pakistan. Jamshoro Power Co. Ltd (GENCO-I) has one
plant with a generation capacity of 880 MW. Central Power Generation Co. Ltd (GENCO-II),
with a total generation capacity of 1790 MW, has four generation plants. Northern Power
Generation Co. (GENCO-III), with a capacity of 2061 MW, includes three generation plants and,
finally, Lakhra Power Generation Co. Ltd (GENCO-IV) has only one coal powered plant in
Lakhra with 150 MW capacity.
Pakistan Water and Power Development Authority (WAPDA)
WAPDA is responsible for planning and execution of large hydropower projects. At present,
WAPDA operates at 9389 MW hydroelectric capacity.
Pakistan Atomic Energy Commission
PAEC is responsible for planning, implementation, operation and maintenance of nuclear power
plants. At present, a total of 2530 MW of nuclear capacity is installed, comprising six nuclear
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power plants: KANUPP (originally 137 MW, de-rated to 100 MW), CHASNUPP-1 (325 MW),
CHASNUPP-2 (325 MW), CHASNUPP-3 (340 MW), CHASNUPP-4 (340 MW) and KANUPP-
2 (1100 MW). The second unit at the KANUPP-2/KANUPP-3 site, which is under construction,
has the same installed capacity of 1100 MW and will be operational by April 2022.
National Transmission and Dispatch Company
NTDC is responsible for constructing, operating and maintaining the electricity transmission
infrastructure of the country, which comprises transmission lines of 220 kV and 500 kV and grid
stations linking all power plants of the country. It also provides services to the distribution
companies in the design and construction of 132 kV transmission lines and grid stations.
Private Power and Infrastructure Board
PPIB provides support to the private sector in implementing conventional power generation
projects, including hydropower projects with a capacity of more than 50 MW. In Pakistan, 41
thermal independent power producers (IPPs) with a total installed capacity of 17 642 MW and 8
hydro IPPs with a total installed capacity of 472 MW are operational.

Alternative Energy Development Board

AEDB is responsible for promoting and facilitating the development of renewable energy
resources in Pakistan. As of June 2020, 24 wind power plants with a total capacity of 1248 MW
are operating. Twelve more wind power plants with a total capacity of 610 MW are under
construction [3, 4]. Furthermore, 530 MW of installed capacity based on solar power and 369
MW based on bagasse is operating in the country.
Regulators
1. National Electric Power Regulatory Authority
NEPRA is responsible for: (i) granting licenses for the generation, transmission and distribution
of electric power; (ii) determining electricity tariffs for the consumers, transmitters, distributors
and producers; and (iii) prescribing and implementing performance standards for generation,
transmission and distribution companies.
2. Pakistan Nuclear Regulatory Authority (PNRA)
PNRA is responsible for granting licenses to all nuclear installations in the country, including
nuclear power plants. The authority formulates and implements effective regulations to ensure
safe operation of all nuclear installations, including nuclear power plants.
3. Indus River System Authority (IRSA)
IRSA is responsible for regulating and monitoring the distribution of water sources of the Indus
River in accordance with the Water Accord amongst the provinces. The Indus River hosts all
major domestic hydropower plants.
Power Sector and Private Entities
Power sector to private investment via the 1994 Power Policy
1) created the Private Power and Infrastructure Board to implement the new energy policy
2) The policy was followed by the 1995 Hydroelectric Policy, which was designed to
encourage investment in hydropower generation
3) In 2006, the government announced the Renewable Energy Power Policy to encourage
energy development from renewable sources to achieve 9,700 MW of renewable power
within the energy mix by 2030
Regulation and Reform
1) The government established the National Electric Power Regulatory Authority (NEPRA) in
1998
2) NEPRA is tasked with regulating all sector aspects—including issuing generation,
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transmission, and distribution licenses; and determining the generation, transmission, and
distribution tariffs of electric power at various levels (production, transmission, and
consumption)
De-Centralization of Energy Institutions
1) 2007, WAPDA was split into two entities—WAPDA and Pakistan Electric Power Company
a. WAPDA’s mandate has been to develop and operate water resources, including
hydropower, and it manages about 6,600 MW of the country’s hydroelectric
powerInstalled Capacity:
Challenges of Energy Sector
1) Unbalanced energy supply and demand
a. negative impacts on operational cost, network safety, and the service quality of the
supply network
b. Underestimation of energy demand can affect a society’s overall economy, energy
resources, power outages, and daily life
c. overestimation of energy demand may lead to overbuilt, unused capacity and
wasted energy resources, and financial losses.
2) Imprudent use of natural gas for industrial captive power and transportation
3) Extremely high dependence on imported fuels
4) High transmission and distribution losses
a. unreliable T&D infrastructure for both electricity and natural gas
5) Circular debt
a. Prolonged payable days across the energy value chain are commonly known in
Pakistan as circular debt
b. Unsustainable circular debt eroding sector financial sustainability, crippling
governance, and cutting infrastructure improvements
6) Financial Deficit
a. Cost of energy delivery (generation + transmission + distribution) > revenue
received (net actual recovery + unfunded subsidies)
b. Gap between generation cost, tariffs, subsidies, and recoveries
c. High dependence on imported fuels with high generation cost
7) Governance / Institutional Deficit
a. Lack of systems for competitive procurement of energy
b. Minimal use of technology and metering to check system losses
c. Lack of integrated sector master planning
8) Infrastructure Deficit
a. Irregular auction of oil and gas exploration rounds
b. Unsustainable technical and commercial loses
c. Aging infrastructure and fewer maintenance funds
d. T&D infrastructure mismatch
9) Regulatory / Policy Deficit
a. Poor incentives for hydrocarbons
b. Lack of provincial consensus on projects sequencing
c. Limited focus on energy efficiency and conservation
Way Forward:
1) Demand Forecasting
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a. Energy forecasting is required for efficient energy planning to balance supply and
demand
2) Improvement in Energy Governance
3) Integrated Energy Policy
4) Green Energy to meet the future needs
5) Improvement in Energy Efficiency and conservation
6) Improvement in Energy Delivery Mechanism

HYBRID WARFARE AND WAYFORWARD

Quote: “War never achieves its absolute because war is never an isolated act: war does not
consist of a single short blow: and in war the result is never final.”
(Clausewitz, On War, 1780-1831)
Origin of the Concept: The concept of Generations of Modern Warfare (GMW) was
formally introduced in 1989 by United States’ military scholars William Lind.Since then, five
generations of warfare have been defined and further explained by international academia and
military thinkers across the globe.
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Definitions:
a. Decentralized form of warfare as it is characterized by blurring lines between war and politics,
combatants and civilians, being a long term and complex warfare.
b. Fifth-generation warfare (5GW) is warfare that is conducted through military
action:
i. such as social engineering,
ii. misinformation,
iii. cyberattacks,
iv. Along with emerging technologies such as artificial intelligence and fully
autonomous systems. Tools:
a. “Perceptions, information, propaganda, and “fake news” are all tools in this ostensibly modern
form of warfare.”
How it Works?
a. Exploitation of domestic fault lines (like political, economic and societal) is the main
target of 5GW.
b. The incremental approach that is followed is designed to gut a state from within.
c. The hardware of real war and tools of so-called “fifth-generation”, “hybrid”, or
“grey-zone” wars is that the former are weapons but the latter must be
weaponised – and that too with the connivance and cooperation of the target.
d. The basic idea behind this term is that in the modern era, wars are not fought by
armies or guerrillas, but in the minds of common citizens

5GW and Pakistan

a. The adversary is targeting Pakistan from within through extremists and terrorists as
proxies for thousands cuts strategy

b. After the overt nuclearisation of Pakistan, any conventional war adventure will be
too costly for our adversaries. Fighting Hybrid War against Pakistan under the
rubric of nuclear weapons has become preferred strategy by our adversaries

Recent Events or Facts

a. Brussels-based organisation EU DisinfoLab published an investigative report titled
Indian Chronicles
b. 15 years in 116 countries, featuring more than 500 fake media outlets and a dozen
fake NGOs. This network endeavoured to push a pro-India and anti-Pakistan
narrative in the European Union and the United Nations

Strengths and Weakness of Pakistan

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a. Geo-strategic location and relevance for regional/global agendas

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b. An awakening civil society

c. An independent and assertive judiciary
d. An essentially working democratic structure with optimism in its functionality
e. An elaborate security apparatus(3 paradigms (national, international, human) with
credible conventional( and unconventional deterrence capabilities
f. A well-developed infrastructure and an industrious human resource
g. Economic potential and abundant natural resources awaiting realization

Fault Lines in Pakistan

a. Countrywide will and cohesion
b. Declining economy and its negative impact on masses
c. Overly personalized political discourse
d. Radicalization / extremism and sub-nationalism
e. Religious, social, economic and ethnic divide and deteriorating human security
situation
f. Absence of a well-defined National Security Management System

Recommendations.
• Short Term Measure
i. Unveil A Multilateral Intelligence-Sharing Mechanism
1. Pakistan needs to immediately propose that all of Afghanistan’s
neighbors (Iran, the Central Asian Republics, and China) and Russia
share their antiterrorist intelligence with one another
ii. Make a Case at the United Nations
1. The purpose behind this to utilize this global platform to inform the
world about its forthcoming actions (or recently conducted strikes if
this step takes place after the fact).
iii. Evolution of National Strategy must take place side by side through evolving
trends of war-fighting
iv. Institutions need to evolve mechanisms which will produce constant

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feedback and independent think-tanks are best suited for the task.
Some of the more pertinent think tanks for geo-strategic and defence policy making are:-
1. Applied Economics Research Centre (AERC)
2. • Institute of Policy Studies (IPS)
3. • Institute of Regional Studies (IRS)
4. • Institute of Strategic Studies (ISS)
5. • Islamabad Policy Research Institute (IPRI)
6. • International Growth Center (IGC)
7. • Pakistan Academy of Sciences
8. • Pakistan Institute of Developmental Economics (PIDE)
v. • Pakistan Institute of International Affairs (PIIA)
vi. • Pakistan Institute of National Affairs (PINA)
vii. Some key goals to be set against vulnerabilities
viii. National Cohesion , Political Stability , De-radicalization of the masses,
ethno-religious harmony , and ensuring provision of justice ix. Awareness at Grass Root Level
x. Projection of Military Engagements and Execution of Aggressive
conventional military operations
xi. Relocation and Re-organization of CPEC projects of Mid and Long terms
with consensus of all stake holders

MID TERM GOALS

i. War Fighting Concepts
ii. Economic and Financial Reforms
iii. Development of Communication infrastructure for information as close to
real time as possible
iv. Technological advancement c. Long Term Measures
i. Improvement in the Foreign Relations
ii. Intelligent perception management and media alliances with regional and
global media
iii. Information control using regulation laws and instruments of

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communication with national interests without compromising independent media status

iv. Utility of Think Tanks and Narrative Culture
v. Improvement of Psycho-Social environment vi. Provision of General Capabilities to
Institutions
10) War is a moral contest, they are won in temples long before they are ever fought” Sun Tzu,
Art of War

HYDRO-POLITICS IN SOUTH ASIA

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Food Security of Pakistan

Definition: “Ensuring that all people at all times have both physical and economic access to the
basic food that they need”

“Availability at all times of adequate world food supplies of basic foodstuffs to sustain a steady
expansion of food consumption and to offset fluctuations in production and prices”

“Food security [is] a situation that exists when all people, at all times, have physical, social and
economic access to sufficient, safe and nutritious food that meets their dietary needs and food
preferences for an active and healthy life”

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In 1986, the highly influential World Bank report “Poverty and Hunger” “access of all people
at all times to enough food for an active, healthy life”.

The 1994 UNDP Human Development Report promoted the construct of human security,
including a number of component aspects, of which food security was only one.

The 1996 World Food Summit adopted a still more complex definition:
“Food security, at the individual, household, national, regional and global levels [is achieved] when all
people, at all times, have physical and economic access to sufficient, safe and nutritious food to meet their
dietary needs and food preferences for an active and healthy life”

Origin of the Concept:

Food security as a concept originated only in the mid-1970s, in the discussions of international
food problems at a time of global food crisis.

Food security exists when all people, at all times, have physical, social and economic access to sufficient,
safe and nutritious food which meets their dietary needs and food preferences for an active and healthy
life. Household food security is the application of this concept to the family level, with individuals within
households as the focus of concern.

Food insecurity exists when people do not have adequate physical, social or economic access to food as
defined above.

Food security is a multi-dimensional phenomenon. National and international political action

seems to require the identification of simple deficits that can be the basis for setting of targets,
thus necessitating the adoption of single, simplistic indicators for policy analysis. Something like
the “State of global food insecurity” analysis has to be undertaken. Since food insecurity is
about risks and uncertainty, the formal analysis should include both chronic sub-nutrition and
transitory, acute insecurity that reflects economic and food system volatility.

Status of Food Security in Pakistan:

According to the Food Security Assessment Survey (FSA), 18% of the population in Pakistan is
undernourished. National Institute of Population Studies (NIPS) reported high level of severe
stunting (45%), wasting (15%) and underweight (30%). The malnourishment problems are high
in rural areas (46%) and in certain regions like FATA (58%), GB (51%) and Baluchistan (52%).

Factors affecting Food Security: Domestic, Regional, Global factors are responsible for
food insecurity in Pakistan
1) High population growth,
a. >2% Population growth
2) Rapid urbanization,
a. Disturbed food balance cycle and increased demand supply gap
3) Low purchasing power,
a. Poverty, inflation affects the PP of an individual
b. This varies in different parts of the country
4) High price fluctuations,
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a. Crisis at international level such as RUSSIA-UKRAINE CRISIS, OIL CRISIS

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b. Policy mismanagement (Domestic)

5) Erratic food production,
a. Orientation of agricultural activity by the people
b. Uneven contribution of
i. Rabbi and Kharrif seasons
c. Policy level issues
d. Mismanagement
i. farmer level, policy level
e. Soil condition
i. Flood irrigation
ii. Dry seasons
iii. Urban flooding
f. Loss in arid able land
i. Climate change
ii. Migration
iii. Urbanization
iv. Industrialization
v. Environment pollution
6) Climate Change
7) Limited economic access of the poorest and most vulnerable to food (social condition)
8) Increase in the prices of essential food items
9) Inefficient food distribution systems
10)Recent Floods in Pakistan

Major Challenges of Food Security in Pakistan.

I. INCREASING focus on dietary diversity, nutrition and healthy food I

I. ENHANCING the level of affordability for nutritious food by the poor segments of the society
III. IMPROVING the quality, quantity, and timing of supply of agricultural inputs
IV. DEVELOPING Infrastructure and technologies for post-harvest management and value
addition
V. IMPROVING the rate of diffusion of technological innovations
VI. INCREASING farm gate prices, reducing price fluctuations and managing declining
international prices
VII. ADDRESSING Market infrastructure requirements and trade restrictions viii. Sustainable use
of natural resources (land, water, rangelands, pastures, and forests)
VIII. CAPITALIZING the potential of mountain agro-ecological zones
IX. MITIGATING AND ADAPTING to climate change effects on agriculture and livestock
X. MAINSTREAMING women contribution in value added agriculture and family nutrition
XI, ENHANCING non-farm income opportunities, particularly in the marginalized and remote
areas (i.e., mountains and deserts)
XII. PROMOTING innovative livelihood practices, i.e., medicinal plants, fisheries, bee-keeping,
local food products, seed production, rural poultry, and raising nurseries etc.
XIII. IMPROVING per unit animal productivity and managing endemic livestock diseases
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XIV. EFFICIENT utilization of land and water resources

XV. SECURING qualified human resources for food security and food systems analysis

Recommendations:

1) For balanced food intake, there is a need to focus on the production of diverse foods, i.e.,
vegetables, fruits, nuts, oilseed, pulses, and livestock products: these not only contribute
around 50% Of Dietary energy, but also significantly contributes in nutritional food security.
2) The harmonization of non-agricultural activities, such as those related to nutrition, trade,
natural resource management, non-farm income opportunities, targeted income support, and
other innovative options within the agriculture sector, are also recognized as important steps
in achieving food security.
3) Pakistan needs to build strong resilient agriculture sector to cope with the climate change
risks.
a. Agricultural reforms
b. Pipe Revolution
c. Deserts and Mountain’s productivity
d. Reservoirs
e. Management of available food in Pakistan
f. Adopting soil and water conservation technologies,
4) Enhanced use of high efficiency irrigation systems
5) developing drought resistant varieties, and introducing climate smart agriculture
6) Management of inter-provincial trade in difficult times
7) Coordination among public and private sector to improve market efficiency
8) State level policy for vulnerable classes

STRATEGIC SIGNIFICANCE OF PAKISTAN: CHALLENGES AND WAY

FORWARD

INTRODUCTION:

Pakistan is situated at the doorway to:

1) Oil –rich countries of the Middle East
2) Natural resource supplier of Central Asian Countries
3) Largest market of China and India
4) Blue economy of Indian Ocean

Analysis of Past due to Strategic Location:

1) Security challenges
a. Eastern neighbors
b. MDAA with US
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c. Alignment with US against Soviet GWOT

d. Role of India since
i. Strategic partnership pact of India and Afghanistan in 2011
e. Sanctions on Iran and India’s role in Iran
f. Spillover of Afghanistan crisis
2) Domestic Challenges that hampered progress
a. Political instability
b. Religious, ethnic divide
c. Population growth
d. Center-province relations
e. Institutional imbalances
f. Remained embroiled in external and internal challenges
3) Regional Dynamics of South Asia and 21st Century
a. Flash point of Great Rivalry, status-quo and power politics
i. Since last four decades
b. Change in strategic interests of US since 2003
i. Post US-exit from Afghanistan
c. Policy of Containment and South Asia
i. Pakistan’s geography was and is central to this FP approach of US
d. Hasty Exit of US left Insecurity, humanitarian crisis in Afghanistan with Spill over on
Pakistan
e. Indo-US strategic engagements in South Asia
f. US sanctions on Iran
g. Evolution of Russia’s FP in South Asia
i. Balanced FP towards SA states
h. Rise of China and its economic engagements with SA states
i. Emergence of Tri-lateral Relations i.e. Iran-Pak-China
j. Emergence of Non-traditional security with dark cloud of territorial and resource
conflicts in the region
i. Pak-India 1. IWT
ii. Pak Afghanistan
1. Water Conflicts
4) Challenges for Pakistan due to these Dynamics and its Geography
a. Maintaining bi-lateral relations with US, China, and Russia
b. Ensuring Strategic stability and balance of power in South Asia
c. Neutrality in the Cold war 2,0 when it is Containment policy of US towards China
d. Ensuring peace and stability in Afghanistan after US Exit
e. Balancing US-India strategic engagement with the help of powers i.e. China or Russia
or both
f. Establishing independent relations with Iran to pursue economic approach with
geography
g. Continuity of CPEC to ensure economic progress without any external influence and
pressure from Western World
h. Mitigating and adapting climate change policy
i. Pursuing shopkeeper diplomacy with India and Afghanistan over the common issues
j. Continuing of the support for Kashmir since India’s uni-lateral act
k. Preservation of image-responsible state free from social and cultural ills to promote
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positives of geography

Way forward to Ensure the Prospects associated with geo-strategic location

l. Pro-active FP with risk assessment and policy analysis

m. Reliance on domestic resources for the strategic stability
n. Islamabad shall ensure independent approach and avoid geo-strategic for the political
gains
o. Islamabad must seek for CRM and CBM with India on bi-lateral or multi-lateral
approach while inviting arbitrator
p. Islamabad shall exploit the opportunities given by SCO when Iran is going to be a
permanent member to avoid backlash
q. Islamabad must pursue rational actor model with KSA and Iran and avoid status-quo
politics in the region
r. Improvement in domestic indicators
i. Macro-economics and micro-economics
ii. Center-provinces relations
iii. Political culture
iv. Wellbeing of the individual v. Human security
s. Geo-economics is need of the time , no need to change the orientation
t. Climate mitigation and gender equality to harness the potential of geography and
human resource

Future of Pak-Afghan Relation: In the post Kabul Fall or after the

Resurgence of Taliban.

Afghan Taliban and Pakistan: (convergences and divergences) –past analysis –paragraph
a. Pre 1979 era and post 1979 era
b. Post WOT(2001)
c. Role of Pakistan in Afghan Peace Process
d. Analysis of Pak-Afghan relations ---- 2 paragraph
i. Diplomatic
ii. Political
iii. Economic
iv. People-people
e. Importance of Afghanistan and Pakistan --- 1 paragraph

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i. Geostrategic importance
ii. Geo economic
iii. Geo Politic
f. Regional dynamics: challenges and Prospects ---------- Drivers’
g. What is the Foreign Policy of Pakistan towards Afghanistan in Taliban’s Regime?

Future of Pak-Afghan Relation- Major header

a. Situationary Analysis of Afghanistan:
b. Volatile situation in Afghanistan in Post-US exit ( 15 August 2021) …after interafghan peace
process
i. Instability -as the previous regime flee
ii. Humanitarian crisis and civil war – projection
1. 95% of Afghan people are striving for 2 times food
iii. World’s institutions and global powers along with regional powers are
hesitant to recognize afghan government under Estrada doctrine( recognition of governments)
iv. Responsible units of International relations are supposed to come forward
to save the humanity from the crises.
v. Immediate neighbors and Muslim World is next to this responsibility.

vi. Pakistan since its independence tried to maintain cordial relations with
Afghanistan as per the aspirations of Father of Nation and article 40 of 1973
constitution ( FP) despite few irritants from the Afghanistan including the illogical claims of
Durand Line(irritant) .
vii. History of Pak-Afghanistan Relations
1. Afghanistan was the only country to vote against Pakistan’s admission to UN
2. In Pakistan, Dir, Swat and KP the then NWFP had witnessed the skirmishes from Afghan
Nationalists

a. 1949,1961,1973-1992,2007
b. They prevented to establish normalized relations
i. What was the point of conflict?
1. 1893 British and Afghanistan had Duran Line Agreement
2. No political interference beyond the line
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3. 1919 it was reaffirmed (Afghan Treaty of 1919)

4. Pakistan inherited the Durand Line agreement after its independence
(claims are illogical)
c. 1955, Pakistan’s embassy in Kabul and consulates Kandhar and Jalalabad was attacked
by the Afghanistan’s mob
d. 1961 severely disturbed
e. 1979- Afghanistan in December 1978 secured an agreement with Soviet to send forces
in Afghanistan.
i. Refugees in Pakistan
ii. Pak, US,Iran,KSA in the context of Cold War supported anti-soviet elements
iii. 1989 Soviet left
iv. Taliban came as a power in Afghanistan
v. 1989-2001 ( Pakistan had cordial relations with Taliban)
vi. 2001 WOT
vii. 2004, Taliban started insurgencies viii. US established ANSF
ix. Internal conflicts between Afghan govt and Taliban
x. 2007 Pakistan and Afghan National Army had a conflict
xi. 2011,2014
c. Afghan Peace Process(2001-2021)
i. 2001 Bonn Peace Process

ii. Establishment of ISLAMIC REPUBLIC OF AFGHANISTAN replacing

ISLAMIC EMIRATE OF AFGHANISTAN (2004)
i. Feb 2020 , US signed an agreement with Taliban
1. Nine rounds
2. Khalilzad, Afghan representative, Regional countries, Afghan Govt. envoys
from neighbors and international organization
3. Agreement:
a. Prevent terrorist groups from using Afghanistan as a base for attacks
(Challenge and concern)
b. Political Settlement for the future of Afghanistan (concern and
challenge)
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4. It was the start of Intra-Afghan Peace Process

2) Pak Afghanistan in Post Kabul Fall: Challenges and Prospects
a. History shows Pakistan aspired for the cordial relations with Afghanistan within
Taliban or without Taliban
b. Afghanistan being the brethren Muslim country is important part of Islamic nations
c. Afghanistan is a sovereign nation state as per Montevideo convention’s article 1
d. Be it afghan war or WOT, Pakistan hosted 4 million Afghan refugees
e. Pakistan was the highest provider of Capacity building to Afghan
f. Pakistan always recognized the potential of Afghanistan
g. Pakistan hosted Extra-ordinary Summit of OIC in 2021 December
h. Pakistan, during Foreign ministers meeting on Afghanistan with the neighboring
countries
3) Challenges after Fall of Kabul
a. Territorial integrity---maintenance
b. Afghan-led Afghan owned intra afghan process ---ensure
c. Bilateral cordial relations in the changing regional scenario
d. Recognition of Taliban government despite positive past
e. To bring peace, stability and national reconciliation in Afghanistan –Pakistan’s role
(FP)
f. Inclusive government in Afghanistan so that both can harness the friendly policies
towards each other
g. Role of Spoilers another challenge
h. Importance of international agreements on Afghanistan
i. Afghanistan’s refugees with the economic woes in Pakistan
j. Insurgents role in Afghanistan’s volatile situation
k. Technical assistance, medical assistance and humanitarian assistance are the need
of Afghanistan…. To continue this is a challenge
l. Socio-economic development, preservice of infrastructure with the help of regional countries
4. a. Prevent terrorist groups from using Afghanistan as a base for
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attacks( Challenge and concern)

b. Political Settlement for the future of Afghanistan ( concern
and challenge)
xi. It was the start of Intra-Afghan Peace Process
2) Pak Afghanistan in Post Kabul Fall: Challenges and Prospects
a. History shows Pakistan aspired for the cordial relations with Afghanistan within
Taliban or without Taliban
b. Afghanistan being the brethren Muslim country is important part of Islamic nations
c. Afghanistan is a sovereign nation state as per Montevideo convention’s article 1
d. Be it afghan war or WOT, Pakistan hosted 4 million Afghan refugees
e. Pakistan was the highest provider of Capacity building to Afghan
f. Pakistan always recognized the potential of Afghanistan
g. Pakistan hosted Extra-ordinary Summit of OIC in 2021 December
h. Pakistan ,during Foreign ministers meeting on Afghanistan with the neighboring
countries
3) Challenges after Fall of Kabul
a. Territorial integrity---maintenance
b. Afghan-led Afghan owned intra afghan process ---ensure
c. Bilateral cordial relations in the changing regional scenario
d. Recognition of Taliban government despite positive past
e. To bring peace, stability and national reconciliation in Afghanistan –Pakistan’s role
(FP)
f. Inclusive government in Afghanistan so that both can harness the friendly policies
towards each other
g. Role of Spoilers another challenge
h. Importance of international agreements on Afghanistan
i. Afghanistan’s refugees with the economic woes in Pakistan
j. Insurgents role in Afghanistan’s volatile situation
k. Technical assistance, medical assistance and humanitarian assistance are the need
of Afghanistan…. To continue this is a challenge
l. Socio-economic development, preservice of infrastructure with the help of
regional countries
4) Prospects
a. Convergence with the current setup
i. Geo-strategic, geo-economic, geo-political- regional security and Domestic
security (Prospects)
ii. Peacebuilding is on the cards in Afghanistan iii. Peace in western side of Pakistan
iv. Peace within the KP and former FATA
4. Prospects
a. Convergence with the current setup
i. Geo-strategic, geo-economic, geo-political- regional security and Domestic security
(Prospects)
ii. Peacebuilding is on the cards in Afghanistan
iii. Peace in western side of Pakistan
iv. Peace within the KP and former FATA
v. Economically, Afghanistan provides transit for Energy 1. CASA, TAPI
vi. Politically, respect for sovereignty from the Afghan side towards Pakistan
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vii. Societally, People of Afghanistan had always had cordial relations with
Pakistan
viii. Diplomatically, recognition of Durand Line
5) Prospects depend on the Role of Foreign Policy Pakistan
a. Foreign Policy must follow the geo-economics
b. It must be pro-active
c. Continue the role played in last six months
d. Engage the regional and global powers
e. Maintain the bilateral with US, Russia and China
Engage international organization to recognize the politically accepted role of Taliban by the
Inter-Afghan Peace process immediacies

Appraisal of Rising E-commerce Industry of Pakistan

E-commerce
E-commerce: The Use of internet in Commerce (Sale and Purchase) and its transactions It
involves in those areas where (Sales and Purchase of Goods exist)
Covid-19 as an event proved to be a catalyst.
Proficiency and Efficiency of ONLINE MARKET….
Spread and Availability of IT Infrastructure
It emerged as a major contributor of the economy…So is the case of Pakistan….
Glance at Pakistan for the favorable environment of E-commerce
1) 60% of the population (under 30)
a. It is suitable for the E-commerce
2) Emergence and rise of Private Sector in Pakistan
a. Education with ICT
b. Support for IT Sector in Pakistan
I. CPEC provides infrastructure

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3) Fact Sheet:

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A. 76% increase from 2019 to 2021 in merchant registration

i. 1700 in 2019
ii. 3000+
b. 36Th largest market for the e-commerce
c. Revenue: $6Bn in 2021
d. World wide growth E-commerce is 15% and Pakistan has contributed 45% in that 15%
i. Reference: Statista-a German Company deals with Market and Consumer data
1. $7.6Bn is expected revenue in 2022
2. Annual growth is projected at 7% till 2025
a. $9.5Bn in 2025
4) E-commerce in Pakistan
a. It is in Pakistan since 2001
i. Business to Consumer
b. In 2022
i. B2C, B2B
c. Sectors of E-commerce in Pakistan
i. Three Sectors
1. General e-commerce
2. Quick e-commerce
3. Fashion e-commerce
d. Verticals of E-commerce
i. There are five categories of E-commerce in Pakistan
1. Retail market place
a. Daraz
2. E-ticketing
a. Bookme
3. Role mailing
a. Careem/Uber
4. Classifieds
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a. Rozee
b. Olx
5. Takeaway
a. Food Panda
5) Opportunities offered by E-commerce
a. Expansion of Economy
i. Volume of GDP
b. Trading system for a developing nation i.e Pakistan as a major contributor
c. Employment Opportunities
i. Women
ii. Men
1. 130 million in next 30 years
2. Without any discrimination of gender/class/color
3. It is skill conscious model not status conscious model
d. It is providing opportunity to establish digital foot print in the age
of Industrial revolution 4.0
e. It can provide space to other sectors of economy with its
integrating mode
6) Challenges faced by this sector
a. Absence of Digital Regulation
b. Absence of Strategic and ICT orientation in Public Sector
universities
c. Absence of IT infrastructure and Telecom Services in Remote Areas
i. Baluchistan
ii. KP
iii. Interior Sindh
iv. GB
v. South Punjab
d. Cyber Security and Data Security
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i. National Security Policy 2021

e. Unskilled Workforce for the Verticals of E-commerce
i. The Operations of E-commerce
ii. Focus needs to be adjusted in Educational Sector at HSSC and Graduation level
f. Monopoly of several companies hinders the progress i. Lack of competition as a challenge
emerged
1. State and institutions are supposed to play the role to provide healthy competition with
their policies
g. Low Digital Literacy is another Challenge
i. 88% Pakistani have access to internet
1. Use of e-commerce is low in comparison with this access
h. Low market share of e-commerce
i. Its share is 2% in market
7) Available Policy Measures in Pakistan related with E-Commerce
a. Policy of E-commerce 2019
i. Features of the policy
1. To secure and spread the platform
2. Improvement in security of payment infrastructure
3. Public awareness
4. Taxation agenda to include the merchants in tax net
5. Extending IT infrastructure
6. Integration of E-commerce with Businesses
7. Inclusion of women in this sector
8) Measures needed to Improve this E-commerce Sector
a. Holistic Implementation of E-commerce Policy
b. Enhanced and efficient domestic market to ensure competition
c. Introduce support mechanism for small scare enterprises to end monopoly
d. Integrate this concept in Education Curriculum of Schools/colleges and Universities
e. Support Startups i. Case Study: India

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f. Ensure the Enabling Environment for E-commerce

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i. Women inclusion
ii. Youth participation
g. Digital representation of the economy is required to enhance the scope of economy
h. Private-Public partnership to help the growth of E-commerce
i. Policy level reforms for three steps
i. Right infrastructure
ii. Secured regulations
iii. Policy incentives of e-commerce to increase the share in market
9) Conclusion

Main challenges faced by the economy of Pakistan:

Balance of payments crises: Pakistan has had frequent balance of payments crises and has had
to be bailed out by the IMF multiple times. This is caused by a persistent trade deficit due to
weak exports and strong imports.
Depreciating currency: The Pakistani rupee has depreciated significantly since 2000. This has
contributed to inflation and made imports more expensive, exacerbating the trade deficit.
Stagnant manufacturing and exports: Manufacturing and exports have stagnated in Pakistan,
which is a major contributor to the trade deficit.
Low investment: Pakistan has low levels of investment, which has contributed to weak export
competitiveness, stagnant manufacturing, and low technological innovation.
Unfavorable regulatory environment: The government regulations and policies in the country
make the business unfavorable to the investors which in turn restrict the growth of the industries.
Frequent power outages: Power outages are common in Pakistan, which makes it difficult for
businesses to operate and contributes to weak export competitiveness.
Poor logistics: Pakistan's infrastructure and logistics are not well developed, which makes it
difficult to transport goods and increases the cost of doing business.
Political uncertainty: Political uncertainty and instability in Pakistan can discourage investment
and make it difficult for businesses to plan for the long term.
Fragile public expenditure management: Weak public expenditure management and revenue
collection system makes it difficult to balance the budget and invest in infrastructure and social
services.
High population growth: High population growth rate puts pressure on resources and makes it
difficult to improve living standards and reduce poverty.

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Climate change effects: Pakistan is one of the countries which is facing the direct and indirect
effects of climate change that adds to the economic challenges faced by the country.

INFORMAL ECONOMY AS A CHALLENGE

1) The informal economy in Pakistan is a challenge because it undermines the formal
economy, reducing tax revenues, and making it difficult to enforce labor laws and
regulations.
2) It makes it difficult to gauge the true size and performance of the economy, making
economic planning and policy-making more difficult.
3) Informal sector reduces the incentives for businesses to formalize their operations and
pay taxes, which in turn makes it more difficult to fund public goods and services like
education and healthcare.
4) The informal sector can also undermine the competitiveness of formal businesses,
particularly small and medium-sized enterprises.
5) Informal economy makes it difficult to create new jobs and to attract foreign investment.
6) Informal sector also leads to unrecorded transactions and transactions in cash which
makes it difficult to track the financial flows and increase the chances of illicit activities
like money laundering and terror financing.
7) Informal sector does not provide the same level of labor protection and social security
that formal jobs do, and it may leave workers vulnerable to exploitation, abuse and lack
of benefits.
8) In the informal economy, working conditions can be very poor, with little or no health
and safety protections and no legal rights or remedies for workers who are mistreated or
fired.
9) Informal workers are often not covered by social security systems and are therefore not
able to access public services, such as health care and pension, leading to financial
vulnerability.

Pakistan's economic growth rate has been consistently lower than India's since the 1990s

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Despite a higher population growth rate, Pakistan's per capita income is now a third lower than
India's
Pakistan has had frequent balance of payments crises and has been bailed out by the IMF five
times since 2000, while India's last IMF program was in 1993
The gains from IMF programs in Pakistan were short-lived and did not address the underlying
issues causing the crises, such as weak exports and strong imports
Between 2000 and 2022, the Pakistani rupee has depreciated significantly, manufacturing and
exports have stagnated, investment has fallen, real wages have remained flat, and debt has risen.
A growing proportion of public resources is now needed for debt servicing, leaving little room
for physical infrastructure, education and health expansion, and climate change preparedness.
The economic management challenge is two-fold: reducing the current account deficit and
building up reserves is relatively easy, but addressing the structural issues causing frequent
spikes in the current account deficit is more challenging.
Pakistan's persistent trade deficit reflects stagnant manufacturing, poor export competitiveness,
and unfavorable regulatory environment, frequent power outages, poor logistics, and political
uncertainty
Large inflows of remittances have sustained overvaluation of the rupee, skewing relative prices
in favor of imports and fueling a consumption boom
Correcting the persistent fiscal deficit requires addressing long-recognized fragilities in public
expenditure management and revenue collection, such as poorly targeted subsidies and low taxes
on agriculture and wholesale and retail trade.

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To make sustained progress towards economic recovery, there is a need to:

1. Strike an agreement among major political parties on uninterrupted core structural reform
of the economy. Reforms should include:
o Adopting a prudent fiscal stance by making public expenditure more productive
and equitable, especially energy and public enterprise subsidies; implementing a
non-discriminating tax regime across individuals and economic activity;
correcting misallocation of expenditure and revenue between the federal and
provincial governments following the 18th amendment; addressing the growing
burden of domestic debt; and ensuring compliance with the Fiscal Restraint and
Debt Limitation Act
o Ensuring a manageable trade deficit by adopting productivity-enhancing
technology to make domestic production more competitive, and attracting much
higher than current levels of investment in exports
o Enacting a supportive institutional, regulatory and monetary policy stance,
including a market determined exchange rate
2. Step back from the ongoing highly charged political confrontation between the leading
political parties to reach a cross-party agreement on the core structural reform; there are
lessons to be learned from the Indian experience on scaling back political discord to
allow a reform consensus to emerge.
3. Take a three-pronged stakeholder management approach:
o Incentivize the powerful elites who currently enjoy huge rents to switch to
investment patterns consistent with the new structure of the economy by
maintaining a consistent policy framework and eschewing any backdoor deals that
slip in exemptions and thus deviate/distort from the framework; recognize
achievements and give social status to exporters and large tax payers
o Engage with the judiciary so that legal challenges to the structural shift are met
successfully
o Strengthen data analytics capabilities to conduct an informed public debate on the
needed change

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4. The national security framework recognizes the critical importance of putting the
economy on the path of sustainable growth, and that muddling along with frequent
balance of payments crises has eroded Pakistan’s standing in the world, making it harder
to protect national interests. Accordingly, Pakistan should set up, as part of the national
security framework, a formal review mechanism to ensure that key reform milestones are
being met and that progress on these would be a necessary condition for government’s
longevity.
5. Negotiate with multilateral development banks that a country committed to the first three
requirements must have the fiscal space to stay the course on protecting the poor and
sustaining a robust public investment program to support growth, create jobs for the
rapidly growing population and prepare for the fallout of global warming.

Way forward for the Economic Challenges: A Long Term Plan

There are several recommendations that can be made to address the economic challenges faced
by Pakistan:
o Improve exports competitiveness: The government should take steps to
improve the competitiveness of Pakistan's exports by investing in infrastructure,
logistics, and technology. This can be done by providing subsidies to exporters
and setting up special economic zones that offer tax incentives and other benefits
to businesses.
o Increase foreign investment: The government should take steps to attract foreign
investment by improving the business climate and offering tax incentives and
other benefits to investors.
o Address energy shortages: The government should work to address the energy
shortages that plague Pakistan by investing in new power generation and
distribution systems, and by encouraging private sector investment in renewable
energy.
o Improve public expenditure management: The government should work to
improve public expenditure management and revenue collection by implementing
more effective budgeting and accounting systems, and by cracking down on
corruption and tax evasion.
o Encourage the formalization of the informal economy: The government should
take steps to encourage the formalization of the informal economy by simplifying
regulations and providing incentives for businesses to register and pay taxes.
o Improve the regulatory environment: The government should improve the
regulatory environment by simplifying the process of doing business, reducing
red tape and bureaucracy, and making regulations more transparent and
predictable.
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o Invest in education and human capital: The government should invest in

education and human capital by increasing funding for schools, universities, and
vocational training programs, and by providing scholarships and grants for
students.
o Tackle the issue of debt: The government should work on ways to reduce its
debt and should come up with ways to make it sustainable.
o Address poverty and inequality: The government should take steps to address
poverty and inequality by implementing policies that create jobs and provide
access to basic services like education, healthcare and clean water.
o Promote Climate Resilience: Pakistan's government should work on promoting
climate resilience, by investing in disaster preparedness and response, building
resilience of communities and implementing policies to reduce carbon emissions.
o Improve governance: Government should improve governance, by
implementing reforms that will make institutions more efficient, effective and
accountable.

Accountability Framework in Pakistan: Challenges and Way Forward

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NAB AMENDMENT BILL

“It is wrong and immoral to seek to escape the consequences of one’s act”
Mahatama Gandhi
Definition of Accountability by the United Nations:
“It is an obligation to: demonstrate that work is in accordance with the laws; report fairly
and accurately vis-à-vis mandated roles”
Importance of Accountability:
1) It is one of the most important pillars of good governance
2) It is the most important input to ensure checks and balance
3) It is crucial for independence and autonomy of the institutions
4) It not only ensures the service delivery but also improves the human conditions
a. Service delivery is the aim of governance
b. Improvement in human conditions is the reality of development
5) It helps in growth of democratic institution
Accountability Modes in Pakistan
1) Vertical or internal/within the system
2) Horizontal or checks and balance
Framework of Accountability in Pakistan
Since 2010: Pakistan in CPI rankings stood beyond 100+ ranking out of 180 countries Academic
Perspective of accountability:
1) Financial or economic
2) Interest based practices
3) Personal gains
4) Bribery
5) Extortion
6) Fraud
7) Embezzlement
8) Trafficking
9) Kick-backs
10)Deceptions
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11)Illegitimate business dealings

12)Cronyism along nepotism and favoritism
13)Manipulation of power
14)Exploitation of given roles
15)Breach of integrity
Pakistan has inherited, enacted or established almost all laws, rules and institutions Stats of
Framework of Accountability in Pakistan:
1) The Prevention of corruption act in 1947
2) The Pakistan Penal Code of 1860
3) National Accountability Ordinance in 1999
4) Two Anti-corruption authorities
5) Federal investigation Agency
6) Four Anti-corruption Establishments ( ACEs)
7) The Central and Provincial special courts (1958)
8) Public Procurement Regulatory Authority (PPRA)
9) Public Accounts Committees( PCAs)
10) Judicial Commission
11) Auditor General
12) District Accounts Committees
13)Securities and Exchange Commission
14) 12 Independent Institutions of Ombudsman(Mohtsab)
Analysis: Complex web of institutions, laws and authorities
Brief Performance Summary of Accountability framework in Pakistan
1) Politicization of the system
a. Ref: Governing the ungovernable
2) Politicization of the politics
a. Ref: Role of Judiciary in Pakistan
3) Politicization of the Judiciary
Analysis: Politicization Triangle

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4) Accountability institutions lack;

a. Set of three variable
i. Responsibility
ii. Ethics to conduct the business iii. Morality to be responsible
1. Chief institution is NAB b. Functional Approach of the institutions
i. Ensured internal and external accountability
1.However in Pakistan
a. Bureaucracy, Parliament, and executive do not like this
c. Toothless institutions such as NAB, ECAs and FIA i. History:
1. NACs 2000, NAO 1999) ii. NAB Bill 2021- 2022
1. Federal government should have the power to appoint
accountability judges with consultation of CJ of HC
a. Previously, President had the powers
2. Extended the service of Prosecutor general
a. Can be by three years
i. Section 16 of NAO
3. Ended the surveillance of NAB authorities
a. NAB is without wings and coordination
4. Restricted the jurisdiction of NAB
a. Above 500 Million
b. Positive impact: Innovation and decision making at Bureaucratic level was eroded due to this
jurisdiction of NAB
5. Limits the role of Chairman
a. Chairman cannot ask for the documents other than case in hands
6. Puts Bar on the Banking and Financial Surveillance
a. Above 2 million transactions
7. It cannot look at the case without calling or intimating person involved
Analysis: Pros:
1) It will end the politicization of the system

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a. Chief and Primary institution cannot be a single entity i. In complex governance model
1. Single entity is to make a political one
Cons:
1) Amending NAB bill without introducing reforms in Bureaucracy and other
institutions and authorities will halt the progress
Way forward:
To control systemic corruption, system needs to be fixed and to do this , following suggestions
might help
1) Ensure internal accountability within
a. Judiciary
b. Parliament
c. Bureaucracy
2) Introduce Two Way Model
a. Stringent accountability law but within the parliament
b. Independent agency to enforce
3) Ensure the Principle of “Right to Information Act”
4) Provide ‘Means’ to people, societies, and segments
a. Digital
b. Theoretical
c. Rights
d. Roles
5) Devolve the authority at possible level
a. Local Governments
6) Coordination of independent body with the parallel institutions is must
a. Success Story or Case Study: APG’s AML
7) Responsibility comes with the Will to act
a. Ensure the institutional will while introducing the incentives
i. Whistle-blower
8) Case Study: Hong Kong model of 1974

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a. Independent commission against corruption (ICAC)

b. Public/Private domains are under its jurisdiction
c. It also serves the principle in elections
d. Department of Justice is there to ensure the obligation and responsibility
i. Rank: 16th/180 in CPI by Transparency International
Conclusion
Corruption and terrorism are two factors eroding the progress of institutions and societies.

Fall Outs in National Disaster Management: Way Forward

Definition of Disaster:
UNDR: Serious disruption of the functioning of any society/community

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1) It involves complete scope of the society

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a. Humans
i. Gender
ii. Groups
b. Material Scope
i. Infrastructure
ii. Organizations
iii. Institutions
c. Economic
i. Sectors
1. Agriculture
2. Industrial
d. Environmental
2) It exceeds the ABILITY the AFFECTED COMMUNITY/SOCIETY
a. To deal with IT within their own sources and resources
Disaster: Vulnerability (Economic, Material, Social, Psychological) +Hazard ( Source) / Ability
Vulnerability is natural as well as man-made.
Hazard is natural and man-made. Ability: Strength, resilience, availability of the resources and
the policy Disaster Management:
1) How WE Deal with the Scope of Disaster
2) How WE deal with the impacts of Disaster
3) How WE prepare for
4) How WE Respond to the Disaster
5) How WE Learn from the effects of major failures during dealings with the Disaster

Diagram of Disaster Management:

1) Preparation
2) Mitigation
1. DISASTER

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1. Recovery

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2. Response
Types of Disasters
1) Natural
International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies
a. Geo-physical
i. Earthquake, Tsunami, Volcanic Eruption
1. Oct 2008 Earth Quake
2. 1930 Earth Quake in Quetta
b. Hydro-logical
i. Floods
1. Recent Floods in Pakistan
a. Flash Flood
b. Torrential Floods
c. Climatological
i. Extreme Temperatures, Wildfires, Drought d. Biological
i. Disease Epidemics, Pandemics, Plagues 1. Covid-19
1) Character of the Natural Disasters :UN office for Disaster Risk Reduction
a) Magnitude
b) Intensity
c) Duration
Man Made Disaster/Anthropogenic Types Reason: Event Initiator
1) Environmental Degradation
2) Pollution
3) Accidents
a. Chernobyl
b. AI (Expect)
c. Hazardous material
COMPLEX EMEREGENCIES
Definition: It is the combination of different Disasters Man Made+Natural
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Example: Recent Floods in Pakistan

1) Floods in Pakistan:
a. Flash Floods/Hill Torrents
b. Koh Suleman( Area/Region) Received rain due to certain reasons( natural, or climate
change) and this region became vulnerable due to hazard(rains) and these two took the ability of
the region to store water and save society
c. In KP,
i. Blocked Water Ways(natural , created)
ii. Infrastructure development
iii. Deforestation
iv. Natural sinks disturb
v. Absence of reservoirs
1. Dams
2) Food Insecurity
3) Armed Conflict
a. Russian Ukraine Crisis may leads to WWIII
Why these are also known as Disasters
1) Loss of Life
2) Violence
3) Displaced People
4) Damage to Economy
5) Damage to infrastructure
6) Increased Security Risks
NATIONAL DISASTER MANAGEMENT AUTHORITY
1) Executive Body of National Disaster Management Commission (2010)
2) Lead agency at federal level to deal with WHOLE SPECTRUM OF DISASTER
3) NDMC (Apex Policy Making Body)
Role:
1) It deals with Disaster management activities

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2) It engages all stake holders

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a. INGOs, NGOs, UN agencies , Armed Forces, Ministries, Departments

3) It conducts one Window operations
4) It Ensures recovery
5) It responses the EVENT
6) It works on SIX PRINCIPLES
a. Preparedness
b. Mitigation
c. Risk Reduction
i. Economic
ii. Material
iii. Human Loss
iv. Environmental
d. Relief operation
e. Rehabilitation
i. Ensures the functioning of the society to its original position
before the crisis
How it works and ensures these activities?
1) National Disaster Management Plan*****
Structure of The NDMA
1) Policy Formulation level a. NDMC
i. Executive arm i.e. NDMA
ii. Stake Holders
1. INGOs, NGOs, UN Agencies,
2. Department, Ministries 2) Enabler Level(Provincial Level)
a. PDMCs
i. Executive arm i.e. PDMA
ii. Stake Holders
3) Implementation Level
a. DDMAs

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Challenges/Fall outs Try to understand this equation: Disaster=Vulnerability + Hazard/Ability

Fall Outs are easy to determine from this and they are:
1) Institutional Level a. NDMC
i. Policy Level
1. Technical Shortcomings
2. R&D
ii. Seriousness level at policy
1. It is absent in all major sectors
a. Health
b. Industrial
c. Agriculture
d. Water policy
i. Water ways of Hill Torrents
ii. Storage of Flash Floods
2) Economic Level
a. Lack of Resources for Preparation, Mitigation and Recovery
3) Ability Level
a. Capacity building of PDMCs and DDMAs
4) Vulnerability Level
a. Division of the society
i. Human
ii. Economic
iii. Material
iv. Environmental
b. Development of the Provinces
i. Serious Lag in Infrastructure
1. Example: Maranj Dam( PC-1)
2. PATA Regions
a. D G Khan and Rajanpur
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ii. Administrative Falls outs at Divisional Level

5) Hazard Level
a. We have changed these disasters into Complex Emergencies
i. We are facing worst form of environment degradation
impacts
ii. Lack of Capacity has made the event more disastrous iii. History of Different Administrative
Regimes
1. In 1970s Five Years Plan Pakistan ignored the long term
events and their impacts on society
2. Example: Since the partition , River management
authority and canal management authority are missing
the lead
iv. Water Policies ignored the facts of Disasters and their
management in different policies 6) Societal Level
a. Irresponsive attitude towards geographies, resources and roles i. SWAT River:
What needs to be done?
a) Hazard reduction
b) Reduction of Vulnerability
a. Devolved DMAs with capacity building
b. HR, Technical , Research
c. Strategic Vision of each sector
d. HEC & Universities
c) Increase the ability
a. Coordination at federal level
b. Strengthen the Policy institute and planning
i. Engage all stake holders in mid term and long term plans
devising
c. Improvement in Implementation
d. Engage consultants

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i. Environment
e. Infrastructural development and Town Planning
f. Provide aid to the society and protect the vulnerable with social
protection plans
i. To have resilient societies
g. AI Driven NDMA, PDMAs
i. SUCCESS STORY: NCOC in Covid-19
Conclusion:

REGIONAL DOMAINS

RUSSIAN SOUTH ASIAN POLICY

Russian South Asia Policy: Past, Present and Future
Structure of the Topic:
Foreign Policy of Russia in South Asia(Region)
Determinants of the Topic:
1) Foreign Policy

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a. Approaches

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i. Estrangement
ii. Etente
1. Clash of interest leads towards tense relations iii. Détente
1. Convergence of interests leads toward relaxed relations i.e.
cooperation iv. Pragmatism
v. Balanced approach in case of the region if the region is divided in more
than two poles
2) Foreign Policy of Russia
a. History
b. Contemporary
c. Factors determining the Russian course of Action
i. Political
ii. Economic
iii. Security
iv. Strategic
3) South Asia
Russia: Central Asia, Eurasia, Europe ,1917( Since Russian Revolution, Russia Projected Global
Dominance i.e. Communism…......... in cold war ……)

Russian Foreign Policy phases in South Asia:

1) 1947-1953
a. Estrangement
2) 1954-1971
a. Camp Politics
i. Mortan Kaplan’s Six Principles
1) Bi-polarity
a. Tight and Loose
ii. Aligned states
iii. Non-Aligned states
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b. Engagement
i. Major Was with India
1. Economic
2. Political
3. Security
4. Strategic
ii. Minor Was with Pakistan
1. Political
2. Social
3. Economic
3) 1971-1991
a. Global Feature
i. Détente between cold war rivals i.e. the US and USSR 1. 1968-1979
b. Pak-US Strategic Alignment
c. Indo-Centrality in Russian Approach of FP
4) 1991-2014
a. Disintegration of USSR
b. New World Order
c. Economic Liberalism
d. Uni-lateral age
e. Pragmatism
i. Mikhail Gorbachev
1. Glasnot
2. Perestroika
5) 2014-2022
a. Decay of Liberal World Order
b. Rapprochement of Russia and China
c. Rapprochement of Russia with CARs
d. Relevance of Geo-economics in 21st century
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e. Balanced Foreign approach adopted by Russia towards South Asia

Evaluation of the Region i.e. South Asia
1) Historical Crossroad
a. Ancient silk route
b. Crossroad of civilizations
i. Budhism
ii. Hinduism
iii. Orthodox
iv. Muslim
c. As a Geography
i. Route
d. Interests of Colonial Empires
i. Britain
e. Geography of Competition
i. Russia versus Britain
f. In Terms of Resources
2) Modern Times
a. Since the Decolonization
b. 11 States
c. 25% Population
i. Power
d. Two Nuclear States
e. 4500+ KM Coastal zone
f. Geography of modern Competition
g. Geostrategic resource
i. India, Pakistan, Afghanistan
h. Carries modern energy means
i. Lithium
ii. Nuclear
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i. Second Largest Population

j. 4th Largest economy
k. Provides Transit
i. Crossroads of modern civilizations and means of development
l. Offers wide range of adoption for the global and regional power
i. Space of
1. Geo-politics
2. Geo-economics
3. Geo-strategic
Russian Foreign Policy approach since the Disintegration of USSR
Most Important Variables or Themes to Understand the Domain
1) Disintegration of USSR
a. Great Communist Regime was Eroded
b. End of Cold War
c. Emergence of Strategic culture
i. Identity and ideology is important in States’ behavior
d. End of arms race and technological race
e. End of ideological confrontation
f. Transformation of global order
i. Multi-polarity to uni-polarity
g. First President: Yelstin
i. Atlanticism
1. Balanced and cooperative relations with West
a. Also with Previous western allies
i. Pakistan
ii. 1993 visit of India
1. Bi-lateral agreement signed
2. Replaced Indo-soviet Treaty of 1971
iii. Evolution of Pragmatism in Russian FP
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1. Ending of Isolation
2. Be part of international society
3. To ensure stability and security
4. Pursue economic modernism
iv. Means of FP in Russia
1. Exploration of the opportunities in the regions
a. South Asia
2008 Dmitry Medvedev
c. Transparent approach towards
i. Opened space of bi-lateral
ii. Economic instrument
iii. Indian engagement with the US
1. US Af-Pak
2. US security agreements with India since 2003
Pakistan as a KEY REGIONAL PLAYER
2012: Putin
i. Russian FP in South Asia
ii. Announced Visit in Pakistan
iii. First ever Military engagement in 2014
iv. Russian Defense Minister visited Pakistan v. Mi-35M
vi. Military-technology as a cooperation beyond SCO j. Putin and India
i. S-400 , BrahMos missiles 600
ii. Changed military balance equation in South Asia 1. Apprehension
k. Ukraine Crisis
i. International Reaction 1. Sanctions
l. Turn To Asia mode of FP in Russia
i. Tri-lateral and Quad relations in the region
m. Russia as a Revisionist state
n. Russia in South Asia emerged as a Political option
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i. Afghan Peace Process 1. Moscow rounds

o. Imran Khan Visit to Russia
Analysis:
1) Lenses of Politics
a. Russia in past as a USSR
i. Global competition in cold war
b. Russia as a balanced option in conflict resolution mechanism
i. Past: Tashkent
ii. Present: Afghan Peace process
c. Options for Pakistan, India and Afghanistan i. Mediation
d. Pak-US strategic lens is also there
2) Lenses of Economics
a. Central Asian Resources of Energy
i. Import is the need of South Asia
ii. Export is the aspiration of Russia
b. Century of Pipelines
i. Energy deficit at global level
c. Russia-Iran-China-Pakistan i. BRI
1. CPEC, CHAHBAR
2. SCO
d. Options for South Asia
i. Energy Demands
ii. Infrastructural deficits can be removed
3) Lenses of Strategic
a. Location of Russia and South Asia converge on Global Strategic dominance and
equation
b. QUAD, Tri-later relations to exploit this feature
i. Options for South Asia and it also offers challenges
Challenge: Balanced relations maintenance?

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Lenses of Regional Dynamics

a. Russia is a missed train for most of the South Asia states including Pakistan
b. With her Balanced FP approach it can
i. Provides resources to cover deficits
1. Energy
2. Food
3. Technology to combat non-traditional threats
4. Expertise to solve security issues
5. Intelligence to fight terrorism
6. Location to access the important destinations
7. Transit to ensure regional integration
8. Resources to cover infrastructural deficit
5) What needs to be done?
Look at the determining Factors
I. Crisis
1. Ideological
2. Economic
3. Resources
4. Political
5. Diplomatic
6. Institutional
II. Conflict
i. Rational Actor Model
a. Role of the Power(actor)
i. Organization
1. UNSC as a VETO
2. UNGA as a major diplomatic player
ii. Institutions iii. MNCs
iv. Regions

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d. How it can help in achieving YOUR national interests.

e. How it can help in preserving YOUR national interests.
f. How it can help as mediator in resolving conflicts.

Pakistan-US Relations in Joe Biden’s Era: Challenges, Prospects and Foreign

Policy Options for Pakistan in Changing Equation
Deconstruction of The Statement:
1) Changing Equation
a. Geo-Political Changes in Contemporary Dynamics i. Emergence of Cold War 2.0
attitude
1. China, US, Russia
2. FP of US:
a. Outcompeting China
b. Constraining Russia
i. Impacts are always there on aligned states
ii. Pak-China Equation
iii. US-India Equation iv. BOP of System
ii. Balance of Power Equation is Shifting: From West to East
iii. Emergence of New Actors and Their influential power
1. National Power of China, Russia
a. Economic
b. Technological
c. Geographical
d. Military
iv. Decaying in the influential policy of US/Shift of US FP from South Asia
1. US exit from Afghanistan is clear example
2. Pivot is South East Asia
b. Geo-Economic Changes in Contemporary Dynamics
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c. Geo-Strategic Changes in Contemporary Dynamics

i. Great Power Competition’s Geography is East Asia/Indo-pacific
ii. Emergence of Tri-lateral relations of China-Russia-Pakistan
iii. Iran-China-Russia-Pakistan-a Quad: US perspective
d. Relevance of Geography in Great Competition
2) Foreign Policy of Pakistan towards US
a. According to MOFA:
b. History:
i. During Cold War
1. Since 1947 Pakistan and US enjoyed cordial relations
2. Cold War Allies
a. SEATO, CENTO
b. During Soviet invasion of Afghanistan
3. Had Strategic/security agreements of 1950s
i. Wide Arrays of Relations
1. Stabilization efforts of Pakistan’s economy
2. Foreign Aid and structural imbalance efforts
3. Energy integration
4. Trade and investment
5. Cultural integration
a. USAID
b. Cultural exchanges programs
iii. In Post 9/11
1. Front line ally
2. Financial aids/Military aid
3. Removal of Sanctions
a. Show that Islamabad and US had cordial bi-lateral relations
4. Change in attitude of US
a. Skeptic towards role of Islamabad
i. Reference:
1. Washington-Delhi Security and Strategic agreements of 2001/2003
2. Af-Pak Policy in Obama Tenure:2009
5. Development of irritants between Washington and Islamabad
a. Violation of territorial integrity of Pakistan
i. Salala Check Post
ii. OBL episode
iii. Raymond Davis Episode
iv. Drone Attacks
b. Sanctions on Pakistan
i. Pressler Amendments
iv. In Contemporary times
1. Economic Relations:
a. 42nd largest Economy according to IMF
b. US is one of the largest destinations of Pakistani exports

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c. Is one of the largest investor in Pakistan

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d. B3W as the US initiative holds potential for Economic relations and integration of
both
e. Removal of Pakistan from FATF:
i. Consolidation of Pak-US relations
f. US NSS document reveals
i. COVAX , Pandemics and Shared Challenges
1. US is interested to cooperate with South Asian states ,Pakistan is one
of them
ii. To fight Non-traditional Security Threats, Pakistan need western allies lead
by US 2. Political Domain
a. Shift of US policy shows:
i. Geography of Pakistan is no more important for the US
1. US document of NSS
a. East Asia is pivot i
i. Challenge
1. India is watchdog of US in South Asia after
US exit from Afghanistan
2. For Pakistan, Delhi is bellicose
a. History of the relations between India-Pakistan
b. Asymmetric balance of power equation
c. Strategic agreements of US-India
i. I2-U2, LEMOA, COMCASA

3. FP option for Pakistan

a. To look for balancer in the region
i. IRAN, RUSSIA, China
3. Strategic Domain
a. Pakistan is no more a front line ally
i. India is Strategic partner of US
1. Quad, Indo-Pacific Strategies, and Bilateral agreements show this
ii. Pak-US Strategic partnership is limited
1. Cold War agreements are in line
2. Post WOT agreements are in line
b. Challenge:
i. US NSS document reveals
1. US will go in extent to supports its allies in this OUTCOMPETING CHINA
a. Indian UNSC membership, NSG membership and US support of
India is changing the strategic stability of South Asia
2. Pak-Russia Relations are on cards since 2014, however,
a. US approach shows
i. Restraining Russia needs hard stance of US towards aligned members of the
region
b. Russian-Ukraine Crisis reveals this mode of perspective for Islamabad
3. US exit from Afghanistan shows that fight against terrorism is not over yet

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a. Challenge: Territorial sovereign intact? , Security?

b. Prospect: Document reveals, ME, SE are the center of Terrorism
i. Pakistan has a chance to change its security environment and policy
4. Public Relations
a. US is the destination for Pakistani
b. Pakistan is the destination of US
i. Services sector

Joe Biden’s Foreign Policy in South Asia

a. National Security Strategy

i. Prospects for Pakistan:
1. To fight against shared challenges, Pakistan being part of developing world needs
Washington supports which is visible
a. Sharp and economic power is the aim of US
i. However, there are opportunities for us
1. To mitigate Climate impacts
2. To fight against Non-Traditional Security Threats
3. To exploit Blue Economy
a. 1040 KM coastal zone of Pakistan has immense resources for
export in Western destinations
i. Poverty
ii. Financial inclusion
4. To purse independent Foreign Policy to serve the national interests in
changing dynamics
5. Documents show the support of Justice system, HR, and women
empowerment are the modules of US objectives
ii. Challenges
1. To maintain Bi-lateral Balanced relations on changed terms
i. In Iran-Pakistan perspective
ii. In Pak-China and Pak-Russian Perspective
2. To purse independent Foreign Policy to serve the national interests in changing
dynamics
i. Seeing the past , Dependency syndrome
3. US intervention using Sharp power in domestic environments of nations
i. To achieve like minded alliance , this policy still haunts Pakistan
i. Example: Ex PM, Imran Khan approach of Regime Change propaganda
against US
4) Way Forward for Pakistan
a. Pakistan must exploit this situation in geo-economic backdrop to meet its needs
b. Islamabad needs to understand that Washington is major player in international relations
c. Islamabad also needs to understand that regional integration is the opportunity of this
changing dynamics
i. Afghanistan stability needs Pakistan’s role

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1. To meet transnational objectives and domestic ones too

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d. Time to come out from “Insecurity syndrome”

e. Must exploit the Modern tools of relations
i. Comprehensive diplomacy and integrated deterrence
f. To achieve this, MOFA needs support from all sections
i. Parliament
ii. Education
iii. IT sector
iv. Think Tanks
g. Avoid using Geo-political lenses only
i. Geo-economic with geo-politics is the equation
5) Conclusion

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SAUDI-IRAN RAPPROCHEMENT AND CHALLENGES FOR PAKISTAN

Structure of the Domain

1) Relations of Iran and KSA a. Nature:
i. Since 1979, Muslim World, religious superiority and influence: competition between Iran and
KSA: Intra-civilizational.
ii. Identity: Arab, Persian
iii. Divergences of interests:
1. Regional
2. Global
3. Security
4. Cultural
5. Economic
6. ideological
b. Dominating Factor/element
i. Ideology
1. Aspirations of the KSA and IRAN
ii. Interests of Global Players
1. KSA and the US

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2. Iran and Russia/China

iii. Regional dynamics of:
1. Security of Middle East since Suez Canal Crisis
2. Alignment: Abraham Accord in Middle East
3. Strategic culture
a. Geography of middle east is in lens of security and militaries
iv. Scope
i. Regional
ii. Muslim World
iii. International
2) What Constitutes Major Part of these relations: Driver of these relations
a. Ideology: Shia-Sunni divide, identity
b. Actor: Israel, US, China, Russia and middle eastern countries
c. Sector: Security, religion, politics, strategic culture, economics and alliances
d. Geography
3) Implications for regional alliance
a. Implications are for those countries/actors of international relations who have fault
lines and domestic constraints
i. Religious
ii. Polarization
iii. Ethno phobic
iv. Domestic security situation
v. Economic concerns of Pakistan: Role of KSA and Iran
b. These fault lines along with the factors emerged due to this relation drive the foreign policies
of concerning member/actor/state
c. Emergence of different nature of challenges
i. Diplomatic
ii. Economic
iii. Security

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d. Alignment

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e. Security
f. Economics
g. Diplomatic relations
h. Foreign policy
4) Why these relations are concerning for Pakistan?
a. Factors evolving due to these interactions
b. Domestic indicators and fault lines
5) What are those factors which are offering any Opportunity?
a. Emerging political, economic and security environment
6) What are the FP approaches available for Pakistan?
a. Recently Pakistan had played the role of arbitrator in Iran-KSA conflict( YEMEN CRISIS)
b. Pakistan must exploit the international organizations supra states i.e. SCO, ECO, OIC) so that
they can play the role of arbitrator
c. Islamabad must use its diplomatic tools with Beijing and Moscow to make sure the presence
of multiple options in KSA-IRAN rapprochement
d. At individual level, Pakistan must avoid arbitration seeing the domestic woes and importance
of KSA and Iran along with regional dynamics
e. At diplomatic level with these countries, Islamabad must try to deescalate the situation
between Iran and KSA
i. Using OIC dialogues
ii. SCO as a platform
iii. UN G77 group of global diplomacy
Analysis:
1) Complex nature of Saudi-Iran relations
a. Both sides are important
2) Regional rivalry is dividing Middle East
a. Power and status quo are the reasons:
b. Arab and Non-Arab blocs
3) Poses certain restraints on FP of Pakistan
a. Maintaining the neutrality

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4) Iran is strategically imperative for Pakistan

5) KSA is ideologically and economically along with security spectrum is important for Pakistan
6) Regional and global dynamics need both factors to be exploited to resolve domestic woes and
to achieve national interests

Rapprochement: Resumption of harmonious relations How and who can play the role?
UN Chapter 6: Amicable means of Conflict Resolution
1) Negotiations to resolve the conflict (points of conflicts)
2) Mediation (Third party)
3) Arbitration (Third Party)
a. Environment
i. During War
ii. Crisis
iii. Diplomatic
1. G77
iv. Sports
v. Convention
1. Side talks
Exploit the situation by the member using diplomatic means
i. While focusing on domestic factors
ii. Using foreign models
1. Rational actor model

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Changing Global Order and Power Alignment in South East Asia

1) Global World Order

a. Changing Global Order
i. Global distribution of power
1. Emergence of new powers
i. Economic
ii. Political
iii. Military
iv. Technological
2. Emergence of non-state actors
3. Reluctance of the Originator to share the burden of Non-Traditional Threats
a. BREXIT
b. US exit from different international regime theory i.e. neo-liberal organizations and
institutions
4. Emergence of Revisionist Russia
a. Russian role in Middle East as a Balancer
b. Russian Involvement in Eastern Europe after Fall of Berlin
c. China-Russia Rapprochement 5.
2) South East Asia as a Region

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a. Geographically, South Eastern Region of Asia

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i. South of mainland China

ii. East of Indian sub-continent iii. North-west of Australia
b. Strategically, Bay of Bengal , Arabian Sea, Oceania , Pacific ocean , Indian Ocean
c. Economically, $9.8 Trillion GDP(PPP)
d. States are 11 in numbers
i. BCI-MML-PST-TV
e. Power Alignment in South East Asia i.e. ECO region
1) Features Changing World Order
a. Political and economic radical shift
b. Weakening of US Hegemony
i. Decay of Liberal institutions in US
ii. Emergence of Populism since 2016
iii. Emergence of Powers as a challenge to US hegemony
c. Gain of Chinese might-the chinese episode in different parts of World
i. Rising FDI of China in Europe
ii. China is the major/largest trading partner in the region
iii. Belt and Road initiative as a strategic plan to show the might
iv. Chinese liberal economy and Chinese democracy
d. Emergence of Right-wing Radicals in Western parts of the world and in Alliances of
West especially the US.
e. NATA and US exit from Afghanistan
f. Recent Ukrainian crisis
g. Economic meltdown in the post covid-19 world
Impacts of these changes
1) Nations with their Changing foreign policy behaviors
a. Behavioral Analysis of Impacts of Changing World Order
b. How?
i. Emergence of RCEP …….
1. Economic power of China:

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2. Behavior Changing of the regional countries

3. Influence of China
4. Hegemonic decay of US
5. ASEAN countries are shifting their weight towards regional hegemon i.e. China
2) Regions with holder of status-quo adjust themselves
a. Realist Perspective:
i. Scenario: Suppose there is a conflict in any part of the world; consider it Europe
and take your-self back into 1900s
1. Global Power Aspirations’ states FP policies
a. Restructure the domestic options
i. During War times
ii. After War times
iii. Before times
b. Change the FP narrative/Behavior
i. Six principles of Mortan Kaplan
1. Loose and Tight Bi-polarity
ii. Define outlook of the event
3) Regions bring themselves in coherence with international political, security and
economic realities
Role of South East Asia
1) In New Great Game or Power Competition the most important regions are
a. South East Asia and South Asia
i. Relevance of these in modern time areas of influence
1. Pacific ocean
2. Indian Ocean
a. Indo-Pacific Policy
b. It will decide the finality of Multi-polar world order
2) This region is NUCLEAS of GREAT COMPETITION
a. It has the potential to transform the global political, economic,

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security and IPE modes

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Impacts for Pakistan

1) Alignment with China shows that Pakistan is not free from the impacts of this alignment
a. Positive Impacts
i. Exploration of the regional opportunities of integration beyond CPEC
ii. FP decision making: Pro-active mode of operation
iii. Economic: Least integrated part of the world has a chance iv. To change the outlook of FP
1. Geo-economics b. Negative Impacts
i. Bloc mode of cold war
ii. FP restrictions seeing the influence of Western institutions in Pakistan
iii. Influence of East on Pakistan restricting the sovereign authority of Pakistan as a nation-state
1. However, these negative impacts as a consequences can be mitigated
a. By improving domestic indicators
b. Improvement in outlook to influence the behavior of other states of EAST Asia and South East
Asia

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National Security Strategy of The UNITED STATES

Origin:
a. In Post WWII:
i. Henry S Truman Doctrine published the CLASSIFIED DOCUMENT
b. In Post War Era i.e. 1970s-1980s
i. Ronald Reagan’s administration produced the Public document of National
Security Strategy
ii. It outlined:
1. Fundamentals of US National Security Strategy
a. US Security in Complex and Changing World Order
b. US Interests
c. Major Objectives in support of US Interests
d. Principal threats
2. US foreign Policy
a. Regional Policies
3. US Defense Policies
c. After USSR disintegration-President W H Bush
d. NSS In William Clinton’s office
i. NSS of engagement and enlargement
1. Recognition of Non-traditional and trans-national threats
ii. 7 NSS Policies in William Clinton’s era
e. NSS in G W Bush(2002 and 2006

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i. Global War on Terrorism

Ii. Weapons of Mass Destruction
iii. Export of Free Market Regime
iv. Increase in Development assistance
v. Increasing role in INGOs
vi. 2006: War time National Security Strategy
f. NSS in Obama Tenure (2010-2015)
i. Most Comprehensive NSS document with Strategic shifts
ii. Change in Behaviors towards Cold War allies and insignificants i
ii. Revival of Great Power Competition
iv. Role of the US in 21st Century
g. NSS in Trump’s Doctrine
i. NSS Puts America First.
ii. Introduced Cyber Space in Security
iii. Secured US borders and Territory
iv. Renewal of Capabilities
1. Military
2. Cyber Space
3. Intelligence
4. Nuclear Forces
v. Used Competitive Diplomacy
1. Economic Diplomacy
vi. Changed in US role in Multilateral Forums

Why Develop a National Security Strategy.

a. Goldwater-Nicholas National Security Reforms
i. By Ronald Administration
ii. Changed the 1947 National Security Act
iii. To fix the Inter-Service Rivalry
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b. It Identifies and Priorities the most important:

i. US interests
ii. Threats to US interests
iii. Objectives of US
c. It sets directions for administration
i. To shape FP
d. It helps to ensure operation of constitutional arrangements
e. It allows President to take initiative in order to create positive outcome
f. It keeps president focused on the future decisions and goals

National Security Strategy by Joe Biden

a. It is VMOSA of The United States of America
b. It outlined:
i. Strategic competition that is shaping the world order
ii. Shared Challenges
iii. Capacity of China to reshape the world order
iv. Role of Russia in Ukraine: Challenge of peace of Europe and global
instability
v. Nuclear Threats from different nations
vi. Power and position of Autocrats to undermine democracy
c. It has 5 parts
i. Structure of National Security Strategy
1. Vision
a. Recognition of Two Ways Challenges
i. Great Power Competition
ii. Challenges posed by Non-traditional Security Threats
b. Strengthening of international institutions
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c. Role of Democratic norms^^

d. Challenges of nationalism, populism a geo-political competition hinder
cooperation
2. Role
a. Compete with major autocracies
b. Consolidating power of allies to increase US power
c. Improvement in quality of democracy at home
d. Transforming challenges into prospects
e. To influence the external environment of PRC and Russia
f. To avoid rigid blocs; fluid bloc is a key
g. Cooperation to address shared challenges
3. Nature of competition
a. Competition between ideologies i.e. autocracies and democracies
b. Competition in foundational technologies of economy and security
c. Frayed cooperation on shared challenges
d. Contested international environment due to great power competition
e. Revisionist foreign actors with authoritarian nature of governance
f. Between liberal and illiberal international order
g. China is the only competitor in technology, military, diplomatic, and
economic power
h. Weaponization of Oil by Russia and OPEC Role in Supply
4. How to address shared challenges
a. Geo-political changes are complicating the contexts of addressing
shared challenge.
b. Reducing reliance on Russia: it seeks to weaponized energy
c. By establishing international leadership to meet the transnational challenge
d. Need of global energy transition
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i. Climate legislation at domestic level e. Three Lines of Efforts:

i. Invest in sources and tools of American Power
ii. Building strongest possible coalition: neo-realism to shape the
global strategic environment
iii. Modernization of military: need of the strategic competition
f. Investment in innovation and industrial strength
g. Structural deterrence with:
i. Strong and unified NATO
ii. Affirmative engagement in Indo-pacific and Europe
h. Limiting Iran’s influence in the internal affairs of neighbors
i. Ensuring integrated Middle East
j. Adjusting globalization to meet the global change
i. Beyond free trade agreements
ii. Indo-pacific economic framework for prosperity
iii. Partnership for global investment and infrastructure k. Reforming
the UN
Objectives of US in future
1. Investing in National Power
a. Inflation reduction act of 2022
i. Invest in domestic energy production and manufacturing
ii. Reduction in carbon emission
iii. Chip Industry: 280$ bn
b. Cyberspace environment
c. Investing in people
d. Strengthening democracy at home
e. First ever national strategy for countering domestic

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terrorism

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i. To reduce political interference

ii. To check information manipulation operations
2. Industrial and Innovative strategy
3. Diplomatic Tools to build strongest coalitions
a. To assemble strongest possible coalition
b. Like minded alliance**
c. Madrid Summit of 2022:
i. Finland and Sweden application
ii. To address systematic challenge of PRC and other security
risks
iii. In US-EU Trade and Technology Council economic and
technological modes of diplomacy
iv. AUKUS as a security partnership – defensive realism
v. Continuing FIVE Eyes(ACNZUKU)
vi. Revitalizing QUAD v
ii. Inclusive World
1. IPEF:40 percent of global GDP
2. PGII with G7 partners to
a. Meet the infrastructure needs
Partnership with ASEAN
4. Modernization of military
a. America will not hesitate to use force
b. Introduced integrated Deterrence
i. Across regions
ii. Domains: Military and non-military
iii. Spectrum of conflicts: to prevent competitor from altering the
status-quo
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iv. US government
v. Allies and partners
c. Investment in advanced technologies
i. Space and cyber domains
ii. Missile defeat capabilities
iii. Artificial intelligence
iv. Modernization of Nuclear Triad;
1. Nuclear command
2. Control
3. Communication
v. Nuclear commitments with allies
iii. Global Goals of US
Russia and PRC are aligned but they pose different challenges.
1. Out competing China a. Recognized
i. Increasing power of China
ii. Intent to change the World Order
iii. can become the world’s leading power
iv. sharp power of china
v. increasing influence of china in INGOs
vi. growing strength and reach globally
vii. PRC is also Central for shared challenges
b. Strategy against PRC: Triangular
i. To invest in foundation of domestic strength
ii. Align efforts with allies: common purpose and cause
iii. Responsible competition with PRC
c. Competition is most pronounced in Indo-Pacific
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d. Contest to write the global rules

e. Will hold accountable Beijing in;
i. Xinjiang: Genocide, war crimes
ii. Tibet: HR violations
iii. Honk Kong: Violation of autonomy
f. Maintenance of peace and stability in Taiwan Strait
I. Critical for regional and global security
ii. Oppose unilateral changes from either side**
iii. Commitment with One China Policy
iv. Support Self Defense of Taiwan under Taiwan Relations
Act
g. Engage Beijing in Formal arms control efforts
h. Can work on Shared Challenges
i. Public diplomacy with Chinese People
2. Constraining Russia
a. Russia is Pursing Imperialist FP
i. Goal of Russia: To Overturn Key Elements of Int. Order
ii. Russia intervened in Ukraine, Syria
iii. Russian efforts of destabilization
iv. Russian efforts to undermine democratic processes in Europe,
Central Asia, and in the US
v. Russia is a threat to international peace and security
b. Marshal Plan in Europe by US in shape of security assistance to Ukraine
c. Ensuring Russian War in Ukraine is a strategic failure
d. Constraining Russian:
i. Economic sector

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ii. Defense and aerospace iii. Strategic assets

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e. Five Core strategies

i. US will continue Ukrainian support
ii. US will defend NATO territory
iii. US will deter and respond to Russian actions
iv. Will not allow Russia to use nuclear weapons
v. Will retain strategic stability vi. Will ensure NEW START
3. Cooperation on Shared Challenges
a. Climate and Energy
i. the U.S.-EU Task Force on European Energy Security
ii. the Clean Energy Ministerial and Mission Innovation
iii. Power Africa,
iv. the Eastern Mediterranean Gas Forum
v. the Partnership for Transatlantic Energy and Climate Cooperation
vi. 11$bn annual in climate funding to low income countries
b. Pandemics
i. No one is safe until everyone is safe
ii. Commitment to COVAX,WHO, and cooperation in Global Health
Security
iii. South Asia and Africa: will support NGOs and private sector
c. Food insecurity
i. Addition of 75 million more people in extreme poverty
ii. Launched road map for Global Food Security
Strategy: A call of action for 100+ states d. Arms Control and non-
proliferation
i. Renewed arms control and non-proliferation leadership
e. Terrorism
i. Al-Qaida, ISIS: Middle East, Africa, South East Asia
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ii. Will ensure Afghanistan never again serve as a safe haven

iii. Change in Policy
iv. U.S.-led partner-enabled to Partner-led U.S.- enabled
4. Shaping the rules of
a. Technology
i. Like minded actors to achieve international technology
ecosystem
b. Cyber space
i. Quad: to define standards for critical infrastructure
c. International trade
i. Will work on international economic system fit for
contemporary realities

Regional Strategies
1. Indo-Pacific: Free and Open
a. Epicenter of 21st century geo-politics
b. Open access to South China Sea
i. 2/3rd of global maritime trade
ii. 1/4th of all trades
c. 5 regional treaty alliances
i. ASEAN
ii. APEC
iii. AUKUS
iv. QUAD
v. Indo-pacific treaty allies
1. AUS-JAPAN-KOREA-PHILIPPINES, and THAILAND
vi. Bi-lateral and Multi-lateral agreements with India
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2. Deepening of Alliance in Europe

a. Collective Defense Commitment in Article 5 of NATO
b. EU-US partnership
c. Support of Western Balkan
d. Continue engagement with Turkey
e. Support C5+1 diplomatic platform
f. Support Central Asian aspirations
g. Work with G7
3. Support of De-escalation and integration in Middle East
a. Recognized past FP approached with Military-centric as defaulted
underpinned by unrealistic faith in force and regime change with higher cost
b. New Framework for Middle East on 5 Principles
i. Support to like-minded alliances
ii. Not allow any nation to jeopardize the freedom of navigation
through ME waterways including Hormuz and Bab al Mandeb
iii. Will work to reduce tensions, escalations, and conflicts
iv. Will work on regional integration through political,
economic, and security connections
v. Support of HR
c. Will counter and deter Iran
d. Diplomacy to ensure Iran can never acquire nuclear weapon
e. Provide economic aid, security assistance and diplomacy to alleviate
sufferings and to reduce instabilities
i. Yemen , Syria, Libya
f. Work to have deepen ties of Israel with Arab states through Abraham
Accord
g. Continue to promote TWO STATES SOLUTION

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i. Two states along 1967 lines: Speech of Biden in West Bank in July 2022

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h. Limit the use of force

i. Will not use regime change or remake of societies
j. Encourage energy producer to stabilize global energy markets
4. US-Africa Partnership
a. Key support of largest African states
5. Protection of Sea, Air and Space

Conclusion

The China-Taiwan Issue

1) The China-Taiwan issue has escalated to war like situation after the visit of US House
Speaker Nancy Pelosi in August 2022.

 The differences over Taiwan’s status have fueled rising tensions between the island and
the mainland.
 Now Taiwan has the potential to be a flash point in U.S.-China relations.
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2) Taiwan, officially known as the Republic of China (ROC), is an island separated from China
by the Taiwan Strait. It sits in the so-called “first island chain”, which includes a list of US-
friendly territories that are crucial to US foreign policy.
3) It has been governed independently of mainland China, officially the People’s Republic of
China (PRC), since 1949.
4) The PRC views the island as a renegade province and vows to eventually unify Taiwan
with the mainland.
5) In Taiwan, which has its own democratically elected government and is home to twenty-
three million people, political leaders have differing views on the island’s status and
relations with the mainland.

History of Taiwan
1) The first known settlers in Taiwan were Austronesian tribal people, who are thought to
have come from modern-day southern China.
2) The island was first mentioned in Chinese records in 239 CE when an emperor sent an
expeditionary force to explore the area.
3) It was under Dutch control from 1624 to 1661.
4) Then Taiwan was administered by China’s Qing dynasty from 1683 to 1895.
5) The largest demographic groups on the island now are Hakka Chinese who fled the
mainland in the 17th century.
6) The Qing dynasty had to surrender Taiwan to Japan in 1895 after it lost in the First Sino-
Japanese War.
7) After World War II, Japan surrendered and relinquished control of territory it had taken
from China. The Republic of China (ROC) which was one of the victors in the war began
ruling Taiwan with the consent of its allies, the US and the UK.
8) During the civil war in China, Mao Zedong’s Communist army took the reign of the
mainland by defeating the Kuomintang (KMT). The remnants of the KMT government and
their support fled to Taiwan in 1949.
9) They established a government in exile in Taiwan which led the island for the next 25
years. The successors allowed more democratization over the years as the locals
protested against the authoritarian rule.
10) President Lee Teng-hui, known as Taiwan’s ‘father of democracy, led constitutional
changes, which eventually made way for the election of the island’s first non-KMT
president, in 2000.
11) The present-day conflict arose out of the fact that the ROC government-in-exile at first
claimed to represent the whole of China, which it intended to re-occupy. It held China’s
seat on the United Nations Security Council and was recognized by many Western
nations as the only Chinese government.
12) But by the 1970s some countries began to argue that the Taipei government could no
longer be considered a genuine representative of the hundreds of millions of people
living in mainland China.
13) Then in 1971, the UN switched diplomatic recognition to Beijing and the ROC
government was forced out. In 1978, China also began opening up its economy.
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Recognizing opportunities for trade and the need to develop relations, the US formally
established diplomatic ties with Beijing in 1979.
14) Since then the number of countries that recognize the ROC government diplomatically
has fallen drastically to about 15.
15) Now, despite having all the characteristics of an independent state and a political system
that is distinct from China, Taiwan’s legal status remains unclear.

China-Taiwan relations
1) By the 1980s Taiwan relaxed rules on visits and investments in China. In 1991, it
proclaimed that the war with the People’s Republic of China was over.

2) China proposed the so-called ‘one country, two systems’ option, which it said would
allow Taiwan significant autonomy if it agreed to come under Beijing’s control.

3) Taiwan rejected the offer and Beijing’s insisted that Taiwan’s ROC government is
illegitimate – but unofficial representatives from China and Taiwan still held limited talks.

 Beijing claims that Taiwan is bound by an understanding known as the 1992 Consensus,
which was reached between representatives of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) and
the Kuomintang (KMT) party that ruled Taiwan at that time.
 However, the two sides do not agree on the content of this consensus, as it was never
intended to address the question of Taiwan’s legal status.

4) In 2000, the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) came into power in Taiwan which
promoted the idea of independence which alarmed mainland China.
5) In 2008, KMT came into power and tried to restore the one China system through
economic relations.
6) In 2016 the current President of DPP came into power hence re-affirming the idea of
independence again.
7) Since 2018, Beijing had been putting pressure on international companies and forums to
list Taiwan as part of China.
8) By 2020, Hong Kong had seen months of protests against the growing influence of
mainland China on the island.
9) Later that year China’s implemented a national security law in Hong Kong which was
another sign of Beijing’s assertion.
10) Economically, the trade and investments between Taipei and Beijing have been
increasing. This causes the Taiwanese to worry that their economy is now dependent on
China.

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Role of the US in the China-Taiwan issue

1) In 1979, the United States established formal diplomatic relations with the PRC. At the
same time, it severed its diplomatic ties and abrogated its mutual defense treaty with the
ROC.

2) Officially, the US acknowledges the “One-China” policy, which recognizes only one
Chinese government in Beijing and has formal ties with Beijing rather than Taipei.

3) But Washington’s actions have been that of strategic ambiguity where it has proclaimed
that it would intervene militarily if China were to invade Taiwan. The US has also pledged
to supply Taiwan with defensive weapons. Beijing has repeatedly urged Washington to
stop selling weapons and cease contact with Taipei.

4) The Trump administration had increased the arms trade to Taiwan which escalated
tension between China-Taiwan and the Biden administration is continuing the weapons
trade with Taipei.

5) The issue of Taiwan has strained the relations between US and China. Beijing has
condemned the support of Washington to Taipei and has increased military exercises
around Taiwan Strait in recent times.

6) The visit of US house speaker Nancy Pelosi to Taiwan has heightened the tensions
between the countries.

 China has kick-started one of the most significant military exercises in the Taiwan straits
and put economic sanctions on the island.

Recognition to Taiwan
13) China rejects Taiwan’s participation as a member in UN agencies and other international
organizations that limit membership to states. Taipei regularly protests its exclusion; the United
States also pushes for Taiwan’s meaningful participation in such organizations.

2) Amid the COVID-19 pandemic, Taipei criticized the World Health Organization (WHO) for
giving in to Beijing’s demands and continuing to bar Taiwan—which mounted one of the world’s
most effective responses to COVID-19 in the first two years of the pandemic—from attending
the organization’s World Health Assembly as an observer. Ministers from the Group of Seven
(G7) countries have called for Taiwan’s inclusion in WHO forums.

3)Taiwan does, however, hold member status in more than forty organizations, most of them
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regional, such as the Asian Development Bank and the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation forum,

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as well as the World Trade Organization. It holds observer or another status on several other
bodies.

4) Only fourteen states maintain official diplomatic ties with Taiwan. No government has ever
simultaneously maintained formal diplomatic ties with both China and Taiwan.

Consequences of US-China-Taiwan tensions

A: The US-Taiwan relations are fuelling the military assertiveness of China in the Taiwan Strait.
Such conflict has the potential to lead to a US-China confrontation.

B:The cross-strait tensions can have a negative impact on Taiwan’s vital semiconductor chip
manufacturing industry. Companies in Taiwan were responsible for more than 60 percent of the
revenue generated by the world’s semiconductor contract manufacturers in 2020.

C: Taiwan Strait is one of the major global trade routes with almost 20% of global trade passing
through the strait. Any military activity between China-Taiwan will disrupt the global supply chain
creating a crisis on the international stage.

Way forward
A: The Russian-Ukraine war is been observed by the world and especially in China, so Beijing will
analyze the consequences of the ongoing war before any action against Taiwan. But the Chinese
economy is far more than the Russian economy hence that will also be taken into consideration.

B: Any escalation in the Taiwan Strait will affect the whole Indo-Pacific security and trade.

C: Countries like Japan, and Australia have urged China to cease the military exercises and missile
test fires around Taiwan, which shows that Chinese aggression has started affecting the nations
already.

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ONE CHINA POLICY

 It is the diplomatic acknowledgement of China's position that there is only one Chinese
government. Under the policy, the US recognises and has formal ties with China rather
than the island of Taiwan, which China sees as a breakaway province to be reunified with
the mainland one day.
 The One China policy is a key cornerstone of Sino-US relations. It is also a fundamental
bedrock of Chinese policy-making and diplomacy. However, it is distinct from the One
China principle, whereby China insists Taiwan is an inalienable part of one China to be
reunified one day.
 The US policy is not an endorsement of Beijing's position and indeed as part of the policy,
Washington maintains a “robust unofficial” relationship with Taiwan, including continued
arms sales to the island so that it can defend itself.
 Although Taiwan's government claims it is an independent country officially called the
“Republic of China”, any country that wants diplomatic relations with mainland China
must break official ties with Taipei.
 This has resulted in Taiwan's diplomatic isolation from the international community.

HOW HAS CHINA RESPONDED TO THE INCREASING TENSIONS

 China’s military, the People’s Liberation Army, has sent jet fighters, bombers and spy
planes on hundreds of sorties near Taiwan over the past year. Taiwan describes the
sorties and other military moves by China in the region as a form of “gray zone” warfare,
designed to probe and exhaust the island’s defenses while discouraging Taipei from
tightening ties with Washington and other democratic capitals.
 China has often conducted military exercises around Taiwan in response to the presence
nearby of U.S. aircraft-carrier strike groups.
 Beijing has also begun a major expansion of its nuclear arsenal, partly to deter the U.S.
from using its own nuclear weapons in a conflict over Taiwan.

TAIWAN'S RESPONSE

 Defense analysts have long questioned Taiwan’s ability to resist a Chinese attack.
Taiwanese soldiers and reservists have themselves expressed concerns about training
and readiness.

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 In response, Taiwan’s government established an agency to revamp reserve forces. It has

also staged exercises it hopes will deter Beijing from contemplating an invasion.
 More recently, the war in Ukraine has led Taiwan to rethink its preparations for an attack,
with some lawmakers pushing for more purchases of the portable antitank and
antiaircraft missiles that Ukrainian soldiers have used to great effect. The island’s military
is also considering extending conscription to 12 months from the current four—a
proposition that was widely considered a political impossibility before the war.

WHAT IS STRATEGIC AMBIGUITY

 Officially, the U.S. government abides by a “One China” policy that recognizes the People’s
Republic of China as the country’s only legitimate government and acknowledges—
but doesn’t endorse—Beijing’s claims over Taiwan.
 Since 1979, U.S. policy toward the defense of Taiwan has been governed by a law known
as the Taiwan Relations Act, which holds that any attempt to determine Taiwan’s political
future through anything other than peaceful means constitutes a threat to American
interests. The act commits the U.S. to sell weapons to Taiwan for its self-defense, but is
conspicuously silent on whether the U.S. is obligated to defend Taiwan in the event of an
attack.
 For decades, Washington has strategically avoided making a commitment either way, in
the hope that uncertainty about its posture will prevent both Beijing and Taipei from
making moves to upset the status quo.

TAIWAN'S ECONOMIC SITUATION

 Taiwan’s economy remains reliant on trade with China, which is the island’s largest
trading partner. However, their economic relationship has experienced disruptions in
recent years, partly due to Beijing’s pressure on the island and Taiwanese officials’
growing concern about its overreliance on trade with China.

 Under President Ma, who was in office from 2008 to 2016, Taiwan signed more than
twenty pacts with the PRC, including the 2010 Cross-Straits Economic Cooperation
Framework Agreement, in which they agreed to lift barriers to trade. China and Taiwan
resumed direct sea, air, and mail links that had been banned for decades. They also
agreed to allow banks, insurers, and other financial-service providers to work in both
markets.
 Tsai and the DPP, on the other hand, have attempted to diversify Taiwan’s trade
relationships, with mixed results. Tsai has had some success boosting trade with and
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investment in countries in Southeast Asia and the Indo-Pacific through a signature

initiative, the New Southbound Policy. Trade between Taiwan and the eighteen targeted
countries increased by more than $50 billion between 2016, when the initiative was
unveiled, and 2021. Taiwanese investment in those countries has also steadily increased.
In 2019, Tsai unveiled a three-year plan to incentivize Taiwanese manufacturers to move
from the mainland back to Taiwan.
 Still, in 2021, Taiwan’s exports to China hit an all-time high. Beijing has pressured
countries not to sign free trade agreements with Taiwan. A handful of countries have
signed free trade pacts with the island; New Zealand and Singapore are the only
developed economies to sign such agreements. Beijing has also pushed for Taiwan’s
exclusion from multilateral trading blocs, including the Comprehensive and Progressive
Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP) and the Regional Comprehensive
Economic Partnership (RCEP). (China is included in the RCEP but not in the CPTPP.) Taiwan
also is not part of the Biden administration’s Indo-Pacific Economic Framework.

HAVE CROSS- STRAIT TENSIONS HURT TAIWAN'S VITAL SEMICONDUCTOR CHIP MANUFACTURERS?

 Taiwan is the world’s top contract manufacturer of semiconductor chips, and its industry
is booming despite cross-strait tensions. These chips are found in most electronics,
including smartphones, computers, vehicles, and even weapons systems that rely on
artificial intelligence. Companies in Taiwan were responsible for more than 60 percent of
revenue generated by the world’s semiconductor contract manufacturers in 2020.
 Much of that can be attributed to Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company
(TSMC), the world’s largest contract chip maker and the top supplier for Apple and other
U.S. companies. It is one of only two companies in the world (the other is South Korea-
based Samsung) that has the technological know-how to make the smallest, most
advanced chips, and it manufactures more than 90 percent of them.
 Some experts argue that the United States’ dependence on Taiwanese chip firms
heightens its motivation to defend Taiwan from a Chinese attack. Recognizing the extent
to which the United States relies on one company for critical chips, Biden has led a push
to strengthen the U.S. chip industry. China also relies on Taiwanese chips, though not as
much as the United States does. Beijing is working to boost its industry, especially as
Washington has pushed TSMC to stop selling to Chinese companies, including Huawei, a
Chinese telecommunications giant that Washington claims Beijing could use for
espionage.

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Changing Global Order and Power Alignment in South East Asia

Changing Global Order and Power Alignment in (X Region)

Structure of the Domain:

1) Global World Order

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a. Changing Global Order

i. Global distribution of power

1. Emergence of new powers
i. Economic

ii. Political
iii. Military
iv. Technological
2. Emergence of non-state actors

3. Reluctance of the Originator to share the burden

of Non-Traditional Threats
a. BREXIT

b. US exit from different international

regime theory i.e. neo-liberal
organizations and institutions
4. Emergence of Revisionist Russia
a. Russian role in Middle East as a Balancer

b. Russian Involvement in Eastern Europe after

Fall of Berlin
c. China-Russia Rapprochement
5.

2) South East Asia as a Region

a. Geographically, South Eastern Region of Asia

i. South of mainland China

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ii. East of Indian sub-continent

iii. North-west of Australia

b. Strategically, Bay of Bengal , Arabian Sea, Oceania , Pacific ocean ,

Indian Ocean
c. Economically, $9.8 Trillion GDP(PPP)
d. States are 11 in numbers
i. BCI-MML-PST-TV
e. Power Alignment in South East Asia i.e. ECO region

1) Features Changing World Order

a. Political and economic radical shift
b. Weakening of US Hegemony
i. Decay of Liberal institutions in US
ii. Emergence of Populism since 2016
iii. Emergence of Powers as a challenge to US hegemony

c. Gain of Chinese might-the chinese episode in different parts of

World
i. Rising FDI of China in Europe
ii. China is the major/largest trading partner in the region

iii. Belt and Road initiative as a strategic plan to show the

might
iv. Chinese liberal economy and Chinese democracy

d. Emergence of Right-wing Radicals in Western parts of the world

and in Alliances of West especially the US.
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e. NATA and US exit from Afghanistan

f. Recent Ukrainian crisis
g. Economic meltdown in the post covid-19 world

Impacts of these changes

1) Nations with their Changing foreign policy behaviors

a. Behavioral Analysis of Impacts of Changing World Order
b. How?

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i. Emergence of RCEP …….

1. Economic power of China:
2. Behavior Changing
3. Influence of China
4. Hegemonic decay of US

5. ASEAN countries are shifting their weight towards

regional hegemon i.e. China

2) Regions with holder of status-quo adjust

themselves a. Realist Perspective:

i. Scenario: Suppose there is a conflict in any part of the world;

consider it Europe and take your-self back into 1900s
1. Global Power Aspirations’ states FP policies
a. Restructure the domestic options
i. During War times
ii. After War times
iii. Before times
b. Change the FP narrative/Behavior
i. Six principles of Mortan Kaplan
1. Loose and Tight Bi-polarity
ii. Define outlook of the event

3) Regions bring themselves in coherence with international political,

security and economic realities

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Role of South East Asia

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1) In New Great Game or Power Competition the most important regions are
a. South East Asia and South Asia
i. Relevance of these in modern time areas of influence

1. Pacific ocean
2. Indian Ocean
a. Indo-Pacific Policy

b. It will decide the finality of Multi-polar world order

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2) This region is NUCLEAS of GREAT COMPETITION

a. It has the potential to transform the global political, economic,

security and IPE modes

Impacts for Pakistan

1) Alignment with China shows that Pakistan is not free from the
impacts of this alignment
a. Positive Impacts

i. Exploration of the regional opportunities of integration

beyond CPEC
ii. FP decision making: Pro-active mode of operation
iii. Economic: Least integrated part of the world has a chance
iv. To change the outlook of FP
1. Geo-economics
b. Negative Impacts
i. Bloc mode of cold war

ii. FP restrictions seeing the influence of Western institutions

in Pakistan

iii. Influence of East on Pakistan restricting the sovereign

authority of Pakistan as a nation-state

1. However, these negative impacts as a consequences

can be mitigated
a. By improving domestic indicators

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b. Improvement in outlook to influence the

behavior of other states of EAST Asia and
South East Asia

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Implications of Changing World Order for Globe and Different Regions

Class at 8:45

Changing World Order:

a. Changing Global Order

i. Global distribution of power

1. Change in this equation

a. Emergence of new powers

i. Economic

1. China , East , ASEAN, BRI

a. From dependency
to interdependency
2. Institutions of West are decaying
a. Finance and Trade
b. US-China Trade War
c. IMF Policies in the post covid-

19

ii. Political

1. Indo-Pacific is new Concert like

Concert of Europe
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2. Liberal World Order as a traditional

system in Post Cold War era….

3. Alliance of Western Democracy

a. QUAD, AUKUS

4. In Middle East, Russia is new

Balancer

5. In Asia, China and Russia are

potential status quo leaders

a. Multi-polarity as mentioned
by Mortan Kaplan

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iii. Military
1. Technology is the new warfare zone

2. China, Russia , Britain, France, and

US along with Regional Hegemon

a. S-400 of Russia

iv. Technological
2. Emergence of non-state actors
a. Post 9/11 insurgent groups as a potential threats

b. Climate Change, Water Scarcity, Poverty, and

Pandemics

i. Force of globalization are also forces of

de-globalization

ii. East is more responsible in managing Non-

state actor
1. It is visible in BRI, Global campaigns
a. COP26, COP27
2. Inter Afghan Peace Process

a. Role of Russia and China

is also visible

i. Moscow round , Geneva

Talks

c. Reluctance of the Originator to share the

burden of Non-Traditional Threats
d. BREXIT

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e. US exit from different international

regime theory i.e. neo-liberal
organizations and institutions
3. Emergence of Revisionist Russia

a. Russian role in Middle East as a Balancer

b. Russian Involvement in Eastern Europe after

Fall of Berlin
c. China-Russia Rapprochement

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Implications of Changing World Order for the Globe

Let me tell you one Theory and his views to understand this….

Six Problematiques of International System- The World System Theory

Immanuel Wallerstein – a sociologist

1) There is an economic system

a. Few get benefits
b. Others are exploited
A) In Changing Economic Environment
1) Regionalism instead of Globalization

a. Region may get benefit and most of them are already least

developed or developing

i. West is exploited in this changing environment

2) Lags of infrastructural development and sustainable development

shall have a chance to be covered
a. As West is also interested to be part of this with B3W

B) In Changing Political Environment

a. West as a hegemon influenced the UN, WTO, IMF
i. Confession of an Economic Hitman…..
b. East as a Major Voice
i. G3
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ii. UNSC

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iii. G77

c. Organizations have the chance to play their effective role without

being manipulated
C) On Global Society i.e. the principle of International Society
a. English School of Thought
i. With China and Russia
1. Capitalism will face the blow
2. Equality in economic system is the new life

a. IMF: India has made significant efforts to

fight extreme poverty

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b. China has done it already

3. Addition of Social liberalism
a. China is also pursuing market economy
D) On Strategic Culture
a. Emergence of New Great Game
i. Global Power Competition
1. RUSSIA and Britain
2. USSR and China
ii. It is emerging again
1. US and China
a. South China Sea , Indo-Pacific Policy
2. US and RUSSIA
a. UKRAINE Crisis, NATO expansion
b. Bloc system will prevail again
i. Inevitability of Cold War 2.0

ii. Independence of Foreign Policies of nations is under

extreme pressure

iii. Territorial sovereignty, economic sovereignty and

institutional security
1. Technological power

a. Example: US election in 2016, Middle East ,

Iranian Facilities and Isreal
E) On Global Peace
a. Yes, There is a complex international relations
i. Multi-polarity has the potential to resolve it in a peaceful
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b. Example:
i. Nation states with their security policies are working on
COMPREHENSIVE SECURITY

1. Barry Buzan’s concept

a. International security
b. National security
c. Individual security
2. US Security Document of 2022

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ii. International Human Rights Regime is under pressure

1. Indian role in Kashmir
2. Myanmar
3. Middle East and Palestine
4. Russia and Crimea
5. China and Taiwan, Hong Kong
iii. Violation of Territorial integrity is inevitable
1. Russia-Ukraine
2. China-Taiwan
3. India and Kashmir
4. Israel Palestine
5. US in different parts of the world

What needs to be done to ensure the changing global order ensures Peace,
Prosperity, development , common fight against Non-traditional threats

1) Institutional Spectrum
a. Strength the UN
i. UNSC Reforms implement
1. Introduce democratic spirit against VETO system
2. Add new members in P5
ii. Ensure Consensus orientation in UNGA

iii. Globalization with responsible role: Preservation of this is

the task of the UN with its agencies
b. Regional organizations are working on the spirit of the UN
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i. G20, SCO, EU, SAARC, ASEAN

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ii. They need democratic spirit

iii. Integration models based on functionalism
1. Functionalism: David Mitrany
a. Case study: EU is working on this model
b. It is based on Immanuel Kant’s integration theory
2) Individual Spectrum-state lens
a. Washington is an important player along with Beijing and Moscow
i. Avoid containment in any way

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b. Responsible nation-state is the ultimate reality

i. In international law: Rights and duties of a nation-state

1. Regional powers along with global leaders need to

understand this
a. To ensure UN Preamble

i. “ To save the future generation from the

scourge of war”
3) In the spectrum of International Law
a. In evolved concept on Int. Law
i. Respect for international law is the duty of every state

ii. For Law: Reparation and Reverence Formula is missing

4) In term of International- Political Economy

a. International Finance : Superiority and Competition will hurt

the international finance
b. International Trade: Free Trade principle is the ultimate remedy
i. It must prevail without any barrier

Conclusion:

1) World Order is changing. It is a reality now….. What would be the rules

and who would be the primary driver ……… the question is facing the
competition in different spectrum….globe is facing multi-faceted
challenges. To ensure the survival of global society with progress and
development is the ultimate struggle.

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Current Affairs for CSS 2023 and Special CSS by Zeeshan Zaffar ( CSS 2020, PMS 2019, PMS 2021)

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Topic: Indo-Pacific: The Theatre of Great Power Competition

Introduction:

2) Indo-Pacific is the geo-political, geo-strategic theatre of global power competition.

3) As a geography, it is the manifestation of two oceans i.e. Indian and Pacific Ocean.

4) In 21st Century, it emerged as the most important geography of the world i.e.
Centre of the world politics.
5) The great power competition between the U.S. and China can be witnessed in
this part of the world.
6) Cooperation: In terms of cooperation; politics, economic, strategic, security,
cultural and social, the region manifests the complex nature of cooperation
a Like minded alliance-The QUAD, AUKUS and I2U2
b Regional integration: RCEP
c Convergence of Interests: US, India, Japan, South Korea, Australia
d ASEAN integration- The ASEAN way
i. The US led and China Led
ii. Regional model of cooperation also exists in this region.
7) Conflicts: In terms of Conflicts, Politics, Economic, Strategic, Security,
Cultural, Social and Policy level
a The Great Power Competition
b Regional Conflicts
i. Territorial
ii. Political
iii. Security
c Indo-China Conflicts
i. Nine Dash Line and Act East Policy

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Evolution of the Concept:

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3) Indo-Pacific was used in oceanography terms

4) In 1920, Karl Haushofer discussed it in terms of geopolitics

5) In 21st Century, it evolved as a Mental Map. It evolved from geographical

boundaries to political boundaries- continents and states, islands and territorial seas,
continental shelves and exclusive economic zones

6) It is due to the shift in Centre of Gravity towards Asia from Atlantic

a. Sea Lanes of Indian Ocean and Pacific Ocean
7) Fear of domination of one Power as a HEGEMONIC STABILITY MODEL
made this a theatre

Importance of Indo-Pacific

2 Economy, Trade and Commerce

a Centre of global trade
b 65% of global Population
c 63% Global GDP
d 46% Merchandise trade
e 50% Global Trade
3 Security- expanded definition of security
a Construct of the contesting powers
a US: Free and Open Indo Pacific
b Japan: Free and Open Indo Pacific
ii. Supported by : India and Australia
4 Power:
a US: Balancer of Chinese Power
a Containment of Hegemonic Consolidation of China
b Outcompeting China
b Japan: Soft and Sharp Power
a Consideration of Infrastructure and expansion of economics
c India: Containment of China, Consolidation of US Policy
5 Strategic Importance: Theatre of Great Power Competition

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a Region will decide the World Order Rules

b Australia: augmentation of this importance in the region

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Stake Holders and Their Interests/Perspectives

2 Indian Perspective:
b. Indian Presence in South China Sea, East Asia to Counter China
c. Approach of Hegemon and Status Quo
d. India seeks divided Indo-Pacific
e. India Converges with US Version of Indo-Pacific
f. India is looking for Hegemonization of the Region
g. India considers China a threat and Challenge
3 The US Perspective:
b. Outcompeting China
c. Containing China
d. Free and Indo-pacific is the policy to influence region-the American Power
e. Expansion of Security Perspective in the region-inclusion of comprehensive
Security approach
4 Japan:
b. Shares the US version of Free and Open Indo-Pacific
c. Approach of infrastructure development in the Asian Region
d. Global Outreach of its Foreign Policy in Liberal Lens
2) Australia
a Without countering China, Strategic vision is there
b Non-Confrontation
c Security: AUKUS
d Augmentation of the US policy
e Outreach in Indo-Pacific
3) Extra-regional players

a. The EU, France , Britain and Germany

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QUAD-Augmentation of Indo-pacific policy with security and political lenses

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a. Introduction: A convergence in Policy to Contain China

2) Concept: Strategic and Security grouping of like-minded alliance.

a. Common ground: In, Interests, approach, and policy
b. Common Aim:
To ensure Free and Open Indo-Pacific
To Contain China
To Restrict the Chinese influence
st
3) As an Idea it emerged in 21 Century
a. In 2007, Shinzo Abe in India made a speech
4) As a Formal Agreement
a. In 2017, India, Australia, The US and Japan came together for
formal coalition
5) Background of Quad
a. Concept of Indo-pacific

In 21st Century, it evolved as a Mental Map. It evolved from

geographical boundaries to political boundaries- continents and
states, islands and territorial seas, continental shelves and exclusive
economic zones

It is due to the shift in Centre of Gravity towards Asia from

Atlantic
Sea Lanes of Indian Ocean and Pacific Ocean
Fear of domination of one Power as a HEGEMONIC
STABILITY MODEL made this a theatre
The US approach of Free and Open Indo Pacific
during Obama Tenure

2 Feature of QUAD
a In Countering China,
i. Influence in maritime space with engagement of like
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minded players
j. The Security Paradigm

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1. Indo-Pacific as the geopolitical manifestation shown in

the foreign policies of all major players
2. Maritime security is central in QUAD
k. Economic and Political manifestation of QUAD
1. Due to importance of Indo-Pacific in trade and
commerce
2. Infrastructure assistance
3. Connectivity and other economic activities
l. The policy of Status Quo
1. The US: In containment of China, it is interested
in influence in the region
2. India: To check Imperialist Policy of China is
pursuing the status quo
3. Japan: The Expansionist Model
4. Australia: The Growing Influence and Strategic
approach
3 What are the Issues: The QUAD is not Comprehensive
a It has undefined Vision
i. It is just a mechanism without strategic mission

a The Entire focus in on Maritime without considering the Land

opportunity
i. Question: How the cooperation extends to Asia-Pacific and
Eurasian regions
b Non-compatible Alliance system
i. Their exists difference of interests among the members of
QUAD

h. Role of QUAD in Changing ;

c. Balance of Power
a It is changing the Balance of Power Equation
d. Strategic stability

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a QUAD with Extension model is influencing the

strategic stability of the region

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e. Alignments
a ASEAN approach is integrative
b QUAD is making region a zone of conflict
f. Status-Quo

b. The regional players are missing \

a. Indonesia, Singapore
2) Vision of Cooperation
a. It is making and consolidating military cooperation
3) The nature of Competition
a. Inviting China to play the Offensive/Defensive Realism

Concept:

b. The consolidation of Indo-pacific policy, an economic vision of the United States of

America.
c. The US –led plan that aims to strengthen economic partnership among participating
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countries

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Origin:

jj. It was launched in 2021, signed in may

2022 Objectives:

jjj. Counter Balance the Chinese Economic policies including RCEP

kkk. Enhance the resilience , sustainability , inclusiveness ,economic
growth of the members
lll. The get the major share with competition from Indo-Pacific policy vis-à-vis China

Pillars of IPEF

2 Supply Chain resilience

3 Clean Energy and decarburization
4 Infrastructure, Taxation and anti-corruption
5 Fair and Resilient trade
a. Members can negotiate

Members of IPEF:

4. Including India it has 13 members

a. Australia, The US, New Zealand
b. Regional Players :Malaysia, Philippines , Thailand, Vietnam
c. Shared Vision: South Korea, Brunei, Fiji

Background

2) Since the US exit from Transpacific under Trump Doctrine, the US was missing
the economic variant of Indo-pacific Policy
3) Consolidation of the US to influence Indo-Pacific Region
4) Addition of Economic Variant in already Political, Strategic variants of Indo-
Pacific Led by the US.

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Importance of IPEF

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B) Economically, it accounts 40% of the global GDP makes it the agreement of

21st century
C) Connected economy: It will add digital economic outlook, environmental standards
D) Resilient Economy: Focus to avoid economic shocks

2 In terms of Energy, With an approach of decarburization , it is important

transition towards renewable energy
3 In terms of Governance, it will develop the rule based Indo-Pacific approach

Challenges faced by IPEF

3) From Diplomacy to implementation, it will face challenge

a Novel integration approach without Taiwan and China
4) The US bargaining position in the region
a However, RCEP it has roots of Preferential market access.
5) Durability of the Project
a The US has the history of Withdrawal
6) Economic Competition with two different ideologies
a Chinese Led RCEP and the US led IPEF
7) Ambitions of the US and region are not converged

Prospects:

D) Regional , Indo-pacific regional countries will witness growth in the age of

uncertainty
E) Economic Prospects
F) Energy Prospects
G) Prospects for Governance
H) Prospects of Integration

Way Forward to mitigate the challenge

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B Include ASEAN as center of this project

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C Economic integration must not include containment approach of cold war

D Make sure , it is not part of QUAD and AUKUS mentality
E Ensure Rule based transactions and pillars of IPEF

Important Add On:

B The US’ NSS document provided the basis of IPEF: Beyond the Free Trade in
its approach of Outcompeting China
C QUAD, IPEF: Foreign Policy approaches of the US to Outcompete China
D It is Cold War Mentality : Containment of One Nation in all spheres
E Conflicts and Cooperation are parts of the New Great Game

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AUKUS: Strategic and Nuclear Security Augmentation of Indo-Pacific

Concept:

F) Tri-lateral Security Agreement

G) Strategic Policy to compliment
a. The US Policy in the region
b. Britain’s Global Act Policy
c. Australian’s Balance of Power and Technology Equipped
Strategic Stability

What is included in AUKUS?

iv. Nuclear Sub-marines to Australia

v. Transfer of Nuclear Technology

Features of AUKUS:

3) Vision of Collective Security

4) Mission of Structural Strategic Strength
5) Objectives of Containment of China and Role in Indo-Pacific
6) Strategy of Nuclear Technology and Sharp Power
7) Action Plan of Strategic Agreement to complement previous Policy

History of Nuclear Submarines

2 US: 14
3 Russia: 14
4 China: 4
5 UK: 4
6 India:2

Actors Views:
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4) Australia: Peace, Strategic stability and opportunities of states

5) The US: Vision of Democracies, Augmentation of Indo-Pacific, Evolution
of Collective Security, an element of Comprehensive Security
6) Britain: ensured security and strategic stability of the region

Reactions of China and other Players

2 China: Arms race, undermine regional peace, violation of multi-lateral security and
nuclear regimes, offensive engagement and influence in regional affairs
3 France: Stab in the back: as the previous treaty included France
4 EU commission: Emergence of Trans-national Diplomatic Crisis

Evaluation and Analysis

5) It will have negative impacts on regionalism due to like minded alliance

6) It is cold war mentality with containment and outcompeting China approach
7) Paradigm shift in the region, other players will pursue the same approach
8) US affirmative action in the region after its exit from Afghanistan
9) It will change the Balance of Power Equation
10) It is the violation of UNSC Resolution 1540
11) It is the violation of the UN Development Goals, SDGs(16) and Nuclear Free Zone
Policy
12) British is too eager to react after Brexit
13) It will start military preparedness of the smaller states like Taiwan and Korea

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Way Forward for almost every policy of Indo-Pacific including Great Power Competition :

2) Develop a free and open Indo-Pacific region as “international public goods”,

through ensuring the rule-based international order, in a comprehensive, inclusive
and transparent manner.
3) Three pillars to realize free and open Indo-Pacific:
Promotion and establishment of the rule of law, freedom of navigation, free trade,
etc.
Pursuit of economic prosperity (improving connectivity and strengthening
economic partnership including EPA/FTAs and investment treaties)
Commitment for peace and stability (capacity building on maritime law
enforcement, HA/DR cooperation
4) Develop Consociational model- a stable democratic system in deeply divided societies
that is based on power sharing between elites from different social groups.

5) It is important to establish connectivity in the region based on respect for

sovereignty and territorial integrity, consultation, good governance,
transparency, viability and sustainability
6) Maritime Domain Awareness (MDA) is necessary for Indo-Pacific security. MDA
implies effective understanding of any activity associated with the maritime
environment that could impact upon the security, safety, economy or
environment
7) Multipolarity: Security & peace and law abiding nature of the countries around
the region is crucial. This will also allow multipolarity in the region.
The smaller states in the region expect India to step up to the plate and help them
widen their options, both economically as well as militarily. India should try to
fulfill their aspirations.

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The New Great Game-The Pakistani Perspective:

Challenges and Opportunities

“When everyone is dead the Great Game is finished. Not before.”

Rudyard Kipling

Origin of the Concept: borne of the famous competition for regional control played out in the sub-
continent in the 19th Century between the British and Russian Empires.

The British Lord: Ellenborough “The Great Game" on January 12, 1830, Action: Established a new
trade route from India to Bukhara, using Turkey, Persia, and Afghanistan as a buffer against Russia to
prevent it from controlling any ports on the Persian Gulf

Reaction: Russia to Establish a Neutral Zone i.e. Afghanistan

Impacts: 1) British was involved in Four Wars i.e. Anglo-Afghan to Contain Russian Expansion towards
East

British Lost All Four Wars

d Afghanistan was accepted as Buffer Zone

Evolution of the Concept:

8) A century Later in 1979, USSR invaded Afghanistan with the same perspective

i. Reason: Geo-strategic importance of Afghanistan

Why? Afghanistan is Fulcrum of the Region

Region is Important

Geo-politically, Geo-economically, Geo-strategically

9) New Great Game

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i. Game is new

ii. Players are different

iii. Region is same

History of conflicts is there

10) Why Great Game?

i. Regions are not something by themselves

Evolution of the region

Experienced TRIALS of Political Realities

Faced Influences exercised by the Foreign Powers

Dimensions of the Game are always important

ii. Dynamics are Changing with fast pace

a Political , economic , strategic and cultural

e. World Order is Evolving with its Final Phase

f. Global Political Economy is Playing its role

g. Emergence of new regions as HEARTLAND

4) Definition of Great Game

a Originally it was Diplomatic and Political Rivalry between Russia and Britain

i Scope of the Game( Contest Remained Same)

5) Origin of “New Great Game”

a Since the Collapse of USSR in 1991

a. Due to Politico-Military and Economic Situation of Central Asia and

Caucasus

i Central Asia was considered as the region

b However, it was not limited to Central Asia only

6) Factors of New Great Game

a. Competition in influence

a. Power

Hegemony

Culture

Economy
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Military

b Geography

c Resources

i. Geostrategic

d Diplomatic influence

4) Actors involved in this New Great Game

a States

b MNCs

c Regions

d INGOs

5) Theory which Makes the Great Game-the geopolitical paradigm as ever valid

a Heartland Theory given by Halford Mackinder

i. Eurasian landmass

6) Changing Energy Dynamics and Dependency of US on Foreign Powers

7) Emergence of New Equation

a Iran and Turkey and their ties with the Central Asia

b Pakistan and India –extension of their own rivalries

8) Hence, It is Perceived that NEW GREAT GAME is Spread Towards

a Persian Gulf and

b South Asia

9) Geo-strategic Value of Regions

a The Geographical Pivots of the History

b Situated at crossroads –a strategic hub

c Hotspot of the World Trade

d Opportunity for the Infrastructural upgrade

g. Chinese March to West

h. Options for Political Leverage

a Kyrgyzstan Joined WTO

b Changes in Kazakhstan

c Resistance against Russian Political Leverage and National Oil Companies

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i. Win-Win Opportunity

j. Energy Politics

k. Region acts like a space which needs actors to fill

l. Untapped Wealth and Question of Energy Pipelines

3) New Great Game and Geo-Strategic Location of South Asia

a. 11 States of South Asia

25% Population

Market, consumer of energy

Stakes of US, China , Russia , and EU with Competing interests

iv.

b. Two Nuclear Powers

c. History of Alliance

d. History of Containment Spot

e. Afghanistan after Post US Exit

i. Political and administrative situation can impact

1. Central asia

2. South Asia

3. Middle East

f. Revival of Rising Power and Established Power Politics

g. Shadows of Russian-Ukraine Conflicts

d. New Great Game and Pakistan

a Afghanistan as a geostrategic resource is open for Russia and China

b US-India Strategic alliance since 2003 is on highest grade after US Indo

Pacific Policy

c Emergence of Like Minded Alliance in the back drop of Russia-Ukraine Crisis

d Challenged and Questioned Position of US

1. Military Clout

2. Economic Strength

3. Moral and Ethical Conduct

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e Shrinking of the economies in backdrop of lower carbon consumptions policies

f Restricted selective regulations and sanctions

1. Russia, Iran,….

g Containment of BRI by Western Powers

h External Influence can change the security dynamics of the region

1. Fact: India as US proxy and Indian Ambitions of Global Glory

2. Russia-Ukraine Crisis and Revival of Berlin Episode

3. US-China Conflict and centrality of the geography

i US Search of relevance in the region after its withdrawal from Afghanistan

j Inclusion of Iran in SCO as a permanent Member

1. Fractured Afghanistan and Iranian Influence of Competition with Saudi influence

mmm. Changes in the Great Game Equation to understand challenges and way forward

1. These Changes depends on defining factors

a US withdrawal has diminished the US Capacity to influence the region like it

did in Cold War and Post-cold war era

b Unsettled China- Pressure on BRI and CPEC

c Global Glory and Domination- the status quo ambitions of India

d Pressure of International Sanctions

e Disrupted Global Supply Chain

f West versus the East

g Economic objectives manifested in the conflicts i.e. political instabilities ,

military applications

nnn. Pakistani Perspective

1. Domestic Equation

a Polarized Society

Sectarianism, separatism , provincial animosity, political instability,

financial constraints and problems

2. Impact on Foreign Policy

a In this Backdrop of New Great Game

b Domestic Equation can push Pakistan to:

Tone Down CPEC

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Down-grade its cooperation with Eastern Players

Soften its stance on Historical Claims

Accommodate Indian Quest of Regional Leadership

Allow international access to tone down insurgent groups

Cap up its nuclear deterrence position i.e. nuclear assets

3. In this backdrop FP options are:

a Repeat Rapprochement Policy action between Global and Regional Players

Result: Shared influence

b Diplomatic activism to keep conflict away from Pakistan’s western border

c Arrange and engage MULTI NATIONAL FORCE for Afghanistan

Regional Connectivity

National Stability

Identity of Afghanistan

Development of Comprehensive Security Apparatus using SCO

d Focus on Kashmir using PERMANENT CONFLICT RESOLUTION

REGIME

e Set up REGIONAL ANTI-TERRORISM REGIME

CENTER to share information, intelligence , and supervision with

all regional countries

f Develop NEW REGIONAL and GLOBAL TRADE ALLIANCE

g Implement National Security Policy for improvement in DOMESTIC

EQUATION

4. Conclusion

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6 South Asia appears to be next ground of competition

7 Environment is created with growing influence of China and Changing FP

mode of Russia since 2014

How to write introduction of this Question

5. Start with the Quotation

a. Find the Relevant one based on the topic

6. New Great Game emerged in 1990s and continuing until the present day is multi-faceted. It
not only shifted from Mackinder’s Heartland i.e. Eurasian landmass to Persian Gulf and
South Asia but also has multifaceted dynamics covering: economic, social, cultural and
hard security. As a game it is contested by the multiple players in this geographical region.
Emergence of NEW GREAT GAME after the end of Great Game is offering multi-faceted
challenges and options for Pakistan. These challenges and Options need vibrant measures at
diplomatic and Foreign policy levels while taking domestic reforms hand in hand.

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